National debt of the United States

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Under President Obama, the National debt surpassed 106% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Under President Trump, the U.S. Government sent hundreds of billions to private citizens to ensure the economy would not suffer the shutdown costs of losing momentum during the lockdowns prescribed by epidemiologists for the global Wuhan Virus pandemic. By September 2020, the unemployment rate had recovered to no worse than the level during the Obama/Biden Administration in September 2012, and the Congressional Budget Office called the measure successful. The Greek Debt Crisis of 2010 was precipitated when Greek debt reached 115% of GDP, but in the form of non-fiscal-related emergency measures it now takes, today's jump in debt ratio has little effect on U.S. Government creditworthiness.[1]
Federal spending allocation in 2011
Federal spending allocations in 2018

The National debt of the United States is the amount of money the United States Federal government owes various creditors due to deficit spending.

As far as the national debt of the United States, according to noted business school Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, "As of September 30, 2023, the federal “debt held by the public” (herein, “debt”) stood at $26.3 trillion, or about 98 percent of projected GDP."[2]

As of December 2021, the National debt of the United States was about $31 trillion in national debt. In December of 2021, that was about  $96,371 per American.[3]  

In addition, American taxpayers have been paying into the USA retirement program Social Security and its medical program for seniors called Medicare for decades.  The Social Security and Medicare programs are now unfunded liabilities. If one combines the United States national debt with the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare, each American owes more than $500,000.[4]  Many USA taxpayers will be unable to collect the amount they put in Social Security and Medicare by the time they need it because the programs will be cut back by then. In all likelihood, the Social Security and Medicare programs will become means tested. See: Prof. Antony Davies: 10 Myths About Government Debt

Debt of the US - Analysis of Bush and Obama presidencies

On January 20, 2001, the day of George W. Bush's inauguration into office, the national debt of the United States was 5.7 trillion dollars, and by the end of his run in office (January 19, 2009) it was at 10.6 trillion dollars.[5] Five years into Barack Obama's term, Obama had already outborrowed Bush's entire debt load during his 8-year term at about $7.0 trillion borrowed vs. $4.9 trillion, but comparing these figures masks an important distinction—slower economic growth.

The production of the U.S. economy is measured by its gross domestic product or GDP, and its increase (and during recessions its decrease) from year to year measures economic growth (or decline) in the form of goods and services produced. GDP figures generally become more accurate over the years as more precise accounting is employed. The latest GDP revisions to measurements for recent years are from 2016.

From April 1, 2001 to March 31, 2009, the economy produced $18.4 trillion over and above March 31, 2001 GDP levels which was its productive growth for that time period. Relative to that amount, the U.S. Government went $4.9 trillion into debt for U.S. Government consumption or redistribution (or rather "pre-distribution" since the money to this day hasn't been collected yet from taxes) or an amount equal to 27% of the entire productive growth of the U.S. for that time period.

From April 1, 2009 to March 31, 2017, the U.S. economy produced $18.5 trillion (actually less than the Bush Administration due to inflation) over and above March 31, 2009 GDP levels which was its productive growth for that time period. Relative to that amount, the U.S. Government went $8.7 trillion into debt for U.S. Government consumption or redistribution (again, "pre-distribution" because to this day not collected from taxes) or an amount equal to 47% of the entire productive growth of the U.S. for that time period. In other words, for the eight years of Obama's administration, every new dollar produced by the U.S. economy above the productive level at the beginning of the Obama administration was matched by forty-seven cents borrowed on behalf of the government (over and above all federal taxes collected during that time) and dedicated to government consumption or redistribution.

Some have made the remark that under high taxation, we are slaves to the government. If slavery is defined as having all the fruits of one's production seized, it is not true that a person is a slave to the government in America, but given these facts, it is hard to deny that under the eight years of the Obama administration our country's productive growth may figuratively nearly hold the status of one, the consequences of whose was to be applied in the future. This is because its federal government spending entailed having 47% of it financed (dedicated to be paid for) by future taxes and other revenue, and whose debt is considered to be especially misapplied unless used largely for the sake of probable future requirements and growth rather than spending in the present day as much money as can be made available.

