Decline of Europe

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Europe, which is less religious than a majority of the world, has a subreplacement level of births, is projected to have a population that is 30% less smaller by the end of the century (see: Atheism and fertility rates).[1]

In 2014, the Pew Research Forum indicated that Europe will go from 11% of the world's population to 7% of the world's population by 2050.[2]

Europe, which is less religious than a majority of the world, has a subreplacement level of births. It is projected to have a population that is 30% less smaller by the end of the century (see: Atheism and fertility rates).[3]

Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer is a prominent American political scientist and international relations scholar who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

Due to Europe's aging population which is projected to shrink and its various current and projected problems, Mearsheimer stated: “Europe doesn't matter anymore. You know, Europe is basically a giant museum.”[4]

Mearsheimer considers China to be a significant competitor to the United States in terms of balance of power geopolitics.[5] Mearsheimer has said on several occasions that the United States' foreign policy should pivot from Europe to Asia as far as it concerns as soon as possible and unfortunately the United States policy towards Ukraine before and subsequent to the war in Ukraine is delaying this pivot.[6][7][8][9][10][11]

Europe has has an inferior governmental and economic system to the United States this is causing societal and economic decline

Resources related to the decline of Europe

Review of the book Death Wish - Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent by David Harsanyi and a short description of the book:

Europe's growing Muslim immigration is increasing societal strife and decline in Europe

Due to Muslim immigration and the higher fertility rate of Muslim immigrants compared to the general native populations of Europe, many Western European nations, particularly countries such as France, Germany, the UK and Sweden, could very well have very significant Muslim populations percentage-wise by 2050 and especially by the end of the century should Jesus tarry (See also: European desecularization in the 21st century and Atheism vs. Islam).[12][13] Muslim countries are often backward, undemocratic countries and they have a history of bloody borders.[14][15][16][17] 

According to a 2107 Pew Research article on Muslim immigration to Europe:

A second, “medium” migration scenario assumes that all refugee flows will stop as of mid-2016 but that recent levels of “regular” migration to Europe will continue (i.e., migration of those who come for reasons other than seeking asylum; see note on terms below). Under these conditions, Muslims could reach 11.2% of Europe’s population in 2050.

Finally, a “high” migration scenario projects the record flow of refugees into Europe between 2014 and 2016 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition (i.e., mostly made up of Muslims) in addition to the typical annual flow of regular migrants. In this scenario, Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current share, but still considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe.[18]

Professor Philip Jenkins at Penn State University projects that by 2100, Muslims will be about 25% of Europe's population. Jenkins indicates that this figure does not take account divergent birthrates amongst Europe's various immigrant Christians.[19]

The 2019 journal article When will European Muslim population be majority and in which country? published in PSU Research Review indicates: "Among three scenarios, the most likely mid-point migration scenario identifies 13 countries where the Muslim population will be majority between years 2085 and 2215: Cyprus (in year 2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215). The 17 remaining countries will never reach majority in the next 200 years".[20][21]

According to Pew Forum, by 2030 Muslims are projected to make up 8% of Europe’s population.[22]

So many of Western Europe's future policymakers could be Muslim or at the very least be affected by its Muslim citizens.

Once countries have Muslim populations approaching 10% of their total population, they invariably have a lot of internal problems such as Islamic terrorist attacks and rioting (See: What Islam Isn't by Dr. Peter Hammond).

Right-wing anti-immigrant sentiments are growing in Europe due to Muslim immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East.[23]

Professor Eric Kaufmann says about a graph showing the correlation between the projected growth of the Muslim propulation and the rise of right-wing nationalism in a country:

Figure 1 shows an important relationship between projected Muslim population share in 2030 and support for the populist right across 16 countries in Western Europe. Having worked with IIASA World Population Program researchers who generated cohort-component projections of Europe’s Muslim population for Pew in 2011, I am confident their projections are the most accurate and rigorous available. I put this together with election and polling data for the main West European populist right parties using the highest vote share or polling result I could find. Note the striking 78 percent correlation (R2 of .61) between projected Muslim share in 2030, a measure of both the level and rate of change of the Muslim population, and the best national result each country’s populist right has attained."[24]

National Public Radio wrote about a refugee ship that arrived in a French port in 2022:

France allowed the humanitarian ship Ocean Viking to dock in the port of Toulon, after Italy's new far-right government refused it. The standoff meant the boat hovered more than two weeks in international waters, as health and sanitary conditions worsened for the 234 people on board, including 57 children.

