Growth of the "nones" in New Zealand, its cap on future growth and expected decline, its effect on New Zealand politics

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The New Zealand Census of 2018 reported that "no religion" were 48.6 percent of the population.[1] New Zealand census data indicates that the percentage of nones has been growing in New Zealand.[2]

The New Zealand Census of 2018 reported that "no religion" were 48.6 percent of the population.[3] New Zealand census data indicates that the percentage of nones has been growing in New Zealand.[4]

However, Pew Research found that 72% of people in the United States who put "None"/"no religion" on surveys believe in the existence of God/gods, but do not subscribe to a particular religion or to a particular religious organization so perhaps the same may be occurring in New Zealand.[5] In addition, in the United States, it was found that individuals who attend nondenominational churches sometimes put "None"/"no religion"/"unaffiliated" on surveys because they regard their relationship with Jesus Christ to be personal and spiritual rather than religious and perhaps the same may be happening in New Zealand.[6] See also: Likely large overreporting of "nones" in the United States and "No religion" responses on the New Zealand census data survey and poor survey design

As far as irreligion in New Zealand, in 2008, the International Social Survey Programme was conducted in New Zealand by Massey University.[7] The results of this survey indicated that 72% of the population believed in the existence of God or a higher power, 15% are agnostic, and 13% are atheist (the survey had a 3% margin of error).[8]

In Western nations the share of people who were raised as Christians and switch away from Christianity has not risen much above 50% anywhere, even in highly secular, Western European countries

"I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious."- Eric Kaufmann[9]

In 2022, Pew Research reported:

“ Looking at the experience of 80 countries, we find that the share of people who were raised as Christians and switch away from Christianity has not risen much above 50% anywhere, even in highly secular Western European countries. For American Christians concerned about these trends, that could be the demographic good news of the day. If there truly is a floor under Christian retention rates, the net movement from the ranks of Christian to the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated eventually may stop.[10] ”

Eric Kaufmann is a professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London and author. His academic research specialty is how demographic changes affect religion/irreligion and politics.

Concerning the future of religion/secularism in Europe, professor Eric Kaufmann wrote:

“ We have performed these unprecedented analyses on several cases. Austria offers us a window into what the future holds. Its census question on religious affiliation permits us to perform cohort component projections, which show the secular population plateauing by 2050, or as early as 2021 if secularism fails to attract lapsed Christians and new Muslim immigrants at the same rate as it has in the past. (Goujon, Skirbekk et al. 2006).

This task will arguably become far more difficult as the supply of nominal Christians dries up while more secularisation-resistant Muslims and committed rump Christians comprise an increasing share of the population.[11]

”

Global decline of nones in the 21st Century

See also: Growth of Christianity in China and East Asia and global desecularization

According to the Pew Research Forum:

“ These projections, which take into account demographic factors such as fertility, age composition and life expectancy, forecast that people with no religion will make up about 13% of the world’s population in 2050, down from roughly 16% as of 2010.

This is largely attributable to the fact that religious “nones” are, on average, older and have fewer children than people who are affiliated with a religion...

China, with its large population and lack of reliable data on religious switching, is something of a wild card when it comes to the future of world religion. This is especially true for the religiously unaffiliated population; more than half of the world’s people who do not identify with any religion live in China (roughly 700 million).

Some experts believe the Christian population in China is rising while the religiously unaffiliated population is falling. If this is true – and the trend continues – religious “nones” could decline as a share of the world’s population even more than the Pew Research Center study projects.[12]

”

Postsecularism and New Zealand in the 21st century

See also: Postsecularism and New Zealand in the 21st century

Smrithi Kamtikar performing at Rhythm and Rhapsody, Auckland, NZ.