Assignment of responsibility

This comparative analysis, made to fit the time periods of the figures of the first paragraph of this section, is not without its rough edges. The percent of growth spent under Obama may be higher when it is factored in that much of Bush's spending in his last year in office ($0.6 trillion) took the form of a series of loans to mostly private companies, not new consumption or redistribution, that, taken together, was completely paid back to the government during Obama's administration.[6]

A second factor is that it was Obama who signed legislation for much of budgeted Fiscal Year 2009 (which begins October 1, 2008), when under normal circumstances it would have been all signed into law by Bush.

Debt per capita

The national debt per capita, which means what an individual's debt burden would be if each member of the U.S. population were assigned an equal share of the U.S. federal debt, as of March 31, 2017, was $61,000 (or $244,000 per family of four) assuming a U.S. population of about 325,000,000.[7] These values jumped by $2,000 and $8,000, respectively, in the single month of November 2015. The new debt accrued in the single fiscal year 2014 was $3,400 per single member of the U.S. population or $13,500 per family of four, and the new debt accrued from April 1, 2009 to March 31, 2016 was $25,200 per each member of the U.S. population or $101,000 per family of four. See table below.

Debt to GDP ratio

See also: Graphs of the U.S. national debt as a percentage of GDP

Liberals love to make the argument that the debt to GDP ratio doesn't matter. When, in fact, the debt to GDP ratio exceeds 100% it means the total amount of income each person receives per year, including the cost of food and necessities, is borrowed money owed to creditors. The level of federal debt held by foreigners also means taxpayers must pay that debt by exporting capital outside the country, which capital cannot be used in country to circulate and create employment.

Instead of measuring an absolute number, the debt to GDP ratio is the measurement of the national debt as a percentage of the gross domestic product. It is a measure of the debt in relation to the economy and of our capacity to carry and repay debt.[8] The US Debt to GDP ratio was getting larger (during Fiscal Year 2015, it shrank slightly due to irregularities in debt issuance, but quickly regained its upward trend), as the US economy's debt was growing faster than the GDP. The debt-level has recently stabilized, and the debt to GDP ratio has accordingly begun to drop slowly in a growing GDP economy.[9] This has not always been the case: During the last 8 presidential administrations (pre-Obama), the US Debt to GDP ratio was reduced under Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton; but increased under Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush.

Debt ceiling

For a more detailed treatment, see Debt Ceiling.

The debt ceiling is a limit imposed on the Treasury by Congress. The Treasury may not issue debt in excess of this amount to fund government operations. In February 2014, the debt ceiling was suspended altogether until March 2015, and was last raised on February 7, 2014 to $17.212 trillion, a nearly 5 trillion dollar increase in less than four and a half years in spite of attempts by conservative Congressmen to reduce spending.[10]

Raising the debt ceiling is not the same thing as going further into debt to spend more money, since spending is dictated by the Federal Budget or continuing resolutions, but it does allow the Federal Government to meet any new financial obligations up to the ceiling, if and when new spending arises, through accepting money from new debt-holders. It is not certain what would happen if the national debt reaches the debt ceiling without action by Congress. Liberal politicians and pundits, including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, claim that government would default on its obligations, causing global financial markets to collapse. Many financial market experts and conservatives, especially TEA Partiers opposed to raising the debt ceiling, see no evidence that a default would occur in such a situation.[11] However, in 1983, when Congress was debating whether to raise the debt ceiling, Ronald Reagan said:

“The full consequences of a default — or even the serious prospect of default — by the United States are impossible to predict and awesome to contemplate. Denigration of the full faith and credit of the United States would have substantial effects on the domestic financial markets and the value of the dollar in foreign exchange markets. The Nation can ill afford to allow such a result. The risks, the costs, the disruptions, and the incalculable damage lead me to but one conclusion: the Senate must pass this legislation before the Congress adjourns.”[12]

The national balance sheet not only reflect borrowing by the Treasury to reflect fiscal policy, it can also be affected by the Federal Reserve system to reflect monetary policy. The overall impact of national debt on the national standard of living can be moderated by interest rates and tax policy. This is because the federal government must pay the interest on the debt and then collect it from taxpayers to varying degrees.