Those on board come from countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, including Bangladesh, Eritrea, Syria, Egypt, Pakistan, Mali and Sudan.[25]

North Africa, the Middle East, Bangladesh, Eritrea, Syria, Egypt, Pakistan, Mali and Sudan are all areas of the world with a high percentage of Muslim individuals.

Politico reported in On October 28, 2022:

People will not let me sleep in front of their doors or shops, so every night, my spot changes,” said Sabahoon, a 21-year-old Afghan refugee who arrived in Belgium about a month ago. “I have no shelter, no doctor, no food.”

The desperate situation Sabahoon faces on the streets of Brussels reflects a broader crisis that is going largely unnoticed across the region. All over the EU, asylum seeker numbers have been rising this year, reaching monthly peaks unseen since the shocking refugee crisis of 2015.

Across Western Europe, processing systems are starting to struggle under the strain. “The pressure is spread over fewer countries than in 2015,” Belgian State Secretary for Asylum and Migration Nicole de Moor, who is pushing for European action, told POLITICO...

In Austria, the government is under pressure from anti-immigrant opposition politicians as states struggle to provide accommodation for the surging numbers seeking protection.

The most recent data shows that in July, asylum applications to the EU reached over 70,000 for the third successive month, similar to the refugee crisis of 2015, according to the EU Agency for Asylum.

Since then, several individual EU countries have reported even larger numbers. These come on top of the 4.31 million Ukrainian refugees who have registered in the EU since the outbreak of the war and who don’t have to go through the same asylum procedure. More Ukrainians are also likely to seek shelter in the EU this winter, as conditions deteriorate, according to a document prepared by the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.

Can anything be done before it’s too late or will Brussels only pay attention when the EU is once again in a full-blown emergency?

Despite years of trying, attempts to design a unified EU response have largely failed. Northern and Western countries are worried about the movement of migrants from the coastline states where they arrive, while these Mediterranean countries insist on a mandatory system to redistribute asylum seekers landing on their shores.

Hungary, Poland and Austria, meanwhile, staunchly oppose any kind of mandatory relocation.

When the right-wing-backed Swedish government takes over the rotating Council presidency from the Czechs at the start of next year, it is unlikely to push measures to ensure all countries take their fair share.[26]

Richard Dawkins
The New Atheist Richard Dawkins declared "Christianity may actually be our best defence against aberrant forms of religion that threaten the world".[27][28] See also: Richard Dawkins and Islam

The 2021 book The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology Is Transforming Business, Politics, and Society points out that the world is becoming more scientifically and technologically advanced at an ever-increasing rate and that many societies are struggling to adjust to the changes that these scientific/technology improvements are causing.[29][30] The book echoes the sentiments of the 1970 book Future Shock written by American futurist Alvin Toffler.

Will Europe's increasing Islamic population help it become more scientifically and technologically advanced and help it societally adjust to these changes? The New Atheist Richard Dawkins upset a lot of Muslims when he said the provocative and true statement: "All the world's Muslims have fewer Nobel Prizes than Trinity College, Cambridge. They did great things in the Middle Ages, though."[31]

The book The Irrational Atheist notes:

It’s also interesting to note that more than half of these religious wars, sixty-six in all, were waged by Islamic nations, which is rather more than might be statistically expected considering that the first war in which Islam was involved took place almost three millennia after the first war chronicled in the Encyclopedia, Akkad’s conquest of Sumer in 2325 B.C.

In light of this evidence, the fact that a specific religion is currently sparking a great deal of conflict around the globe cannot reasonably be used to indict all religious faith, especially when one considers that removing that single religion from the equation means that all of the other religious faiths combined only account for 3.35 percent of humanity’s wars.[32]

The eminent sociologist Peter L. Berger wrote about the bloody borders of many Islamic nations:

In the book which has by now become an important point of reference, The Clash of Civilizations (1996), the late Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington developed the thesis that after the demise of the Cold War conflicts would be between civilizations rather than ideologies. The thesis has been hotly discussed ever since, mostly unfavorably. I continue to have great respect for Huntington’s contributions to our understanding of the contemporary world, and indeed I co-chaired with him a project on globalization and culture. But his thesis on civilizational conflicts never persuaded me. If the thesis has plausibility at all, it is with reference to the Muslim world. In an article in Foreign Affairs (1993), in which Huntington adumbrated the thesis of the book, he wrote the much quoted sentence “Islam has bloody borders.” While this sentence too does not describe Islam at all times and in all places, it does fit many situations in which Islam confronts other religious communities.

