Talk:Essay: April 2022 was a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come

Some lame excuse about something or other

You made a prediction that the SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2020 was going to determine the future of global politics for 30 years. I debunked this notion at: Essay: The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years.

There is a great book on forecasting by the political science writer and political science professor Philip E. Tetlock entitled Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction which has some fascinating information. And the book has received a lot of positive reviews by various people involved in forecasting.

Although most forecasters are not good, Tetlock says the good and great forecasters keep a track record of their failed predictions vs. their successful corrections and try to learn from their failed predictions. And they actively try to falsify their particular judgments/opinions on various matters. RobSmith, I have asked you to tell me political predictions that he made that have failed to occur and you didn't give me any. So I have quite a bit of skepticism that you are a good political forecaster or that you judgments on various geopolitical matters is sound.

I also noticed that on the [[Bill Browder]] article you fought tooth and nail to admit that you made a mistake (I cover this on the talk page of the Bill Browder article). Tetlock says that excellent political experts actively try to falsify their various notions. So you should ask yourself if you have the necssary intellectual humility to be outstanding when it comes to your various political judgments. See: Falsifiable.

That's incorrect. You were supposed to hang a fact tag, and leave it at that. But you trolled me for two hours, reverting the fact tag. Then you spammed that lie across the wiki. RobS^{Zelensky didn't kill himself} 08:09, January 30, 2024 (EST)

Watch the video Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? | Philip Tetlock. And consider reading the book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006). Conservative (talk) 01:39, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

I didn't make a prediction. I made a declarative statement based on known facts at the time. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 01:46, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

I see the quote at the top of this page RobSmith. You made a prediction. Conservative (talk) 01:47, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

It's a simple declarative statement based upon observable data at the time, like torn up treaties, for example. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 01:51, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

I recall you saying how great a place Russia is to live. It appears as if you are wrong about this matter too according to the empirical evidence. See: [[Essay: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?]]

You probably have various talents. But your political predictions and political judgments are not among your topnotch talents. Conservative (talk) 01:57, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

I have no idea what you are talking about.

Your response back in April 2022 to my simple declarative statement told me you (a) were not paying attention to world events, and (b) had no interest or understanding of international relations. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 02:03, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

Is "it will rain tomorrow" a declarative statement or a prediction? Guess what: it is both. MayGodBless (talk) 11:50, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

Oh, thanks. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 11:58, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

So let's delve into this a bit farther. I said, "This month will determine the future of global politics for the next 30 years." Yes, it was specific, "30 years", not a generalized statement like, "for decades to come." And yes, it was bait. The proper response would have been, "Why do you say/think that?", not a confrontational contradiction from a know-nothing. I was just fly casting to see if there was anybody out there actually informed or qualified to discuss a difficult subject.

In his pride, he took the bait. There isn't much more to be said or discussed after he's expended months and months showing off to the world that he doesn't have a clue what he's pretending to know and talk about. His trolling, while it can sometimes affect me, really is trolling his own followers and Conservapedia readers. He's pushing neo-fascism in his perceived effort to hold fast to his contradictions.

Look no farther than his praise for "the incompetent British economist and pedophile John Maynard Keynes" who fostered the economic theories that created [https://www.conservapedia.com/Talk:Essay:_The_United_States_will_be_the_leading_power_in_the_world_for_the_foreseeable_future#What_a_joke "A great strength of the United States is its very consistent growth of its GNP over decades and its quick recovery the few times its GNP has gone down."] RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 12:53, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

So one minute Keynesianism and the Obama stimulus is an incompetent fraud, and the next minute [https://www.conservapedia.com/Essay:_The_United_States_will_be_the_leading_power_in_the_world_for_the_foreseeable_future#U.S._GNP_growth piling on the national debt & inflation, to refute me, is the best thing since sliced bread] ([https://www.conservapedia.com/File:USA_GNP_growth_from_january_1947_to_January_2023.jpg spammed over 11 pages]).

