Major events in the Ukraine proxy war, 2026

Main article: NATO war in Ukraine

Ukraine had been warned that any attack on Russian infrastructure would be responded to in kind. But Ukraine continued attacks on Russian cities which led to deaths and serious problems in Belgorod and elsewhere.

For three years Russia had mostly refrained from attacking Ukrainian infrastructure. Electricity and heat supply operated at peace time levels with foreign funding. Only since 2025 did NATO/Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure increase. In March 2025 President Trump announced a 30-day infrastructure ceasefire. Russia committed to it. Ukraine did not.

In January 2026, Siversk, the longest ongoing battle in the NATO/Ukraine war, fell.

The Pokrovsk cauldron, January 2026.

Assassination attempt on President Putin

Former Russian Federation President Dmitry Medvedev's reaction to the 2025 Assassination attempt on President Putin.

On the night of December 28-29, 2025, 91 drones were launched against the strategic command center located at Russian President Vladimir Putin's personal residence in the Novgorod region. All drones were reported shot down. The incident, occurring during the personal meeting between Ukrainian dictator Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Florida created much anger and speculation in the Russian Federation about who was responsible for the attack.

Flight path of drone attack.

The Ukrainian dictator at first denied knowledge or involvement. Speculation quickly shifted the UK's MI6 because they had the means and motivation to disrupt and stall President Trump's 28 point peace plan. Questions quickly emerged about President Trump, or his inner circle's own possible involvement. Given the way the negotiations were being handled by the Trump 2.0 administration outside regular diplomatic channels between the Russian Federation and the US Deep State, the questions were entirely valid.

Trump called Putin shortly before Zelensky arrived, and asked him to stand by and he would be called back after Trump and Zelensky conferred. Meanwhile, the origination of Putin's phone call was GPS located, and the massive drone attack commenced. When Trump called Putin back, Putin informed him of the attack. Speculation immediately arose in Russian intelligence services whether President Trump personally could be trusted, or if there were leaks within Trump's immediate inner circle.

The attack obviously was intended to derail President Trump's peace negotiations. The ex-comedian and television star Zelensky is largely viewed as a figurehead who has outlived his usefulness as a fundraiser for the corrupt money laundering war mafia as the loss of US contributions have dried up. Speculation abounded that Zelensky's opponents in the Ukrainian war party with UK and possibly American deep state CIA aid launched the attack to embarrass Zelensky.

The Russian Duma began talk about upgrading the Special Military Operation to a state of war which would grant the President special powers and allow the use of conscripts outside Russian territory. Mobile Oreshnik systems began combat service in Belarus on December 30, 2025.

Ukraine drone strike on New Year's Eve celebration

As the clock struck midnite, a Ukrainian drone strike carrying incendiary bombs killed at least 24 civilians, including a 5 year old and injured more than 50 during New Year celebrations in the village of Khorly, Kherson region. Russian authorities claim the attack targeted a hotel and café filled with civilians, sparking a massive fire and widespread chaos. Graphic images from the scene show burned buildings and casualties. The bodies of the dead victims were burnt beyond recognition.

Another drone occurred in Moscow shortly after President Putin concluded his televised News Years Greeting to the nation and world minutes before midnite.

Oreshnik strike on Lvov State Aviation Repair Plant

Oreshnik strike on the Lvov State Aviation Repair Plant, January 9, 2026.

Russia's second-ever use of the Oreshnik was a response to three recent provocations. These are the CIA/MI6/Ukraine's attempted assassination of Putin right before New Year's, France and the UK's official plans to deploy troops to Ukraine if a ceasefire is agreed to, and the US' seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker in the Atlantic Ocean.

Reports indicate the Bilche-Volitsko-Uhersky underground gas storage facility in Stryi was struck a few minutes before midnite on January 8, 2026, which has a storage capacity of 17.05 billion cubic meters or more than 50% of the total capacity of all storage facilities in Ukraine and the largest in Europe. According to the Military Air Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Oreshnik was traveling at 13,000kmph or Mach 10.9 (10.9 times the speed of sound).

Reports stated Russia notified the US three hours prior to the launch, which makes sense because the launch of an ICBM-like vehicle could be interpreted by early warning missile detection systems as a nuclear first strike. It's clear the US knew well in advance given there was “unusual activity” reported in Kapustin Yar.

On Monday January 12, 2026 the Russian Ministry of Defense corrected the misperception which appeared in media over the weekend. The true target of the Oreshnik strike was the Lvov State Aviation Repair Plant. The plant was being used to service Ukraine F-16s and MiG-29s supplied by Western countries. The plant also produced long-range and medium-range attack UAVs used to hit Russian facilities inside Russia.

