Talk:Essay: Why I am a narcissist and not bullish on Russia's future

Ukraine and the West are facing a devastating defeat. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 14:49, July 22, 2023 (EDT)

I don't believe that Ukraine will win the war and expel Russia from Ukraine. I also believe that Russia will continue to wreck Ukraine.

But I also believe that any "victory" by Russia as far as the war in Ukraine will be a pyrrhic victory - especially given Russia's likely upcoming demographic winter which this war has worsened. (See:Russia Facing Population Disaster - Demographic Crisis, Employee Shortages & Economic Crisis and Millennials and Gen Z are blaming Putin for intensifying Russia’s baby shortfall: ‘It’s pretty bad for us’, Fortune magazine, December 3, 2022 and Dramatic Population Drop in Russia, as War, COVID and Emigration Exacerbate Declining Births, 6/03/2023).

And I am still not bullish on Russia's future nor am I bullish on China's future (See: [[Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power]]). And although I believe that there may be an economic depression in the 2030s in the USA (which will likely cause a global recession given the size of the USA's economy), I am still bullish on America's future relative to other countries futures (see: [[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]]).

But by all means, feel free to create this essay: [[Essay: Why I am bullish on Russia's future]]. I have doubts that you will create such an essay, but you may surprise me. But please don't expect me to read your essay should you create such an essay as I have a low regard for your opinions on Russia. Conservative (talk) 15:17, July 22, 2023 (EDT)

Notes about updating essay

Russia's GNP overtime in recent years

Russian GNP 1991 to August 2023.

Estimates of Russian GNP 1991 to August 2023 measured in US fiat dollars; exchange rates between the dollar and the ruble ended in March 2022 when the ruble became a gold-backed currency.

Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:

*Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects, Wall Street Journal, August 2023

*The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023, August, 2023

*Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble, Barron's, August 2023

*5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining, Business Insider, 2023

Update essay if Russia's GNP falls significantly or flatlines for a significant amount of time. Alternatively, look at some of the leading economic indicators such as inflation, value of ruble, etc. If the very unexpected happens, change the title of the article to: [[Essay: Why I am bullish on Russia's future]]. For example, Japan radically changed its culture, religious revival, etc. Conservative (talk) 17:57, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

Oh, but if it grows you're going to ignore it. Got it. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 18:08, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

The author of this Essay thinks Ukraine will be another "frozen conflict". A month ago he was saying Ukraine is winning. He hasn't figured out yet Ukraine lost in March 2022.

Don't you understand a thing about Conservapedia:Editing etiquette? Yes, you can go back and fix typos and grammar in your original post after an editor responds; no, you are not supposed to change the context of your post after another editor responds. That is call bad faith editing. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 19:06, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

Update: Look at reviewing the article in about 6-12 months (So February of 2024 or August of 2024)

Update: Look at reviewing the article in about 6-12 months. See: RUSSIAN Economy Starts to Collapse as Current Account Falls 85% & Oil & Gas Revenues Crash in 2023. Conservative (talk) 20:57, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

Since defense spending is a part of GDP, look at Russia's GDP after this war turns into a frozen conflict, etc.

Since defense spending is a part of GDP, as a result of this, look at Russia's GDP a few years after this war turns into a frozen conflict, etc. Conservative (talk) 23:19, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

Wishful thinking. D.C. deep state propaganda. "frozen conflict" is terminology and a phrase used by the US State Dept and & Pentagon to bow out so they don't get blamed. The Russian Federation has other ideas. It's going to be a "frozen conflict" like the people of Saigon and Kabul experienced, not like Korea. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 23:41, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

They're not going to say, "We lost", or "we got our butt kicked" like in Vietnam or Afghanistan; they going to say, "so long and adios, good luck" to Zelensky and call it a "frozen conflict". RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 00:06, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

John Mearsheimer: Russia cannot be pushed back. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 00:09, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

The title is "Since defense spending is a part of GDP, look at Russia's GDP after this war turns into a frozen conflict, etc.

The "etc." indicates there are other possibilities.

I trust this clarifies matters. Conservative (talk) 00:22, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

The problem you have is, you're measuring it all in US dollars, and that is about to change, big time.

