Difference between revisions of "New Zealand, its growing problem of hyper-aging areas and desecularization"

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(→‎Auckland, New Zealand will grow in influence and population in New Zealand due to religious immigrants and the higher fertility rate of religious immigrants)
(→‎Auckland, New Zealand will grow in influence and population in New Zealand due to religious immigrants and the higher fertility rate of religious immigrants)
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See: [[Auckland, New Zealand will grow in influence and population in New Zealand due to religious immigrants and the higher fertility rate of religious immigrants]]
 
See: [[Auckland, New Zealand will grow in influence and population in New Zealand due to religious immigrants and the higher fertility rate of religious immigrants]]
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[[Auckland]] is the largest city in [[New Zealand]].  It is a city of 1,652,000 people. In 2015, Professor Peter Lineham at the Massey University indicated that Auckland is the most religious region of New Zealand mainly due to Catholic migrants (From countries such as the Philippines and India) and [[Evangelicalism|evangelical]]/[[Pentecostalism|pentecostal]] Christians.<ref>[https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/god-and-money-interactive-map-shows-rich-suburbs-have-most-atheists/VPPRU4Y3RAY74DHDTCHVCXDE7Q/ God and money: Interactive map shows rich suburbs have most atheists], New Zealand Herald, 2015</ref>
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According to Professior Eric Kaufmann, "97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious... The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British."<ref>[https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/eric-kaufmann/london-a-rising-island-of-religion_b_2336699.html London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea] by Eric Kaufmann, ''Huffington Post'', 2012</ref>
  
 
== 21st century New Zealand, its aging population and individuals becoming more religious as they age ==
 
== 21st century New Zealand, its aging population and individuals becoming more religious as they age ==

Revision as of 08:02, January 29, 2023

New Zealand's fertility rate has been falling and is now below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman (Click on graphic to enlarge).

In 2008, the International Social Survey Programme was conducted in New Zealand by Massey University.[1] The results of this survey indicated that 72% of the population believed in the existence of God or a higher power, 15% are agnostic, and 13% are atheist (the survey had a 3% margin of error).[2] See: Irreligion in New Zealand

New Zealand, its growing problem of hyper-aging areas and the immigration of religious individuals

See also: Desecularization and aging populations and Global atheism and aging populations and Atheism and fertility rates

New Zealand road sign indicating that elderly people are in the area.

New Zealand’s towns and cities are rapidly becoming ‘hyper-aged’.[3]


MacauBusiness.com notes: "The World Health Organization defines a country as having an “ageing society” when the proportion of people aged 65 or more is between 7 and 14 per cent of the total population; as having an “aged society” if this proportion is between 15 and 20 per cent; and as having a “super-” or “hyper-aged society” when this proportion is 21 per cent or higher."[4]

According to the New Zealand government: "By 2030, it is expected that 19–21 percent of New Zealanders will be aged 65+, compared with 16 percent in 2020. By 2048, this proportion is expected to reach 21–26 percent, and reach 24–34 percent by 2073.[5] Japan, which has the highest percentage of individuals above 65 years old, had 28.2 percent of its population above 65 years old in 2019.[6]

The 2022 journal article A “death-laden society”: The next stage of a hyper-aged Japan and health challenges ahead published in the Aging and Health Research journal indicated about aging "death laden" societies: "A death-laden society is when the whole society, including younger people, are overwhelmed with the burdens of the ballooning deaths of those in advanced age at a scale unparalleled in history."[7]

On November 24, 2022, the article Welcome to the hyper-ageing nation that is New Zealand indicated:

“ New Zealand’s towns and cities are rapidly becoming ‘hyper-aged’, which will have far-reaching consequences for society and the economy. Population projections show it won’t affect all areas equally, and those most impacted will have difficult decisions to make...

Hyper-aged is an unusual term – and might even sound derogatory – but it’s a technical description for any population where the proportion of people aged-65+ is more than 20%.

In most cases, structural ageing cannot be reversed. Once natural decrease sets in, the only way to increase the population is through migration – either national or international.

Research suggests the level of migration required to balance natural decline is unrealistic, and that “even extremely high migration levels would have only minimal impact” on the proportion of the 65+ population.

Another problem is that migrants themselves get older, which adds to structural ageing. Maintaining a balance would require an exponential increase in migrant numbers over time. Councils can try to encourage residents of other areas to relocate, but many communities will be in the same position – they’ll be competing with each other for a dwindling proportion of younger people.[8]

”

Nonreligious/irreligious populations/nones have subreplacement levels of births which leads to aging populations (See: Atheism and fertility rates and Global atheism and aging populations). Caspar Melville wrote in The New Humanist: "Firstly secular liberalism is individualistic, and therefore it goes hand in hand with delayed child bearing and lower fertility rates.[9]

As far as the potential economic effects of hyper-aging areas of New Zealand, Wired magazine's article on hyper-aging areas indicates concerning Japan:

“ There are an estimated eight million ghost houses in Japan. With such plentiful supply we might expect a slump, in which prices tumble, but something new and extreme happens: in a vanishing village there is no price, however low, at which people will buy. The market is not depressed, but frozen. This chill goes further than economics: when a town is disappearing, local politics becomes pointless: across Japan, one-fifth of seats in the 2015 local elections went uncontested.

