2024 swing states for the U.S. presidential election

The 2024 swing states for the 2024 U.S. presidential election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The three states of Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania will be the most crucial states to decide the next President. Trump has many pathways to victory, such as winning North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia or winning North Carolina, Pennsylvania and sun belt states of Arizona and Nevada. Other states such as Virginia, Minnesota and Maine at large could be in play.

With the Dem insiders' replacement of California Kamala Harris for Pennsylvania-raised Joe Biden, Pennsylvania is in play as a swing state again for its 19 Electoral College votes (1 less than it had in 2020). New Hampshire moved to a toss-up also according to summer polling before Biden was pushed out of the race by power brokers against Biden. See Pennsylvania turnout.

Real Clear Politics posts the latest polling data for the 2024 swing states.

Margins in 2020

• Arizona: Biden reportedly won by only 10,457 votes (0.4%)
• Georgia: Biden reportedly won by only 11,779 (0.3%)
• Wisconsin: Biden reportedly won by only 20,682 (0.6%)
• Nevada: Biden reportedly won by only 33,596 (2.4%)
• Pennsylvania: Biden reportedly won by only 81,660 (1.2%)
• Michigan: Biden reportedly won by only 154,188 (2.8%)
• North Carolina: Trump won by 74,000 (1.3%)

Wisconsin

Farmers are considered crucial to winning Wisconsin: "Agriculture Becomes Key Issue to Winning Rural Wisconsin Voters."

Nevada

Nevada is a blue-leaning swing state, worth merely 6 electoral votes. Republicans should spend their time and money elsewhere to ensure Kalifornia Kamala goes home.

Pennsylvania

The replacement by power-brokers against Biden of Kamala Harris for the Pennsylvania-raised Biden makes this state winnable for Trump.

In July 2024, the fourth most populous county (Bucks County) just swung to a Republican majority in registration:

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There are now 198,045 registered Republicans and 197,781 registered Democrats, giving the GOP a 264-voter advantage, according to county data as of Monday. There are also 61,061 unaffiliated voters and 21,198 voters who are registered with other parties. Bucks County Republican Committee Chairwoman Pat Poprick said that the flip is the result of a years-long effort by GOP organizers, the local PBS outlet reported.

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Michigan

Michigan emerged as a swing state this cycle due to how its large voting bloc of 500,000 Muslims turned against him in December 2023 due to Biden/Harris mishandling of the Gaza crisis, and due to the Biden/Harris Administration's war on the traditional internal combustion engine car on which Michigan's economy heavily relies.