US National Debt as a percentage of GDP

Historical graph of the U.S. national debt as a percentage of GDP.

United States bond rating

On August 5, 2011, the bond rating service Standard and Poor's, a company which rates the ability of institutions to repay their debt, lowered the United States federal government's long-term debt rating from AAA to AA+ for the first time since their ratings began in the early 1940s (a decrease never occurred even during World War II) and gave the government's credit a negative outlook, warning that unless the rate of new government spending were reduced, there would be grounds for lowering the rating again.[13]

Notes

Recent additions to U.S. federal debt[14]
Fiscal year (begins
Oct. 1 of year
prior to stated year) 		GDP
$Billions
[15] 		New debt
for
fiscal year
$Billions 		New debt
as
% of GDP 		Total debt
at end
of FY
$Billions
[16] 		Total debt
as % of GDP
at end of FY
(Debt to GDP
ratio) 		U.S.
Popu-
lation
mil-lions
[7] 		New debt (over
and above all
federal taxes
paid during
fiscal year) per
family of four
$dollars 		% of
total
debt
for-
eign-
owned
[17] 		Fed.
Reve-
nue,
$bill-
ions 		Fed.
Reve-
nue
as
% of GDP
1977 $2,050 $63–64 3.1–3.2% ~$703 34.4–34.8% 221 ~$1,150 14.0% $356 17.4%
1978 2,300 70–73 3.1–3.2% ~774 33.8–34.0% 223 ~1,280 16.5% 400 17.4%
1979 2,550 53–55 2.1% ~828 32.2% 226 ~960 14.0% 463 18.2%
1980 2,800 80–81 2.9% ~908 32.5% 228 ~1,410 13.5% 517 18.4%
1981 $3,150 $ 86–90 2.8% ~$  996 31.7% 231 ~$1,550 13.5% $599 19.0%
1982 3,300 142–144 4.3–4.4% ~1,140 34.4% 233 ~2,450 12.5% 618 18.8%
1983 3,550 234–235 6.6% ~1,370 38.8% 235 4,000 11.5% 601 17.0%
1984 3,950 193–195 4.9% ~1,570 39.6–39.8% 237 ~3,250 11.0% 666 16.8%
1985 4,250 251–253 5.9% ~1,820 42.6% 239 ~4,200 12.0% 734 17.2%
1986 4,550 302–303 6.7% ~2,100 46.8% 241 ~5,000 12.5% 769 17.0%
1987 4,800 225 4.7% ~2,350 49.1% 243 3,700 12.0% 854 17.8%
1988 5,150 252–255 4.9% ~2,600 50.5% 246 ~4,150 13.5% 909 17.6%
1989 $5,550 $255–267 4.6–4.8% ~$2,850 51.4% 248 ~$4,200 13.5% $991 17.8%
1990 5,900 338–376 5.7–6.4% ~3,200 54.2–54.6% 251 ~5,700 14.5% 1,032 17.4%
1991 6,100 392–432 6.4–7.1% ~3,650 58.8–60.0% 254 ~6,500 14.0% 1,055 17.2%
1992 6,450 399–404 6.2–6.3% ~4,050 62.2–63.2% 258 ~6,250 14.0% 1,091 17.0%
Fiscal year (begins
Oct. 1 of year
prior to stated
