Essay: The chance that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining

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Please read: Runner-Up: China May Have to Settle for Second Place Behind America, Newsweek, 2025

China is no longer set to eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.

That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.”

Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.[1]

See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

In addition, please see:

*Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

*Chinese stock markets crisis (Since 2021, China’s stock markets have lost about $7 trillion in value.[2])

*Youth unemployment in China
In January 2024, Chinese equities were mired in a $6 trillion-plus bear-market rout.[3]

It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economic prospects.

*Japan's Recession Was Bad. China's Will Be So Much Worse.

*China 'had 20 plates spinning', and they are all crashing right now, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass

For more information, please see: Skepticism about China remaining a global power



Please read: China's Economy Has Peaked. Can Beijing Redefine its Goals?, September 2024

On October 23, 2023, Bloomberg News indicated:

“ An unlikely geopolitical subplot of 2023 is the emerging view that China’s economy isn’t going to overtake the US after all.

The latest entry into the debate came from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who last week published a blog post titled, “Can China Catch Up With Greece?”

...The reasons are well-known: an aging population, diminishing returns from China’s famed investment-driven growth model, heavy-handed state intervention, limitations to technological know-how and a real estate bust that has yet to be worked through.

The arithmetic isn’t in China’s favor. The Fed researchers used a working assumption that Xi’s income goal is benchmarked by “Advanced Economies” as classified by the International Monetary Fund. This group of 32 economies had 2022 per capita incomes ranging from $36,900 at the bottom (Greece) to $127,600 at the top (Singapore), measured at purchasing power parity.

The researchers used “mid-level” as beginning at the 25th percentile of this group, which equates to a per capita income of $49,300. China’s per capita income of $21,400 places it just above the 60th percentile of the global income distribution, but, as calculated by Clark and Higgins, the world’s No. 2 economy is a long way off meeting their middle income threshold. They say per capita income would need to rise by a factor of 2.3, corresponding to an average growth rate of 6.6% to reach the threshold by 2035. Annual income growth would have to be 4.3% to match the current level in Greece by that year...

“Of the forty-three countries that had reached China’s current income level by 2009,” they wrote, “not one managed to achieve the growth rate needed to push China to the Advanced Economy 25th percentile over the subsequent thirteen years.”

...Bloomberg Economics in September downshifted its view on China’s growth potential and cautioned that it’s no longer likely to become the world’s biggest economy soon, or ever on any consistent basis. Confirmation of the contrasting fortunes between the world’s big two economies should come this week. Official gross domestic product data due on Thursday is expected to show the US economy is booming, growing by 4.3% in the third quarter, a long way away from the recession that most observers had expected by now.[4]

”

On January 25, 2024, Bloomberg News published the article US Extends Lead Over China in Race for World’s Biggest Economy which stated:

“ The US has pulled further ahead of China in the race for world’s biggest economy, thanks in part to a vibrant American consumer.

US gross domestic product rose 6.3% in nominal terms — that is, unadjusted for inflation — last year, outpacing China’s 4.6% gain. While some of the outperformance reflected America’s elevated price increases, the 2023 outturn underscores a broader point: The US economy is emerging from the pandemic period in a better place than China’s.

“It is a striking turn of fortunes,” said Eswar Prasad, who once led the International Monetary Fund’s China team and is now at Cornell University. “The strong performance of the US economy, in tandem with all the short-term and long-term headwinds the Chinese economy is facing, renders it a less obvious proposition that China’s GDP will someday overtake that of the US.”

The economic outperformance is reflected in the respective countries’ stock markets. US shares have hit all-time highs this week, while Chinese equities are mired in a $6 trillion-plus bear-market rout...

GDP data released on Thursday showed the US economy ended the year with a bang, growing 3.3% in real, inflation-adjusted terms in the fourth quarter after expanding 4.9% in the third. Inflation is on its way back down to the Fed’s 2% target and fears of a recession are fading.

China, by contrast, is struggling under the weight of a years-long real estate bust and its worst streak of deflation in some 25 years. Exports — once a critical pillar of growth — declined in 2023, joblessness among young people has soared and local governments are saddled with too much debt.[5]

”

2025: USA Total Factor Productivity (TFP) vs. China's Total Factor Productivity (TFP) - Implications on USA vs. China economic competition

The October 20, 2025 article China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity​ indicates "The striking conclusion is that China has stopped closing the productivity gap with the global leaders under Xi Jinping and is instead now dropping further behind. The weakness of productivity growth in turn means that economic growth is being powered almost entirely by investment, despite diminishing returns and escalating debt."

