Essay: Russian military weaknesses

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Since 2006 the Global Firepower Index (GFP) website has "provided a unique analytical display of data concerning 145 modern military powers. The GFP ranking is based on each nation's potential war-making capability across land, sea, and air fought by conventional means."[1]

In 2024, Russia's military was ranked the 2nd strongest in the world by the Global Firepower website.[2]

The Congressional Research Service reported in 2024 in its report entitled Russian Military Performance and Outlook:

“ Despite advantages of a larger recruitment base and defense industrial capacity, the Russian military has been unable to decisively defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Russian military has suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment. Its performance arguably has been hindered by a rigid command and control structure, a weakened corps of trained and professional units, and a reliance on tactics with high casualty rates. The Russian military, however, remains a resilient and capable adversary and continues to make steady progress capturing territory in Ukraine. It appears likely to sustain its operational tempo for the immediate future. Since 2022, Congress has supported Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s renewed invasion. Members may consider the Russian military’s condition and performance as they evaluate the state of the war, assess the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions on Russia and assistance to Ukraine, and deliberate about whether to appropriate further military or other assistance for Ukraine.[3] ”

Command and control weaknesses of the Russian military

Russian Ministry of Defense in Moscow

Concerning command and control weaknesses of the Russian military, the Congressional Research Service reported in 2024 in its report entitled Russian Military Performance and Outlook:

“ Despite attempted reforms to increase lower-level leadership and autonomy, the Russian military continues to operate with a Soviet-style centralized command. This command style at the tactical level often has contributed to the types of inflexible operations that contributed to previous failures and casualties. In May 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with civilian economist Andrei Belousov. This change came after persistent criticism of the defense leadership and poor performance of the Russian military.

Some observers note that Belousov’s appointment reflects a recognition by the Russian leadership that the war in Ukraine is a longer-term challenge and that managing economic and defense industrial resources may be crucial to sustaining Russia’s war effort. President Putin did not replace Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, possibly out of concern that doing so could provoke instability among the military leadership. Some observers argue that Russia’s leadership prioritizes the perceived political loyalty of officers over their battlefield effectiveness. Multiple Russian military leaders, including some reported to be among the most competent, have been relieved of command, apparently for perceived criticism of, or insufficient loyalty to, Russian political leaders.

Nevertheless, the Russian military leadership remains a cohesive force. [4]

”

Russian Army weaknesses

Russian army and logistics:

"The history of war proves that nine out of ten times an army has been destroyed because its supply lines have been cut off...” - General Douglas MacArthur.

Logistics quotes:

General Robert H. Barrow of the Marine Corps emphasized that amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics. Forget being an armchair general. If you want to be a pro, start with logistics 101.

General Robert H. Barrow, USMC (1980): “Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics.”

"Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, USN said, "Logistics is as vital to military success as daily food is to daily work".

Soviet-era tanks expected to be exhausted as early as 2025

"Recent events in the Ukrainian War have shed light on the state of Russia’s ability to resupply its war effort. Even elite Russian troops are being forced to rely on older, reserve equipment—including tanks built well over half a century ago. Moscow’s deep inventory of Cold War-era materiel has kept Russian troops in the fight, but not necessarily fighting: a recent attack by Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia eliminated most of a Russian airborne division fighting in tanks likely older than their fathers." - The Limits of Russia's War Machine || Peter Zeihan, video

In 2025, the supply of Soviet-era tanks may be exhausted which will force the Russian army to manufacture more expensive modern tanks. - The Limits of Russia's War Machine || Peter Zeihan, video

Russian air force weaknesses

Source: Has Russia’s military improved enough to take on NATO?, 2024

Bomber jet Su-24.
"Perhaps the weakest of Russia’s military branches is its air force.
Its consistently poor performance is matched by poor doctrine and equipment losses that have been hard to replace. Unlike Western militaries, Russia’s air force isn’t trained for strategic air campaigns, focusing solely on supporting ground units where needed.
Despite being at least four times the size of Ukraine’s, it was unable to destroy airfields, ammunition dumps, and radar sites in the opening hours of the invasion.
This is very different to Western air forces which, while also supporting ground units, are able to comprehensively blind its enemy, destroying key targets and large formations on the ground. They can cause strategic damage in the opening minutes of any conflict, enabling their forces to advance relatively unhindered.
In an effort to offset this weakness, long-range missiles have been used to great effect, penetrating deep into Ukraine despite Kyiv’s comprehensive air defences.
Iranian drones used as cheap cruise missiles are launched in barrages, soaking up and threatening to overwhelm Ukrainian defences.
The air force has leveraged its stand-off capabilities and launches glide bombs, often from within Russia that are accurate down to a few metres, their large warheads easily destroying Ukrainian targets."

Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky: "Drones are flying all over central Russia, right up to Moscow and St. Petersburg. They even attacked the Kremlin."[2], The Hill, 2024

Russian navy weaknesses

"The outlook is a return to the underinvestment and decay of the 1990s.
Efforts to get major warships back to sea, such as the carrier Admiral Kutzenov or battle cruiser Admiral Nakhimov, increasingly seem like a Pyrrhic victories. The sunk cost of these modernizations appear now to be a question of national pride more than increasing naval capabilities. There are reports in Russian State media that the Nakhimov will sail for the first time in around 25 years this month. But there is a significant caveat; it will sail without its nuclear reactors running. While there may be some practical value to these plans, they appear more for show. The Soviet practice of symbolic milestones just before year end is alive and well.
"The Russian Navy’s modernization plans are now significantly curtailed. Russia may be hoping that the incoming government in Washington will push a favourable solution in Ukraine, but the damage to their their naval plans already appears too deep."

Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky: "Our Black Sea fleet is being pushed out. It’s being pushed out as if we were not a great power with a great fleet, but some third-rate country."[3], The Hill, 2024

Russia losing its naval/air base in Syria

The article The Russian Navy Leaves Syria for Benghazi indicates:

“ Russia has used Syrian ports for decades, but since the new Syrian government is not so friendly to the Russians…they must leave. The only viable option the Russians have is to move the fleet over to Benghazi.

Benghazi doesn’t offer much, other than a place to park. So, no repairs would be done, no significant naval operations could be carried out, and resupplying would be a joke. Oh, and relocating to Libya places the Russian fleet within range of NATO forces.

So, the Russians can hide out in Benghazi for a bit and avoid embarrassment in Syria, but they shouldn’t stick around for too long...[5]

”

See also: The Russian Navy Leaves Syria for Benghazi., Video, 2024

Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier troubles (Russia's only air carrier)

The Russian military and corruption

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

One the most basic traditional values is not stealing. As far as the traditional value of not stealing, Vladimir Putin doesn't practice this aspect of social conservatism.

The conservative thinktank, the Hudson Institute, has a good video on Putin's kleptocracy: Putin's Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?

Furthermore, please read: Vladimir Putin's cozy relationship with organized crime in Russia.

Russia has a long history of corruption. Putin's corruption is not some surprising fact of history. See: Corruption in Russia: A Historical Perspective

The article Russian military’s corruption quagmire states about the war in Ukraine:

“ On the operational level, the corruption in defense procurement has also likely undermined logistics, manifesting in soldiers receiving inadequate equipment and supplies on the ground. Poor logistics slows down the advancement of troops, undermines their morale and hinders military effectiveness.

Early on in the invasion, there were accounts indicating that some Russian soldiers received rations that had expired in 2015. Most companies responsible for providing food to the Russian military are connected to Yevgeny Prigozhin — the patron of PMC Wagner, the mercenary organization, and sponsor of the Internet Research Agency, which has been accused of meddling in the United States elections. Several years ago, Prigozhin’s companies were accused by Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny of forming a cartel and gaming the state’s bidding system for defense orders, receiving contracts for several hundred million dollars. The quality of food and housing in the Russian military is reportedly worse than in its prisons, with unreasonably small meals and some carrying harmful Escherichia coli bacteria.