IMO, and let me make this clear, I'm just one person with one personal opinion, this is a contemptuous attitude toward Conservapedia readers and disrespect toward conservative principles in general. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 13:36, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

I think you do know what I am talking about. But feel free to engage in last wordism. Conservative (talk) 02:05, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

I think I don't know what you are talking about. You impress me as a kind of person always seeking a messiah or savior from the present world, a fortune teller, prophet, or somebody who can give you a tip on the stock market or racehorse. Me? Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof. I know how it's all gonna end, anyways, so I take no thought of the morrow. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 02:11, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

RobSmith, you told me that you are very much a novice when it comes to psychology. So your psychological evaluation of me is even less impressive to me than your political judgments - especially since you are a gossiper. Conservative (talk) 02:19, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

Again, you're all over the map. I have no idea what "predictions" & "psychology" have to do with broken international agreements. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 02:23, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

John Mearsheimer is not a sorcerer as you think. In 2015 he was simply speaking on known, observable data at the time about broken agreements. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 02:28, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

If you violated an agreement not to expand NATO one inch beyond the Oder-Neise line, it's no different than cheating on your wife. And you can bet it will end in a messy divorce. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 02:32, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

Joe of Good Lawgic here gives a good take here on your entire international relations perspective. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 03:21, October 23, 2023 (EDT)

If the Russians were smart, they would have gotten that commitment in writing. Verbal agreements are worth squat. They fell for NATO's trick; hook, line, and sinker. MayGodBless (talk) 11:30, October 28, 2023 (EDT)

'If the Russians were smart'...I guess the Russians are just a bunch of stupid "Semite-led untermenchen" in your perspective, huh? RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 11:38, October 28, 2023 (EDT)

I am not saying the Russians are dumb. I am saying that they fell for a trick, big time. MayGodBless (talk) 17:57, October 28, 2023 (EDT)

At every turn in history, the Russians have been outmaneuvered by the West. MayGodBless (talk) 17:58, October 28, 2023 (EDT)

Yep. Hitler and his 27 allies from Western states certainly outsmarted and outmaneuvered Russia. So did Napolean. RobS^{Give Peace a Chance!} 18:07, October 28, 2023 (EDT)

They both lost to the winter and their own hubris. A more apt example would be in World War I, when the Germans cleverly smuggled Lenin into the country and humilated Russia with the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Or the Russo-Japanese War. Or with NATO expansion. Or in WW2, when the allies let the Commies bleed themselves out against the fascists. Hook. Line. And. Sinker. MayGodBless (talk) 22:38, October 28, 2023 (EDT)

They pulled out of Kyiv under a false pretense. Hook. Line. And. Sinker. MayGodBless (talk) 22:40, October 28, 2023 (EDT)

It is Russophobic to argue that the Russians blundered that badly on their own. MayGodBless (talk) 22:41, October 28, 2023 (EDT)

Geopolitics

Moved from User:Conservative/mailbox at the editor's suggestion

User:Conservative: Look, in the geopolitical, foreign policy, international relations game, you're not even playing at the amateur level. You've done enough damage already to President Trump's election prospects, the conservative movement, and the Republican party. The smart thing to do is to take a temporary hiatus while quietly watching and learning. No one will think less of you for that. In fact, it would be seen as the wise thing to do, for now. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 21:55, April 22, 2024 (EDT)

Since I have written my essay at [[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]] both China and Russia have grown significantly weaker in terms of economics, demographics and their ability to engage in innovation.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia suffers from: dogged very high inflation; a significant risk of stagflation according to the Bank of Russia; a very great depletion of its sovereign fund; a lower value of the Russian ruble; a great depletion of its Soviet era tanks which is expected to run out of in 2025; an attempted insurrection from the Wagner Group; a growing unhappiness with the war among the Kremlin according to a credible source[1]; a growing reluctance of Russians to serve in the military; and a worse demographic crisis.

And while I am certainly a proponent of learning, it will certainly not be from you who has gullibly swallowed the propaganda of communist China and Russia. Conservative (talk) 10:41, September 30, 2024 (EDT)

Mearsheimer does not believe that Russia is a peer competitor to the USA. He believes Russia is a declining power. Also, April 2022 was not what you claim it is

1. REDIRECT Template:Hide collapse

Do you think that February 2022 was a more pivotal month in global politics than April 2022? If not, why not? Is Russia in decline?

