United States presidential election, 2012

The next debate is on January 19, 2012. The next primary elections are on Saturday, January 21, in South Carolina, and then Florida on Tuesday, January 31.

The Presidential Election 2012 is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election. Barack Obama also cannot win reelection unless he carries Florida, where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina.

For the Republican nomination, in early December it seemed to become a two-man race between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, but then Ron Paul ran devastatingly negative political ads against Gingrich in Iowa that dropped Newt to fourth place there. Still, Romney was unable to attain a commanding lead. About 1,214 delegates are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except for Florida, which will be winner-take-all but only half its delegates will count). It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of delegates before June 2012.

Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination

Candidate	Pros	Cons	Trending ...
Mitt Romney	First runner-up in 2008, heavily favored by the Establishment, has business experience, was a Republican governor of a Democratic state who cut taxes and the deficit. Romney is a prodigious fundraiser and tireless campaigner who won the initial primaries in Iowa and New Hampahire. Only 26% of voters said they would never vote for him, which is the lowest negative of any major Republican candidate. Has come out with a new jobs plan. Received endorsements from Kelly Ayotte, John Thune, Chris Christie, Dan Quayle, and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.	Has big weaknesses with "Reagan Democrats," making it unlikely Romney can win the general election: Romney has a pro-abortion record and favors big corporations; Romney also continues to believe in liberal propaganda claiming global warming and is criticized for standing behind his ObamaCare-like health plan in Massachusetts, which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion. Won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008. The lack of criticism of Romney by the lamestream media suggests that they want him to win so that they can defeat him in the general election.	Endorsed by John McCain, John Bolton, and Jon Huntsman after a virtual tie for first place the Iowa caucuses and a solid win in the New Hampshire Primary. He remains strong in national polling, and even has a lead in conservative South Carolina. He's done well in most of the debates so far, yet Romney has done poorly in straw polls, and the majority of Republican voters are apparently still looking for an alternative.
Newt Gingrich	Has the backing of Fox News and will likely receive the endorsement of those who appear on it: Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham (influential in South Carolina), etc.; Newt won the endorsement of the most influential newspaper in New Hampshire; as Speaker of the House in the 1990s, Gingrich had a strong record on "right to life" issues and of passing conservative legislation, including welfare reform, DOMA, the Solomon Amendment, and even term limits. He also had the courage to shut down the government.	Has previously endorsed liberal ideas like "cap-and-trade" (global warming hoax) and a Con Con. Advocated a limited amnesty for illegal immigrants during the November 22 debate. Resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of Bill Clinton; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a woman 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office. Since 9/11, Newt has come to adopt more big-government and pro-regulatory neoconservative views, unlike the push for limited-government and deregulation he spearheaded during the 1990s.	Strong debate performances and the weaknesses of other rivals to Romney pushes Gingrich back to #2, and with Romney unable to gain 50% support in any State there remains an opportunity for his opponents to rally behind Newt. Newt did lose the #1 spot on Dec. 24th due to his failure to qualify for the ballot in Virginia, even though he lives there and is in first place in its polling. Most polls released in November and December put Newt in 1st place, but attacks from other candidates and the media erased his lead. His debate performances have earned him a reputation as the most knowledgeable of the Republican candidates and the one most capable of winning debates against Obama. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates has been brilliant. Still has not done better than 4th place in the first two contests of the election season. Was endorsed by Rick Perry. See: Gingrich Administration for an analysis of his assumed Cabinet.
Ron Paul	Terrific on economic issues, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican; Won the CPAC Poll. Appeals to many social liberals. Runs pro-life ads while Romney says little about the issue. Also, Obama's support in polls is lowest when Paul is his opponent.	Voted twice to repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell, which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienate many Republicans. Other candidates have adopted some of his economic ideas. The media in general treats him as a non-contender despite his performance in polls and the early voting.	Finished a strong third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, and is the only candidate other than Mitt Romney to qualify for the ballot in Virginia; Paul has won at least fifteen regional straw polls and online polls and, surprisingly, won the Values Voter Summit straw poll in a landslide in Oct. 2011.
Rick Santorum	Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by evangelicals, strongly conservative across the board.	His all-out support of RINO and now-Democrat Arlen Specter prevented Pat Toomey from defeating him in 2002, although he regretted it at CPAC 2010; endorsed Romney in 2008. His tax plan has been criticized for adding even more people to the number not required to pay federal income taxes.	Won an upset victory in the Iowa Caucuses, is fabulous in debates and television interviews, but has been near the bottom in polling in some key states (like South Carolina). Campaigned relentlessly in Iowa and succeeded in picking up several important endorsements. Then sagged to only 9% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary.

