United States presidential election, 2012

The United States Presidential Election, 2012 is on Tuesday, November 6, when America picks a new president. Candidates are expected to file formal papers indicating their interest in early 2011; many have been quietly lining up support throughout 2010.

Well-funded candidates increasingly use other "stalking horse" candidates to try to prevent their opponent from gaining a majority, as McCain backers used Fred Thompson in 2008 to prevent Mitt Romney from winning while McCain stumbled. Thompson obtained undeserved endorsements from national pro-life groups as well as heavy promotion on the Fox News Channel, despite virtually admitting that he would not become president. Thompson withdrew after serving his purpose of attracting pro-lifers and other conservatives away from rivals of McCain, and then Thompson immediately endorsed McCain.

The key early primaries are Iowa (caucuses), New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Nevada.

Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination

Candidate	Pros	Cons	Fox News Exposure
Newt Gingrich	Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide, balanced the federal budget in the Clinton era, leader in fundraising, likely to obtain endorsement of older "right to life" groups against Mitt	Struggled to win reelections in his own congressional district; has previously endorsed liberal ideas like "cap-and-trade" (global warming hoax) and a Con Con; resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of Bill Clinton; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a women 23 years younger than he.	Promoted almost daily by Fox
Mitt Romney	First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state, prodigious fundraiser	Once supported abortion and civil unions; his costly health care plan included mandatory insurance and became the model for ObamaCare; won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008	Excluded by Fox, which prefers Newt
Sarah Palin	Empathetic, attracts crowds, pro-life, fiscal conservative, popular, track record of supporting upset victories in primaries	Resigned early as governor; could be a stalking horse for Newt Gingrich; lags in fundraising despite publicity and came in only fifth in the Values Voter Summit in September 2010.	Promoted heavily by Fox
Ron Paul	Won the CPAC poll, is strong in national polls, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican	his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him, but may not sway many voters against him	Excluded by Fox because he opposes the war
Michele Bachmann	A movement conservative who is popular in a Democratic region and with the Tea Party movement	As with Ronald Reagan, liberal bias is at its worst against her; she's said she's not running for president this soon and pulled out of the "Values Voter Summit" (Family Research Council convention) straw poll in September 2010.	On Fox as she's in the news
John Thune	Defeated Tom Daschle, relatively conservative voting record for a senator; also taller than Obama, and enjoys broad support	May lack an essential "fire in the belly"; voted for TARP financial bailout and McCain-Feingold campaign finance; no-show at some conservative events; hasn't effectively criticized Obama.	Rarely allowed on Fox
Marco Rubio	A rising young star in Florida, a key swing state; an electrifying speaker	Will face liberal double standard: what's OK for Obama (e.g., inexperience) is somehow not OK for a conservative	On Fox in connection with Senate bid
Rand Paul	heir-apparent to massive support for Ron Paul	needs to win the Kentucky U.S. Senate seat first	Usually excluded by Fox, had to go on the liberal MSNBC instead
Steve King	A conservative Iowa congressman who could win the Iowa caucuses; resonates well with independents; recommended by Bachmann	Not well known yet	Excluded by Fox
Chris Christie	True fiscal reformer, puts liberals in their place, rising star	Picked a pro-abortion running mate when he ran for governor, and has little experience with national issues; has said he is not going to run; campaigned for RINO Mike Castle in Delaware who was then defeated	Promoted heavily by Fox
Mike Pence	Communicates a very strong conservative message: "a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order." Won straw poll held at the Values Voter Summit in September 2010.	Unsuccessfully proposed a "comprehensive" immigration plan that was widely criticized by conservatives; lacks legislative achievements; not widely known; either he or Huckabee could become a stalking horse for Newt Gingrich with respect to evangelical voters in Iowa	Sometimes on Fox
Mike Huckabee	Pro-life, pro-Second Amendment and pro-Bible; strong in polling, particularly among evangelicals	Could be a stalking horse for Newt; also supporter of big government, and as governor released man who later killed officers	Promoted by Fox with his own show
Rick Perry	Conservative-talking governor who has run Texas for a decade (since George W. Bush became president); crushed RINO Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 primary	More conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed RINO Rudy Giuliani in 2008; tried to force all schoolgirls to receive the HPV vaccine	Rarely on Fox
Gary Johnson	Former libertarian two-term governor of New Mexico, he has been recommended by Ron Paul if Dr. Paul does not run for president; Johnson is a strong advocate of less government.	Like other libertarians but unlike most Republicans, Johnson favors legalizing marijuana, expanding legal immigration and allowing same-sex unions.	Excluded by Fox, which opposes libertarians
Ken Cuccinelli	Has won statewide office. Leader in challenging ObamaCare, advancing pro-life principles, and opposing the global warming hoax, including investigating Liberal University of Virginia's involvement in the Climategate scandal. Wants to stop the homosexual agenda prevalent at the University of Virginia and other Virginia universities.	Only 42 years old, he'll probably become governor of Virginia before running for president. Not as frequent a speaker at Tea Party events as others, such as Steve King and Michele Bachmann. Also, Cuccinelli may be more influential on domestic policy in his current position than a president is.	On Fox because he's been so newsworthy
Jan Brewer	Stands up to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on issue of illegal aliens	May be too busy as Governor of Arizona to run for president; lacks an image on issues other than immigration, and single-issue (immigration) candidates can rarely win a presidential nomination	Rupert Murdoch, owner of Fox News, has embraced amnesty
Tim Pawlenty	Young; popular in his home state of Minnesota	Still not well known outside of Minnesota; accepted stimulus funds after arguing against them	Sometimes on Fox
Scott Brown	Proven ability to appeal to moderate voters even in blue states	Inexperience; already voting with the Democrats in the Senate	Has been on Fox
Rick Santorum	Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010	His all-out support of RINO and now-Democrat Arlen Specter prevented Pat Toomey from defeating him in 2002, and Santorum endorsed Romney for President in 2008; could simply be a stalking horse for Romney	Promoted on Fox
Mitch Daniels	Rust Belt Governor, effective critic of the Obama administration	Unknown nationally, criticized when he tried to downplay significance of social issues	Promoted by Fox
Jeb Bush	More conservative than his brother George W. Bush, and popular in pivotal Florida; criticized Palin as a rival candidate might	Says he's not running, and could have been tagged with negatives via George; not liked by many Tea Partiers; why not wait and defeat Hillary in 2016 or 2020?	Rarely appears on Fox
Jim Demint	strong support by social conservatives, libertarians, Tea Party, and evangelicals; a tenacious advocate willing to criticize Obama	stated at a conservative conference in July 2010 that he is not running for president; a Southern conservative who will need to work hard to gain support in Iowa and New Hampshire, the key early primary states	Sometimes on Fox
Todd Akin	A movement conservative from Missouri, which he serves as a congressman	Not well known yet	Rarely allowed on Fox`
Bob McDonnell	Won landslide election as Virginia governor; has Obama's height	Not widely known yet, but gave Republican response to State of the Union; seemed more conservative as a candidate than as governor	Rarely allowed on Fox
Rudy Giuliani	Widely respected for his post-9/11 leadership in New York City	Struck out completely as a candidate in 2008; very weak on important social issues; cross-dressing for comedic purposes when it suited him	Frequently on Fox
Dick Cheney	Prominent and consistent opposition to Obama	Of dubious health; has explicitly disavowed interest in running	Has been on Fox; daughter is a commentator for Fox
John Bolton	Expert on foreign policy and national security issues	Polarizing figure that Democrats refused to appoint to permanent UN position	Frequently on Fox; both focus on foreign policy

