Swing state

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Swing states are states in which neither the Republican nor Democratic candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the election results in either direction. They are also known as "battleground states" because they are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. Since states that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic of Republican candidate are usually referred to as blue states and red states, respectively, these states are also called "purple states" in order to highlight their mixed demographical nature. It is expected that hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by Super PACs will be spent in these swing states in the fall of 2012.

Here are the key swing states for the Presidential Election 2012: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, for a total of 96 electoral votes.[1] A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win, and Obama won with 95 additional electoral votes in 2008. Assuming that Republicans win Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, this entire election could be decided in only Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio.

Expected winner 2012 State Margin of Obama's win in 2008 Indicators Electoral Votes in 2012
Toss up Ohio 4.6% Ohio voted Republican in the 2010 elections, but the public unions repealed the collective bargaining reforms by popular vote. This indicates heavy union influence who always vote democrat. 18
Toss-up Iowa 9.5% 6
Toss-up Colorado 9% Pro-life, pro-Christian Tim Tebow's phenomenal success for the Denver Broncos helped improve the culture there. 9
Toss-up Virginia 6% Elected a Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, in 2009. In the 2011 elections the Republican party took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature. Obama will probably lose this state by 5-10 points in 2012. 13
Romney leads by 7 points as of May Florida 2.8% Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor Rick Scott is currently (Dec. 2011) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50% and without Florida his reelection is unlikely. 29
Leaning Republican win due to same-sex marriage issue. North Carolina 0.3% The current Democratic governor, Bev Perdue, is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. 15
Leaning Democratic Nevada 12.5% A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for Republican Mark Amodei. Harry Reid won reelection in 2010 despite Tea Party opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. 6

Additional states that Obama carried by a wide margin in 2008 might become possibilities for a Romney victory in 2012 if he improves in the polls:

State Margin of Obama's win in 2008 Indicators Electoral Votes in 2012
Michigan 16% Mitt Romney, though not ideal for the average conservative, grew up in Michigan and could put it into play. His father, George Romney, served as governor of the state. 16
Leaning Democratic New Hampshire 9.6% Romney has some roots here and was governor of nearby Massachusetts 4
New Mexico 15% 5
Pennsylvania 10% Obama's disapproval rating is high: 54%, and Republicans swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against Hillary Clinton.[2] 20
Leaning Democratic Wisconsin 13.9% Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their labor union allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election. The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. 10

Affect on Policy

Swing state politics is having an enormous influence on policy: Obama's abrupt change in deportation policy was probably due to how Mitt Romney has erased Obama's lead in the key swing state of Colorado, and narrowed the lead in Nevada and Virginia, all of which have large Hispanic populations.[3]

2008 Swing States

See also

External links

References

  1. ↑ http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/05/26/national/a080145D80.DTL#ixzz1w1roz7XG
  2. ↑ Quinnipiac poll done late September 2011
  3. ↑ http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/233037-obama-takes-action-on-deportations-as-romney-closes-gap-in-swing-states
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