Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes
John Joseph Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.
Mearsheimer predicted the war in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War)
Although I would like the war in Ukraine to end soon, I suspect that Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer is correct and that the war will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See: INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.
Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in terms of land gained will be a pyrrhic victory (See: Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state. In addition, I predict that American/NATO taxpayers will continue to pay for this boondoggle with their tax money for several more years.
Axios reports: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer â potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."[1]
While I would love for the Republicans to honor the wishes of its Republican base and cut aid to Ukraine and would like to be pleasantly surprised if they do, Professor Mearsheimer has correctly pointed out several times that the Republican Party doesn't listen to its base when it comes to foreign wars and the elites that are warhawks usually get their way.[2] The military/industrial complex and its lobbyists usually prevail despite the wishes of the American public. Furthermore, Meaersheimer is highly skeptical that if Donald Trump were to win the presidency in 2024 that he would end the war quickly for various reasons (See: Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer). I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.
If Donald Trump (or some other Republican) is elected in 2024, maybe Donald Trump (or that Republican) will surprise me and strike a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as early as 2024 or 2025 (Long-shot events do sometimes happen as evidenced by anyone who has ever seen a black swan). But even if such a thing were accomplished, things will flare up to some degree after such a peace agreement.
Although I can potentially see the war in Ukraine ending in 2025 if Trump or another Republican is elected (Ukraine is not of vital national interest of the USA), it seems unlikely given the animosity between Russia/Ukraine now and other factors mentioned in the video INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine. But Trump did make relations between North Korea and the USA better for a while.
Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and that is the best we can hope for (See: Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer). Once again, I agree with him on this point. He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would have flare-ups and I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.
Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.
How long do post WWII wars last - some relevant statistics
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine
| â | Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[3] | â |
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References
- â White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid, Axios, 2023
- â Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer | SpectatorTV
- â How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
- â How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website