The solution to these problems will need to be extreme: bulldozing unwanted properties, rewilding deserted areas, and finding new ways to engage rural voters and politicians. Ageing is itself a pandemic, one that we will need to begin tackling as soon as Covid-19 is under control.[10]

”

Religious immigrants and secularism reversing in the Western nation of New Zealand by 2050

See also: Postsecularism and New Zealand in the 21st century and Labor shortages and desecularization projected to be faster in New Zealand in the 21st century

"I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious."- Eric Kaufmann[11]

The countries and regions generally included in the description of the "main western world" are western Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

Desecularization is the process by which religion reasserts its societal influence through religious values, institutions, sectors of society and symbols in reaction to previous and/or co-occurring secularization processes.[12]

Professor Eric Kaufmann, who teaches at Birkbeck College, University of London, specializes in the academic area of how demographic changes affect religion/irreligion and politics. Kaufmann is an agnostic.

On December 23, 2012, Kaufmann wrote:

“ I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.[13] [14]

”

Regarding the Western World as a whole and the growth of the religious population in the West, Kaufmann wrote:

“ ...this paper claims that the developing world will not only never catch up, but that, ironically, it is the West which will increasingly come to resemble the developing world. Committed religious populations are growing in the West, and will reverse the march of secularism before 2050. The logic which is driving this apparently anti-modern development is demography, a shadowy historical force whose power multiplies exponentially with the modernisation process. Demography is about raw numbers, and, in an age of low mortality, its chief components are fertility and migration.[15] ”
Filipinos at an annual Christmas parade in Hamilton, New Zealand. Irreligion in the Philippines is particularly rare among Filipinos.[16]

See also: Labor shortages and desecularization projected to be faster in New Zealand in the 21st century

At a conference Kaufmann said of religious demographic projections concerning the 21st century:

“ Part of the reason I think demography is very important, at least if we are going to speak about the future, is that it is the most predictable of the social sciences.

...if you look at a population and its age structure now. You can tell a lot about the future. ...So by looking at the relative age structure of different populations you can already say a lot about the future...

...Religious fundamentalism is going to be on the increase in the future and not just out there in the developing world..., but in the developed world as well.[17]

”

Jens Köhrsen, a professor for religion and economics at the Centre for Religion, Economy and Politics (ZRWP),[18] wrote:

“ [ Jürgen Habermas ] ...argues that a new age, the age of post-secularity, has begun. Previously vastly secularized societies, like the highly developed countries of Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, would experience a new awareness of religion and attribute a new public role to religion. From now on, religion would constitute a relevant dialogue partner in the public debates of these societies (Habermas, 2008). Moreover, Habermas presents a normative argument about public religion: he recommends that post-secular societies should facilitate religious contributions to the public sphere. Religious reasoning could contribute to public debates about the ethical values of contemporaneous and future societies. Habermas believes that modern societies might find some answers to the moral questions of our time by listening to religion in public debates (Habermas, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008). A similar position to that of Habermas is proposed by Leclerc (2001) and French sociologist Willaime (2004a, 2004b, 2005[1995]: 76-78, 2008). Willaime observes that even the highly secularized public and political sphere of France is exhibiting a new, more open attitude towards religion. The hypersecularity of France would stimulate a restructuration process of religion. According to Willaime, religion can form an important resource for public debates and be engaged in the identity construction process of individuals and collectives.[19] ”

According to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of "Evangelical, Born Again and Fundamentalist Christians" grew from 15,381 individuals to 38,127 individuals.[20] In addition, according to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of pentecostal Christians increased from 74,256 to 81,624.[21] See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity in New Zealand

For additional information, please see: Postsecularism and New Zealand in the 21st century

Rutland Street Church, Christchurch, New Zealand.

According to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of "Evangelical, Born Again and Fundamentalist Christians" grew from 15,381 individuals to 38,127 individuals from 2013 to 2018.[22]

See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity in New Zealand

Auckland, New Zealand will grow in influence and population in New Zealand due to religious immigrants and the higher fertility rate of religious immigrants

See: Auckland, New Zealand will grow in influence and population in New Zealand due to religious immigrants and the higher fertility rate of religious immigrants

Auckland is the largest city in New Zealand. It is a city of 1,652,000 people. In 2015, Professor Peter Lineham at the Massey University indicated that Auckland is the most religious region of New Zealand mainly due to Catholic migrants (From countries such as the Philippines and India) and evangelical/pentecostal Christians.[23]

According to Professior Eric Kaufmann, "97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious... The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British."[24]

21st century New Zealand, its aging population and individuals becoming more religious as they age

See also: Atheism and its retention rate in individuals and Atheism and immaturity and Desecularization and aging populations

Naval Reservists from HMNZS Pegasus Christchurch, New Zealand chats with an elderly lady as she enquires about the earthquake damage to the Coptic Orthodox Church on Edgeware Road.

