Essay: Why wars and hyper-militarism often make a country weaker

"There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu, Chinese general and reknowned military strategist

The famous military strategist Sun Tzu famously said "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare."

A fundamental rule of economics is "There is no free lunch".

Although war can boost a country's gross national product (GNP) due to the production of military goods, countries that engage in wars and hyper-militarism often hurt their long-term civilian economy. Money that could be spent increasing their labor productivity rate such as money spent in research and development and education is instead spent on wars and an oversized military-industrial complex. In addition, given the barbarity of wars, especially wars of attrition, many times highly educated and technical people will flee a country in order to avoid being drafted. So all the money that a society poured into those individuals goes out the window. Furthermore, in an age of many countries having a subreplacement level of births, wars destroy human capital and can cause labor shortages and make brain drains caused by people escaping a draft worse. In addition, money spent on a war often makes it more difficult for countries to spend money on healthcare so a country's labor force can be plagued more by sickness and premature death.

Furthermore, when a nation goes to war against a country, it often goes to war against a country's allies or at least creates negative feelings among the country's allies. In international trade, bargaining power is very important and when a country's trade partners are restricted due to war (citizens of countries less willing to buy a nation's goods due to them taking sides in war, sanctions, countries raising tariffs against a country due to taking sides in a war, etc.), it has less bargaining power and therefore it may have to sell its good and services at a lower price to various countries. And these restrictions on a country's trade can last long after a war is over.

According to the University of Gothenburg: "Increased inflation figures and rising prices. But not for the first time. In modern history, there are plenty of examples of high inflation and often the common denominator is war or conflict. War has often played a role in inflation. There’s a boom in certain types of production, demand increases and prices are driven up”, says Staffan Granér, Senior Lecturer in Economic History."

The civilian sector drives more innovation in a society than the military sector. Military power rests on economic power

"The civilian sector generally drives more innovation overall. While the military sector can be a catalyst for technological advancements, particularly in areas like defense technology, the civilian sector's broader scope, market-driven incentives, and the large number of innovators create a more fertile ground for innovation in a wide variety of fields."

• The Shift in Technological Innovation from the Defense Sector to the Civilian Sector, Bar Illan University in Israel, 2023 (Israel has a high rate of winning wars and has a lot of innovation in its civilian sector)

Excessive military spending retards general economic growth. Military might is built on economic might

Flag of the former Soviet Union

The essay entitled The Burden of Soviet Defense: A Political-Economic Essay indicates:

“

Soviet military expenditures are estimated to have increased in every year without interruption since 1960. Over the same two-decade period, Soviet economic growth has been visibly decelerating. It is a reasonable hypothesis that the high level and uninterrupted expansion of Soviet military spending have been major factors in the retardation of general economic growth... There is general agreement in the West that the USSR's overall economic growth has been slowing down markedly. Even Moscow's official data attest to that. Western measurements indicate a decline of the growth rate of Soviet GNP from 6 or 7 percent per year in the 1950s to 5 percent in the 1960s and under 4 percent in the 1970s. The last few years have been particularly bleak-aggregate output grew perhaps no more than 1 percent on the average in 1979-1980. Prospects for the 1980s are for further retardation relative to the averages of the past two decades. In some Western projections, the Soviet rate of economic growth could fall to below 2 percent per year by the mid-1980s. Over the same two decades, the Soviet Union has been engaged in building up its military forces without letup, although with some fluctuation in the pace of expansion. There is no longer any significant controversy in the West on that, although there is still disagreement on the rates of increase in Soviet military outlays at different times in this period. At the conservative estimate of 4 to 5 percent growth per year, total Soviet military expenditures must have increased between 2.2 and 2.7 times over the 20 years. Moreover, the CIA tells us that there is no evidence yet of any cutting back on the rate of expansion of Soviet military expenditures, certainly not of reducing or even freezing the current absolute level.

”

In his March 2022 interview with The New Yorker, the international relations scholar John Mearsheimer indicated:

“

I’m talking about the raw-power potential of Russia—the amount of economic might it has. Military might is built on economic might. You need an economic foundation to build a really powerful military. To go out and conquer countries like Ukraine and the Baltic states and to re-create the former Soviet Union or re-create the former Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe would require a massive army, and that would require an economic foundation that contemporary Russia does not come close to having. There is no reason to fear that Russia is going to be a regional hegemony in Europe. Russia is not a serious threat to the United States. We do face a serious threat in the international system. We face a peer competitor. And that’s China. Our policy in Eastern Europe is undermining our ability to deal with the most dangerous threat that we face today.

”

In 2016, Mearsheimer said: "Russia was a declining great power." See: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

For more information, please see: Business is more powerful than military might. All REAL Americans know this!

The large importance of labor productivity for a country

See also: Labor productivity

According to the U.S. Labor Bureau of Statistics, labor productivity is a measure of economic performance that compares the amount of output with the amount of labor used to produce that output."

Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption. As an economy's labor productivity grows, it produces more goods and services for the same amount of relative work. This increase in output makes it possible to consume more of the goods and services for an increasingly reasonable price."

According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country."

Investopedia indicates: "Education tends to raise productivity and creativity, as well as stimulate entrepreneurship and technological breakthroughs. All of these factors lead to greater output and economic growth."

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development states concerning labor productivity: "Labour productivity is a key precondition for high growth of output, employment and wages and central to long-term growth in living standards."

In an economy, one of the causes of wage raises is an increase in marginal labor productivity rates.

"Do you see a man skillful in his work? He will stand before kings; he will not stand before obscure men.' - King Solomon (Proverbs 22:29)

Flag of the United States

The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia

See also: The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia

In terms of the quality of its labor, the U.S. labor market is in line with those of other developed countries.