There are also reports that Russian advances in Ukraine were slowed by lack of fuel — and this in a country rich with oil and gas. But ineffective control over fuel consumption in the Russian military actually long preceded the war in Ukraine and had historically created opportunities for embezzlement — that is why fuel is often called the Russian military’s “second currency.” It is plausible that the long-standing tradition of corruption in fuel supply decreased the pace of Russian advancement in Ukraine.[6]

”

Recommended articles:

Recommended videos:

Russian army and its weaknesses relative to guerilla warfare

Articles:

Videos:

Loss of the Wagner Group and its implications at the time

Russian military and its weaknesses relative to NATO

Videos:

Facts related to NATO and miscellaneous:

The United States States has a significant number of allies and strategic partnerships such as the: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (NATO is made up of 32 countries. In 2024, the combined population of the 32 member countries of NATO was about 973 million people[7] and the combined GDP of all 32 NATO members was $45.93319 trillion.[8]); Aukus (a trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific region between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States); the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), and the Organization of American States (OAS). See: Who Are the US Allies: A Comprehensive Guide to America’s Key International Partnerships and Advancing U.S. Alliances and Partnerships through Security Sector Governance Initiatives

As of 2024, the USA pays 16% of NATO's total budget.[4]

Russia's counterweight to NATO is falling apart. Russia is losing influence in the Middle East

Read the article: Russia's counterweight to NATO is falling apart. Russia is losing influence in the Middle East

"The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is also falling apart. Initially founded as a counterweight to NATO, it has long been exposed as an attempted revanche to return control of former SSRs to Moscow. Uzbekistan left the alliance 12 years ago, and this year, Armenia announced its plans to leave. The loss of Armenia will force Moscow to abandon two more vital military bases and diminish its position in the South Caucasus." - Vladimir Putin Is Digging His Own Grave in Ukraine, December 11, 2024

Russia losing influence in the Middle East:

John Joseph Mearsheimer and U.S., China and Russia in relation to them being great powers

The flag of the United States

John Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

In his 2023 interview with the South China Morning Post, Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer stated about U.S. relations with China and Russia:

“ The Americans have a vested interest in pivoting full force to East Asia, to contain China. The Americans view China as a more serious threat than Russia. It’s very important to understand that China is a peer competitor to the United States. China is a rising great power and is a threat to the US in ways that Russia is not. So the Americans have a vested interest in not getting bogged down in a war in eastern Europe, more specifically in Ukraine.

Furthermore, they have a vested interest in doing everything they can to make sure that Russia and China are not close allies. What happens as a result of the Ukraine war is that it’s almost impossible for the US to fully pivot in Asia.[9]

”

However, China has grown considerably weaker in terms of it economy (Military power rest on economic power since militaries are expensive and need funding): Skepticism about China remaining a global power

In addition, please read: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

In his March 2022 interview with The New Yorker, Mearsheimer indicated:

“ I’m talking about the raw-power potential of Russia—the amount of economic might it has. Military might is built on economic might. You need an economic foundation to build a really powerful military. To go out and conquer countries like Ukraine and the Baltic states and to re-create the former Soviet Union or re-create the former Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe would require a massive army, and that would require an economic foundation that contemporary Russia does not come close to having. There is no reason to fear that Russia is going to be a regional hegemony in Europe. Russia is not a serious threat to the United States. We do face a serious threat in the international system. We face a peer competitor. And that’s China. Our policy in Eastern Europe is undermining our ability to deal with the most dangerous threat that we face today.[10] ”

In 2014, Mearsheimer said: "Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time."[11]

Russia's economic problems



I used to be more interested in Russia, but the ButterGate scandal put a damper on that.

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service.

'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram.

See: Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy, CBC News, November 2, 2024 and Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages, Newsweek, October 29, 2024

The great powers gap in economic power. Fielding a military is expensive

See also: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?

"The United States and China are undoubtedly the two most powerful countries, but at least one more country must be roughly in their league for multipolarity to exist. This is where claims of multipolarity fall apart. Every country that could plausibly rank third—France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom—is in no way a rough peer of the United States or China." -The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, 2023

However, a number of leading geopolitical analysts are skeptical about China remaining a global power as it faces a number of serious intractable problems (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

I do agree with Donald Trump that America should not get into "endless wars" that do not serve America's vital interests.[12] I also agree with Trump's policy of not using the American military to "solve ancient conflicts in faraway lands".[13]

Better demographics and a country being stronger. Russia's demographic crisis is growing worse with time

See also: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

Russia's fertility rate in 2024 is estimated to be 1.45 children per woman (Source: Russia is putting pressure on women to boost the birth rate — but demographers say the main problem is too many people dying).

