Difference between revisions of "Essay: My fellow Americans. I believe that we will win! USA! USA! USA!"

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(→‎Characteristics of "superforecaster" which a boorish hyper Sinophile/Russophile so obviously lacks to a high degree)
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=== Characteristics of "superforecaster" which a boorish hyper Sinophile/Russophile so obviously lacks to a very high degree ===
 
=== Characteristics of "superforecaster" which a boorish hyper Sinophile/Russophile so obviously lacks to a very high degree ===
  
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''See also:'' [[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction|
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''See also:'' [[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction]]
  
 
Characteristics of "[[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction|superforecaster]]":<ref>[https://jaknguyen.medium.com/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-summary-7d2bb0eea2e1 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20180719205012/https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=em&document_id=1053681521&serialid=gRAGx5o9KjpeAGBLPq7bpyJRa6r6fj06KjHB6PGBbGU%3D Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills], Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock</ref>
 
Characteristics of "[[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction|superforecaster]]":<ref>[https://jaknguyen.medium.com/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-summary-7d2bb0eea2e1 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20180719205012/https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=em&document_id=1053681521&serialid=gRAGx5o9KjpeAGBLPq7bpyJRa6r6fj06KjHB6PGBbGU%3D Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills], Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock</ref>

Revision as of 18:22, April 11, 2024

The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.

Please see: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

On August 23, 2023, I wrote the essay at How I found my American patriotism again and began to appreciate the West more.

Believe it or not I received some pushback, but I was not dismayed. Because I am an American and REAL AMERICANS are known for their relentless optimism and can-do spirit!

And more importantly, the facts are on my side as can be seen by reading the essays below:

Since I wrote my August 2023 essay about my American patriotism China and Russia have seen a lot of decline - a whole lot of decline!

Question: Have China and Russia seen a lot of decline since August 23, 2023?

China's decline

Flag of China

Russia's decline

  • Russia and innovation (In 2023, Russia was ranked 51st in the world as far as the Global Innovation Index and it recently fell on the index)

China has VERY likely peaked! So very peaked! Like super peaked!

The January 23, 2024 South China Morning Post article China claims ‘biggest corruption in statistical sphere’ amid fake data crackdown indicates: "The accuracy of China's economic data has long been questioned, as many feel there is a gap between reality on the ground and the official figures, and Beijing has intensified efforts to crack down on data fraud in recent years amid efforts to dispel doubts."

With the above in mind, as can be seen by the below articles and videos, there is an abundant amount of evidence indicating that China's economy has likely peaked.

China

See: China's Economic Slump Wipes 155 Billionaires off Global Rich List, Newsweek, 2024

Articles:

  • China’s rise is reversing, Financial Times, November 20, 2023 (The past two years have seen the largest drop in the China’s share of global GDP since the Mao era)

Videos:

Top 12 reasons why people are flocking to the USA and leaving the corrupt, authoritarian countries of China and Russia

See: Top 12 reasons why people are flocking to the USA and leaving the corrupt, authoritarian countries of China and Russia

Attention hyper Sinophile/Russophile: As much as I hate to say "I told you so" about China and Russia, I most certainly did. Big time and with great accuracy!

Early on, I pointed out on several talk page posts that Russia would become less productive because it was switching from a civilian economy to a war economy. A hyper Russophile who was very aggressive and rude vehemently disagreed with me.

I was entirely right. Russia's already low labor productivity/innovation rate and labor shortages got worse and its population on the decline got smaller. And it happened to such a degree that Vladimir Putin, Russia's central bank, Russian demographers, and prominent Russian economists are now saying this. And with the terrorist attack on Moscow and attendant anti-migrant feelings in Russia, migrants are going back to their home countries in many cases so the labor shortages have increased.

The hyper Sinophile/Russophile said my economic predictions about China and were wrongheaded and wanted me to watch a leftist video on YouTube. Well, China has a huge property crisis, big routs on their stock markets, high youth unemployment and one of the fastest shrinking populations on the planet.

You have been a wreck in terms of seeing the big picture in terms of world developments - except for the obvious observation that "small Ukraine" cannot beat "big Russia" with a much larger population, etcetera in the war in Ukraine. And unfortunately, with fourth generation warfare, Ukraine might be a thorn in Russia's side for years and years so the conflict could drag on and on via insurgencies, terrorism, etc. The Troubles in Ireland lasted for decades.

As much as I hate to do it, on behalf on all red blooded patriotic Americans, I hereby declare total victory over the vehement and rude hyper Sinophile/Russophile who cavilierly dismissed my forecasts about China and Russia - despite the fact that I used reasonable arguments and evidence.

My forecasts weren't difficult to do given their obviousness to someone with openmindedness and some knowledge about economics and history or willing to learn about these things, but you were totally blinded by your hyper Sinophila/Russophilia and prideful closemindedness.

I have four words for you: I told you so!

And sadly for you, you are not a "superforecaster" with a growth mindset who is willing to improve his forecasting abilities. I pity you so much!

Characteristics of "superforecaster" which a boorish hyper Sinophile/Russophile so obviously lacks to a very high degree

See also: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Characteristics of "superforecaster":[3][4]

- Temperament: Cautious (Many things are uncertain), Humble (Reality is infinitely complex), Non-Determinist.