On December 28, 2018, the New Zealand Herald reported, "New data obtained by the Herald from the Department of Internal Affairs reveals that people born in India top the list of new citizens living in Auckland."[13]

According to the 2012 WIN-Gallup Global Index of Religion and Atheism report, 81% of Indians were religious, 13% were non-religious and merely 3% were convinced atheist.[14]

In 2008, the International Social Survey Programme was conducted in New Zealand by Massey University.[15] The results of this survey indicated that 72% of the population believed in the existence of God or a higher power, 15% are agnostic, and 13% are atheist (the survey had a 3% margin of error).[16] See: Irreligion in New Zealand

Jens Köhrsen, a professor for religion and economics at the Centre for Religion, Economy and Politics (ZRWP)[17], wrote:

“ [ Jürgen Habermas ] ...argues that a new age, the age of post-secularity, has begun. Previously vastly secularized societies, like the highly developed countries of Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, would experience a new awareness of religion and attribute a new public role to religion. From now on, religion would constitute a relevant dialogue partner in the public debates of these societies (Habermas, 2008). Moreover, Habermas presents a normative argument about public religion: he recommends that post-secular societies should facilitate religious contributions to the public sphere. Religious reasoning could contribute to public debates about the ethical values of contemporaneous and future societies. Habermas believes that modern societies might find some answers to the moral questions of our time by listening to religion in public debates (Habermas, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008). A similar position to that of Habermas is proposed by Leclerc (2001) and French sociologist Willaime (2004a, 2004b, 2005[1995]: 76-78, 2008). Willaime observes that even the highly secularized public and political sphere of France is exhibiting a new, more open attitude towards religion. The hypersecularity of France would stimulate a restructuration process of religion. According to Willaime, religion can form an important resource for public debates and be engaged in the identity construction process of individuals and collectives.[18] ”

In April 2010, Kaufmann, who is an agnostic, declared "the rate of secularisation has flattened to zero in most of Protestant Europe and France."[19] Kaufmann also declared that secularism "appears exhausted and lacking in confidence".[20]

On December 23, 2012, Kaufmann wrote:

“ I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.[21] [22]

”

For more information, please see: Labor shortages and desecularization projected to be faster in New Zealand in the 21st century

Regarding the Western World as a whole and the growth of the religious population in the West, Kaufmann wrote:

“ ...this paper claims that the developing world will not only never catch up, but that, ironically, it is the West which will increasingly come to resemble the developing world. Committed religious populations are growing in the West, and will reverse the march of secularism before 2050. The logic which is driving this apparently anti-modern development is demography, a shadowy historical force whose power multiplies exponentially with the modernisation process. Demography is about raw numbers, and, in an age of low mortality, its chief components are fertility and migration.[23] ”

Growth of evangelical Christianity in New Zealand

See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity in New Zealand

According to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of "Evangelical, Born Again and Fundamentalist Christians" grew from 15,381 individuals to 38,127 individuals.[24] In addition, according to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of Pentecostal Christians increased from 74,256 to 81,624.[25]

In countries that are irreligious than most countries, it is common for evangelical Christianity to be experiencing growth and sometimes rapid/explosive growth (see: Growth of evangelical Christianity in irreligious regions).

Growth of the "nones" and its effect on New Zealand politics

Jacinda Ardern, an agnostic who was the former Prime Minister of New Zealand, courted religious voters. She resigned in 2022 and was replaced by a theist

Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern, an agnostic, spoke during centenary celebrations at Rātana Church in November. She gifted her Bible to the movement, saying it was a symbol of her promise to lead a government that was kind and compassionate.[26]

Jacinda Ardern, former Prime Minister of New Zealand who is an agnostic, won power in 2017 through a coalition and without a democratic majority. Her politics were politically left-of-center on most issues.

In 2018, a New Zealand news website declared: "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern speaks during centenary celebrations at Rātana Church in November. She gifted her Bible to the movement, saying it was a symbol of her promise to lead be a government that was kind and compassionate."[27] Jacinda Ardern is an agnostic.[28]

In 2022, she resigned and is expected to be replaced by Chris Hipkins who is a theist.