The Chess Game for the Republican Party

Short form

The short form analysis is this: it probably requires a minimum of $25 million in campaign funds to win the nomination, and more if the candidate lacks a strong conservative base. Many of the candidates are probably looking to big fundraisers for support, but they are unsure of whom to back. Karl Rove, with all of his contacts from the Bush years, may be able to raise $20 million for a candidate; Haley Barbour might be able to raise even more. Fox News and its allies can raise eight figures also, as they helped reelect John McCain as senator in 2010.

The fundraising obstacle is no problem for Mitt Romney. Ron Paul could sustain his campaign as he did in 2008, relying heavily on the internet. Rick Perry has some fundraising strength. Newt Gingrich may be able to raise funds if promoted by the Fox News Channel. But others lacking in a strong base will struggle unless they can obtain the support of either the Bush/Rove group, or Barbour's network, or Fox News and its allies.

Long form

There are three key steps to the Republican nomination: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Mitt Romney won both the Iowa caucus (although Rick Santorum nearly tied him) and the New Hampshire primary.

There are four basic components of the Republican Party. To win the nomination, a candidate needs to obtain the support of at least two out of four:

1. social conservatives (pro-life, pro-marriage, pro-Republican Party platform)
2. libertarians (lower taxes, less government, pro-market, anti-union)
3. religious voters (Baptists, Presbyterians, Catholics, evangelicals, Mormons)
4. neoconservatives (foreign intervention, "better" government)

In 2008, John McCain won the nomination by capturing the support of 1 and 4 above. Ron Paul had the support of 2. Mitt Romney enjoyed support by 2 and part of 3. Mike Huckabee had support of 1 and part of 3. The division of 3 by Romney and Huckabee caused them to block each other: Huckabee blocked Romney in Iowa, and Romney returned the favor in New Hampshire. This dynamic prevented either from winning the nomination.

In 2000, George Bush won with the support of 1 and 3. But John McCain enjoyed the support from 2 and 4 and this enabled him to win the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries, giving Bush a close contest. Some felt McCain mishandled his victory in Michigan.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan had the support of 1 and 2.

Potential Democratic Candidates

McClatchy-Marist survey after the 2010 Midterm elections revealed 46% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters said they don't want President Obama to face a Democratic primary challenge, with 45% saying they do want such a challenge to occur. 40% of Democrats and independents who lean towards the Democrats say they prefer a more conservative challenger, while 39% say they want a challenger who is more liberal. The Marist poll says,

“

Interestingly, a plurality of Democrats – 42 percent – would like to see a more liberal challenger while half of Democratic leaning independents – 50 percent – would like to see a more conservative one.

”

The McClatchy-Marist poll indicates that 48 percent of registered voters nationwide plan to vote against the president in 2012, with 36 percent saying they'll vote to re-elect Obama.

A Quinnipiac University survey released after the 2010 Midterm elections indicated that a plurality of Americans don't think Obama deserves to be re-elected to a second term, and an Associated Press-GfK survey in the same time span indicates that 54% believe Obama should be voted out of office in 2012. Former DNC chairman Ed Rendell suggested on MSNBC, liberal anger over Obama's escalation of the war in Afghanistan could lead to a primary challenge.