year) 		GDP
$Billions
[15] 		New debt
for
fiscal year
$Billions 		New debt
as
% of GDP 		Total debt
at end
of FY
$Billions
[16] 		Total debt
as % of GDP
at end of FY
(Debt to GDP
ratio) 		U.S.
Popu-
lation
mil-lions
[7] 		New debt (over
and above all
federal taxes
paid during
fiscal year) per
family of four
$dollars 		% of
total
debt
for-
eign-
owned
[18] 		Fed.
Reve-
nue,
$bill-
ions 		Fed.
Reve-
nue
as
% of GDP
1993 $6,800 $347–349 5.1% ~$4,400 64.0–65.0% 261 ~$5,350 14.0% $1,154 17.0%
1994 7,200 281–292 3.9–4.1% ~4,650 64.6–65.2% 264 ~4,300 14.5% 1,259 17.4%
1995 7,600 277–281 3.7% ~4,950 64.8–65.6% 267 ~4,150 16.5% 1,352 17.8%
1996 8,000 251–261 3.1–3.3% ~5,200 65.0–65.4% 271 ~ 3,800 19.0% 1,453 18.2%
1997 8,500 188 2.2% ~5,400 63.2–63.8% 274 2,750 23.0% 1,579 18.6%
1998 8,950 109–113 1.2–1.3% ~5,500 61.2–61.8% 277 ~ 1,600 22.0% 1,722 19.2%
1999 9,500 127–130 1.3–1.4% 5,641 59.3% 280 ~ 1,850 23.0% 1,827 19.2%
2000 10,100 18 0.2% 5,674 56.1% 283 253 18.5% 2,025 20.0%
2001 $10,550 $  133 1.3% $ 5,807 55.2% 286 $ 1,860 17.0% $1,991 18.8%
2002 10,850 421 3.9% 6,228 57.5% 289 5,830 19.0% 1,853 17.0%
2003 11,300 555 4.9% 6,783 60.1% 292 7,610 21.5% 1,782 15.8%
2004 12,050 596 5.0% 7,379 61.4% 294 8,100 24.5% 1,880 15.6%
2005 12,850 554 4.3% 7,933 61.8% 297 7,460 24.5% 2,154 16.8%
2006 13,650 574 4.2% 8,507 62.4% 300 7,660 24.0% 2,407 17.6%
2007 14,300 501 3.5% 9,008 63.0% 303 6,610 25.0% 2,568 18.0%
2008 14,750 1,017 6.9% 10,025 68.0% 306 13,300 28.0% 2,524 17.2%
2009 $14,450 $1,885 13.1% $11,910 82.5% 308 $24,500 30.0% 2,105 14.6%
2010 14,850 1,652 11.1% 13,562 91.4% 310 21,300 32.0% 2,163 14.6%
2011 15,400 1,229 8.0% 14,800 96.0% 313 15,700 33.0% 2,303 15.0%
2012 16,050 1,276 7.9% 16,066 100.1% 315 16,200 34.0% 2,450 15.2%
2013 16,600 672 4.0% 16,738 100.8% 317 8,480 34.0% 2,775 16.8%
2014 17,350 1,086 6.3% 17,824 102.8% 319 13,600 34.0% 3,021 17.4%
2015 18,100 327 1.8% 18,151 100.3% 322 4,060 33.5% 3,250 18.0%
2016 18,550 1,423 7.7% 19,573 105.5% 324 17,600 31.5% 3,268 17.6%
2017 $19,300 $  671 3.5% $20,245 105.0% 326 $  8,240 31.0% 3,316 17.2%
2018 20,350 1,261 6.2% 21,506 105.8% 328 15,400 29.0% 3,330 16.4%
2019 21,200 ~1,205 5.7% ~22,711 107.2% 330 14,600 30.0% 3,462 16.4%
2020 (Oct. '19-Jun. '20 only) ~3,758 ~17.8% ~26,477 ~125.6% ~330 ~45,500 ~27.0%