- Cognition: Open-Minded (Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected), Intelligent, Curious (Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges), Reflective (Introspective and self-critical), Numerate (Comfortable with numbers).

- Analytical: Pragmatic (Not wedded to any idea or agenda), Dragonfly-Eyed (Value diverse views and synthesize them into your own), Probabilistic, Thoughtful Updaters (When facts change, they change their minds), Intuitive Psychologist (Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive biases and emotional biases).

- Work Ethic: Growth Mindset, Grit (Determined to keep at it however long it takes)

Will Donald Trump win in 2024 and make America bigger, better and stronger than ever before?

See also: The USA will become bigger, better and stronger than ever before! Russia and China will not! USA! USA! USA!

"Hey Xi, how did you like my tariffs buddy? China!" - Donald Trump
Listen to the song: Bigger Better Stronger - Donald Trump Remix!

Donald Trump is running for president in 2024![5] The excitement is raging!

Please see: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

"But I was successful at everything I ever did and then I run for president, first time - first time, not three times, not six times. I ran for President first time and lo and behold, I win." - Donald Trump

"Sometimes by losing a battle you find a new way to win the war." - Donald Trump

"What separates the winners from the losers is how a person reacts to each new twist of fate." - Donald Trump

"Most people think small, because most people are afraid of success, afraid of making decisions, afraid of winning. And that gives people like me a great advantage." - Donald Trump

Attention all hyper Sinophiles/Russophiles. The USA being better than China and Russia is an incredibly low bar for Americans to jump over!

See: Essay: Attention all hyper Sinophiles/Russophiles. The USA being better than China and Russia is an incredibly low bar for Americans to jump over!

Xi Jinping is the current General Secretary of the Communist Party of China which requires that all their members be atheists.[6] See: China and atheism and Atheism and communism

See also: China and involuntary organ harvesting
In 2014, The Washington Times reported: "China’s one child policy, baby trafficking, and sex trafficking of North Korean women aren’t the worst human rights violation happening in the country. Aborting innocent and healthy unborn children and eating them to boost one’s stamina and sexual health is.[7]
South Korean officials became aware of a horrific practice of eating aborted fetuses after Seoul Broadcasting System showed a documentary on Chinese doctors who performed abortions and then ate the fetuses. One Chinese doctor on the documentary took out fetuses from his refrigerator.[8]
Vladimir Putin in a KGB uniform.

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

Do I hope the best for China and Russia? Of course, I do

I realize that for the most part cultures tend to change slowly.

The website Cultural Front notes:

“ In chapter 6 of Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell highlights cultural legacies. He opens with disturbing descriptions of how longstanding cultural patterns and beliefs influenced violent conflicts among generations of families in Kentucky during the 19th century.

The compelling research findings concerning long-term and deeply held values led Gladwell to the conclusion that cultural legacies are powerful forces. They have deep roots and long lives. They persist, generation after generation, virtually intact, even as the economic and social demographic conditions that spawned them have vanished, and they play such a role in directing attitudes and behavior that we cannot make sense of our world without them. He goes on to note the possibilities of “taking cultural legacies seriously” in order to learn “why people succeed and how to make people better.”[9]

”

At the same, do I hope the best for China? Of course, I do. And there is some hope for China given the explosive growth of Christianity in China (See: Growth of Christianity in China). And in the Soviet Union, which also had state atheism (China has state atheism, See: China and atheism), state atheism collapsed with fall of the Soviet Union (See: Collapse of atheism in the former Soviet Union). So the Chinese Communist Party, which enforces state atheism, could lose power if China continues its downward path in terms of economic strength and lose its power over the Chinese people.[10]

The flag of Russia

There are some Russians who hold some traditional Russian Orthodox ideas (However, attendance at Russian Orthodox churches appears to be very low. See: Although attendance at Russian Orthodox churches is low). There is a large portion who do not hold traditional values and Russia has the 3rd highest divorce rate in the world (See: Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world).

In several notable and important ways, Russia is not a conservative country (See: Russia is not a conservative country).

Russia has a long history of corruption. Vladimir Putin's corruption is not some surprising fact of history (See: Corruption in Russia: A Historical Perspective). See: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian and Essay: Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?

On the other hand, who knows what the future may bring for Russia. Nothing is impossible with God. And troubles in Russia might spark a religious awakening in Russia. Sometimes people find God when they encounter difficulties. If Nineveh can repent after hearing the preaching of Jonah, Russia can repent.

References

  1. ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
  2. ↑ Демографический ежегодник России" The Demographic Yearbook of Russia (in Russian). Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat)
  3. ↑ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary
  4. ↑ Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills, Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock
  5. ↑ Trump Announces 2024 Presidential Bid, Cementing Battle for the Future of the GOP, US News and World Report, 2022
  6. ↑ China’s Communist Party Reaffirms Marxism, Maoism, Atheism, New American, 2014
  7. ↑ Chinese cannibalism of infant flesh outrages the world, Washington Times, 2014
  8. ↑ Chinese cannibalism of infant flesh outrages the world, Washington Times, 2014
  9. ↑ Outliers & Cultural Legacies
  10. ↑ Scenario of a collapse of the CCP, Taipei Times, 2023
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