User:Conservative/War in Ukraine
Issues:
1. Trump has a real estate person as a negotiator for Ukraine/Gaza because he doesn't trust the neocons in his administration. But the real estate person does not understand the nuances, history and cultures of the countries involved.
2. The Duran and John Mearsheimer understand the Russians sense of grievance (Minsk Accords), how Russians feel about NATO expansion and the Russians sense of wanting to be one of the big men on campus on the international school yard. Many Westerners don't know what the Russian perspective is related to the war in Ukraine. Alternatively, some Westerners know what the Russians' perspective is, but patently reject it and think it is wrongheaded/ridiculous.
3. The Duran and Mearsheimer don't seem to understand economics and the extent of the economic problems of the Russian economy.
4. Trump loves to win and is very assertive, but he can be reasonable to. He also has the New York City attitude (The idea that with enough drive, hard work, and determination, anything is possible). Will Trump break the "emergency glass" of secondary sanctions on Russia? If Trump does break the emergency glass of secondary sanctions on Russia, will they work enough to pressure Russia into a peace plan? Even if Trump did impose secondary sanctions, to what extent would the EU participate (Would Trump give special exemptions to European countries)? "By contrast, secondary tariffs are relatively untested as a phenomenon. Last week, Trump also imposed a 25 percent secondary tariff on US imports from any country buying oil and gas from Venezuela."[1]
The Chinese economy has a lot of problems so secondary sanctions might work against Russia. China may decide not to buy Russian oil and so may the Indians. That might really hurt the Russians economically and cause them to go to the peace table.
5. If Trump does impose secondary sanctions and it causes an oil price spike, how fast can Americans ramp up oil production to drive oil prices down? "U.S. shale oil producers can ramp up production relatively quickly, with shale wells capable of being drilled and brought online within months, and some industry reports suggest a potential for significant production increases in the coming years."[2]
User: Conservative forecast: Russia will not cooperate with the peace process due to it having some progress on the battlefield. Trump will impose secondary sanctions on Russia and then incentivize American oil production more fully. Putin will bend the knee to Trump and come to the peace table!