In 2012, a study by the General Social Survey of the social science research organization NORC at the University of Chicago found that belief in God rises with age, even in atheistic nations [25] (For more information, please see: Atheism and immaturity).

The article Developed countries may become more religious in 20 years indicates:

“ Researchers from HSE University and RANEPA found that in high-income countries, age, rather than the cohort effect, has more impact on religiosity. They predict that this may have an impact on societal structure in the future. The study was published in Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion.

It has long been observed that older people tend to be more religious than younger people. However, it is still disputable whether this fact should be attributed to people generally becoming more religious with age per se (age effect), or to the process of secularization, wherein earlier cohorts (to which the now older people belong) used to be more religious than those that appeared later, i.e. younger cohorts (cohort effect). HSE University scholars decided to analyze this issue using data from six waves of the World Values Survey (2016) in high-income OECD countries. A total of 16 countries were studied, including Australia, the USA, Canada, Great Britain, Israel, New Zealand, Japan, Germany, as well as other European countries.

The researchers used logistic models and multiple linear regression to determine that the age effect has a higher impact on religiosity than the cohort effect. Older people are more inclined to believe in God, attend church, and believe it is important to instill religion in children.. The cohort effect impacts other factors analyzed by the scholars, such as church attendance and a belief in religion's importance in life, but the age effect still strongly prevails over the cohort effect...

The transition from religious to secular values may slow by 2040 in high-income OECD countries and, probably, there will be a resurgence of religiosity, the symptoms of which can be observed in Japan. On the other hand, widely divergent socio-cultural settings in different countries have an impact on religious behavior and attitude, and this must be taken into account in further research.[26]

”

See also

Essay:

References

  1. ↑ "Religion In New Zealand: International Social Survey Programme" (PDF). Massey University.
  2. ↑ "Religion In New Zealand: International Social Survey Programme" (PDF). Massey University.
  3. ↑ Welcome to the hyper-ageing nation that is New Zealand by Charlie Mitchell, November 24, 2022, The Spinoff (originally appeared in Stuff.NZ.CO)
  4. ↑ Special Report – 2031: The hyper-aging society scenario, MacauBusiness.com, 2021
  5. ↑ National population projections: 2020(base)–2073, www.stats.govt.nz website
  6. ↑ Countries With the Oldest Populations in the World, Population Reference Bureau: Sources: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 2019, https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/, and Toshiko Kaneda, Charlotte Greenbaum, and Kaitlyn Patierno, 2019 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2019).
  7. ↑ A “death-laden society”: The next stage of a hyper-aged Japan and health challenges ahead by Masa Higo, Aging and Health Research Volume 2, Issue 4, December 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ahr.2022.100110
  8. ↑ Welcome to the hyper-ageing nation that is New Zealand by Charlie Mitchell, November 24, 2022, The Spinoff (origininally appeared in Stuff.NZ.CO)
  9. ↑ Battle of the Babies by Caspar Melville, The New Humanist
  10. ↑ The next economic shock will be hyper-aged societies, Wired magazine, 2020
  11. ↑ London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  12. ↑ Religion and the State in Russia and China: Suppression, Survival and Revival by Christopher Marsh, 2011, page 11 (Christopher Marsh cites the definitions of desecularization given by Peter L. Berger and Vyacheslav Karpov)
  13. ↑ London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  14. ↑ 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious, Tuesday, April 30, 2013
  15. ↑ Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  16. ↑ Irreligion in the Philippines, July 2018, "Irreligion in the Philippines is particularly rare among Filipinos...".
  17. ↑ Eric Kaufmann - Religion, Demography and Politics in the 21st Century
  18. ↑ Prof. Dr. Jens Köhrsen, University website faculty page
  19. ↑ How religious is the public sphere? – A critical stance on the debate about public religion and post-secularity, Draft Version, Jens Koehrsen (Köhrsen). Bielefeld Graduate School in History and Sociology, Germany. École des hautes études en sciences socials, France. Published in: Acta Sociologica 55 (3), S. 273-288.
  20. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  21. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  22. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  23. ↑ God and money: Interactive map shows rich suburbs have most atheists, New Zealand Herald, 2015
  24. ↑ London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  25. ↑ Belief in God rises with age, even in atheist nations
  26. ↑ Developed countries may become more religious in 20 years, Eureka Alert
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