Last modified on October 31, 2020, at 04:29

Trump effect

President Donald Trump

The Trump effect refers to events and trends that have occurred due to the election or influence of Donald Trump as United States President.

Outperforming Polling

In 2016, Trump outperformed polling in the key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Iowa:[1]

State Deficit by Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of polls Amount Trump won by Amount that Trump outperformed the mainstream polls
Michigan -3.4% +0.3% 3.7%
Pennsylvania -1.9% +0.7% 2.6%
Wisconsin -6.5% +0.7% 7.2%
North Carolina[2] +0.8% +3.6% 2.8%
Iowa[3] +3% +9.5% 6.5%

It should be noted that polls oversample Democrats. Also, with the advent of social media being used to harass conservatives, many individuals either do not participate in polls, or if they do they lie to the pollster ("I'm voting for Hillary") but then cast their ballot for Trump.

Insourcing and American jobs

The Trump effect includes voluntary actions by American companies to make America great again by not moving manufacturing jobs to other countries, after Donald Trump championed this issue in his successful campaign for president in 2016.

Trump and the stock market

Despite expectations that Trump's election victory would cause the markets to plunge, the Dow Jones Industrial Average actually performed very strongly, closing at the highest level it had ever reached in history after the second day.[4] It is rare for the stock market to rise immediately after a U.S. presidential election regardless of the winner.[4] The stock market had its best week in five years due to the optimism of a Trump presidency.[5]

Trump was very busy in his first week and showed he was serious about his campaign promises. This caused the stock market to increase, and the Dow Jones passed 20,000 points for the first time in its history.[6][7] It had been only 42 days since the Dow Jones passed 19,000 points, making it the second-fastest 1,000 point move of the Dow in its history.[8] On March 1, 2017, the day after Trump made his first address to a joint-session of Congress, the stock market rose dramatically again, with the Dow Jones passing the 21,000 mark for the first time in history.[9][10][11] The stock market had one of the best performances in the first 100 days of Trump's presidency compared to the first 100 days of previous presidents in U.S. history.[12]

On June 1, 2017, the same day President Trump announced his decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, and the day after,[13] the stock market rose strongly, mainly due to news of increased economic growth.[14]

Of course, the stock market did not see only growth during the Trump Administration; on May 17, 2017, for example, the Dow Jones fell 372 points (1.78%) due to the fallout from the James Comey controversy.[15]

Recognition of bias by the mainstream media

The Trump effect includes an overwhelming loss in trust by the public in the mainstream media, with the vast majority of people recognizing now that the media frequently lies to the public and is thoroughly tainted by liberal bias.[16]

Effect on token "conservatives"

See also: token conservative

Trump and his actions were able to more clearly delineate between conservatives and token conservatives – liberals posing as conservatives.

When Trump became the presumptive nominee, some registered Republicans left the party.[17] Numerous liberal and establishment Republicans chose not to vote for Trump in the general election.[18] Trump's nomination also reportedly deepened the divide between the GOP establishment and the base.[19]

David Frum voted for the far-left Hillary Clinton over conservative Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election[20] and later called for President Trump to resign.[21]

In May 2017, Ross Douthat called for President Trump's impeachment, but because of any "high crimes and misdemeanors," which Douthat admitted Trump did not commit, but because Trump was supposedly unfit to serve.[22] The same month, George Will stated that Donald Trump supporters were "scowling primitives" who "hijacked" the conservative movement.[23]

In July 2017, Joe Scarborough showed how liberal he had become by finally leaving the GOP.[24]

Bret Stephens stated that "the party of Donald Trump" is related to "exclusion, fear, and bigotry", and that conservatives must "admire" the elites, who are "educated" and care about "culture" and the "cultivation of the human soul."[25] He also stated that "real Americans are screwing up America" and should deport themselves.[25]

Despite claiming to be "center-right", Jennifer Rubin shows herself to be a leftist in devoting most, if not all, her commentary articles on bashing Trump and pro-Trump anchors on Fox News.