See graph caption at top of page for information on current debt to GDP ratio.

The symbol "~" means "about" or "approximately".

In May 2019, FY 2018 debt figures and dependent statistics were revised in this table to reflect updated information from the Treasury Department.

GAO audit report of total debt for FY 2016, completed in November 2016, added to the end of FY 2016 figures as a correction.

In July 2016, the BEA released a revision to 2013-2016 GDP figures. The figures in this table were corrected in February 2017 for the years in that range of figures (at the same time the July 2016 monthly preliminary figures for FY 2016 were added).

On July 30, 2015 the BEA released a revision to 2012-2015 GDP figures. The figures for this table were corrected [1]
on that day with changes to FY 2013 and 2014, but not 2015 as FY 2015 is updated within a week with the
release of debt totals for July 31, 2015.

In December 2014, the source for the U.S. population was changed to include armed forces living abroad, and the
two last columns of the table were revised slightly [2] (and a minor transposition error in FY 1998 and 1999
corrected in addition) to reflect the change.

On June 25, 2014 the BEA announced a 15-year revision of GDP figures would take place on July 31, 2014.
The figures for this table were corrected [3] on that day with changes to FY 2000, 2003, 2008, 2012, 2013 and 2014.

The more precise FY 1999–2017 debt figures are derived from Treasury audit results.[19]



The variations in the 1990s and FY 2015 GDP figures are due to double-sourced or
relatively preliminary GDP figures, respectively.

The U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis performed a revision of GDP figures in 2013.

Debt and political officeholders

Share of current U.S. federal debt by presidency, November 30, 2015
Presidency Share of
total debt
accrued in
2015 dollars[16][20]
Barack Obama 47.0%
George W. Bush 23.0%
Bill Clinton 8.5%
George Bush 7.5%
Ronald Reagan 9.0%
Jimmy Carter 1.5%
All other Presidents 3.5%


Share of current U.S. federal debt by Speaker of the House, June 30, 2020
Speakership Share of
total debt
accrued in
2020 dollars[16]
Nancy Pelosi (second term), D (2019-2020) 17.0%
Paul Ryan, R (2015-2018) 14.5%
John Boehner, R (2011-2015) 15.5%
Nancy Pelosi, D (2007-2010) 20.0%
Dennis Hastert, R (1999-2006) 11.5%
Newt Gingrich, R (1995-1998) 3.0%
Thomas Foley, D (1989-1994) 7.5%
Jim Wright, D (1987-1989) 2.0%
Thomas P. O'Neill, D (1977-1986) 6.0%
Carl Albert, D (1971-1976) 1.0%
John W. McCormack, D (1962-1970) 0.5%
All other Speakers 1.0%
Rounding error (added to make shares total to 100%) 0.5%

See also

contrast with:

References

  1. ↑ United States Congress, Congressional Budget Office (July 27, 2010). "Federal Debt and the Risk of a Fiscal Crisis". www.cbo.gov
  2. ↑ WHEN DOES FEDERAL DEBT REACH UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS?, Penn Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania]
  3. ↑ You owe more than $500,000 — and counting, The Hill, 12/14/21
  4. ↑ You owe more than $500,000 — and counting, The Hill, 12/14/21
  5. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named TreasPenny
  6. ↑ Tracy, Ryan et al. (December 19, 2014). "Bank bailouts approach a final reckoning". The Wall Street Journal website. Retrieved on April 11, 2015.
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 "Total population: All ages including Armed Forces overseas" (2014-). Economic Research: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved on December 4, 2014 and later.
  8. ↑ The Skeptical Optimist (January 29, 2005). "National debt burden: full history". TSO (The Skeptical Optimist).
  9. ↑ Steve McGourty United States National Debt (1938 to Present) May 6, 2007
  10. ↑ "H. J. Res. 45 (111th): Increasing the statutory limit on the public debt" (2010). govtrack.us. Became Public Law 111-139: Statutory Pay-as-You-Go Act of 2010.
  11. ↑ Hurlbut, Terry A. (May 16, 2011). "Debt ceiling reached, sky does not fall." Conservative News and Views
  12. ↑ Thepresidentialcandidates.us (May 17, 2011). "Ronald Reagan on raising the debt ceiling". 2012 The Presidential Candidates
  13. ↑ Multiple references:
  14. ↑ The Executive Office of the President of the United States, Office of Management and Budget (February 14, 2010). "Historical Tables: Table 7-1; 10-1", The White House. Retrieved February 15, 2010.
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "National Economic Accounts: Gross Domestic Product: Current-dollar and 'real' GDP". BEA.gov. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 Multiple references:
  17. ↑ Multiple references:
    • 1994-1999: U. S. Department of Treasury (March 2005). Treasury Bulletin, p. 51. Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office.
    • 2000-2014: U. S. Department of Treasury (November 2014). "Major foreign holders of treasury securities". Department of Treasury website. Retrieved on December 29, 2014. Update link.
  18. ↑ Multiple references:
  19. ↑ Multiple references:
  20. ↑ United States Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt. "Monthly statement of the public debt (MSPD) and downloadable files". TreasuryDirect. Retrieved April 8, 2014.

External links

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