Essay: China's economic decline will contribute to Russia's decline
That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.”
Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.[1]
In September of 2023, Volodymyr Ludovskyy PhD, Professor of Economics, Indiana University argued the following: Chinese Economic Collapse is Russia’s Downfall.
Although there are a number of very significant economic indicators pointing to the Chinese economy stagnating/declining in coming years an outright collapse appears far less likely according to the London School of Economics and Political Science because in the Chinese economic system "state-owned financial system that can prevent significant banks from failing and a closed capital account that can protect the country’s banking system" (See: Is China turning Japanese?).
At the same time, Japan was a much more prosperous country when it suffered three decades of economic recession/stagnation and there are reasons to believe that China's economic problems may become far worse (See:Japan's Recession Was Bad. China's Will Be So Much Worse.).
In addition, there are a number of reasons to be bearish about China's long-term economy (See: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy).
Before the outbreak of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China promised to back Russia “eternally”. However, China’s economy is now on the precipice – and it might take Russia down with it. China is facing a variety of factors that are strangling it: Youth unemployment of over 20%, more citizens seeking to leave, and a debt situation that has grown out of control.[2]
Unfortunately for Moscow, their strongest economic partner’s economy is falling apart.[3] See also: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines
Hindustan Times: China's Xi Jingping helped Russia Dampen Western Sanctions Impact as there was a 400% increase in Chinese loans to Russia. But how long can China afford to do this?
Contents
- 1 Will China's economic problems influence their foreign policy towards Russia?
- 2 Will China experience lost decades of economic stagnation like Japan? Will China face long term economic decline?
- 2.1 China facing the possibility of lost decades of economic stagnation like Japan
- 2.2 Why the Chinese Communist Party can't solve China's economic crisis
- 2.3 Will China face long term economic decline?
- 2.4 Japan, an ally of the United States, may be turning the corner in terms of its decades-long deflation battle
- 3 Russia's share of the world's economy is projected to shrink by 2028
- 4 Will China's and Russia's upcoming woes make it easier for the USA to compete against China and Russia in terms of economic competition and geopolitics?
- 5 User: Conservative's Geopolitical essays
- 6 See also
- 7 References
Will China's economic problems influence their foreign policy towards Russia?
In August 2023, The Diplomat indicated:
| “ | The Chinese economy is in trouble. Weak investment and consumer spending – what some have termed a “general erosion of public faith” – is compounding other, structural problems in the Chinese economy. A China-led global slowdown or recession may hit commodity exporters, including Russia, relatively hard while leaving other, less China-dependent economies relatively unscathed.
China’s economic stumbles may also have significant geopolitical consequences, as governments of all types tend to scale back foreign policy ambitions amid economic difficulties. Concretely, China’s economic weakness may incentivize Beijing to play a more active role in pressuring Russia to enter negotiations over the war. Still, while Beijing may dial back its support for Moscow’s war due to domestic economic considerations, China’s pro-Russia tilt will nevertheless persist. The signs of a sharp Chinese economic slowdown are everywhere. Official data shows that consumer prices dropped 0.3 percent last month, potentially signaling China’s descent into a Japan-style deflationary spiral. Imports and exports are slumping, and anecdotal but compelling evidence suggests Chinese consumers have fallen into a “psycho-political funk” amid concerns over black swan events like a future invasion of Taiwan or a real estate collapse. These real-time indicators are of little surprise to long-time observers of the Chinese economy. Some analysts have been warning for over a decade that China’s excessive reliance on debt would ultimately leave it with few good options, while recent gold-standard studies have warned that economic growth of 1-3 percent is achievable in the medium term – but only if China undertakes major structural reforms. China’s bill for decades of economic mismanagement, including historic misallocations of investment, surging debt loads, unfavorable demographics from Mao-era policies, and repressed consumption, is coming due. There are signs that domestic economic difficulties are compelling Beijing to adopt a softer foreign policy... China’s slumping economy is likely curbing many of its foreign policy ambitions and prompting a rethink of its policy toward the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Still, a systematic transformation of Beijing’s perspective on Ukraine or other key foreign policy matters is unlikely. Xi shares Moscow’s anti-Western hostility; demonstrates a very shaky grasp of economics, limiting his understanding of the scope of China’s domestic problems; and presides over a system that does not make major self-corrections easily. Xi may dial back China’s pro-Russia neutrality, but only reluctantly and partially.[4] |
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Will China experience lost decades of economic stagnation like Japan? Will China face long term economic decline?
China facing the possibility of lost decades of economic stagnation like Japan
- Is China in danger of Japanification? What can Beijing’s policymakers do to avoid lost decades?, South China Morning Post, August 1, 2023
- China Economic Slump: Similar To Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ In The 90s? | Japanification Of China? - video
Why the Chinese Communist Party can't solve China's economic crisis
- Xi Jinping’s Economic Plan: Let China Struggle, Bloomberg Podcast, August 2023
- China is a paper tiger. China is trapped, Daily Reckoning, September 2023
Will China face long term economic decline?
- China Is A Dying Paper Dragon by Chet Nagle, June 21, 2023
Japan, an ally of the United States, may be turning the corner in terms of its decades-long deflation battle
- Just as China faces a Japan-style ‘lost decade,’ Japan thinks it’s near a ‘turning point’ in decades-long deflation battle (Japan is an ally of the United States)
The article Is Russia the World’s 5th Largest Economy in GDP, PPP? indicates:
| “ | But what if we were to look ahead? How would Russia fare in the ranking of Europe’s and the world’s largest economies in the future? Again, we consulted the IMF, whose estimates go to 2028. These estimates show that in 2028 Russia’s share in the world’s GDP, PPP, in constant dollars will shrink, making it seventh among the countries with the largest shares in the world’s GDP. The IMF predicts that Russia’s share in the world’s GDP will decline from 2.92% in 2022 to 2.58% in 2028 (see Table 4), a decrease of 11.64%.[5] | ” |
Will China's and Russia's upcoming woes make it easier for the USA to compete against China and Russia in terms of economic competition and geopolitics?
Chinese property woes trigger a ‘dramatic shift’ into US stocks
- Chinese property woes trigger a ‘dramatic shift’ into US stocks - Financial Times, 9-12-2023
The United States will likely be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
Question: Will China's and Russia's upcoming woes make it easier for the USA to compete against China and Russia in terms of economic competition and geopolitics? See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
User: Conservative's Geopolitical essays
General
- The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?
- The so-called multipolar world is often mere Chinese propaganda and public relations
- Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?
- What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?
- Why has the West been so successful?
- Why the corrupt, authoritarian regimes of China and Russia are losing their long term competitive edge relative to the USA
- Slow and steady growth over the long term via capitalism and the rule of law versus short-sighted authoritarian economic growth that is costly to the long term economy
- December 2021 was a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come
- American and Western triumphalism or a realistic appraisal of world affairs?
- Attention anti-American hyper Russophiles/Sinophiles. Time is not on your side
- The 2023 BRICS Summit was a bunch of hoopla. We still don't live in a multipolar world.
- The wreck of the HMS Multipolar World Fantasy - Humor
- The anti-Christianity Mao Zedong, Fidel Castro, Joseph Stalin and Xi Jinping have opposed homosexuality so this isn't a very high moral bar for China and Russia to clear
The United States
See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
- The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
- The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia
- Is the USA an economic powerhouse and juggernaut?
- Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world
- Top 12 reasons why people are flocking to the USA and leaving the corrupt, authoritarian countries of China and Russia
- Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?
- The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come
- The USA can reduce its national debt. It has done it before
- The citizens of the United States are happier than the citizens of Russia and China. USA! USA! USA!
- The U.S. Navy is the most powerful navy in the world
- Gold reserves by country. The USA is still golden!
- The genius of the founding fathers of the United States, happiness and labor productivity
China
Russia
War in Ukraine
- The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years (A Minor dispute with a Conservapedian about the war in Ukraine)
Give me liberty, or give me death!
See also
References
- ↑ [China Slowdown Means It May Never Overtake US Economy, Forecast Shows], Bloomberg News, September 5, 2023
- ↑ Chinese Economic Collapse is Russia’s Downfall, Interview with Volodymyr Ludovskyy PhD, Professor of Economics, Indiana University, 9-12-2023
- ↑ Chinese Economic Collapse is Russia’s Downfall, Interview with Volodymyr Ludovskyy PhD, Professor of Economics, Indiana University, 9-12-2023
- ↑ Will a China-Led Global Recession Influence Beijing’s Russia Policy? , The Diplomat, August 2023
- ↑ Is Russia the World’s 5th Largest Economy in GDP, PPP?, Russia Matters website, 2023