China: "Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is notoriously difficult to measure. But many measures are all saying the same thing: rapid and deep deceleration."[1]

USA: "This marks two consecutive years of positive and reasonably solid TFP growth after a period of weakness (e.g., a -1.0% decline in 2022). Recent years (2023–2025) show a pickup relative to the 2010s slowdown, though not yet at levels seen during major tech-driven booms (e.g., late 1990s)."[2]

USA vs. China economic competion implications: "The US holds a structural edge in productivity-driven growth, making sustained outperformance more likely in the medium term, while China risks prolonged slowdown unless reforms boost efficiency meaningfully."[3]

Implications for US-China Economic Competition

Your assessment holds: the US's steadier TFP growth supports medium-term outperformance, as productivity is the "residual" driver of GDP beyond labor and capital inputs—accounting for up to 40-50% of long-term growth in advanced economies per growth accounting frameworks. China's TFP slowdown exacerbates challenges like an aging population (working-age decline of 0.5-1% annually), high debt (over 300% of GDP), and a property sector drag, limiting its ability to sustain 5%+ GDP growth without reforms. This bolsters the rationale for US policies like those in the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS25), which emphasize "rebalancing" through tariffs (e.g., on EVs and tech) and tech curbs (e.g., export controls on semiconductors) to exploit efficiency gaps. These measures aim to protect US leads in high-value sectors like AI and biotech, where TFP spillovers are highest, while slowing China's catch-up.

Economically, this edge could widen the US-China GDP gap: China's economy is currently ~64% of the US in nominal terms (down from 77% in 2021), per IMF and World Bank data. If US TFP sustains 1%+ growth amid an AI boom, it could add 0.4-0.8% to annual GDP via productivity gains, while China's TFP at 2% (optimistic) struggles against headwinds. Geopolitically, it reinforces US leverage in alliances (e.g., AUKUS, QUAD) and supply chains, pressuring China toward concessions in trade talks (as seen in the fragile 2025 détente).

When Will China Cease to Be a Serious Economic Competitor?

China won't "cease" as a competitor outright—it's already the world's top manufacturer (28% global share) and exporter ($3.6T in 2025), with strengths in EVs, renewables, and mid-tech goods. However, projections suggest its relative ascent plateaus or reverses in the 2030s, shifting the balance toward US dominance:

Short-term (2026-2030): China grows at 4.5-4.8% annually (Goldman Sachs, Citi), outpacing the US's 2-2.2% (RSQE, J.P. Morgan), but tariffs and tech restrictions could shave 0.5-2% off China's GDP. No surpassing the US; gap stabilizes at $10-12T.

Medium-term (2030s): Optimistic forecasts (e.g., Justin Lin Yifu) see China overtaking US GDP by 2030-2035 at market exchange rates, assuming 5% growth and reforms. But pessimistic views (CEBR, Bloomberg) delay it to 2040s or argue it never happens, with China peaking at 80-90% of US GDP before demographics (population decline of 10M/year by 2035) and TFP stagnation pull it back. By 2057, the US could reclaim the top spot (CEBR), as China's growth slows to 2-3% (IMF, Lowy Institute).

Long-term (2040+): China plateaus as a "middle-income trap" risk (per capita GDP ~$12K vs. US $80K+), with TFP growth at 1-2% max. India overtakes both by 2081 (CEBR). China remains a peer competitor in trade and tech but loses "structural edge" in innovation-driven growth.

Plateauing likely occurs around 2035-2040, when China's growth dips below 3% without deep reforms (e.g., market liberalization, R&D boosts to 3% of GDP). This assumes no major shocks like escalation in US tariffs (potentially reducing China's growth by 1-2%) or global recessions.

Strength of TFP as an Indicator in US-China Competition:

TFP is a strong, foundational indicator—perhaps the strongest for long-term rivalry—as it captures efficiency, innovation, and institutional quality beyond raw inputs. It's the "hallmark" of sustainable growth (per Xi Jinping), explaining 30-50% of GDP differences between nations (World Bank, Brookings). For US-China:

High relevance: China's TFP must rise to close the 4-5x productivity gap (US worker output ~$140K vs. China's $30K). Low TFP signals inefficiencies (e.g., state subsidies distorting markets, per Harvard studies), while US TFP reflects competitive advantages in tech (AI adds 0.5-1% to growth). TFP divergence directly fuels US leads in NSS25 priorities like semiconductors (US TFP 3%+ in IT vs. China's 1-2%).

