Difference between revisions of "Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes"
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Mearsheimer predicted the [[war]] in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wi_0oiZ7vU Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War]) | Mearsheimer predicted the [[war]] in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wi_0oiZ7vU Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War]) | ||
| − | In July of 2023, Professor [[John Joseph Mearsheimer]] | + | In July of 2023, Professor [[John Joseph Mearsheimer]] indicated that he believes that the will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine]). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time. |
| − | + | Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ_DZSHHRMc Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18]</ref> I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point. | |
| − | + | On August 23, 2023, ''Axios'' reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."<ref>[https://www.axios.com/2023/08/23/white-house-ukraine-war-aid-congress-support White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid], Axios, 2023</ref> By November of 2023, after a failed Spring offensive by Ukraine, a Ukrainian top aide was slamming the West over their war fatigue.<ref>[https://www.politico.eu/article/top-zelenskyy-aide-slams-west-over-war-fatigue/ Zelenskyy’s top aide slams West over ‘war fatigue’], Politico, 2023</ref> | |
| + | |||
| + | A ''Japan Times'' article published on November 6, 2023 entitled '''We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning'': | ||
| + | {{Cquote| In eastern Ukraine, where another grueling winter is descending — along with it a likely freeze in major frontline movements — one Ukrainian soldier had a grim assessment of the conflict. | ||
| + | The 35-year-old fighting near the war-battered town of Bakhmut went further than comments from Ukraine's most senior military official, who conceded this week that the war with Russia had reached a stalemate. | ||
| − | + | "I've been saying that for some time now already. Step by step we're losing the war," said the serviceman, who uses the call sign "Mudryi" (Wise). | |
| − | |||
| − | |||
| − | + | "The longer this static war continues, the worse it is for us," he said in a phone interview.<ref>['We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning]</ref>}} | |
| − | + | Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]] and [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state. In addition, I predict that American/NATO taxpayers will continue to pay for this boondoggle with their tax money for several more years. | |
Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security. | Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security. | ||
Revision as of 22:13, November 8, 2023
John Joseph Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.
Mearsheimer predicted the war in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War)
In July of 2023, Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer indicated that he believes that the will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See: INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.
Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer). He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.[1] I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.
On August 23, 2023, Axios reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."[2] By November of 2023, after a failed Spring offensive by Ukraine, a Ukrainian top aide was slamming the West over their war fatigue.[3]
A Japan Times article published on November 6, 2023 entitled 'We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning:
| “ | In eastern Ukraine, where another grueling winter is descending — along with it a likely freeze in major frontline movements — one Ukrainian soldier had a grim assessment of the conflict.
The 35-year-old fighting near the war-battered town of Bakhmut went further than comments from Ukraine's most senior military official, who conceded this week that the war with Russia had reached a stalemate. "I've been saying that for some time now already. Step by step we're losing the war," said the serviceman, who uses the call sign "Mudryi" (Wise). "The longer this static war continues, the worse it is for us," he said in a phone interview.[4] |
” |
Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a pyrrhic victory (See: Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse and Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state. In addition, I predict that American/NATO taxpayers will continue to pay for this boondoggle with their tax money for several more years.
Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.
How long do post WWII wars last? Some relevant statistics.
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine
| “ | Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[5] | ” |
Russian defector reveals that a 'majority' of people inside the Kremlin are unhappy with the war in Ukraine
See also: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?
- Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, June 2023
- Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine, ABC News video, July 2023
Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy
- Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy by Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin, National Burea of Economic Research, Working Paper 31187, April 2023
Endgame for the Ukrainian War
An Endgame for the Ukrainian War w/ John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen, 9-9-2023
Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about
See: Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about
The specific month of April 2022 was not a pivotal point in international politics that will affect international politics for 30 years
Economic effects of the war on Russia
See also: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future
Russian oil and gas revenue is down
Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas:
Russia's economy is not highly diversified. It is too dependent on oil and gas. See: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines
Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas. China's economy is having significant problems compared to its past. If China's economy gets worse (And there is some evidence that China's future economy will may worse this decade and beyond), that is going to hurt the Russian economy.
"Even the act of diverting supplies to Asia entails a significant reduction in Russian companies’ profit margins. It costs a lot more to transport oil to Asian markets than to Europe, and there is not much spare transport capacity, which pushes up the cost of freight, reducing the profit made by Russian companies, whatever the amount at which the price is capped.
The price cap also enables Asian buyers to obtain big discounts on Russian oil. China and India may not officially be enforcing the cap, but it’s hard to imagine that companies from those countries will not use it to barter the price down. Indeed, this is already happening: some shipments to China due to be loaded onto tankers in January were sold at $5–6 cheaper per barrel than usual."[7]
Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas.[8]
Countries with diversified economies are more resilient and stable:
Booz & Company was a global strategy consulting team established in the United States in 1914. The firm was acquired by PwC on April 4, 2014.
Below is the executive summary of their report entitled Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification
| “ | The effects of the recent global economic crisis were allpervasive, and demonstrated that no economy is safe from destabilizing external events. Resource-dependent countries, with their narrow base of economic activity, are particularly vulnerable, but all countries may have vulnerabilities stemming from a lack of diversification in one or more economic dimensions, and they must be more vigilant in managing risks to their economies. Not only must a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) be balanced among sectors, but key elements of its economy must be varied, flexible, and readily applicable to a variety of economic opportunities, and areas of overconcentration must continually be identified and mitigated. Policymakers should work to achieve greater economic diversification, in order to reduce the impact of external events and foster more robust, resilient growth over the long term.
For resource-rich, developing economies, the immediate imperative is to diversify export-oriented sectors, but for the benefit of long-term sustainability, they must also look at the larger picture. A strong institutional and regulatory framework and workforce development initiatives are indispensable to the diversification effort; and proper management of human capital is key, especially in those countries experiencing a “demographic dividend.” Implementing such comprehensive diversification and risk management strategies won’t be easy, but the result—a diverse, stable, and growing economy—is worth the effort.[11] |
” |
Related articles:
Other major economic effects of the war in Ukraine on Russia
It is a capitalization-weighted composite index, which means that companies with larger market capitalization will constitute a larger percentage of the index's value.
Post the war in Ukraine, the MOEX index is down. However, in May of 2023 it was reported that the MOEX Russia Index has gained 24% in 2023 after tanking 42% in 2022.[12] Russia's stock market is boosted by domestic investors who have few options amid sweeping sanctions.[13]
Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:
*Russian ruble slides to 16-month low against U.S. dollar as capital flight, shrinking trade surplus bite, Marketwatch, August 14, 2023
*Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects, Wall Street Journal, August 2023
*The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023, August, 2023
*Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble, Barron's, August 2023
*5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining, Business Insider, 2023
Russia's demographic crisis has been made worse by the war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has aggravated a crisis that long predates the conflict. See: Russia's fertility rate and Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia
Russia's fertility rate of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.[14] It's fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.
Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.[14] And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.[14]
Russia will go out swinging (Ukraine, etc.), but its age demographics (which is among the worst in the world in terms of an aging population) and other problems will cause a cultural collapse in Russia in the 21st century (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series). See: Russia's fertility rate and Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia
Russia, fertility rate and demographics videos:
- Demographics of the Orthodox Christain world by Peter Zeihan
- Russia's Demographic Crisis Explained - TLDR News
- Updates on Russian Demographics
- Russia’s Demographic Crisis is Getting Worse
- (Russia is DONE) Russia's Catastrophic Demographics Collapse is Here.
The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse (See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse).
Other articles related this war in Ukraine making Russia's demographic crisis worse:
- Russia Facing Population Disaster - Demographic Crisis, Employee Shortages & Economic Crisis
- Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die, The Telegraph, February 2023
- Millennials and Gen Z are blaming Putin for intensifying Russia’s baby shortfall: ‘It’s pretty bad for us’, Fortune magazine, December 3, 2022
- Dramatic Population Drop in Russia, as War, COVID and Emigration Exacerbate Declining Births, 6/03/2023
For more information, please see:
- Russia's 'catastrophic' missing men problem, The Week, 2023
- Russia’s population shrinks and China’s ages, Shifting demographics are posing unprecedented challenges for China and Russia, 2023
User: Conservative essays on international politics
General essays on international politics
- The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?
- What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?
- Why has the West been so successful?
The United States
China
Russia
See also
External links
- John Mearsheimer - Geopolitical Stalemate - A Recipe for Endless Conflict
- What We’re Not Being Told About the War in Ukraine by Daniel Kovalik
- ‘There’s no deal to be had here.’ John Mearsheimer on Ukraine and Russia
- Why modern wars never end. Violence has morphed from a political instrument into an economic resource, but this is only one of five reasons for today’s never-ending conflicts, German Times, 2019
- List of conflicts by duration
References
- ↑ Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18
- ↑ White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid, Axios, 2023
- ↑ Zelenskyy’s top aide slams West over ‘war fatigue’, Politico, 2023
- ↑ ['We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning]
- ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
- ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
- ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
- ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
- ↑ Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High, Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023
- ↑ Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High, Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023
- ↑ Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification, Booz & Company, 2011
- ↑ Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high, Business Insider, 2023
- ↑ Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high, Business Insider, 2023
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure, bne IntelliNews, 2022