You will have to re-calibrate it all in few years from a new base. So you're not building anything you or anybody else can hang their hat on. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 00:29, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

Think about this: Russia got kicked out of the SWIFT international banking network system, so the numbers you use are corrupted. And by the IMF's own calculations, Russia's GDP continues to grow despite sanctions. Additionally, the West seized $300 billion (more than 3 times Ukraine aid) in Russia's foreign reserves held abroad, and Russia is unphased. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 00:47, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

Most of the economic damage to Russia from the war and sanctions will be long-term economic damage (Brain drain, reduction of labor force such as soldiers killed or badly injured, etc, etc, etc.).

Recently, the historian Stephen Kotkin, Research Fellow Michael S. Bernstam, and Sergei Guriev, provost and professor of economics at the Institut d'études politiques de Paris had a discussion related to the sanctions on Russia and the damage caused by the war in Ukraine to Russia which is given below.

Here is that discussion: Sanctions and Russia: Effects, Lessons, and the Future | A History Lab Discussion w/ Stephen Kotkin, August 25, 2023 Conservative (talk) 00:55, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

When Russia had $300 billion in reserves in foreign banks, that was hard cold cash. When Congress voted $165 billion in Ukraine aid out of thin air, how was that paid for? On a printing press, which you pay for now in higher prices everytime you go to the grocery store. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 00:58, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

Now that the West basically stole $300 billion from Russia, no one, not billionaire oligarchs nor national governments, want to hold their cash or reserves in US dollars in one of the 12,000 international banks that are members of the SWIFT banking network, because psychotics like John McCain, Barack Obama, Joe Biden or the EU leadership can blackmail you or seize your money in a moment's notice (like they did Canadian truckers). The West didn't only shoot itself in the foot, it slit its own throat.

Now, the question is, was this just stupidity, or is part of the Great Reset/Build Back Better/Green New Deal agenda, or both? RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 01:07, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

Off topic. The essay is about Russia's future. If you want to comment on the USA, then comment on the talk page of my essay [[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]]. Alternatively, and preferably, write an essay entitled Essay: Why I am not bullish on the USA's future. Conservative (talk) 01:12, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

Whatsamatta, you can't read? I have as much faith that you took away from Prof. Kotkin about as much understanding as you do from Prof. Mearsheimer or Vladimir Pozner. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 01:18, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

You fell into an absolute rage when I said that your depth of knowledge on international relations was not as extensive as Prof. Mearsheimer (who has been an international relations scholar for a very long time). I didn't mean offense by it as I believe I was just stating the obvious.

Also, you think that you can somehow lift yourself by denigrating someone else. The world doesn't work that way. It's totally irrational thinking. And it doesn't bother me one bit as I have been in professions that require a very thick skin. Conservative (talk) 01:26, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

I am definitely not impressed with your views about the USA, China, or Russia. Create the essay Essay: Why I am not bullish on the USA's future and make your best case as that would be the respectable thing to do. Respect is earned. It is not an entitlement. Conservative (talk) 01:34, September 1, 2023 (EDT)

Black Mountain Analysis

You might find this interesting (but don't read just this excerpt, read the entire piece). [2]

To stop the Russians from advancing, Ukraine will literally need to stop the Russians with their bodies. And they will need millions of bodies to prolong the war for another year. Millions of dead. A price the West is ready to pay in order to to kill as many Russians (and Ukrainians), and in the process to destroy as much infrastructure and industry as possible. Well, in fact, the West will pursue this war crime/crime against humanity as far as possible. And this is the point where I try to calm people down. Even though I’m not fully convinced yet, I can’t imagine that the Ukrainian (Russian!) people will follow. They will consider the epically defeated Ukrainian offensive, with tens of thousands of dead people, and the parallel Russian offensive at Kupyansk, with its implications for the immediate future. They will think of the hundreds of thousands of overall dead (400,000) with the corresponding funerals all over the country, and the people will eventually begin to resist. How? That remains to be seen, but it certainly (hopefully?) will avoid the conscription of millions, and the consequent death. Well, the uprising of either the people or some elements within the military should mark the third and last phase of the Ukrainian collapse. As I mentioned many times, the West is winning big in this dimension. The West has achieved the goal to kill as many Russians (Ukrainians and Russians) as possible up to this point. If the war ends tomorrow, the West will be satisfied in that respect. If it ends after additional hundreds of thousands or even millions die, even better. The geopolitical and eventually the economic damage to Russia will be significant. Especially in the struggle for Russia to establish itself as a major player in the emerging world order. Yes, Russia managed the transition and triggered it, but it certainly also wants to be one of the leaders in economic terms. This could be hindered if most resources are bogged down within Russia for reconstruction. Hundreds of thousands of dead and permanently disabled men are also missing from the workforce. Hundreds of thousands of children will never be born because of the dearth of healthy males (fathers) in the resulting population.

RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 18:35, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

You should probably let these guys know you annihilated the entire JFO (with one weird trick!) back in March / April 2022 so they can add another 120k to the total. ConwayIII (talk) 19:27, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

It's coming to that, as soon as the 20,000 remaining NATO forces in Bradley Square are wiped out, with a pincer movement from the north along the Kupiansk front.

Anyways, haven't you heard? WWII Big Arrow offensives are obsolete. We've progressed back to WWI-type trench warfare.

What's interesting is, cheap drones now can kill a single infantry man. That, coupled with facial recognition, has revolutionized warfare. Massed formations of infantry or armor are a thing of the past (GPS satellite technology did that, not to mention land mines). RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 19:34, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

IMO, we need robot soldiers who can fire an AK-47, robot tanks, and unmanned aerial fighters and bombers. It's the only humane thing to do. The US can import all its robots from China, since we don't have the factories or educated workforce to work in them. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 19:52, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

ConwayIII, "Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes."[3]

Putin should have never launched his special operation in February 2022. It started a chain of events that are very tragic. See also: [[Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes|How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes]]. Conservative (talk) 19:41, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

That's interesting data if either side ever declares war; Russia has a Special military operation and Ukraine only has martial law (which makes conscription illegal case the Rada hasn't declared war). We'll remember that information should war ever break out. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 19:45, August 31, 2023 (EDT)

Next update for this essay: The year 2029

Update the essay in 2029 as Russia's GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) ranking in the world has been projected to drop in 2028 by an analyst or analysts.[4]

If it drops, then consider using this as a partial explanation: Russia’s out-of-control military spending. With spending on the war in Ukraine potentially accounting for 45% of Russia’s budget by the end of the year, what are the implications for the rest of the economy?

In other words, guns vs. butter and economics. Conservative (talk) 19:50, September 10, 2023 (EDT)

Oleg Deripaska

File:Doggie Doo Alert.jpg

Doggie doo-doo Alert! [1]

Oleg Deripaska is an FBI informant for Robert Mueller and Peter Strzok Andrew McCabe.

Once again, you have no idea what you are talking about, spewing neo-Nazi and globalist propaganda, and doing CP and the conservative movement more harm than good.

"Gimme back my pen". RobS^{Get thee behind me, Satan} 16:16, November 25, 2023 (EST)

• Oleg_Deripaska#Christopher_Steele_and_Bruce_Ohr
• Oleg_Deripaska#Trump-Russia
• Oleg_Deripaska#Collusion
• Oleg_Deripaska#Robert_Mueller
• Oleg_Deripaska#Andrew_McCabe

It was Donald Trump who added Deripaska to the Russia sanctions list.

The rot in this Essay sounds like it came straight out of Hillary Clinton's mouth. RobS^{Get thee behind me, Satan} 16:44, November 25, 2023 (EST)

So, are you going to correct the globalist neo-Nazi Clintonista information you inserted yesterday from your "informational cocoon"? RobS^{Get thee behind me, Satan} 11:28, November 27, 2023 (EST)

"Concurrent with Ohr, Steele and Deripaska's activities to set up [Carter] Page's Russia visit, Comey and Lynch vilely plotted to turn the patriotic Page from a hero into a Russian agent. They convened a meeting with Andrew McCabe, and the Obama administration's highest-ranking national-security officials Susan Rice, John Brennan, and James Clapper to discuss how Page may be "compromised" by the Russians. Their objective was to use Page to illegally spy on Trump's campaign through a FISA warrant, and to bolster Steele's dossier allegations against Page."

