United States Presidential Election, 2008

The 2008 United States Presidential Election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The primary season for both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party officialy begins on January 14, 2008 with the Iowa Caucuses and (as of March 16, 2007) ends on March 4, 2008. The 2008 election cycle has seen a major shift to the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.

Battleground States

The United States has become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:

State, margin of victory (party that won the state in 2004)

1. Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)
2. Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)
3. New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)
4. New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)
5. Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)
6. Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)
7. Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)
8. Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)
9. Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)

The 2006 election landslide losses for Republicans in the northeast and northeastern Midwest, including Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, indicate that the outcome in the northeastern states and the northeast Midwestern states is no longer contestable. So New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania can be removed from the list. That leaves only five states in play in 2008:

1. Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)
2. Iowa, 0.67% (Repub) (7 electoral votes)
3. New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
4. Nevada, 2.59% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
5. Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)

If the same party wins these states as in 2004, then the Democrats would win the electoral college by 272-266.

Republican Strategy

The Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa. The outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008.

The inescapable conclusion is that the Republican nominee must win Wisconsin and hold Iowa in order to win the general election.

Declared Republican Party Candidates

Senator Sam Brownback, Kansas

John H. Cox

Former Governor Jim Gilmore, Virginia

Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, New York City

Former Governor Mike Huckabee, Arkansas

Representative Duncan Hunter, California 52nd

Senator John McCain, Arizona

Representative Ron Paul, Texas 14th

Former Governor Mitt Romney, Massachusetts

Michael Charles Smith

Representative Tom Tancredo, Colorado 6th

Former Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson, Wisconsin

Republican Party Members with Presidential Exploratory Committees

Former Senator Fred Thompson, Tennessee

Democratic Strategy

As usual, the best strategy for Democrats is a hot topic for debate among members of that party and independent pundits. Daily Kos can occasionally provide arguments on the strategy that should be pursued by Democrats, although most posts there are simply rants against the Republicans or Democrats deemed insufficiently liberal, which led Barack Obama to say in 2006 that he found the site "predictable." A majority of Democrats are confident that the cratering popularity of President George W. Bush and particularly Operation Iraqi Freedom puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008, to the extent it may even be their race to lose.

However, evaluating the race in Electoral College terms forces caution upon the Democrats. Between the Presidential election of 2000 and the Presidential election of 2004, only three states budged from one party to the other: New Mexico (from Democratic to Republican), Iowa (from Democratic to Republican) and New Hampshire (from Republican to Democratic). The American people would seem to be not only strongly divided, but in the vast majority of states, faithful over a period of years to their chosen parties. Not even the September 11, 2001 attacks could persuade the people of New York to vote Republican, for example, and it is highly unlikely that the depopulation of New Orleans will be considered a good reason for the majority of voters in Louisiana to become Democrats. The phrase Second Coming Republicans (or Democrats) takes on new meaning in light of the relative lack of party-switching in response to these events.

Had all three of the above swing states voted Democratic in 2000, Al Gore would be President today, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for. This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections -- particularly if the Republicans nominate Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or another candidate associated with one of those states.

Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person: John F. Kennedy, in the Presidential election of 1960. If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year is Bill Richardson, who is cast somewhat against type as a member of the National Rifle Association and also has the distinction of being from one of the three swing states cited above. In strong second place would probably be John Edwards, but it needs to be said that the Democrat who can carry Edwards' home state of North Carolina in a Presidential election probably hasn't been born yet. Lyndon B. Johnson was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates (though probably not Gravel or Kucinich) will handily defeat a generic Republican candidate.

Declared Democratic Party Candidates

Senator Joe Biden, Delaware

Senator Hillary Clinton, New York

Senator Chris Dodd, Connecticut

Former Senator John Edwards, North Carolina

Former Senator Mike Gravel, Alaska

Representative Dennis Kucinich, Ohio 10th

Senator Barack Obama, Illinois

Governor Bill Richardson, New Mexico