Organized irreligion is very weak in New Zealand

See also: Atheism and social skills and Atheism and loneliness

According to an international study done by William Bainbridge, atheism is frequent among people whose interpersonal social obligations are weak and is also linked to lower fertility rates in advanced industrial nations (See also: Atheism and fertility rates).[29]

The New Zealand atheist Bob Brockie wrote: "Atheists are not united in one band in New Zealand. In fact they are not organised at all. If you want to get in touch with an atheist you will find like-minded souls in the New Zealand humanist or rationalist societies, or the NZ Skeptics. The Atheist Republic has a consulate in Auckland."[30]

In the Western World, atheists are generally apathetic, have weak leadership and engage in a significant amount of infighting (see: Atheism and apathy and Atheism and leadership and Atheist factions). Numerous atheists have declared that the "atheist movement is dead" or that it is dying (see: Decline of the atheist movement).[31]

Due to the weakness of organized irreligion in New Zealand politics and their small numbers compared to New Zealand theists, New Zealand nones have not formed a coalition with irreligious New Zealanders.

Growth of the "nones"/unaffiliated in the West and its effect on Western politics and the political power of atheists

See: Growth of the "nones"/unaffiliated in the West and its effect on Western politics and the political power of atheists

See also

References

  1. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  2. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  3. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  4. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  5. ↑ Key findings about Americans' belief in God. Pew Research Center (April 25, 2018). “In recent years, the share of American adults who do not affiliate with a religious group has risen dramatically. In spite of this trend, the overwhelming majority of Americans, including a majority of the religiously unaffiliated – those who describe themselves, religiously, as atheists, agnostics or “nothing in particular” – say they believe in God or a higher power, according a new Pew Research Center survey conducted in December of 2017....Finally, among those who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated – also known as “nones” – 72% say they believe in a higher power of some kind.”
  6. ↑ Good News about Evangelicalism, First Things
  7. ↑ "Religion In New Zealand: International Social Survey Programme" (PDF). Massey University.
  8. ↑ "Religion In New Zealand: International Social Survey Programme" (PDF). Massey University.
  9. ↑ London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  10. ↑ Religious ‘switching’ patterns will help determine Christianity’s course in U.S., Pew Research, 2022
  11. ↑ Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  12. ↑ Why people with no religion are projected to decline as a share of the world’s population, Pew Forum
  13. ↑ Indians top list of Auckland's new NZ citizens, New Zealand Herald, December 28, 2018
  14. ↑ Global Index Of Religion And Atheism" (PDF). WIN-Gallup. Archived from the original (PDF) on 16 October 2012. Retrieved 3 September 2013.
  15. ↑ "Religion In New Zealand: International Social Survey Programme" (PDF). Massey University.
  16. ↑ "Religion In New Zealand: International Social Survey Programme" (PDF). Massey University.
  17. ↑ Prof. Dr. Jens Köhrsen, University website faculty page
  18. ↑ How religious is the public sphere? – A critical stance on the debate about public religion and post-secularity, Draft Version, Jens Koehrsen (Köhrsen). Bielefeld Graduate School in History and Sociology, Germany. École des hautes études en sciences socials, France. Published in: Acta Sociologica 55 (3), S. 273-288.
  19. ↑ Shall the religious inherit the earth? by Eric Kaufmann
  20. ↑ Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London
  21. ↑ London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  22. ↑ 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious, Tuesday, April 30, 2013
  23. ↑ Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  24. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  25. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  26. ↑ Godless NZ? Not entirely - we're actually becoming a more Christian nation
  27. ↑ Godless NZ? Not entirely - we're actually becoming a more Christian nation by Martin van Beynen, Dec 29, 2018, www.stuff.co.nz
  28. ↑ Knight, Kim (January 29, 2017). "The politics of life: The truth about Jacinda Ardern". The New Zealand Herald.
  29. ↑ Bainbridge, William (2005). "Atheism" (PDF). Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Religion. 1 (Article 2): 1–26.
  30. ↑ Brockie: Is New Zealand a godless country?, www.stuff.co.nz
  31. ↑
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