The Chess Game for the Republican Party

There are three key steps to the Republican nomination: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. It's a chess game for Mitt and Newt to try to emerge from those three as the leader.

There are four basic components of the Republican Party. To win the nomination, a candidate needs to obtain the support of at least two out of four:

1. social conservatives (pro-life, pro-marriage, pro-Republican Party platform)
2. libertarians (lower taxes, less government, pro-business, anti-union)
3. religious voters (Baptists, Presbyterians, Catholics, evangelicals, Mormons)
4. neoconservatives (foreign intervention, "better" government)

In 2008, John McCain won the nomination by capturing the support of 1 and 4 above. Ron Paul had the support of 2. Mitt Romney enjoyed support by 2 and part of 3. Mike Huckabee had support of 1 and part of 3. The division of 3 by Romney and Huckabee caused them to block each other: Huckabee blocked Romney in Iowa, and Romney returned the favor in New Hampshire. This dynamic prevented either from winning the nomination.

In 2000, George Bush won with the support of 1 and 3. But John McCain enjoyed the support from 2 and 4 and this enabled him to win the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries, giving Bush a close contest. Some felt McCain mishandled his victory in Michigan.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan had the support of 1 and 2.

Potential Democratic Candidates

Candidate	Pros	Cons	MSNBC exposure
Evan Bayh	Democratic base sees Bayh's retirement from the Senate as "a symbol of what's wrong with the party" as moderates are increasingly marginalized.	Lags behind Obama in fundraising. [2]	Has appeared on MSNBC.
Hillary Clinton	Her criticism of Obama's massive deficits hinted at a possible run against him in 2012, and Ted Kennedy cannot interfere with her nomination this time; moreover, waiting until 2016 is unattractive because she will be 71 then. She has the highest approval ratings of any potential challenger. Tested the waters with Bill backing a challenger to Obama's Colorado Senate candidate (who then lost), and by Hillary saying she won't serve a second term as Obama's Secretary of State. The chances of Hillary running and winning the nomination increase with every decline in Obama's approval ratings.	Her feminism is not wanted and she'd lose the general election as Martha Coakley did.	Disfavored on MSNBC.
Barack Obama	He's not Hillary Clinton, and he receives biased support from the media.	He depends on a teleprompter to speak, and has run the nation into the ground.	Heavily promoted on MSNBC.

Independent Candidacy by Mike Bloomberg

The man who spent $185 per vote to garner 51% of the vote to remain as Mayor of New York City in 2009, Mike Bloomberg, is increasingly looking like an independent, self-funded candidate for president in 2012.

$185 per vote times 50 million voters equals $9.25 billion, which he can easily afford as one of the richest men in the world! The catch is that 50 million Americans are not as likely to be persuaded by self-funded campaign ads as 51% of New Yorkers were. The more likely result is the he would split the pro-abortion, pro-homosexual agenda vote with the Democratic nominee.

See also

• Gubernatorial elections, 2010