Limitations: It's not perfect—measurement debates (e.g., Penn revisions flip China from "declining" to "surging") and it ignores non-economic factors (military, soft power). Short-term fluctuations (e.g., US post-COVID surge) can mislead, and TFP ignores inequality or environmental costs.

Overall strength: 8/10 as a predictor. Substantiated by data: economies with sustained TFP >2% (like US in 1990s IT boom) outperform; China's post-2010 TFP drop correlates with slowed catch-up. If China's TFP stays below 2.5%, it solidifies US medium-term dominance.

For deeper reforms, China could boost TFP via its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), focusing on AI and R&D (up to 2.8% of GDP in 2025). Without them, the US's edge persists.

China's major economic crisis are signs of major deflationary pressures

According to Investopedia, "Deflation is not normally bad for an economy, except when it occurs in reaction to previous over-inflation."[6] Unfortunately for China, it has economic bubbles that are bursting in relation to its real estate and stock markets which is causing much economic hardship to many Chinese. Both of these markets had values that were highly inflated relative to their actual economic value. The Empower website notes that deflation "can lead consumers to spend less now, in part because they expect prices to continue to fall; it can push businesses to lower wages or lay off employees to maintain profit levels; and it makes existing debt more expensive for many borrowers.[7]

Presently, communist China is facing multiple crisis with the three major crisis below being signs of growing deflationary pressures on their economy:

Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

Map of China

See also: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

On February 6, 2023, Yahoo Finance said concerning the Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present):

“ China's overreliance on real estate has sent its economy tumbling toward 2008-era financial conditions, Kyle Bass told CNBC on Tuesday.

"This is just like the US financial crisis on steroids," the Hayman Capital founder said. "They have three and a half times more banking leverage than we did going into the crisis. And they've only been at this banking thing for a couple of decades."

The years of double-digit growth China enjoyed prior to the pandemic were made possible by an unregulated real estate market, Bass noted, which leaned too heavily on debt to expand.

With defaults now plaguing the industry, this spells massive trouble for the country's broader economy. The real estate sector makes up around a quarter of the country's GDP and 70% of household wealth.

"The basic architecture of the Chinese economy is broken," Bass summarized.[9]

”

Articles and videos: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

Videos:

It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

China faces a number of serious intractable problems. A number of leading geopolitical/economic analysts are pessimistic about China's remaining a global power and that China has peaked economically and/or will decline economically (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

See also: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

China faces a number of serious intractable problems. A number of leading geopolitical/economic analysts are pessimistic about China's remaining a global power and that China has peaked economically and/or will decline economically (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

The company China Beige Book International describes its company thusly:

“ Reliable data on China’s economy are notoriously difficult to come by. Official Chinese government figures exist, but lack transparency and credibility, while the few private indicators that exist are far too limited in size and scope for strategic planning.

We founded China Beige Book International in 2010 to help institutional investors and corporate CEOs navigate China’s notoriously black box economy. Today we operate the largest private in-country data-collection network ever developed to track the Chinese marketplace, gathering real-time economic data from thousands of firms across all of China’s regions, sectors, and 34 discrete industries.

Our flagship platform provides independent data and in-depth analysis on every key component of China’s diverse economy—from growth dynamics to labor market and inflation trends to the world’s only tracker of the credit environment and shadow banking.[10]

”

Due to China's ongoing real estate crisis, there have been many sensationalist doom and gloom forecasts about China's future economic prospects. On the other hand, China's Beige Book International has been very judicious and measured in its economic forecasts. The company previously argued that China's economy hasn't peaked, but it no longer argues this.

In October 2023, Leland Miller, who is the CEO of China Beige Book International, now argues that we are in a new paradigm about China's future economy due to structural problems and "Right now we are in a period where everything is looking pretty bad."[11]

Japan experienced economic malaise from the 1990s to 2010s (see: Japan's lost decades - 1990s to 2010s).

On October 19, 2023, Reuters reported:

“ China’s real estate market is in decline. Debt deflation hangs in the air. The country’s workforce is shrinking and GDP growth is trending downwards. No wonder the International Monetary Fund at its recent shindig in Marrakech warned of slowing economic growth in the People’s Republic, raising the prospect of “Japanisation” – the prolonged economic and financial malaise that afflicted its once high-flying neighbour after an asset bubble imploded three decades ago. The trouble is that China’s economic imbalances are far worse than Japan’s in 1990. And that’s before considering the ruinous economic consequences of President Xi Jinping’s autocratic rule.[12] ”

And while Japan's long prolonged financial malaise was bad, China's will likely be much worse (See: Japan's Recession Was Bad. China's Will Be So Much Worse).

