Essay: The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China

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A number of leading geopolitical analysts are skeptical about China remaining a global power as is faces a number of serious intractable problems (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

Chinese elite moving to the USA: "What of the new, 21st-century Chinese elite? Unnoticed, many “princelings” — progenies of the 500 families that founded the PRC in 1949 — have quietly left with their ill-begotten gains, and settled in exile, mostly in the Los Angeles area. This is not a sign of confidence in the CCP regime when the offspring of its founders have forsaken it." - Communist China: A Long March to Collapse? (Only those ignorant of its history think Communist China will survive forever. It won’t) by Dimon Liu. Center for European Policy Analysis, July 15, 2024 (See: China's decline and some Roman Empire decline parallels)

Presently, communist China is facing multiple crisis with the three major crisis below being signs of growing deflationary pressures on their economy:

The Chinese communists are godless, corrupt, short-sighted and authoritarian. A cult of personality has developed around Xi Jinping and he has eliminated all significant political opposition so now he is surrounded by yes man. So the government is calcified around Xi Jinping's thoughts and less responsive to citizens' concerns and problems. See: Chinese Communist Party and Militant atheism and China and atheism and Atheism and morality and Atheism and leadership

Corruption is so widespread in China that Wikipedia, an online encyclopedia founded by an atheist and agnostic, has an article entitled "Corruption in China".[2] On October 20, 2019, Wikipedia's Corruption in China article indicated, "Corruption in China post-1949 refers to the abuse of political power for private ends typically by members of the Chinese Communist Party, who hold the majority of power in the People's Republic of China."[3]

In modern history, corrupt, one-party regimes are not known for their great longevity such as lasting over 100 years and China has one-party rule - namely the Chinese Communist Party.[4] Mint News reported that "Chinese President Xi Jinping is expressing concerns about the potential collapse of the Communist Party of China (CCP) as millions worldwide are renouncing their affiliation with the party."[5]

Research indicates that in the long-term, non-authoritarian countries are more likely to experience greater economic growth. See: Time Under Authoritarian Rule and Economic Growth, CORI Working Paper No. 2007-02

In 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported in its article Xi Digs In With Top-Down Economic Plan Even as China Drowns in Debt:

“ Some are calling it a “Lost Decade.”

More than 10 years into the Xi Jinping era, it has become clear that much of China’s growth under his watch was driven by unsustainable borrowing, real estate speculation and investments in factories and infrastructure the country didn’t really need. Difficult reforms that could have unlocked more durable growth, such as steps to increase consumer spending, were neglected in favor of policies designed to bolster Communist Party control. Now, China is drowning in debt, reeling from a property bust that wiped out trillions of dollars of household wealth, and verging on a deflationary spiral. Growth has slowed, Western investment has collapsed and consumer confidence is near a record low.

And yet, as China squares off with the U.S. for a second showdown over trade, Xi is digging in. He’s convinced that his top-down approach to managing China’s economy, with plans to make it an even bigger industrial power, offers the best path for China to eventually surpass the U.S. in economic might.[6]

”

On December 22, 2022, Foreign Affairs magazine noted in their article China’s Dangerous Decline "...China is teetering on the edge of a cliff. Ten years of Xi’s “reforms” — widely characterized in the West as successful power plays—have made the country frail and brittle, exacerbating its underlying problems while giving rise to new ones. ...a growing number of Western analysts—including Michael Beckley, Jude Blanchette, Hal Brands, Robert Kaplan, Susan Shirk, and Fareed Zakaria—have begun to highlight this reality..."[7]

In 2023, Professor Minxin Pei, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, wrote about China's dysfunctional government:

“ The bigger problem is that President Xi Jinping and his lieutenants still haven’t figured out how to dispel gloomy sentiments among Chinese entrepreneurs and foreign investors. The government’s crackdown on the tech sector and mistreatment of iconic executives such as Alibaba founder Jack Ma and real estate tycoon Ren Zhiqiang have instilled deep fears among private-sector businessmen. Many have emigrated abroad along with their wealth. A record 13,500 high-net-worth individuals are expected to leave China for safer shores this year.

If Xi can’t reverse this trend, the loss of confidence in his leadership among private entrepreneurs will depress investment and job creation. The share of private capital in China’s total investment in 2022, for example, fell to roughly 54% , the lowest in a decade.