In 2023, the USA was over 200% more productive in terms of labor productivity than Russia when measured using purchasing power parity. In 2023, the USA was over 400% more productive in terms of labor productivity than China when measured using purchasing power parity.

Wars often increase authoritarianism and creates more propaganda/censorship which lessons creativity and innovation

Statue of the creative Renaissance man Leonardo da Vinci in Tuscany, Italy.

See also: Essay: High income countries are rarely authoritarian countries in our technological age driven by innovation

Countries at war often restrict information and stifle political opposition in order to censor critics of a war. Measures such as internet censorship and press restrictions are common in wars.

Stephen Kotkin is a historian who compiled a highly respected 3 volume work on the life of Joseph Stalin.

Kotkin said of authoritarian regimes, "This is the problem of despotism. It’s why despotism, or even just authoritarianism, is all-powerful and brittle at the same time. Despotism creates the circumstances of its own undermining. The information gets worse. The sycophants get greater in number. The corrective mechanisms become fewer. And the mistakes become much more consequential.”

Creativity, innovation, and technology are increasingly drivers of economic growth and change in the world. And in today's fast-moving world, countries and companies need to adapt to rapid change or quickly fall behind more economically competitive countries.

Openness to experience is important to one's level of creativity. Needless to say, top-down, authoritarian regimes which restrict information, engage in heavy propaganda and oppress dissent, are not big fostering openness in their societies. Thus, their societies have less of an ability to be creative/innovative.

In today's economic climate, there is evidence that in order middle-income countries to become high-income countries, they must escape the middle-income trap and innovation plays a role in this matter.

Additional information: Additional data that high-income countries are rarely authoritarian countries

The Amazon description of the book The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society:

“

A bold exploration and call-to-arms over the widening gap between AI, automation, and big data—and our ability to deal with its effects We are living in the first exponential age. High-tech innovations are created at dazzling speeds; technological forces we barely understand remake our homes and workplaces; centuries-old tenets of politics and economics are upturned by new technologies. It all points to a world that is getting faster at a dizzying pace. Azeem Azhar, renowned technology analyst and host of the Exponential View podcast, offers a revelatory new model for understanding how technology is evolving so fast, and why it fundamentally alters the world. He roots his analysis in the idea of an “exponential gap” in which technological developments rapidly outpace our society’s ability to catch up. Azhar shows that this divide explains many problems of our time—from political polarization to ballooning inequality to unchecked corporate power. With stunning clarity of vision, he delves into how the exponential gap is a near-inevitable consequence of the rise of AI, automation, and other exponential technologies, like renewable energy, 3D printing, and synthetic biology, which loom over the horizon. And he offers a set of policy solutions that can prevent the growing exponential gap from fragmenting, weakening, or even destroying our societies. The result is a wholly new way to think about technology, one that will transform our understanding of the economy, politics, and the future.

”

High income countries are rarely authoritarian countries

Research indicates that in the long-term, non-authoritarian countries are more likely to experience greater economic growth. See: Under Authoritarian Rule and Economic Growth, CORI Working Paper No. 2007-02

Articles that support the thesis that authoritarian are rarely authoritarian countries:

• Is an authoritarian government better for economic development than a democracy? Authoritarianism is a hindrance to sustained economic growth, 2020

Map of high income countries in 2024 (GNI per capita of $13,206 or more)

Negative effects of wars. Frequency and magnitude of wars from 1946 to 2017

Economic:

• The Effect of War on Economic Growth (Also, frequency and magnitude of wars from 1946 to 2017)

• The economic consequences of war

Social:

Domestic violence and other violence increases in countries engaging in war. "Studies have shown that domestic violence—which disproportionately affects women—increases during and after war as stress levels rise, families are displaced, and traumatized combatants return home. This can lead to physical, psychological and sexual violence erupting inside the home." See also: Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics.

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies:

“

Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars... end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.

”

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.

Just War Theory

See also: Just War Theory

Just War Theory is a Christian theory of moral ethics that goes back to Saint Augustine and St. Thomas Aquinas. Just War Theory consists of two primary components, first determining if a war may be justly conducted (jus ad bellum) and how it must be conducted (jus in bello).

Under jus ad bellum, only legitimate authorities can wage war for the right reasons (usually this means a defensive war, or a war of defending the weak against a violent oppressor ) and only as a last resort if every other peaceful means to avert war have been used to no avail. A just war can only be waged if there is a serious evil that needs to be stopped. Further there must be a realistic chance that the evil can be stopped without starting a greater evil. If this happens the war reaches a just conclusion. A war started for just reasons and justly waged may still reach an unjust conclusion.

Minimum force should used be to achieve just goals. Civilian areas without military target should not be attacked. Force used should not be out of proportion to the wrong which the war tries to right. Efforts should be made to minimize casualties, especially civilian casualties. The enemy are also people.

Saint Augustine.

Russia, its war in Ukraine and adverse economic effects

Flag of Russia

War in Ukraine and inflation in Russia

See also: Guns and butter economic concept

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service.

'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram.

See: Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy, CBC News, November 2, 2024 and Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages, Newsweek, October 29, 2024

War in Ukraine and the falling value of the Russian ruble

• Charted: The Decline of the Russian Ruble, Visual Capitalist website, December 4, 2024

Great power politics and its negative effects on national character

In a 2012 Forbes magazine interview, the Russian novelist and historian Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn said about great power politics: "For every country, great power status deforms and harms the national character. I have never wished great power status for Russia, and do not wish it for the United States."

User: Conservative's essays

• User:Conservative's essays

See also

• Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?

External links

• The Economic Effects of World War I: Debt Leads to Chaos