China has a labor productivity rate that is a WHOLE LOT LOWER than the labor productivity rate of the USA

See also: China has a labor productivity rate that is a WHOLE LOT LOWER than the labor productivity rate of the USA

Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption. As an economy's labor productivity grows, it produces more goods and services for the same amount of relative work. This increase in output makes it possible to consume more of the goods and services for an increasingly reasonable price."[13]

According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country."[14]

Investopedia indicates: "Education tends to raise productivity and creativity, as well as stimulate entrepreneurship and technological breakthroughs. All of these factors lead to greater output and economic growth."[15]

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development states concerning labor productivity: "Labour productivity is a key precondition for high growth of output, employment and wages and central to long-term growth in living standards."[16]

Michael Beckley is an associate professor of political science at Tufts University and a Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute Beckley published the 2018 book Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower.

A Rand Corporation review of Beckley's book Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower indicates:

“ Beckley adduces an impressive amount and diversity of evidence in support of his argument. U.S. workers, for example, “generate roughly seven times the output of Chinese workers on average.” China's total factor productivity growth rate, meanwhile, “has actually turned negative in recent years, meaning that China is producing less output per unit of input each year,” and “roughly one-third of China's industrial production [goes] to waste.”[17] ”

The Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions article Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China’s Growth indicates: "The share of uneducated workers in China's labor force is larger than that of virtually all middle-income countries. According to census data, there are roughly 500 million people in China between the ages of 18 and 65 without a high school degree."[18]

Investopedia indicates: "Education tends to raise productivity and creativity, as well as stimulate entrepreneurship and technological breakthroughs. All of these factors lead to greater output and economic growth."[19]

China's labor productivity growth from 1953 to 2023.[20]

Why China's productivity rate has stalled to about 1% a year

The 2023 article What Explains China’s Economic Slowdown? published by EconoFact indicates:

“ Since 2007, China’s productivity growth has stalled at just about 1 percent per year. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009, which originated from the large-scale default of subprime mortgages in the US housing market, shook China's confidence in the Western-style financial system and may have served as a catalyst for the resurgence of the state-owned enterprises. Before 2008, Chinese local governments were not allowed to borrow; but a 4 trillion RMB stimulus allowed local governments to borrow via local government financing vehicles and become drivers of investment, crowding out private-sector investment (see here). The Four Trillion RMB stimulus rolled out in 2008, followed by an infrastructure investment and housing boom, sustained China’s economic growth rate at around 10 per annum until 2011. But these debt-financed investments also planted the seeds for the debt problems Chinese developers and local governments are currently facing.[21] ”

Labor productivity by country in 2024

See also: The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia

Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption."[22]

According the Yahoo Finance: "According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country."[23]

The world map above gives the labor productivity rate by country in 2024.[24]

See also: The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia
USA: Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers[25]

The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China

See also: The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China

The Chinese communists are godless, corrupt, short-sighted and authoritarian. A cult of personality has developed around Xi Jinping and he has eliminated all significant political opposition so now he is surrounded by yes man. So the government is calcified around Xi Jinping's thoughts and less responsive to citizens' concerns and problems. See: Chinese Communist Party and Militant atheism and China and atheism and Atheism and morality and Atheism and leadership

On December 22, 2022, Foreign Affairs magazine noted in their article China’s Dangerous Decline "...China is teetering on the edge of a cliff. Ten years of Xi’s “reforms” — widely characterized in the West as successful power plays—have made the country frail and brittle, exacerbating its underlying problems while giving rise to new ones. ...a growing number of Western analysts—including Michael Beckley, Jude Blanchette, Hal Brands, Robert Kaplan, Susan Shirk, and Fareed Zakaria—have begun to highlight this reality..."[26]

In 2023, Professor Minxin Pei, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, wrote about China's dysfunctional government:

“ The bigger problem is that President Xi Jinping and his lieutenants still haven’t figured out how to dispel gloomy sentiments among Chinese entrepreneurs and foreign investors. The government’s crackdown on the tech sector and mistreatment of iconic executives such as Alibaba founder Jack Ma and real estate tycoon Ren Zhiqiang have instilled deep fears among private-sector businessmen. Many have emigrated abroad along with their wealth. A record 13,500 high-net-worth individuals are expected to leave China for safer shores this year.

If Xi can’t reverse this trend, the loss of confidence in his leadership among private entrepreneurs will depress investment and job creation. The share of private capital in China’s total investment in 2022, for example, fell to roughly 54% , the lowest in a decade.

The government can’t tackle this problem because it is the problem. In the past decade, there’s been a fundamental shift in the survival strategy and governance structure of the ruling Chinese Communist Party. The regime has prioritized political control over economic development and systematically shifted resources from the private sector to state-owned firms, mainly through industrial policy programs such as Made in China 2025.[27]

”

On October 30, 2023, The Guardian reported: "But by all accounts, the number of uber-wealthy people in China is in decline. Of the world’s estimated 2,640 billionaires, at least 562 are thought to be in China, according to Forbes, down from 607 last year.[28]

Videos and articles:

Why the Chinese Communist Party can't solve China's economic crisis

Interview with Stephen Kotkin & Orville Schell on what drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin

Stephen Kotkin is a scholar of Russia.

Orville Schell is known for his works on China.

Interview Stephen Kotkin & Orville Schell on Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin:

The fragility of an economy run by communists that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping

See also: Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?

"The underpinnings of China’s growth seem fragile from historical and analytical perspectives. Even if no crises materialize, unfavorable demographics, high debt levels, and an inefficient financial system will constrain China’s growth."[29]

Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?

Question: Are Chinese vases less fragile than Xi Jinping's inept leadership?



Authoritarian regimes, like China, are strong (Various means to repress population and/or to limit other political options), but at the same time they are brittle. The former Soviet Union is an example of this principle.

In modern history, corrupt, one-party regimes are not known for their great longevity such as lasting over 100 years and China has one-party rule - namely the Chinese Communist Party.[30] Mint News reported that "Chinese President Xi Jinping is expressing concerns about the potential collapse of the Communist Party of China (CCP) as millions worldwide are renouncing their affiliation with the party."[31]

The Chinese Communist Party could lose power if China continues its downward path in terms of economic strength (See: Scenario of a collapse of the CCP, Taipei Times, 2023).

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References

  1. ↑ China Slowdown Means It May Never Overtake US Economy, Forecast Shows, Bloomberg News, September 5, 2023
  2. ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
  3. ↑ US Extends Lead Over China in Race for World’s Biggest Economy, Bloomberg News, January 25, 2024
  4. ↑ China’s Difficult Challenge to Reach the Middle, Bloomberg News
  5. ↑ US Extends Lead Over China in Race for World’s Biggest Economy, Bloomberg News, January 25, 2024
  6. ↑ Why Is Deflation Bad for the Economy?, Investopedia
  7. ↑ What is deflation?, Empower website
  8. ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
  9. ↑ China is facing the US financial crisis 'on steroids' as the real estate market collapses, famed hedge fund boss says, Yahoo Finance, February 6, 2023
  10. ↑ China Beige Book International - About page
  11. ↑ China's tepid economic recovery represents a policy 'narrative shift', says China Beige Book CEO
  12. ↑ China’s leaders speed towards Japanisation, Reuters, October 19, 2023
  13. ↑ Labor Productivity: What It Is, How to Calculate & Improve It, Investopedia
  14. ↑ 25 Most Productive Countries Per Capita, Yahoo Finance
  15. ↑ How Education and Training Affect the Economy
  16. ↑ [How does Russia compare?], Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
  17. ↑ Book Review: 'Unrivaled' by Michael Beckley, Rand Corporation
  18. ↑ Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China’s Growth., Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
  19. ↑ How Education and Training Affect the Economy
  20. ↑ China's labor productivity growth from 1953 to 2022, Source: www.ceicdata.com
  21. ↑ What Explains China’s Economic Slowdown?, EconoFact.com
  22. ↑ Labor Productivity: What It Is, How to Calculate & Improve It, Investopedia
  23. ↑ 25 Most Productive Countries Per Capita, Yahoo Finance
  24. ↑ Most Productive Countries 2024
  25. ↑ USA: Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers
  26. ↑ China's dangerous decline, Foreign Affairs magazine, December 22, 2022
  27. ↑ China’s Economy Is OK. The Problem Is Its Politics by Minxin Pei (Professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, Bloomberg News, 2023
  28. ↑ China’s billionaires looking to move their cash, and themselves, out, The Guardian, 2023
  29. ↑ China Stumbles, but it is Unlikely to Fall by Eswar S. Prasad, December 2023
  30. ↑ China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 2020
  31. ↑ Xi Jinping raises concerns over potential collapse of Chinese Communist Party: Report, Mint News, 2023
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