Evan McMullin's behavior and anti-Trump attacks (coming from someone claiming to be a conservative alternative to Trump), as well as his refusal to give Trump a chance to show himself to be a conservative president, became so outrageous that even other anti-Trumpers who endorsed him, such as Erick Erickson, turned away from him.[26]

Switching parties

The most notable instance of a Democrat becoming a Republican due to President Trump was West Virginia Governor Jim Justice.[27][28]

Illegal immigration

Illegal immigration declined dramatically after Trump took office.[29][30] According to data released early in Trump's presidency, illegal border crossings decreased by 40% in the first month of Trump's presidency – a remarkable achievement, considering that illegal immigration usually increases by 10 to 20% in January and February.[31][32] In March, illegal immigration had fallen by over 60%.[33] By Trump's 100th day in office, levels were reported to have fallen by 73%.[34][35] The declining trend of border apprehensions (an indicator of the level of illegal immigration) continued through May.[36] It was reported in April that illegal immigration levels had fallen to the lowest point in 17 years.[35][37][38]

It was reported in May that the number of child illegal immigrants entering the nation monthly had fallen below 1,000, the first time in several years, and that total illegal immigration levels had fallen by 76%.[39] In six months, the illegal immigration of Haitians, specifically, into the U.S. declined by 97%.[40] Although not solely due to President Trump, illegal immigration from Cuba dropped dramatically in the beginning of Trump's presidency.[41] Illegal immigration dropped so much that U.S. Customs and Border Protection was able to close one of their temporary holding facilities.[42] As another illustration, a non-profit shelter organization for illegal immigrants, Southwest Key Programs, was forced to lay off nearly 1,000 of its employees due to the drop.[43] The drop in illegal immigration was probably due to the Trump effect[29][44][45] and tougher illegal immigration and deportation policies by the Homeland Security Department.[46][47]

Illegal immigration levels rose in June 2017, but they were still much lower than the previous year and at a six-year low.[48]

Foreign effects

The Trump effect also includes actions by foreign dictators to stop lying to the world, as when Cuba finally admitted that Fidel Castro was dead after ten years of denying it. The communist dictator did this just before President-elect Trump was to receive a briefing by the Obama Administration, which had long known that Fidel was dead as demonstrated by how Obama did not even mention, let alone meet, Fidel during Obama's trip to Cuba in early 2016.


President Trump strongly urged the other NATO members to increase their defense spending in order to meet their spending pledges. In late-June 2017, it was reported that Europe's NATO countries would increase their defense spending at the fastest pace in three years.[49]