The sentence could serve as a succinct summary of a recent book by Eliza Griswold, The Tenth Parallel: Dispatches from the Fault Line Between Christianity and Islam (2010). Griswold, an inveterate journalist and a lively writer, traveled through some of the very bloody borders between the two faiths in Africa and Asia. On reading her book, I had to admire her courage. I also had to think of another book, this one by P.J. O’Rourke some years ago, entitled Holidays in Hell. (I can only hope that, in between her forays into some of the planet’s choicest hellholes, Griswold finds time for holidays in more pleasant places.)[33]

See also



  1. Population trends 1950 – 2100: globally and within Europe
  2. 10 projections for the global population in 2050 By Rakesh Kochhar, Pew Research Forum, February 3, 2014
  3. Population trends 1950 – 2100: globally and within Europe
  4. John J. Mearsheimer > Quotes
  5. 'The US won't tolerate China as peer competitor', DW News, 2021
  6. U.S. engagement with China a 'strategic blunder': Mearsheimer
  7. The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war A lecture by John J. Mearsheimer
  8. John Mearsheimer On Who Gains The Most From The Ukraine-Russia War & What Could End Putin's Assault
  10. South East Asia-US Foreign Policy, John Mearsheimer
  11. 'The US won't tolerate China as peer competitor', DW News, 2021
  12. Europe’s Growing Muslim Population, Pew Research, 2017
  13. When will European Muslim population be majority and in which country?, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan, PSU Research Review, ISSN: 2399-1747, Open Access. Article publication date: 28 August 2019 Reprints & Permissions, Issue publication date: 28 August 2019
  14. Islamic democracy: Corrupt and undemocratic, Hurriyet Daily News
  15. Why Are There No Arab Democracies? by Larry Diamond, Journal of Democracy, ISSUE DATE, January 2010, VOLUME 21, ISSUE 1, PAGE NUMBERS 93-104 (The Arab countries in the Middle East are Islamic countries)
  16. Bloody Borders by Peter L. Berger
  17. The Irrational Atheist - Abbreviated free copy on PDF
  18. Europe’s Growing Muslim Population, Pew Research, 2017
  19. Philip Jenkins, Demographics, Religion, and the Future of Europe, Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 533, summer 2006
  20. Europe’s Growing Muslim Population, Pew Research, 2017
  21. When will European Muslim population be majority and in which country?, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan, PSU Research Review, ISSN: 2399-1747, Open Access. Article publication date: 28 August 2019 Reprints & Permissions, Issue publication date: 28 August 2019
  22. 5 facts about the Muslim population in Europe by Conrad Hackett, Pew Forum, November 17, 2015
  23. Why the fear of Islamization is driving populist right support – and what to do about it, Eric Kaufmann
  24. Why the fear of Islamization is driving populist right support – and what to do about it, Eric Kaufmann
  25. France accepts a migrant rescue ship as relations sour with Italy, NPR, 2022
  26. The invisible migration crisis on von der Leyen’s doorstep, Politico, 2022
  27. Richard Dawkins says Christianity is world's best defence against radical Islam, Christianity Today, January 2016
  28. Professional Atheist Dawkins Says Christianity ‘Bulwark Against Something Worse’, by Thomas D. Williams, Ph.D, Breitbart News Network, Jan 12, 2016
  29. 'The Exponential Age' by Azeem Azhar: The misunderstood dynamic behind tech’s impact on business and society, website
  30. The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology Is Transforming Business, Politics, and Society by Azeem Azhar, Blackstone Publishing, September 07, 2021
  31. Richard Dawkins' tweets on Islam are as rational as the rants of an extremist Muslim cleric by Nesrine Malik, The Guardian, 2013
  32. - Abbreviated free copy on the book The Irrational Atheist PDF
  33. Bloody Borders by Peter L. Berger