Source: https://www.justice.gov/media/1145736/dl?inline=

Oh, so it wasn't just the Hillary Clinton campaign that manufactured the bogus Trump-Russia smear, it was the FBI, CIA, DNI and Obama National Security Advisor, along with Deripaska's help, involved. Yet here you are denying historical facts and reiterating the fundamental lies that destroyed Donald Trump's presidency.

See also: Essay: Does ignorance, stubbornness, and stupidity define conservativism? RobS^{Get thee behind me, Satan} 17:17, November 27, 2023 (EST)

Pure narcissism stated in the title

"Why I'm not bullish". Who's interested in your narcissistic attitudes and views? RobS^{Zelensky didn't kill himself} 13:48, February 25, 2024 (EST)

Dittos. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 19:04, October 1, 2024 (EDT)

Just ask Andy to speedy this crap and be done with it. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 19:08, October 1, 2024 (EDT)

How old are you?

User:Conservative: Are you the last person on the planet to know, figure out, or be informed that war & inflation go hand-in-hand? RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 14:43, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Does war and inflation always go hand and hand? Did the USA and Britain keep inflation rates low in WWII through two methods? See: Why Putin is in an economic bind, video and The Treasury asked the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low so the government could finance its debt more cheaply. See: The Federal Reserve's Role During WWII.

Does Russia have very high inflation and is it at risk of stagflation:

Russia's inflation problem:

• Russian central bank surprises markets by holding rates at 21% despite sky-high inflation, 10 Philadephia NBC News, December 20, 2024

• Russia’s rising stagflation threat, The Bell, 2024 Conservative (talk) 15:14, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Yep. War & inflation always go hand-in-hand. H.R. 5990, An Act to further the national defense and security by checking . . . inflationary tendencies (Emergency Price Control Act), January 27, 1942 See also Office of Price Administration.

You're a dunce. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 15:31, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Tendencies is not high inflation.

"During World War II, the United States experienced relatively low inflation compared to other wartime periods due to strict government price controls implemented by the Office of Price Administration (OPA), which included rationing systems to manage consumer demand and limit access to scarce goods, effectively keeping inflation in check throughout the war."[5]

But if you want to create your own alternative reality about this matter, then have it. But I am not going to argue with you.

And after all is said and done, Russia has sky-high inflation and faces increasing risk of stagflation. Deny this and lose all credibility. Conservative (talk) 15:41, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Oh, so now you are an advocate of big government solutions to inflation, in addition to pitching globalism & neoconservativism. Okay. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 15:42, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Don't think I didn't notice that you are backing away from your position that wars always causes inflation. Because I did notice. But maybe there is hair splitting going on. "Relatively low inflation compared to other war periods" and high inflation (which Russia has) are very different things. And I see that you still struggle with the concept that there is no free lunch in economics and there are always going to be tradeoffs.

And if Trump negotiates a great deal with Putin concerning the war in Ukraine, Putin staring down the barrel of high-inflation leading to stagflation will be a key factor. And even then, Putin might not be able to dodge the stagflation bullet. Russia may face a difficult post war economy due to the economic pain of transitioning a war time economy to a more civilian economy. Conservative (talk) 15:52, December 26, 2024 (EST)

This essay should be retitled: Essay: I am a narcissistic racist and proponent of globalism, neoconservativism, and big government. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 16:02, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Putin is practicing military Keynesianism and some generous policies to the civilian sector to boost his GNP and mollify the public. The resulting sky-high inflation is popping the rivets out of the SS Russia ship. If Russia keeps taking on water, stagflation will cause its economy to heavily list in the water. Meanwhile, the SS Trump and SS USA ships will be moving forward full-speed ahead! Conservative (talk) 16:13, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Add this to the Trump Effect: WE ARE ABOUT TO FALL OFF A CLIFF. Of course, inflation could delay and prolong the misery for a while. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 16:16, December 26, 2024 (EST)

I still agree with User: Karajou who wrote about you: "You have proven yourself to be no damn good in foreign affairs...".