War at sea

John Helmer reported:

“

As Lavrov pointed out, as clear as day, while the Americans have been negotiating a tactical withdrawal from the Ukrainian battlefield because they are losing and want to conserve their forces from total capitulation and destruction, the Americans have been escalating at sea. So, they’re attacking every single major sea route. They seized the Russian flag vessel the Marinara was reflagged as it sailed off the coast of Scotland near Iceland. They are expanding in the Baltic through Estonia, Poland, and Germany. They’ve expanded in the south in the central Atlantic off the coast of France. They’ve expanded aggressively in the Danish straits through Denmark. We’ve talked about all of these incidents. Attacks off the coast of Crete in the Mediterranean. Vessels, Russian vessels have been sunk. So-called sabotage off the coast of Algeria at the end of 2024. And I’m not even including the war at sea in the Black Sea. So what we have, including the most recent seizure of vessels, is what Lavrov called piracy. Now piracy happens when vessels are not Russian flagged … not all working for Russia, only about 15% of them, are Russian flagged, but the speed at which Russian flagging has occurred is now accelerating. The question then becomes—and it’s a fraught question, a controversial question in Moscow right now—What can the Russian Navy, what can the Russian air force, what will the commander-in-chief agree to do, to defend this fleet from US attack? And you can very well understand when Lavrov says this level of attack on our vessels, on our trade, whether it’s flagged or not, it’s still Russian trade, is an escalation that violates—no matter what understanding was reached in Anchorage. So now they’re having an argument. And in December, Admiral Alexander Moiseyev, the Russian naval commander, published a piece in a military magazine, Military Thought it’s called in English, arguing that you must have Russian naval protection to keep the trade routes open. Now, that’s easier said for the Arctic route because there’s a Russian shore, there are Russian bases. It’s not so easy to project Russian naval power far off Russian shores where the US has bases. And we’ve just seen a major interception and seizure of a vessel, not a Russian flagged vessel, in the Indian Ocean. The Americans, for the time, have been keeping it secret. It appears to have been in the western Indian Ocean and it takes a lot of effort for the US Navy and its shore bases—Singapore, Diego Garcia, and elsewhere—to mount these operations. However, it’s clear it’s a war against Russia at sea, it’s clear it’s got an economic target, and it’s clear that Dmitriev and that faction in Moscow have nothing to add to the defense and they don’t want their business-as-usual doctrine to be undermined if there’s a clash between Russian naval support for Russian flagged vessels.

”

Ukrainian casualties

The Blob is ready to throw in the towel.

Acting commander of the Azov Brigade Bohdan Krotevych told an interviewer that he does not believe official Ukrainian statistics on Russian losses at all, and in fact claims that the real losses are "significantly smaller" than what is claimed. Top Ukrainian officer channel run by Stanislav Bunyatov, a Junior Sergeant in the AFU's 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" shocked followers by stating that after the war, Ukraine's true losses will be found to have been 5 times higher than official figures.

Escalation: Maritime Strikes

Ahead of Orthodox Easter, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a ceasefire during the holiday. The temporary truce took effect at 4:00 p.m. on April 11, 2026 and end at the close of April 12, 2026. During this period, hostilities were suspended on all fronts, including deep strikes against Ukrainian energy and military infrastructure. The Ukrainian side has not yet responded clearly to this initiative. Kyiv used the lull on the front lines to its advantage, but the situation did not change strategically. Therefore, Ukraine was prepared to take the riskiest steps just to prolong the war.

The Ukrainian conflict could expand significantly and extend beyond the country’s borders. Reports indicate that the Kyiv regime, with the help of Norwegian Navy military specialists, is planning terrorist attacks against Russian ships traveling by sea in the Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea from the port of Murmansk and back. A group of 50 Ukrainian servicemen from the 385th Separate Brigade of Special-Purpose Naval Unmanned Systems arrived in Norway. Together with Norwegian Navy Special Forces Command specialists, Ukrainian military personnel are practicing using unmanned underwater and surface systems in the Norwegian Sea.

Modern naval science has yet to find an effective way to counter maritime drones. These weapons are relatively simple to manufacture, making it possible to produce them on a large scale. Instances of unmanned boats have been reported not only in the Black Sea, but also in Middle Eastern waters. Neither military nor civilian ships have effective means of countering these drones.

Vessels from Russia or linked to Russia have long been at risk of not only attacks but also hijacking. Tankers have repeatedly been seized by NATO countries. The seizing has occurred under various pretexts. Europe’s primary goal is to disrupt the supply of Russian energy resources to global markets. Consequently, the situation in the Northern Seas is escalating significantly. The Russian Navy has begun escorting some of its tankers through international waters.

NATO would not dare engage in an open confrontation with Russia at sea to disrupt its maritime logistics routes. Therefore, a relatively independent actor is needed to carry out attacks on Russian ships, and Ukraine is ideally suited for this role. However, this shortsighted move could also backfire. An attack on any vessel in northern waters will increase insurance costs for everyone traveling that route. Ultimately, the end consumer, primarily in Europe, will pay the increased price.

NATO attacks from the Baltic States

IN early 2026 the NATO Baltic States began to allow Western-financed Ukrainian drones to transit in attacking Russia, but some of the Ukrainians decided to betray their benefactors and attack a Latvian oil facility for reasons that remain unknown—one theory being that Russian electronic warfare specialists took control of the Ukrainian drones and “landed them” in the appropriate place as payback.

A diplomatic kerfuffle blew up into a full-on crisis in Latvia, with the announced resignation of the Latvian defense minister over this dangerous violation of international norms and law. But the shocking news came a day later, when it was revealed the defense minister had not actually resigned as believed, but was in fact fired by Latvian prime minister Evika Silina: Only a day after that, the Latvian prime minister herself suddenly resigned, as the entire government essentially collapsed within a week over this very issue of unchecked Ukrainian drone incursions.

Ukraine expands the war: Belarus threat and southern logistics collapse

A new area of tension emerged in northern Ukraine. It refers to the entire border region with Belarus. On May 22, 2026 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of a potential attack from Belarus. ‘The threat is not just to Kyiv and Chernihiv, but also to the Volyn, Zhytomyr, and Rivne regions,’ he said in an evening address from Rivne. Zelensky even threatened a preemptive strike against Belarus. ‘If there is a threat from Belarusian or Russian border regions, Ukraine is prepared to act preemptively,’ he said.

These statements are not empty rhetoric or political PR. According to reports, the Ukrainian leadership has already begun rapidly fortifying the terrain in border areas for defensive operations. Madyar, commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forces, said that Ukraine has identified the first 500 targets in Belarus that will be struck if Lukashenko decides to go to war on Russia’s side. Preparations are also underway to evacuate some populated areas.

Ukrainian troops are using drones to scout targets in Belarus. On May 26, 2026 Alexander Volfovich, Secretary of the country’s Security Council, reported this. ‘Every day, our air defense systems detect combat drones crossing the border between Belarus and Ukraine. In some cases, these are not accidental attacks, but rather, attempts to strike border infrastructure. There were 116 such incidents late May 2026 alone. Forces on duty responded to them 59 times,’ Volfovich stated. He also addressed the issue of Ukrainians illegally crossing the border to flee forced mobilization. ‘Over the past month, 76 violators have been detained. Some of them are spies with specific missions.’

Overall, an armed conflict with Minsk would be advantageous for Kyiv. The Belarusian army lacks combat experience and advanced technology for producing and using unmanned systems of all types. Consequently, holding onto the territories under its control will not require diverting too many forces and resources from the main theaters of the Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky will have a compelling reason to demand new financial assistance and large quantities of arms from his Western allies.

Meanwhile, the situation for Russian forces in southern Ukraine risks deteriorating sharply. Ukrainian forces have increased the range of their guided drones significantly, in some cases extending it up to 100 km. Near Berdyansk, at roughly this distance, a rear supply convoy was destroyed. Similar strikes have increased sharply across the entire former Ukrainian territory. At the same time, the strikes have focused on supply tankers and trucks. By fall 2026, this will lead to the complete paralysis of logistics from the Kharkiv region to Crimea, which will make continuing hostilities impossible.

Starobilsk school bombing and retaliation

Ukraine dictator Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the targeting of a college dormitory in Starobilsk, Lugansk on May 22, 2026. Twenty-one students were killed and 46 seriously injured. It was not a military target. Yana Lantratova, Russia’s human rights commissioner, said that 86 ​teenagers aged 14 to 18 had been asleep inside the hostel belonging to Lugansk Pedagogical University’s Starobilsk college when three waves of Ukrainian drones attacked during ​the night.

Ukraine’s military denied the Russian accusations and said it had struck an elite drone command unit in the area. It said that ​Kyiv complied with international humanitarian law.

Putin said in a televised statement, “There are no military facilities, intelligence service facilities, or related services in the vicinity. Therefore, there ⁠is absolutely no basis for claiming that the munitions struck the building as a result of our air defense or electronic warfare systems. The ​strike was not accidental; it came in three waves, with 16 drones targeting the same location,” Putin told officials. Russia responded with an Oreshnik strike on decision making centers near Kyiv.

See also

• American foreign policy
• Major events in the Ukraine proxy war, 2022‎‎
• Major events in the Ukraine proxy war, 2023‎‎
• Major events in the Ukraine proxy war, 2024
• Major events in the Ukraine proxy war, 2025