Essay: Russia's decline and some Roman Empire decline parallels
Questions: Is modern Russia in decline and are there many key parallels with the decline of the Roman Empire?
Previously, I wrote the essay at: Is Russia a failed state? which describes various ways that Russia is a failed state (See: Is Russia a failed state?).
This essay is a continuation of some of the concepts in that essay.
Additional information:
- Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years, Fortune magazine, January 23, 2023.
"Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time." - International relations scholar John Mearsheimer
Contents
- 1 Key parallels between Russia's decline and the Roman Empire's decline
- 2 Government corruption and instability: Roman Empire and Russia
- 3 Roman Empire population decline and Russian population decline
- 4 Roads and water/sewers deterioration in the Roman Empire and Russia
- 5 Economic problems: Romand Empire and Russia
- 6 Russia decline and Roman Empire decline: Fall in morality
- 7 Roman Empire decline and alcoholism. Russia and alcoholism
- 8 Russia decline and Roman Empire decline: Plagues
- 9 Russian power in decline and Russia in decline
- 10 How long will the American civilization last? Strong reasons it could be a very long time
- 11 Other essays about Russia
- 12 See also
- 13 External links
- 14 References
Key parallels between Russia's decline and the Roman Empire's decline
Government corruption and instability: Roman Empire and Russia
Roman Empire and corruption and political instability:
"Being the Roman emperor had always been a particularly dangerous job, but during the tumultuous second and third centuries it nearly became a death sentence. Civil war thrust the empire into chaos, and more than 20 men took the throne in the span of only 75 years, usually after the murder of their predecessor." - 8 Reasons Why Rome Fell, History.com
Russia and government corruption and instability:
- Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian. Also, Wagner Group rebellion, See: A year after mutiny, Kremlin controls Wagner remnants, BBC, 2024
See also: Russia's neo-Nazi problem belies one of Putin's rationales for the war in Ukraine
Videos:
- Russian government corruption and instability - video playlist, video playlist
Roman Empire population decline and Russian population decline
See also: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse
Roman Empire population decline:
Russia's population decline:
- Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse
- Russia's demographic crisis
The main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis according to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov:
The Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov says the main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis will be the following:
“ | According to the average version of the UN forecast, Russia's population by 2050 may be about 133.4 million people, which is 14th in the world and below countries such as Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico. But if Russia goes not according to the average, but according to the low option that is quite likely at the present time, then with a population of 123.2 million people we will drop to 16th place and will already be neighbors with Tanzania and Vietnam. Thus, the price of switching to the low scenario could be -10 million people, as well as a decrease in the place in the top countries in terms of population. Moreover, the low version of the UN forecast did not include too low or even negative migration growth.
A smaller population means a country's lower economic potential, a shrinking domestic market, worsening demographic problems and an aging population, as well as a decrease in the country's geopolitical power. The population size still correlates with the weight in international relations, the ability to promote their interests on the world stage. And the declining population for the largest country in the world may cause some neighbors on the continent, especially the eastern ones, to be tempted to solve their internal growing problems by some external adventures. But will Russia find anyone and how to fight back, will there be allies?[1] |
” |
Roads and water/sewers deterioration in the Roman Empire and Russia

- Russian road and sewer system decline as a sign of a waning country: The decline of the Roman Empire's infrastructure was mainly caused by a lack of dedicated funding for maintenance, political turmoil , and the vastness of the Roman Empire making it difficult to manage and repair infrastructure effectively, leading to aqueducts, roads, and other public works falling into disrepair, especially during the later stages of the Roman empire; as more resources were diverted towards military defense against barbarian invasions, funding for infrastructure projects dwindled significantly. As of December 2024, Russia is involved in 4 wars (Ukraine and 3 wars in Africa).
Russia's poor road/sewer quality:


Economic problems: Romand Empire and Russia
Roman Empire economic decline
"The primary economic problems that contributed to the fall of the Roman Empire included rampant inflation, currency devaluation, excessive taxation, a widening wealth gap between the elite and common people, and a decline in trade due to unstable currency, leading to a stagnant economy and inefficient resource allocation across the empire."[2]
Russia's economic problems

The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions are putting downward pressure on Russia's economy and the biggest effects are going to be the long-term effects.[4]
See: Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline
See also: Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline
There are many signs indicating that the Russian economy will enter long-term decline (See: Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline).
The resources below provide information related to Russia being in long-term decline:
Russian ruble problem:
The Russian ruble is down and Russia has high inflation. Putin just raised taxes on businesses and the wealthy (See: Russia Turns to Tax Hikes, Other Measures to Fund Its War). "Yes, Russia has been experiencing growing inequality, with the top 1% of earners taking a larger share of the national income and the wealthiest 10% owning a larger share of the country's wealth."[5]
Russia's inflation and other economic problems/risks:
- Russian central bank surprises markets by holding rates at 21% despite sky-high inflation, 10 Philadephia NBC News, December 20, 2024
- Why Putin is in an economic bind, Economist video, December 2024
- A somber outlook for the Russian economy, GIS Reports, 2024
- Russia’s rising stagflation threat, The Bell, 2024
- Why Putin is in an economic bind, Economist video, December 2024
Russia's declining rubble problem:
- Russian rouble collapse exposes deep problems in the country’s economy, The Conversation, December 2024
- Charted: The Decline of the Russian Ruble, Visual Capitalist, December 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service.
'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram.
See: Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy, CBC News, November 2, 2024 and Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages, Newsweek, October 29, 2024

Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:
*Russian rouble collapse exposes deep problems in the country’s economy, The Conversation, December 2024
*Charted: The Decline of the Russian Ruble, Visual Capitalist, December 2024
Russia decline and Roman Empire decline: Fall in morality
Roman Empire and its fall in morality:
Russia and morality:
See also: Russia is not a conservative country
Russia has an AIDS epidemic[6], the 3rd highest divorce rate in the world[7] and it has the 2nd highest alcoholism rate in the world.[8] Russia decriminalized being a homosexual in 1991, it has gay clubs/bars in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other cities plus it possesses many other signs that it is definitely not a conservative country (See: Russia is not a conservative country).
The 2021 LegitRuss Survey indicates that Russians aren't very conservative as indicated by:
“ | To understand the extent to which Russians actually share conservative values, the best initial strategy is to ask them directly, and also to ask multiple questions to make sure our conclusions are not skewed by any particular wording. LegitRuss principal investigators Kolstø and Blakkisrud have already taken us part of the way, reporting that Russians are not, on the whole, actually very “traditional” when it comes to religiosity. In fact, they find that believers differ very little from non-believers on issues such as abortion, premarital sex, and divorce, with society overall being largely split, if not leaning toward the non-conservative position. In addition, just over half, 56 percent, report belonging to a religious denomination at all, and of these, only 81 percent belong to the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), and 14 percent are Muslim. Only a decided minority of 26 percent think that the ROC should have a say in politics, with 71 percent opposing this. That said, 40 percent do confess to agreeing that it is God’s plan for Russia to be successful—large share of the population but still not a majority.[9] | ” |
For more information, please see: Russia is not a conservative country
Roman Empire decline and alcoholism. Russia and alcoholism
Roman Empire and decline and alcoholism
Russia and alcoholism
In 2023, Russia had the second highest alcoholism rate in the world as far as it being a problem with both genders.[10] In addition, in 2023 Russia had the highest alcoholism rate for males.[11] See also: Alcoholism in Russia
In 2019, it was reported that every year 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.[12]
In 2023, Business Insider reported: "Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows."[13]

In 2019, it was reported that every year 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.[16]
In 2023, Business Insider reported: "Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows."[17]
Jerusalem Post: Many Russian troop deaths tied to alcohol, gun accidents, hypothermia -UK, 2023
Russia decline and Roman Empire decline: Plagues
Roman Empire and plagues:
"The Roman Empire's decline was significantly impacted by several major plagues, most notably the "Antonine Plague" which struck around 165 AD, considered one of the first recorded pandemics, and is often linked to the beginning of the empire's decline as it decimated the population and weakened the military, leaving the empire vulnerable to barbarian invasions; other plagues like the "Plague of Cyprian" further contributed to the empire's instability and eventual fall by causing widespread death and economic disruption".[18]
Russia and modern epidemics:
Russia has an AIDS epidemic. - Russia faces shortage of HIV/AIDS drugs, DW News, 2023
Coronavirus pandemic and Russia: 807,084 coronavirus-related deaths reported in the country since the pandemic began, July 2022, Reuters[19]
Russian power in decline and Russia in decline
- Russian Power in Decline, Milken Institute Review, 2022
- Russian Power in Decline: A Demographic and Human Resource Perspective, American Enterprise Institute, 2022
How long will the American civilization last? Strong reasons it could be a very long time
See: How long will the American civilization last? Strong reasons it could be a very long time
Other essays about Russia

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian
See also
- China's decline and some Roman Empire decline parallels
- The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
- The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?
External links
- Some Lessons for Putin from Ancient Rome, Central Asia Caucus Institute, 2024
- Why empires fall: from ancient Rome to Putin’s Russia, New Statesman
- Decline of Russia
Video:
References
- ↑ "Until the end of the century, we will be enough." Demographer Salavat Abylkalikov - about whether Russia is dying and what to do about it, Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov
- ↑ Roman Empire fall economic problems, Google search
- ↑ Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone, Wall Street Journal, 2023
- ↑ Sanctions and Russia: Effects, Lessons, and the Future | A History Lab Discussion w/ Stephen Kotkin, August 25, 2023
- ↑ Russia growing inequality, Google search 2024
- ↑ Russia faces shortage of HIV/AIDS drugs, DW News, 2023
- ↑ Divorce Rates by country, 2024
- ↑ Alcoholism rate by country in 2024
- ↑ How Conservative Are Russians? Findings from the 2021 LegitRuss Survey, Ponars Eurasia, 2022
- ↑ Alcoholism by country
- ↑ Alcoholism by country
- ↑ Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
- ↑ Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows., Business Insider, 2023
- ↑ Alcoholism by country
- ↑ Alcoholism by country
- ↑ Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
- ↑ Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows., Business Insider, 2023
- ↑ Roman Empire fall and plagues, Google search
- ↑ Coronavirus pandemic deaths for Russia, Reuters, July 2022