Question: Do you think that February 2022 was a more pivotal month in global politics than April 2022? If not, why not?

"Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire."[2] Do you agree with quote or disagree with this quote? How does this stat relate to April 2022's importance?

Is the USA more pivotal in global politics than Russia? If not, why not? Is China more pivotal in world politics than Russia? If not, why not?

Do you agree or disagree with this statement of John Mearsheimer: "Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time." - International relations scholar John Mearsheimer. Do you agree with Mearsheimer that Russia is a distant third great power in relation to the USA?[3] If not, why not? If you agree that Russia is a distant third great power in relation to the USA, is this distance widening? If not, why not? Conservative (talk) 15:08, November 7, 2024 (EST)

User:Conservative: You & I are not engaged in any sort of discussion or debate until you learn some common manners and cease trolling. You can begin by using your talk page for private dialogue between you & me and cease your rude treatment of my attempts to discuss issues and matters with you.

Until such a time, your repeated public postings to engage me in discussion or debate, after being informed here that I will not engage with you in any sort of "debate" or "challenge", will be deemed trolling and/or harassment. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 15:16, November 7, 2024 (EST)

We both know why my talk page is the way it is. And if you would stop pestering me with your inane political opinions/commentary/obsessions that I do not care about for a very significant amount of time, I might actually read your posts to my user mailbox at Conservapedia instead of reverting them and not reading them. When obsessive people pester me about their political opinions, I rightly assume that they are desperate and that they lack good manners. Conservative (talk) 15:35, November 7, 2024 (EST)

No we do not both know why you refuse to engage on your talk page as normal editors do.

And if my "inane political opinions/commentary/obsessions" are not of interest to you, why do you repeatedly publicly troll me with "debate challenges"? Never mind. You are trolling right now. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 15:49, November 7, 2024 (EST)

To make the point that your inane political obsessions/opinions lack evidential support and that you merely wish they were true rather than truly believe they are true, I have issued you two challenges which you have failed to take me up on (My challenge to RobSmith given on August 11, 2024 concerning Russia and My challenge to RobSmith about China given on August 11, 2024). Until you take me up on my challenges, I will continue to believe that these obsessive, political opinions of yours have merit. Conservative (talk) 16:41, November 7, 2024 (EST)

One last note: Virtually all questions you asked above have been answered, in some cases, years ago. Unlike yourself, I do not repeatedly spam postings to dozens of pages. If you want answers, (a) listen the first time, (b) go look for them yourself. This sort of spamming and trolling habits of yours is what I object to.

One place you can look for my answers to your challenges & questions above is in the reversions and deletions of you user talk page. In the meantime, cease your trolling and harassment. RobS^{The Truth. Just Putin It Out There} 16:48, November 7, 2024 (EST)

I just read this

"To the Ukrainians’ dismay, there was a crucial departure from what Ukrainian negotiators said was discussed in Istanbul. Russia inserted a clause saying that all guarantor states, including Russia, had to approve the response if Ukraine were attacked. In effect, Moscow could invade Ukraine again and then veto any military intervention on Ukraine’s behalf — a seemingly absurd condition that Kyiv quickly identified as a dealbreaker."[4]

If true, this points to the Russians negotiating in bad faith.

Of course, if this is true, it comes as no surprise that JD Vance said the Russians were asking for too much in the current 2025 negotiations. Conservative (talk) 17:17, May 11, 2025 (EDT)

Russia has a seat on the UN Security Council - that's what the passage references. Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 17:33, May 11, 2025 (EDT)

It's a ridiculous and crazy change. And to top it off, Russia is being ridiculous and crazy again in 2025 amidst a grinding war of attrition as it is suffering from a Russian demographic crises. JD Vance said that Russia is asking for too much in 2025 which is true given its weak major power status. Conservative (talk) 17:39, May 11, 2025 (EDT)

Look at your sources: the neocon globalist NYT.

If you haven't figured out yet that the CIA & NYT regurgitate the CIA-trained Ukro nazi claptrap statistics and talking points verbatim, I don't know what to tell ya. Go back and reread some of your own contributions: Propaganda#Identifying_propaganda. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 18:07, May 11, 2025 (EDT)

At issue here in your criticism of a "veto" (which Zelensky & Ukraine agreed to), is international law under the UN Charter vs. the US "Rules Based Order", also known as the Liberal World Order which you are hellbent on advocating. It's just another example of your confusion and contradictions. You first became involved in these discussions after enthusiastically embracing Prof. Mearsheimer's video, "The Death of Liberal Democracy". It only serves to expose that you don't even understand what "liberalism" is. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 21:06, May 11, 2025 (EDT)

User:Conservative: So you have wasted 3 years in preparing the American people for what is happening & and about to happen (not to mention destroying Conservapedia's readership in the process). A time comes to STFU & consult before spamming & trolling.

Yes, there is a place for your mindless Patriotism. But you have aligned them with Neo-Nazi, fascist & anti-Semitic elements. You need to learn to consult & cooperate before spamming. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 13:46, May 24, 2025 (EDT)

We're seeing history made today

In addition to MIRVs being unleashed on large scale for the first time, Russia has unveiled a mobile laser weapon for front combat against drones. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 23:00, June 15, 2025 (EDT)

The Soviet Union had lots of military hardware and it fell. Russia has double the economic/social instability of China. A perfect storm of low oil prices and a worsening of an already bad economy would sink the SS Russia. That is what happened to the former Soviet Union. Conservative (talk) 14:11, August 22, 2025 (EDT)

Don't misunderstand me, but I will attempt to engage with you on an intellectual plane. (1) The Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union. (2) While Russia has changed, the United States military industrial complex is the same military industrial complex from the Cold War, only bigger and worse. (3) The Soviet Union collapsed because of its overspending on military hardware & projects from 1945-1989, a danger the United States now faces. (4) "Russia has double the economic/social instability of China." Unfounded CIA propaganda. The same could be said, "The United States has double the economic/social instability of Russia & China", witness the events of recent years (Obamunism, George Floyd riots, stolen elections, lack of democracy, J6 false flag, interest payments on the national debt, etc., and the lawlessness in DC right now). You and the CIA are simply blowing smoke out of your butt with such statements. (5) The rest of your premise is likewise more CIA/deep state/MSM liberal claptrap. (Actually, it's not even "your premise", it's simply crap you reiterate as "fact" from MSM & globalist think tanks). Yes, it is a fact MSM & think tanks publish such rot (like the Russia hoax, etc.) No, it has no basis or bearing in fact. You've been told this hundreds of times before. And now your reliance on AI is seriously misleading you. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 14:26, August 22, 2025 (EDT)

Also, you have been told? By whom? You? You act as if I believe that everything you say is true. That is not the case. Conservative (talk) 15:07, August 22, 2025 (EDT)

You don't have to believe what I say, but you should at a minimum think for yourself. You don't. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!}

Did the heavily armed Wagner Group storm toward Moscow while the Russian army looked on? Can you point to anything in contemporary America that comes close to this? No! Conservative (talk) 15:09, August 22, 2025 (EDT)

How about Russiagate, a deep state coup to overthrow the legitimate democratically elected government. You show how really naive you are ("Can you point to anything in contemporary America that comes close to this? No!") RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 15:21, August 22, 2025 (EDT)

What has happened now is, as far as trimming the federal budget deficit, the national debt, or addressing NATO involvement and the military industrial complex, you don't have a leg to stand on. AOC has shown more political awareness and analytical thinking than you have. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 17:29, August 22, 2025 (EDT)

Wars And Rumors Of Wars: The U.S., Venezuela, Israel, Iran, Russia And China Make Moves As The Pivotal Month Of September Approaches

If a person is well read and informed, they wouldn't look like an idiot in discussion. As my dad said when I was 7 years old, "If you don't like being called an idiot, stop acting like one". RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 13:30, August 22, 2025 (EDT)

What Mearsheimer says is quite simple:

When the US government has to turn to Communist China for a bailout in 2008 to fund a massive Keynesian bailout of American banks, the writing was on the wall for all to see. RobS^{Zelensky Must Go!} 00:28, October 11, 2025 (EDT)