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In one of his videos Philip E. Tetlock mentions that great forecasters keep track of their forecast results. So when they make incorrect predictions they learn from their mistakes. | In one of his videos Philip E. Tetlock mentions that great forecasters keep track of their forecast results. So when they make incorrect predictions they learn from their mistakes. | ||
| − | A great question to ask a narcissist who deludedly thinks he is a great forecaster is: "Can you tell me any times you made a mistake in regards to your predictions about the future? Since narcissists are loathe to admit their mistakes to themselves or others due to their fragile egos, you will completely silence the narcissist. | + | A great question to ask a narcissist who deludedly thinks he is a great forecaster is: "Can you tell me any times you made a mistake in regards to your predictions about the future?" |
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| + | Since narcissists are loathe to admit their mistakes to themselves or others due to their fragile egos, you will completely silence the narcissist. | ||
== See also == | == See also == | ||
Revision as of 05:21, February 25, 2024
A forecast is a statement of expected future occurrences such as events or trends. Investopedia defines forecasting as "a technique that uses historical data as inputs to make informed estimates that are predictive in determining the direction of future trends."[2]
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a 2016 book about forecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
The book reports on a wealth of data coming from the The Good Judgment Project (started in 2011) which indicates that well-chosen selected amateur forecasters who demonstrate their ability to accurately forecast are often more accurate than subject matter experts.[3]
The Harvard Business Review likened the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction to the book How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg.[4]
Narcissism is excessive love of oneself. The word is based on the Greek myth of Narcissus, who resisted the advances of a nymph and was consequently made to fall in love with his own reflection. In psychology, extreme narcissism is a symptom of Narcissistic personality disorder, in which a person overestimates his own abilities and attractiveness, at the expense of concern for the needs and feelings of others.
Question: Why are narcissists such terrible forecasters?
Contents
- 1 Personal characteristics of superforecasters according to the research from the Good Judgment Project
- 2 Why narcissists are terrible forecasters who can't improve their forecasting ability
- 3 A great question to ask a narcissist who deludedly thinks he is a great forecaster
- 4 See also
- 5 External links
- 6 References
Personal characteristics of superforecasters according to the research from the Good Judgment Project
See also: Forecasting
Characteristics of "superforecasters":[5][6]
- Temperament: Cautious (Many things are uncertain), Humble (Reality is infinitely complex), Non-Determinist.
- Cognition: Open-Minded (Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected), Intelligent, Curious (Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges), Reflective (Introspective and self-critical), Numerate (Comfortable with numbers).
- Analytical: Pragmatic (Not wedded to any idea or agenda), Dragonfly-Eyed (Value diverse views and synthesize them into your own), Probabilistic, Thoughtful Updaters (When facts change, they change their minds), Intuitive Psychologist (Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive biases and emotional biases).
- Work Ethic: Growth Mindset, Grit (Determined to keep at it however long it takes)
Why narcissists are terrible forecasters who can't improve their forecasting ability
See also: 12 things narcissists hate that make them so irritating to so many people
People with narcissistic personality disorder are loathe to admit their narcissism because there is nothing wrong with them because they are perfect! So although extreme narcissism can be addressed and solved in their lives, they usually don't seek solutions to their narcissism.
Below are some reasons that narcissists make terrible forecasters who can't improve their forecasting ability:
1. Great forecasters are humble and cautious.
Narcissists are egotistical.
2. Forecasting involves a world of facts and opinions that have to be evaluated and given their due weight. Great forecasters are analytical.
Narcissists hate it when people speak factually and logically. Because people with narcissism are so in love with themselves, they have a distorted view of the world filled with their narrow pet views/theories/ideologies which they are loathe to admit are wrong. And when people tell them that they are wrong about anything, especially their pet views/theories/ideologies, they get very mad!
3. Great forecasters are openminded and intellectually curious.
Narcissists will drone on and on with great emotion and hysteria about their "truths" which are not truths at all.
And when people diplomatically tell them "you are certainly entitled to your opinion" or "I'm sorry you feel that way", they get hopping mad because their "truths" are absolute truths!
Narcissists hate creativity which is a personality trait associated with openness.[7] Because they have such a narrow vision of the world that is "me, me, me" oriented, they hate creative people who think outside their narrow, self-imposed box of "me oriented fantasy" that bears no relation to the real world.
Analysis often involves embracing new analytical tools to evaluate data. Narcissists are closedminded.
4. Great forecasters are reflective (Introspective and self-critical).
Narcissists are egotists who hate to be wrong and are loathe to admit error.
5. Great forecasters are dragonfly-eyed (Value diverse views and synthesize them into your own)
Narcissists care deeply about their wrongheaded pet views/theories/ideologies.
6. Great forecasters are pragmatic (Not wedded to any idea or agenda).
Narcissists are wedded to their pet views/theories.
7. Great forecasters are thoughtful updaters (When facts change, they change their minds).
Narcissists are dogmatic.
8. Great forecasters are intuitive psychologists (Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive biases and emotional biases).
Narcissists lack self-awareness.
9. Great forecasters have a great work ethic and will do the research necessary to make good predictions.
Narcissists are self-entitled people. Self-entitled people aren't big when it comes to having a super strong work ethic.
A great question to ask a narcissist who deludedly thinks he is a great forecaster
In one of his videos Philip E. Tetlock mentions that great forecasters keep track of their forecast results. So when they make incorrect predictions they learn from their mistakes.
A great question to ask a narcissist who deludedly thinks he is a great forecaster is: "Can you tell me any times you made a mistake in regards to your predictions about the future?"
Since narcissists are loathe to admit their mistakes to themselves or others due to their fragile egos, you will completely silence the narcissist.
See also
Book:
- Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock
External links
- Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company’s Judgment by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock
References
- ↑ "Unclouded vision". The Economist. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
- ↑ Forecasting: What It Is, How It’s Used in Business and Investing
- ↑ "Unclouded vision". The Economist. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
- ↑ Frick, Walter. "Question Certainty". Harvard Business Review. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
- ↑ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary
- ↑ Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills, Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock
- ↑ Openness to experience, plasticity, and creativity: Exploring lower-order, high-order, and interactive effects, Journal of Research in Personality, Volume 43, Issue 6, December 2009, Pages 1087-1090
