Changes

While I would love for the [[Republican Party|Republicans]] to honor the wishes of its Republican base and cut aid to Ukraine and would like to be pleasantly surprised if they do, Professor Mearsheimer has correctly pointed out several times that the Republican Party doesn't listen to its base when it comes to foreign wars and the elites that are warhawks usually get their way.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7EOKBF1nbQ Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer | SpectatorTV]</ref> The military/industrial complex and its lobbyists usually prevail despite the wishes of the American public.  Furthermore, for various reasons, such as Donald Trump arming the Ukrainians before the war in Ukraine (Stinger missiles, etc.), Meaersheimer is highly skeptical that if [[Donald Trump]] were to win the presidency in 2024 that he would end the war quickly (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7EOKBF1nbQ Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer]). I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.  

While I would love for the [[Republican Party|Republicans]] to honor the wishes of its Republican base and cut aid to Ukraine and would like to be pleasantly surprised if they do, Professor Mearsheimer has correctly pointed out several times that the Republican Party doesn't listen to its base when it comes to foreign wars and the elites that are warhawks usually get their way.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7EOKBF1nbQ Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer | SpectatorTV]</ref> The military/industrial complex and its lobbyists usually prevail despite the wishes of the American public.  Furthermore, for various reasons, such as Donald Trump arming the Ukrainians before the war in Ukraine (Stinger missiles, etc.), Meaersheimer is highly skeptical that if [[Donald Trump]] were to win the presidency in 2024 that he would end the war quickly (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7EOKBF1nbQ Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer]). I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.  

[[File:Flag of Russia.png|right|thumbnail|275px|Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). ]]

[[File:Flag of Russia.png|right|thumbnail|275px|Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). ]]

If Donald Trump (or some other Republican) is elected in 2024, maybe Donald Trump (or that Republican) will surprise me and strike a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as early as 2024 or 2025 (Long-shot events do sometimes happen as evidenced by anyone who has ever seen a black swan). But even if such a thing were accomplished, things will flare up to some degree after such a peace agreement.  

If Donald Trump (or some other Republican) is elected in 2024, maybe Donald Trump (or that Republican) will surprise me and strike a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as early as 2024 or 2025 (Long-shot events do sometimes happen as evidenced by anyone who has ever seen a black swan). But even if such a thing were accomplished, things it will be difficult to maintain and/or have flare up to some degree afterward.  

Although I can potentially see the war in Ukraine ending in 2025 if Trump or another Republican is elected (Ukraine is not of vital national interest of the USA), it seems unlikely given the animosity between Russia/Ukraine now and other factors mentioned in the video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine].  

Although I can potentially see the war in Ukraine ending in 2025 if Trump or another Republican is elected (Ukraine is not of vital national interest of the USA), it seems unlikely given the animosity between Russia/Ukraine now and other factors mentioned in the video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine].  

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and that is the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). Once again, I agree with him on this point. He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would have flare-ups and I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). Once again, I agree with him on this point. He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ_DZSHHRMc Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18]</ref> I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.

Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.

Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.