Essay: China's decline and some Roman Empire decline parallels

The flag of China.

Questions: Is modern China in decline and are there many key parallels with the decline of the Roman Empire?

Previously, I wrote the essay at: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

This essay is a continuation of some of the concepts in that essay.

Roman aqueduct

"The decline of both the Roman Empire and Han China (and subsequent dynasties) share striking similarities, including internal issues like political corruption, economic problems, and external pressures from nomadic groups, ultimately leading to fragmentation and instability."^[1]

Internal Issues similarities:

1. Political Corruption and Instability:

2. Economic Problems

3. Military Overextension and Internal Conflicts

4. Social Unrest

5. Population decline

External similarity:

• Invasions due to overextension as far as territory to defend

Roman Empire and plagues:

"The Roman Empire's decline was significantly impacted by several major plagues, most notably the "Antonine Plague" which struck around 165 AD, considered one of the first recorded pandemics, and is often linked to the beginning of the empire's decline as it decimated the population and weakened the military, leaving the empire vulnerable to barbarian invasions; other plagues like the "Plague of Cyprian" further contributed to the empire's instability and eventual fall by causing widespread death and economic disruption".^[2]

Chinas and modern plagues:

• The 2020 coronavirus pandemic started in China in December of 2019.^[3]

• 2002–2004 SARS outbreak started in China

• Manchurian plague (1910–1911)

• China a hotbed for pandemics historically, experts say, Indo Pacific Defense Forum, 2020

Chinese elite fleeing to the USA:

See also: Top 12 reasons why people are flocking to the USA and leaving the corrupt, authoritarian countries of China and Russia

"What of the new, 21st-century Chinese elite? Unnoticed, many “princelings” — progenies of the 500 families that founded the PRC in 1949 — have quietly left with their ill-begotten gains, and settled in exile, mostly in the Los Angeles area. This is not a sign of confidence in the CCP regime when the offspring of its founders have forsaken it." - Communist China: A Long March to Collapse? (Only those ignorant of its history think Communist China will survive forever. It won’t) by Dimon Liu. Center for European Policy Analysis, July 15, 2024

Roman Empire elite fleeing to beyond the Roman Empire's borders:

"As the Western Roman Empire faced decline and collapse, some Roman elites did indeed flee, seeking refuge in the countryside or migrating eastward, while others remained in the new Gothic kingdom."^[4]

See also: Skepticism about China remaining a global power and It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

Articles:

• The Reason China Can’t Stop Its Decline, Foreign Policy, 2024

• The End of China As a Great Power: Population Collapse, 2024

• The Chinese century is already over, Japan Times, 2023

China's key economic problems:

See also: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

China's economy is facing a number of serious challenges, including:

• Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present): A real estate crisis has left developers in ruins, with unsold apartments, failed investments, and huge debts. The property crisis has also affected consumer confidence and local governments' ability to generate funds.

• Slowing growth: China's economy is slowing down, with GDP growth falling behind the government's target. Measures of consumption, factory output, and investment have all slowed more than expected.

• Unemployment: Unemployment is rising, with the urban youth unemployment rate reaching 17.1% in July 2024. See: Youth unemployment in China

• China's Massive Debt: China's debt hangover is a result of years of inefficient stimulus spending. "Since 2021, the debt-to-GDP has climbed by almost 30 percentage points to 310% of GDP in the second quarter of 2024 — and is set to climb further to 312% by the end of this year, according to Morgan Stanley." (China Economy: China’s local government debt problems are a hidden drag on economic growth, 2024).

• Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence is sagging, with consumers becoming more frugal.

• Aging population: China's population is aging rapidly.

• Protectionism: President Xi Jinping has provoked a protectionist response from the United States.

Article:

• Communist China: A Long March to Collapse? (Only those ignorant of its history think Communist China will survive forever. It won’t) by Dimon Liu Center for European Policy Analysis, July 15, 2024

Videos:

• China's COLLAPSE Is Closer Than You Think, video, 2024, Military Show
• Don't Be Surprised by China's Collapse, 2024
• Mutiny in China – A Country on the Edge of Collapse, video, 2024, Military Show
• What Will Happen When China Collapses?, 2023

The Chinese Communist Party, which enforces state atheism, could lose power if China continues its downward path in terms of economic strength and lose its power over the Chinese people (See: Scenario of a collapse of the CCP, Taipei Times, 2023)

Xi Jinping is the current General Secretary of the Communist Party of China which requires that all their members be atheists.^[5] See: China and atheism and Atheism and communism

"The underpinnings of China’s growth seem fragile from historical and analytical perspectives. Even if no crises materialize, unfavorable demographics, high debt levels, and an inefficient financial system will constrain China’s growth."^[6]

Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?

Question: Are Chinese vases less fragile than Xi Jinping's inept leadership?

"Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary." - Donald Trump^[7]

See:

*Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time, Reuters, 2024

*China Has Limited Firepower to Counter U.S. Tariffs, Wall Street Journal, 2025

Articles:

• Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time, Reuters, 2024
• China Has Limited Firepower to Counter U.S. Tariffs, Wall Street Journal, 2025

See also: The U.S. Navy is the most powerful navy in the world

Colonel Douglas MacGregor said about China in the video Why China's Navy is a JOKE: "China has huge problems just holding itself together. So I think we should set China aside and understand that."^[8]

U.S. Colonel Douglas Macgregor

See: How long will the American civilization last? Strong reasons it could be a very long time

• Skepticism about China remaining a global power

• It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

• Decline of China

• The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China

• Communist China’s quixotic quest to innovate: A statist economy can’t make creativity greatly blossom

• Donald Trump, who is favored to win the 2024 presidential election, wants to hammer China with high tariffs

• The chance that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining

• China has a labor productivity rate that is a WHOLE LOT LOWER than the labor productivity rate of the USA

• China's promotion of the transexual agenda in the USA

• Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?

• Russia's decline and some Roman Empire decline parallels
• The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

• User:Conservative's essays

• CHINA AND ROME: HOW DO THEY COMPARE?. Howard Spodek. The World's History. 2nd ed. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, Inc., 2001.