The New York Times reported many liberals are so upset over recommendations by the Deficit Reduction Commission which President Obama himself created after the Democratic controlled Congress voted the idea down, "if Mr. Obama were to embrace its major parts, he would invite a primary challenge in 2012." Clarence B. Jones, who was a personal advisor, legal counsel, and close friend of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., has called for a primary challenge to President Obama.

Also Obama's Libyan intervention has raised the ire of many prominent leftists who question the wisdom and legality of the president's actions.

Candidate	Pros	Cons	MSNBC exposure
Barack Obama	Ability to compromise and act in a spirit of bi-partisanship when his back's against the wall and career on the line; he's not Hillary Clinton, and he receives enduring support from the media. Has the historical benefit of being the incumbent.	He depends on a teleprompter to speak, and has run the nation into the ground. Numerous broken and unfulfilled campaign promises, implementation of socialist Obamacare program. Maybe uphill without help from ACORN.	Heavily promoted on MSNBC.
Hillary Clinton	Her criticism of Obama's massive deficits hinted at a possible run against him in 2012, and Ted Kennedy cannot interfere with her nomination this time; moreover, waiting until 2016 is unattractive because she will be 71 then. A recent Bloomberg poll shows she has a 64% approval rating, higher than any other national political figure. Tested the waters with Bill backing a challenger to Obama's Colorado Senate candidate (who then lost), and by Hillary saying she won't serve a second term as Obama's Secretary of State. The chances of Hillary running and winning the nomination increase with every decline in Obama's approval ratings.	Has stated numerous times that she will not seek an elected position once she leaves her current position as Secretary of State. Her feminism is disliked by conservatives, but is popular with liberal women. She'd lose the general election as Martha Coakley did.	Disfavored on MSNBC.

Independent Candidacies -- Mike Bloomberg or Donald Trump

The man who spent $185 per vote to garner 51% of the vote to remain as Mayor of New York City in 2009, Mike Bloomberg, is increasingly looking like an independent, self-funded candidate for president in 2012.

$185 per vote times 50 million voters equals $9.25 billion, which Bloomberg can easily afford as one of the richest men in the world. The catch is that 50 million Americans are not as likely to be persuaded by self-funded campaign ads as 51% of New Yorkers were. Also, it is possible that money is becoming less influential in campaigns, not more so. The most likely result from a Bloomberg candidacy would be a split in the pro-abortion, pro-homosexual agenda vote with the Democratic nominee, facilitating election of the Republican nominee.

Donald Trump is also considering an independent bid for president, particularly after he changed is party affiliation in December 2011 to "unaffiliated". What a difference a few months make. In April 2011, Trump was tied for first in the Gallup Poll among Republican contenders. He forced Obama to take seriously voters' concerns over his birth certificate, and was willing to criticize liberal media; he has business savvy and resources as a billionaire and is well-known. His unscripted, abrasive and arrogant style may be just what voters want, and not being a career politician helps his cause. But he is rightly criticized for his ego and has never held elected office. He would needs to explain his previous support of liberal policies such as socialized medicine, as well as donating to various Democrats including Harry Reid in the past. A reliable poll (Quinnipiac) found that 58% of voters said they would never vote for Trump.

Minor Parties

Party	Candidate	Comments
Libertarian Party	Gary Johnson	The former Republican two-term governor of New Mexico, Johnson favors legalizing marijuana, expanding legal immigration and allowing same-sex unions. Given Ron Paul's libertarian campaign for the Republican nomination and the exclusion of Johnson from most of the debates, there was little room for Johnson as a Republican this election cycle. He announced his candidacy for the Libertarian Party's nomination on December 28, 2011.

See also

• Endorsements 2012
• Swing States 2012
• Presidential Election 2012 (disambiguation) for other presidential elections
• Gubernatorial elections, 2010