See also


  4. 4.0 4.1 La Monica, Paul R. (November 10, 2016). The 'yuge' Donald Trump market rally continues. CNN Money. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  5. Craig, Victoria (November 11, 2016). Trump Optimism Propels Dow to Best Week in Five Years. Fox Business. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  6. Imbert, Fred (January 25, 2017). Dow closes above 20,000 for first time as Trump orders send stocks flying. CNBC. Retrieved January 25, 2017.
  7. Craig, Victoria (January 25, 2017). Dow Races Past 20K in Reinvigorated Trump Rally. Fox Business. Retrieved January 25, 2017.
  8. Decambre, Mark (January 25, 2017). Dow clambers above 20,000 — marks 2nd-fastest run to a milestone in history. MarketWatch. Retrieved May 18, 2017.
  9. Witkowski, Wallace; Mahmudova, Anora (March 1, 2017). Dow closes above 21,000 as stocks soar after Trump speech. MarketWatch. Retrieved March 1, 2017.
  10. Holcomb, John (March 1, 2017). The Trump Bump: Stock Market Hits 21,000 for the First Time in History. Townhall. Retrieved March 1, 2017.
  11. DeSoto, Randy (March 1, 2017). Stock Market Hits New High Following Trump’s Speech To Congress. Western Journalism. Retrieved March 1, 2017.
  12. Multiple references:
  13. Witkowski, Wallace; Mahmudova, Anora (June 2, 2017). Stock market closes at records as tech leads gains. MarketWatch. Retrieved June 3, 2017.
  14. Multiple references: Fox Business. Retrieved June 3, 2017. However, coal and oil stocks decreased on June 1:
  15. Craig, Victoria (May 17, 2017). Trump-Comey Turmoil Socks Wall Street, Stocks See Worst Day in Eight Months. Fox Business. Retrieved May 17, 2017.
  17. Multiple references:
  18. Graham, David A. (November 6, 2016). Which Republicans Oppose Donald Trump? A Cheat Sheet. The Atlantic. Retrieved June 5, 2017.
  19. Stokols, Eli (May 8, 2017). Donald Trump breaks the GOP. Politico. Retrieved June 5, 2017.
  20. Revesz, Rachael (November 3, 2017). George W Bush’s speechwriter says he voted for Hillary Clinton. The Independent. Retrieved May 19, 2017.
  21. David Frum. Twitter. May 15, 2017. Retrieved May 19, 2017.
  22. Pollak, Joel B. (May 17, 2017). New York Times’ ‘Conservative’ Columnist Calls for Trump to be Ousted. Breitbart News. Retrieved May 17, 2017.
  23. Ernst, Douglas (June 1, 2017). George Will blasts ‘scowling primitives’ for hijacking conservative movement. The Washington Times. Retrieved June 1, 2017.
  24. Multiple references:
  25. 25.0 25.1 Lee, Tony (July 5, 2017). ‘Never Trumper’ Bret Stephens: POTUS Supporters ‘Idiots’ & Bigots, Should ‘Admire’ Elites. Breitbart News. Retrieved July 6, 2017.
  26. Dulis, Ezra (June 28, 2017). Erick Erickson’s The Resurgent Turns Against Evan McMullin: A Tragedy in 10 Headlines. Breitbart News. Retrieved June 29, 2017.
  27. Chumley, Cheryl K. (August 4, 2017). Jim Justice swap of ‘D’ to ‘R’ shows Trump Effect not a fluke. The Washington Times. Retrieved August 4, 2017.
  28. Gómez, Serafin; Doocy, Peter; Darrah, Nicole (August 3, 2017). West Virginia's Democratic governor announces switch to Republican party. Fox News. Retrieved August 4, 2017.
  29. 29.0 29.1 Lajeunesse, William; Prabucki, Laura (May 11, 2017). Trump's tough immigration rhetoric slows illegal border crossings: 'We're at a trickle'. Fox News. Retrieved May 11, 2017.
  30. Bogan, Ray (June 9, 2017). Border Patrol arrests in 2017 break historical trend. Fox News. Retrieved June 10, 2017.
  31. Illegal border crossings decrease by 40 percent in Trump's first month, report says. Fox News. March 9, 2017. Retrieved March 31, 2017.
  32. Illegal border crossings from Mexico down 40%. Breitbart News. March 9, 2017. Retrieved March 31, 2017.
  33. Multiple references:
  34. Nolan, Lucas (April 29, 2017). Trump: ‘Illegal Immigration Down by Unprecedented 73%’. Breitbart News. Retrieved April 30, 2017.
  35. 35.0 35.1 Valverde, Miriam (April 25, 2017). Is illegal immigration the lowest in 17 years, as Trump said? PolitiFact. Retrieved April 30, 2017.
  36. Multiple references:
  37. L.A. Times: Southwest Border Crossings at ‘Lowest Point in at Least 17 Years’. Breitbart News. April 10, 2017. Retrieved April 11, 2017.
  38. Price, Bob (May 12, 2017). Mexican Border Apprehensions Hit 17-year Low. Breitbart News. Retrieved May 12, 2017.
  39. Dinan, Stephen; Noble, Andrea (May 9, 2017). Trump’s immigration enforcement helps slow illegal border crossings by 76%. The Washington Times. Retrieved May 9, 2017.
  40. Dinan, Stephen (April 16, 2017). Haitians get word of Trump crackdown, slow flow to border by 97%. The Washington Times. Retrieved April 20, 2017.
  41. Saavedra, Ryan (May 12, 2017). Cuban Migration Plummets to Zero in April. Breitbart News. Retrieved May 12, 2017.
  42. Price, Bob (February 15, 2017). Drop in Trump Era Border Crossings Shutters Detention Center. Breitbart News. Retrieved March 31, 2017.
  43. Price, Bob (May 22, 2017). Migrant Shelter Lays Off 1,000 after Border Crossings Drop. Breitbart News. Retrieved May 22, 2017.
  44. Sessions: Border crossings down 60 percent due to 'Trump's strong leadership'. Fox News. March 30, 2017. Retrieved March 31, 2017.
  45. Brown, Ben (April 12, 2017). Border Patrol Union President: Illegal Immigration Decline ‘Strictly’ Due to Trump. Fox Business. Retrieved April 20, 2017.
  46. Gibson, Jake (May 9, 2017). Border apprehensions plummet as DHS touts enforcement push. Fox News. May 9, 2017. Retrieved May 9, 2017.
  47. Kasperowicz, Pete (May 23, 2017). DHS: 'Historic shift' in border crossings since Trump's executive order. Washington Examiner. Retrieved June 23, 2017.
  48. Multiple references:
  49. Multiple references: