Talk:Essay: Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?

Why this Essay?

I wrote the essay Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?

I give 4 major reasons why this happened.

Can anyone think of any other major reasons? Conservative (talk) 13:42, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

Out of ideas already, huh? 12,000 bytes of spam will only get you so far. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 14:08, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

Here's an idea: demonic possession and the Dark Triad personality traits is why multipolar fantasies failed.

Better yet: Essay: Demonic possession and the Dark Triad personality traits will cause self-appointed geopolitics experts to miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 14:12, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

Here's an idea: "Neocon neo-Nazi warmonger David Brooks wrote, The American Renaissance Is Already at Hand is evidence the multipolar fantasy has failed." RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 14:19, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

Here's the problem as I see it: If you had actually read Samuel Huntington's 1996 book, Clash of Civilizations, you wouldn't have denied on April 17, 2022 that civilization had reached a turning point. But you didn't read the book and form any ideas or opinions of your own. Instead, you came up with Huntington by Googling for a few words and phrases to cherry pick a couple of lines for one of your Islamophobic screeds, and to make it sound scholarly, authorative, and researched. And you've never stopped. That's your style. And the more you do it, the more it becomes obvious.

It's simply easier to not pretend, keep your nose out of where it does not belong, and admit when you made an error, rather than spend 18 months writing 2 dozen Essays of pure nonsense and crap. "Yah, but Rob, I get page views". Congratulations. I hope you're proud of being deceptive and misleading conservative students. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 16:38, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

My reply: Essay: The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in geopolitics that will affect geopolitics for 30 years. Conservative (talk) 19:16, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

Feedback

Looks alright to me, Ben. I'd add that it's mostly a product of political extremes: both far-left and far-right actors have their own reasons for promoting a weaker, more fractured international order and more chaos generally.

In terms of how people can so readily ignore so much evidence to the contrary, you should probably have a section on the interplay between motivated reasoning and the Dunning-Kruger effect. ConwayIII (talk) 18:33, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

China’s new satellites extend its military reach, US says. Dem third worlders gettin' a bit uppidy. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 18:41, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

The Dunning-Kruger effect especially affects those who don't actively question and try to falsify their ideas. In other words, they do not practice critical thinking.

Below are some great resources on how political experts and other experts who actively try to falsify their notions/theories achieve superior results and it is based on a significant body of research:

• Professor Philip Tetlock on His Groundbreaking Research About 'Expert Judgment' - video

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip Tetlock - video

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006) Conservative (talk) 18:47, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

OMG. I'm talking to a Trent Toulouse clone now. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 18:53, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

Take heart, my man. The D-K effect is what allows you to sincerely imagine yourself as a historian and scholar of note. ConwayIII (talk) 18:58, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

Not of note. I'm just a chronicler writing a diary. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 18:59, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

Great stuff. The Chronicles of Captain Cauldron: Gentleman & Diarist ConwayIII (talk) 19:14, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

ConwayIII, read THIS.

I am looking forward to the year 2030. Watch the irrational rationalizations of Captain Cauldron then. Conservative (talk) 19:25, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

Haven't you been forecasting the poop hitting the fan in the US of Great Depression proportions in 2030 for some time now? RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 21:22, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

President Trump says “we’re probably heading into a Great Depression now.” RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 13:12, September 13, 2023 (EDT)

Geopolitics

File:Doggie Doo Alert.jpg

Doo-Doo Alert!

User:Conservative proudly has a series he labels: User:Conservative Essays: Geopolitics. Let's see how studied and knowledgeable he is to lay claim to use of that term. Using 2 articles from Wikipedia (yes, as a member of WP's Copy Editor's Guild I found a glaring error in one article, but that section won't be cited here), I will produce a simple narrative,

Haushofer ... specialty was to combine the fields of geography, history, economics, demography, political science, and anthropology into a new discipline that came to be called Geopolitik.

Geopolitik is a branch of 19th-century German statecraft, foreign policy and geostrategy. It developed from the writings of various German philosophers, geographers and thinkers, including Oswald Spengler (1880-1936), Alexander Humboldt (1769-1859), Karl Ritter (1779-1859), Friedrich Ratzel (1844-1904), the Swede Rudolf Kjellén (1864-1922), and Karl Haushofer (1869-1946).

So obviously Haushofer coined the term.

Haushofer was informally interrogated by Fr. Edmund A. Walsh on behalf of Nuremberg Trials prosecutor Robert H. Jackson to determine whether Haushofer should also stand trial. Fr. Walsh ultimately reported to Jackson that Haushofer was both legally and morally guilty of complicity in Nazi war crimes. Citing, "the role of geopolitics in corrupting education into a preparation for war", Walsh accused Haushofer and his associates of being, "basically as guilty as the better-known war criminals."[11] In his later memoir of the Nuremberg Trials, Walsh further alleged that, "The tragedy of Karl Haushofer", was his participation in the, "nationalizing", of academic scholarship and of turning Geopolitik into a weapon supplying, "an allegedly scientific basis and justification for international brigandage."[12]

But User:Conservative proudly wears the title of geopolitical expert.

Karl and Martha Haushofer died together in a suicide pact

Just like Adolf and Eva or Magda and Joseph Goebbels (romantic suicide pacts were all the rage in those days). But these are the people User:Conservative claims intellectual kinship or being an heir. Need I go on?

Haushofer visited Landsberg prison [in 1927] to teach and mentor both [Rudolph] Hess and Hitler.

Haushofer also coined the political use of the term Lebensraum, which Hitler also used to justify both crimes against peace and genocide.

But there is no indication User:Conservative is bothered by any of this in his Russophobic 'intellectual' pursuit.

in 1919, he forged a friendship with the young Rudolf Hess, who became his scientific assistant and later rose to be the deputy leader of the Nazi Party, second in authority only to Hitler. In 1919, Haushofer successfully defended his second dissertation, and became Privatdozent for political geography at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, and was made a professor in 1933

There was no such thing as "geopolitics" in 1933. Haushofer, Hess, and Hitler made it popular and successful. But User:Conservative is oblivious to facts or history. The Russians aren't. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 00:13, September 24, 2023 (EDT)

This is the No. 1 issue facing the planet right now, and we need to hear from our resident Geopolitical expert, whether MPR should be pro-Nazi or anti-Nazi, pro-global fascism or anti-global fascism. This is the purpose of talk/MPR. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 00:42, September 24, 2023 (EDT)

See, if our resident Geopolitical expert were a Cooperative Editor who didn't have his user page locked all the time or goes crying to Andy everytime someone tries to talk to him, he could have been warned about the big pile of doggie doo laying in the middle of the street he was walking into. But no, he has been more consumed with his Russophobic screeds the past year and a half. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 01:10, September 24, 2023 (EDT)

Now, one can argue that the priest who "informally" interrogated Haushofer broke the priest-penitent privilege recognized under the law, but that's neither here nor there, as far as our resident expert is concerned. He don't care. Why should he be troubled or concerned about such trivial things as facts? :::RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!}

Rereading Haushofer's WP bio today, there is all sorts of very interesting information there (I wish User:Geoplitican were here right now). For example,

Haushofer developed Geopolitik from widely varied sources, including the writings of Oswald Spengler, Alexander Humboldt, Karl Ritter, Friedrich Ratzel, Rudolf Kjellén, and Halford J. Mackinder

Mackinder makes a reappearance in our day today, driving the current US policy in Ukraine as outlined by User:Geopolitician in his article on Zbigniew Brzezinski's, The Grand Chessboard. User:Geo is the one who alerted me to this, cause I never paid much attention to anything coming from Brzezinski, the Truman Institute, or any other Democrat so-called "foreign policy" experts. I never even imagined they took themselves seriously, until now. While I recognized Brzezinski as a vehement Russophobe, I had no idea he held such power and influence over leftists and the CFR nearly 20 years after his disastrous tenure as National Security Advisor until User:Geo produced the factual evidence. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 23:52, September 24, 2023 (EDT)