The government can’t tackle this problem because it is the problem. In the past decade, there’s been a fundamental shift in the survival strategy and governance structure of the ruling Chinese Communist Party. The regime has prioritized political control over economic development and systematically shifted resources from the private sector to state-owned firms, mainly through industrial policy programs such as Made in China 2025.[8]

”

On October 30, 2023, The Guardian reported: "But by all accounts, the number of uber-wealthy people in China is in decline. Of the world’s estimated 2,640 billionaires, at least 562 are thought to be in China, according to Forbes, down from 607 last year.[9]

Videos and articles:

China's major economic crisis are signs of major deflationary pressures

According to Investopedia, "Deflation is not normally bad for an economy, except when it occurs in reaction to previous over-inflation."[10] Unfortunately for China, it has economic bubbles that are bursting in relation to its real estate and stock markets which is causing much economic hardship to many Chinese. Both of these markets had values that were highly inflated relative to their actual economic value. The Empower website notes that deflation "can lead consumers to spend less now, in part because they expect prices to continue to fall; it can push businesses to lower wages or lay off employees to maintain profit levels; and it makes existing debt more expensive for many borrowers.[11]

Presently, communist China is facing multiple crisis with the three major crisis below being signs of growing deflationary pressures on their economy:

Why the Chinese Communist Party can't solve China's economic crisis

China has likely peaked and is now in decline arguments


China is no longer set to eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.

That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.”

Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.[13]

See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power



Flag of China

The January 23, 2024 South China Morning Post article China claims ‘biggest corruption in statistical sphere’ amid fake data crackdown indicates: "The accuracy of China's economic data has long been questioned, as many feel there is a gap between reality on the ground and the official figures, and Beijing has intensified efforts to crack down on data fraud in recent years amid efforts to dispel doubts."

With the above in mind, as can be seen by the below articles and videos, there is an abundant amount of evidence indicating that China's economy has likely peaked.


Articles:

The January 23, 2024 South China Morning Post article China claims ‘biggest corruption in statistical sphere’ amid fake data crackdown indicates: "The accuracy of China's economic data has long been questioned, as many feel there is a gap between reality on the ground and the official figures, and Beijing has intensified efforts to crack down on data fraud in recent years amid efforts to dispel doubts."

With the above in mind, as can be seen by the below articles and videos, there is an abundant amount of evidence indicating that China's economy has likely peaked.

Videos:

Interview with Stephen Kotkin & Orville Schell on what drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin

Stephen Kotkin is a scholar of Russia.

Orville Schell is known for his works on China.

Interview Stephen Kotkin & Orville Schell on Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin:

Other relevant articles: External links

Books

Other recommended books

The fragility of an economy run by communists that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping

See also: Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?

"The underpinnings of China’s growth seem fragile from historical and analytical perspectives. Even if no crises materialize, unfavorable demographics, high debt levels, and an inefficient financial system will constrain China’s growth."[14]

Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?

Question: Are Chinese vases less fragile than Xi Jinping's inept leadership?



Authoritarian regimes, like China, are strong (Various means to repress population and/or to limit other political options), but at the same time they are brittle. The former Soviet Union is an example of this principle.

See also

User Conservative's geopolitics essays

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Map of China

International politics

The United States

Russia

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

War in Ukraine

Other User: Conservative essays

External links

References

  1. ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
  2. ↑ Corruption in China, Wikipedia
  3. ↑ Corruption in China, Wikipedia
  4. ↑ China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 2020
  5. ↑ [Xi Jinping raises concerns over potential collapse of Chinese Communist Party: Report], Mint News, 2023
  6. ↑ Xi Digs In With Top-Down Economic Plan Even as China Drowns in Debt, Wall Street Journal, December 23, 2024
  7. ↑ China's dangerous decline, Foreign Affairs magazine, December 22, 2022
  8. ↑ China’s Economy Is OK. The Problem Is Its Politics by Minxin Pei (Professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, Bloomberg News, 2023
  9. ↑ China’s billionaires looking to move their cash, and themselves, out, The Guardian, 2023
  10. ↑ Why Is Deflation Bad for the Economy?, Investopedia
  11. ↑ What is deflation?, Empower website
  12. ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
  13. ↑ China Slowdown Means It May Never Overtake US Economy, Forecast Shows, Bloomberg News, September 5, 2023
  14. ↑ China Stumbles, but it is Unlikely to Fall by Eswar S. Prasad, December 2023
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