Talk:O’Sullivan’s First Law

MAGA agenda

Does O'Sullivan's First Law apply to the MAGA agenda? Trump & Liz Warren both want to eliminate the debt limit. [1] The skies the limit as far as inflation goes ("More inflation. It's a great asset. What a stupid SOB." [2]) RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 14:53, June 4, 2025 (EDT)

The 100+ year old debt ceiling law actually shows the weakness of the conservative movement in America during World War I rather than a national consensus (as sometimes often touted). Unable to stop warmongers and the march to war in 1917, conservatives had to settle for a procedural rule on a vote in the US Senate to increase spending and debt (Remember, this was done at a time when the US was still under the Gold Standard. Those factors were later removed by Presidents FDR & Nixon). Since 1917, the vote to increase the debt limit has just become a procedural ritual in the US Senate which creates delays and partisan bickering. Increasing the debt limit and federal spending has long since little to do directly with defense spending, as the whole Great Society welfare spending and Vietnam War effort to have guns and butter proved.

The danger of no debt limit leaves the dollar vulnerable to rapid inflation spikes, as other nation's currencies have experienced, which is why the US dollar was looked at as a "stable" reserve asset. Governments willy nilly increase government spending to appease the populace with perks, government projects, and welfare spending.

Removing the debt limit is an effort to alleviate the population from privations caused by war by having both guns and butter, kicking the inflationary spikes down the road perpetually in this now perpetual state of war, and leading to more destruction of the US dollar as a reserve asset and de-dollarization.

Money (or currency) is supposed to reflect the productive powers of labor in a given country; but nowadays money is just PIDOOMA'd by Congress and the Federal Reserve Board for whatever government projects and vote-buying schemes they want. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 16:11, June 4, 2025 (EDT)

Removing the debt ceiling has many conservatives concerned, and rightly so.--Andy Schlafly (talk) 16:20, June 4, 2025 (EDT)

So we have a conflict here between the proposal to do away with the debt ceiling and Trump's threats against BRICS nations about dedollarization.

As a reserve asset, the rest of the planet is tired of getting caught up in ridiculous US domestic politics which then affects their national currencies. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 16:31, June 4, 2025 (EDT)

You make excellent points about this. Can't have this both ways: unlimited debt that destroys the dollar and yet requirements that the world uses the dollar.--Andy Schlafly (talk) 17:23, June 4, 2025 (EDT)

Big picture view of the USD: 25 year history plus additional commentary

USD chart from 1986 to Present

"U.S. labor productivity remains significantly higher than that of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), with average BRICS productivity estimated at roughly one-quarter of U.S. levels. While the U.S. leads in output per hour, BRICS countries, particularly China, have experienced faster growth rates, aimed at narrowing the technological and structural gap."[3]

USA Labor Productivity: Still the global gold standard. The U.S. continues to hold the top position in GDP per hour worked among the world's largest economies, outstripping the combined efficiency of the BRICS nations.

Higher productivity generally strengthens a nation's currency value by increasing the real output behind each unit of currency, allowing it to purchase more goods. Increased efficiency often leads to currency appreciation, while lower productivity relative to money supply growth causes depreciation. Robust productivity in tradable sectors specifically drives higher exchange rates.

• What are the factors that prevent the USD from going down more than it has? What will most likely cause the USD to go up in the future if it does? When is the USD expected to go up again? Conservative (talk) 18:25, January 25, 2026 (EST)

I just read your AI spam - you obviously did not. Beginning with the response to first question: "What are the factors that prevent the USD from going down more than it has? 1. Higher rates attract capital: When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, U.S. assets (like Treasury bonds) become more attractive to global investors."

Is this why Trump has been trying to fire Fed Chairman Powell for a year, cause Powell will not cut interest rates? or why he has him under criminal investigation?

Before you start spamming liberal AI claptrap in every discussion. READ IT FIRST.

Interesting. However this discussion is about the debt ceiling, not all the inflated illusions created by Keynesianism. RobS^{Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.} 18:33, January 25, 2026 (EST)

80% of all dollars were created in the past 5 years

M1 up to November 26, 2024.

User:Conservative's chart, which purports to show a 20 year record, needs to be inflation adjusted downward 80%. In real terms, neither the US economy nor US labor productivity has increased 80% in the past 5 years. RobS^{Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.} 19:46, January 25, 2026 (EST)

80% of all dollars were created in the past 5 years. True or untrue?

Summary: "The claim that 80% of all U.S. dollars were created in the past 5 years is false—a widely circulated exaggeration. Using M2

The chart above clearly states M1. RobS^{Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.} 20:16, January 25, 2026 (EST)

(the standard broad money supply measure): Current M2 (late 2025/early 2026): ~$22.3 trillion. 5 years ago (early 2021): Already ~$19–19.5 trillion. Even from pre-pandemic (Jan 2020: ~$15.4 trillion), the increase is only ~$7 trillion, or roughly 30–32% of today's total. The "80%" figure usually comes from misreading the 2020 M1 reclassification spike or outdated pandemic-era claims. Actual new money creation over the last 5 years is closer to 15–35% of the current supply, depending on exact dates—not 80%." Conservative (talk) 19:55, January 25, 2026 (EST)

Your in over your depth. You already violated a basic rule of rational discussion - bringing in AI claptrap to make futile points.

Again, in real terms, neither the US economy nor US labor productivity has increased even 15% - 35% over the past 5 years. RobS^{Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.} 19:59, January 25, 2026 (EST)

Basically, it's why Congress passed the Obama stimulus in 2009 and the Covid CARES Act in 2020 - to keep the dollar index stable. RobS^{Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.} 19:59, January 25, 2026 (EST)

It was only borrowing - increasing the debt limit and national debt - that Congress and the Federal Reserve could keep the dollar index propped up (or "stable"). RobS^{Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.} 21:31, January 25, 2026 (EST)

Trump's right, NRA is wrong

IMO, it would be better to keep one's mouth shut and let things develop rather than take a stand like this. Now we are seeing how O'Sullivan's Law came into existence. RobS^{Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.}

Besides trashing to prominent pro-life useful idiot Marjorie Taylor Greene, it's not the right hill to die on. RobS^{Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.} 15:44, January 28, 2026 (EST)