Feel free to take me up on my challenge at: My challenge to RobSmith about Russia given on August 11, 2024. And feel free to create counter essays to my essays. For example, write an essay at Essay: Why it makes sense to be bullish about Russia's future. Conservative (talk) 16:41, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Well, at least Karajou only trolled the Sysop discussion list with Three Stooges reruns. As to your challenges:

“	Go from the presence of a foolish man, when thou perceivest not in him the lips of knowledge.	”
—Proverbs 14:7

RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 16:49, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Let me add this: What sort of contorted logic and reasoning in your twisted mind leads you think or believe me, or anyone, is "bullish" on Russia or anything? RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 16:53, December 26, 2024 (EST)

You are failing to give me compelling reasons to be bullish on Russia and not to be bearish about the future of Russia.

I still agree with the international relations scholar John Mearsheimer about the future of Russia. "Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time." - John Mearsheimer

Reasons to be bullish on India and the USA:

"There are several reasons to be bullish on India, including its economic resilience, growing consumer class, and improving business environment. India's economy is one of the fastest growing in the world, with a GDP growth of 7.2% in FY23 and 6.5% estimated for FY24. India's GDP growth has surpassed China's in recent years and is expected to continue doing so."[6]

As of late 2023, the US stock market represents approximately 59% of the global stock market value, making it the largest stock market in the world by a significant margin.[7][8]

• Allocation to US stocks hits record high amid 'super-bullish sentiment': BofA survey.

• Why I Remain Bullish on the United States of America.

I rest my case. USA! USA! USA! Conservative (talk) 17:03, December 26, 2024 (EST)

You are full of caca. When did I ever suggest to you to be "bullish", as you misuse the term, on Russian? RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 17:11, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Again, I agree with User: Karajou about you: "You have proven yourself to be no damn good in foreign affairs...".

What you suggest or don't suggest is not important to me. I have a wealth of information about world affairs at my finger tips and I also have access to a wealth of people that are more competent than you when it comes to world affairs.

The USA will be the leading power for the foreseeable future and if you think otherwise, feel free to write a counter essay at Essay: The United States will NOT be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future. Conservative (talk) 17:20, December 26, 2024 (EST)

BTW, I responded to your challenge years ago with Essay: Are ignorance, stubbornness, and stupidity conservative values?, and keeping it updated would be a full-time job. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 18:23, December 26, 2024 (EST)

And no, a Sysop who posts Three Stooges videos in what is supposed to be an email list on policy discussion & direction can't hardly be taken seriously. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 18:26, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Karajou has been around the world and in terms of human relations he has been married to his wife for many years. In addition, he has never divorced. As such, I have far, far more regard for Karajou opinions on international relations and human relations than your inane opinions on these matters. The utter failure of your so-called Team CP (You are the only member) is one of many pieces of evidence that you do not understand interpersonal relations. The CP Civility Association has 9 members. Conservative (talk) 19:03, December 26, 2024 (EST)

So the Two Stooges are in agreement. Who you gonna get to stand in for Curly, Shemp?

I picture Karajou more as the brains of the operation like Mo; and User:Conservative just a wannabee, like Larry. But according to Karajou, this is the stuff for priority discussion on the Sysop email list, so just keep quoting that brainiac. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 21:19, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Wow! Imagine that! One of Conservapedia's resident experts on foreign affairs apparently plagiarized the Three Stooges article. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 21:28, December 26, 2024 (EST)

This essay gives 22 reasons to be bearish about about Russia's future. Give me 22 reasons why I should be bullish about Russia's future. Until you take me up on my challenge (see: My challenge to RobSmith about Russia given on August 11, 2024) or write a compelling counter essay, there is no reason to take your whining and bellyaching seriously. Conservative (talk) 22:05, December 26, 2024 (EST)

Speaking of off-topic subjects, when are you going to become obedient to God, now at the age of 60, to get married, cleave to a wife, and be fruitful and multiply? RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 22:12, December 26, 2024 (EST)

People are literally voting with their feet (See: Essay: Top 12 reasons why people are flocking to the USA and leaving the corrupt, authoritarian countries of China and Russia and Mapped: Millionaire Migration in 2024 from Russia and other countries. Millionaires are moving to the USA. Use some common sense and stop engaging in irrational denialism.

Just admit that you picked the wrong countries to fall in love with (Namely, Russia and China) and that Russia's/China's mass emigration is a clear and compelling sign of this as is millionaires and others flocking to the USA. Your foolish pride in this matter is comical. Conservative (talk) 22:26, December 26, 2024 (EST)