Essay: Is the USA an economic powerhouse and juggernaut?

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Question: Is the USA an economic powerhouse and juggernaut?

Previously, I wrote the essays:

The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

Skepticism about China remaining a global power

Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

The essay below builds on the above essays.

1 Yes! The USA is an economic powerhouse and juggernaut. Eat your heart out Xi Jingping and Vladimir Putin!
2 Size of a working-age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world
- 2.1 Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies
- 2.2 The ability of the United State to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world
3 User: Conservative essays on international politics
4 See also
5 External links
6 References

Yes! The USA is an economic powerhouse and juggernaut. Eat your heart out Xi Jingping and Vladimir Putin!

Why is the USA an economic powerhouse and juggernaut?

Articles:

From Sea to Shining Sea: The Economic Powerhouse of the United States

The United States: The World’s Economic Powerhouse, ICF Review

America’s economic outperformance is a marvel to behold, The Economist, 2023

The myth of multipolarity: American power’s staying power. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?

As far international relations, the education website Unacademy.com defines a unipolar world thusly, "A unipolar world is when the majority of the world is dominated by a single state or nation's military and economic power and social and cultural influence."

The military defeats of the Soviet Union and United States in Afghanistan and the Vietnam War help demonstrate that we don't live in a unipolar world. It is hard to be an occupier in a country that doesn't want you to be there - especially in an age of fourth generation warfare (Fourth generation warfare is warfare where there is a blurring of the separation between war/politics and combatants/civilians. 4GW wars are more decentralized in terms of their command and control). See also: Essay: Western, liberal dominance over the world is over

A multipolar world refers to a system in the world which power is distributed among multiple/many states or blocs of states, rather than being concentrated in one (unipolar) or two (bipolar) dominant powers.^[1]

The material below argues that the world is not presently multipolar.

The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, 2023

Multipolarity: What Is It Good For? (Discussion of the above Foreign Affairs article The Myth of Multipolarity, 2023)

The great powers gap

"The United States and China are undoubtedly the two most powerful countries, but at least one more country must be roughly in their league for multipolarity to exist. This is where claims of multipolarity fall apart. Every country that could plausibly rank third—France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom—is in no way a rough peer of the United States or China." -The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, 2023

However, a number of leading geopolitical analysts are skeptical about China remaining a global power as it faces a number of serious intractable problems (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

I do agree with Donald Trump that America should not get into "endless wars" that do not serve America's vital interests.^[2] I also agree with Trump's policy of not using the American military to "solve ancient conflicts in faraway lands".^[3]

U.S. economic power vs. China's economic power

For more information, please see: Good Economic News Keeps Putting US Ahead in Cold War II, Bloomberg New, 2024

U.S. GDP growth

Chart of the growth of U.S. GNP from January 1947 to January 2023.

A great strength of the United States is its very consistent growth of its GNP over decades and its quick recovery the few times its GNP has gone down.^[4]

In addition, research indicates that in the long-term, non-authoritarian countries are more likely to experience greater economic growth. See: Time Under Authoritarian Rule and Economic Growth, CORI Working Paper No. 2007-02

For more information on this topic, please see:

*Should You Be Bullish on America?

Why is America so rich?

*Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world

*Slow and steady growth over the long term via capitalism and the rule of law versus short-sighted authoritarian economic growth that is costly to the long term economy

U.S. stock market

The Standard and Poor's 500 (commonly called the S&P 500) is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.

Graph of Inflation adjusted Standard and Poor's 500.

The Standard and Poor's 500 (commonly called the S&P 500) is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.

USA was among the most 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website

The USA was among the most 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website.^[5]

Read the articles: The Importance Of A Diversified Economy and Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification

Size of a working-age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world

Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies

In advanced economies, there is a high correlation between the size of a country's working-age population and its national gross national product (GNP).^[6]

The abstract for the 2023 academic paper The Wealth of Working Nations published by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Gustavo Ventura, and Wen Yao indicates:

“

Due to population aging, GDP growth per capita and GDP growth per working-age adult have become quite different among many advanced economies over the last several decades. Countries whose GDP growth per capita performance has been lackluster, like Japan, have done surprisingly well in terms of GDP growth per working-age adult. Indeed, from 1998 to 2019, Japan has grown slightly faster than the U.S. in terms of per working-age adult: an accumulated 31.9% vs. 29.5%. Furthermore, many advanced economies appear to be on parallel balanced growth trajectories in terms of working-age adults despite important differences in levels. Motivated by this observation, we calibrate a standard neoclassical growth model in which the growth of the working-age adult population varies in line with the data for each economy. Despite the underlying demographic differences, the calibrated model tracks output per working-age adult in most economies of our sample. Our results imply that the growth behavior of mature, aging economies is not puzzling from a theoretical perspective.^[7]

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National GDP levels and working age levels and national GDP.jpg

National GDP levels and working age levels and national GDP 2.jpg

National GDP levels and working age levels and national GDP 3.jpg

The ability of the United State to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world

In the modern world, immigration policies are a part of great power competition.^[8] For example, many Jewish scientists who fled Nazi Germany worked on the Manhattan Project.^[9]

The Baltimore Sun's article Many of America's best and brightest are immigrants indicates:

“

Of the six Nobel Prize winners in America in 2016, all six were immigrants. Indeed, more than one-third of U.S. Nobel Prize winners in chemistry, medicine, and physics have been immigrants. Since 1960, 23 immigrants won Nobel Prizes in chemistry, 20 in medicine and 21 in physics. These are amazing statistics that should not be ignored.

Clearly, immigration and public education are what make America great. Most people coming to this country cannot afford to send their children to private schools. To be sure, most immigrants come here not only to flee oppression but also for the free and quality education our public schools have long provided.^[10]

”

The article Attracting (and Keeping) the Best and the Brightest states: "We can clearly see the benefits of skilled immigration in cities such as Pittsburgh, which have transformed their declining steel economies to those driven primarily by research and development (R&D) as well as entrepreneurship in the fields of artificial intelligence and the life sciences. International students make up approximately 50% of the Carnegie Mellon University students seeking to launch a startup company in Pittsburgh... Just a decade ago, the economist William R. Kerr documented that between 2000 and 2010 more international inventors immigrated to the United States than to the rest of the world combined."^[11]

In addition, the article Attracting (and Keeping) the Best and the Brightest points out the recently the United States has "made an important change by reestablishing the nascent International Entrepreneur Rule for prospective founders who can secure at least $250,000 in investment from a qualified US investor. The program allows a renewable two-and-a-half-year period for entrepreneurs to try building a business in the United States, with the ultimate goal being permanent residence via a transition to a Green Card." ^[12]

Manjari Chatterjee Miller notes: "The history of Indian immigration to the United States dates back to the nineteenth century. Up until World War II, Indian immigrants were mostly low-skilled migrant workers. This pattern changed by the mid-twentieth century, when Indians flocked to the United States to study or work white-collar jobs. In India, this phenomenon was often dubbed the “brain drain,” as India’s best and brightest left to settle in the United States. Today, Indians constitute the second-largest immigrant group in the United States after Mexicans, and the highest-earning ethnic group in the country."^[13]

In 2023, The South China Morning Post's article China’s millionaires keep leaving, but now outflows may be ‘more damaging than usual’ states:

“

Advisory firm Henley & Partners estimates that mainland China will lose 13,500 high-net-worth individuals – those with investable wealth totalling more than US$1 million – followed by India’s 6,500. The UK, in third, will lose 3,200 such individuals, predicts the London-based investment migration consultancy.

In 2022, China lost 10,800 high-net-worth individuals, followed by Russia’s 8,500 and India’s 7,500, according to data in the “Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2023” released on Tuesday...

The US’ start-up and employment visa programmes, including “national interest waivers” (NIWs) under the green-card application process, are also popular among Chinese tech, medical and academic professionals and researchers, especially those impacted by the downturn in China’s tech sector, Liu said. “They pay attention to opportunities for skilled immigration from Singapore and the United States,” Liu explained...^[14]

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User: Conservative essays on international politics

The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.