In order to have a replacement level of birth, a country must have a fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Below are articles on why superior economics makes a country stronger militarily and economically:

Currently, Russia has a demographic/population crisis

Russian fertily rate

In order to have a replacement level of birth, a country must have a fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Russia's fertility rate in 2024 is estimated to be 1.45 children per woman (Source: Russia is putting pressure on women to boost the birth rate — but demographers say the main problem is too many people dying).

The main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis according to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov

The Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov says the main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis will be the following:

“ According to the average version of the UN forecast, Russia's population by 2050 may be about 133.4 million people, which is 14th in the world and below countries such as Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico. But if Russia goes not according to the average, but according to the low option that is quite likely at the present time, then with a population of 123.2 million people we will drop to 16th place and will already be neighbors with Tanzania and Vietnam. Thus, the price of switching to the low scenario could be -10 million people, as well as a decrease in the place in the top countries in terms of population. Moreover, the low version of the UN forecast did not include too low or even negative migration growth.

A smaller population means a country's lower economic potential, a shrinking domestic market, worsening demographic problems and an aging population, as well as a decrease in the country's geopolitical power. The population size still correlates with the weight in international relations, the ability to promote their interests on the world stage. And the declining population for the largest country in the world may cause some neighbors on the continent, especially the eastern ones, to be tempted to solve their internal growing problems by some external adventures. But will Russia find anyone and how to fight back, will there be allies?[14]

”

"Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time." - International relations scholar John Mearsheimer

Russia's challenges in protecting its borders: Arguments that Russia is a failed state

"Britannica explained that a failed state is the one that “cannot protect its national boundaries.” April 26, 2023 head of the Russian Committee of defense of the Russian State Duma suggested that Russian citizens should be mobilized to protect Russian borders acknowledging that Russia has no resources for that, comparing the current inability of the state to the previous mighty USSR." - Russia has failed as a state, Modern Diplomacy, 2023.

In addition, the Ukrainians invading Russia in a surprise attack in the Kursk region of Russia in August of 2024 demonstrates that Russia cannot protect its border. In November of 2024, the Ukrainians still occupied some territory in Kursk.

For more information, please see: Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?

The Russian Army compared to the Israeli army. Why is the Israeli army so outstanding?

See: The Russian Army compared to the Israeli army. Why is the Israeli army so outstanding?

The Israeli flag

The Israeli army has beaten armies 10 times their size (See: Why is the ISRAELI ARMY so POWERFUL? - VisualPolitik EN).

There is excellent evidence that God helped Israel during the Six Day War:

Videos: GOD'S HAND IN THE SIX DAY WAR and Did God Help Israel During The Six Day War? and Six Days of Miracles and Fmr Israeli Commander: God Protected us in Battle

Other essays on Russia

Russia:

See also



The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.

See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future



User:Conservative's essays

External links

References

  1. ↑ Global Firepower 2023 Military Strength Ranking: A Global Comparison
  2. ↑
  3. ↑ Russian Military Performance and Outlook, Congressional Research Service, 2024
  4. ↑ Russian Military Performance and Outlook, Congressional Research Service, 2024
  5. ↑ The Russian Navy Leaves Syria for Benghazi
  6. ↑ Russian military’s corruption quagmire, Politico, 2022
  7. ↑ NATO alliances, Worddata.info website
  8. ↑ Funding NATO, NATO website
  9. ↑ The West needs to prepare for ‘ugly’ Russian victory in Ukraine, which will reward China, leading US political scientist warns, South China Morning Post
  10. ↑ Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine, The New Yorker, March 2022
  11. ↑ Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault, Foreign Affairs, Published August 18, 2014
  12. ↑ Trump to West Point grads: 'We are ending the era of endless wars', Reuters, June 13, 2022
  13. ↑ Trump to West Point grads: 'We are ending the era of endless wars', Reuters, June 13, 2022
  14. ↑ "Until the end of the century, we will be enough." Demographer Salavat Abylkalikov - about whether Russia is dying and what to do about it, Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov
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