United States presidential election, 2012

The Presidential Election 2012 is on Tuesday, November 6, when the United States elects a president. Obama, with his declining popularity, is unlikely to win reelection unless he can carry Florida, which he only narrowly won last time.

For the Republican nomination, the leaders are Mitt Romney (likely to win New Hampshire), Michele Bachmann (likely to win Iowa), and Rick Perry (likely to win the South). Neither seem to have broad enough support to win the nomination. Ron Paul has a solid base of about 10% and his ideas are being adopted by other candidates. Additional candidates (perhaps Jeb Bush?) are possible.

Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination

Candidate	Pros	Cons	Trending ...
Mitt Romney	First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state, cut taxes and the deficit, prodigious fundraiser and tireless campaigner, polling at 40% in the key early primary state of New Hampshire, credited for helping Scott Brown win an upset victory for the seat long held by Ted Kennedy. Likely to be endorsed by Chris Christie, Trent Lott, Rick Santorum, Marsha Blackburn, Jim Talent, etc. Only 26% of voters said they would never vote for him, which is the lowest negative of any major Republican candidate.	Refuses to sign the same pro-life pledge that all other major Republican candidates signed; continues to believe in liberal propaganda claiming global warming; Romney once supported abortion and civil unions, criticized by the Tea Party Express chairwoman and others due to his ObamaCare-like health plan in Massachusetts, which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion; struggles in Iowa and won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008.	Doubts are growing that someone as weak as Romney on pro-life can win the nomination. He is losing ground despite winning the first debate, and finished only 5th in the straw poll at the Republican Leadership Conference; disappointed pro-lifers by failing to take a pro-life pledge
Rick Perry	Ranking improved on June 9 because Newt's campaign leadership quit. Perry formally announced his candidacy on August 13. He is a conservative-talking governor who has run Texas for a decade (since George W. Bush became president); crushed RINO Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 primary and then won a landslide in the general election against a popular opponent, carrying others to victory on his strong coattails; has an excellent jobs record in his State and which he can contrast with liberal-run states like California, Nevada, Illinois, and New York. Strong religious faith that he is not afraid to show by attending prayer-ins that are mocked by east coast liberals. Understands the concept of state's rights.	It can be argued is more conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed RINO Rudy Giuliani in 2008; tried to force all schoolgirls to receive the HPV vaccine; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing abortion; and responded to a reporter's question on Dec. 24, 2010 that he's definitely not running. Could simply block Mitt Romney from winning the nomination, without winning it himself.	Stumbled in his first major statements on abortion and same-sex marriage. Did not participate in the Iowa debate or Straw Poll but finished sixth on write-in votes. May be focusing on a southern strategy that is unlikely to give him the majority of delegates needed to win.
Michele Bachmann	A movement conservative who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's State of the Union address in January 2011, Bachmann is increasingly popular with the Tea Party movement; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in Minnesota. Did very well at CPAC in Feb. 2011. Bachmann's beliefs are similar to Ron Paul's, but she is more of a conservative than libertarian, and is trying to appeal to Ron Paul's fanbase, thus a Bachmann candidacy could unite Tea Party conservatives.	As with Ronald Reagan, liberal bias is at its worst against her; has never won statewide office; Ron Paul did not support her for a House leadership position and did not join her Tea Party caucus.	Did extremely well in the first debate; jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters; took a more stern approach to the second debate, perhaps to appeal more to angry voters currently supporting Ron Paul. Won the Ames Straw Poll.
Ron Paul	Won the CPAC poll, terrific on economic issues, is strong in national polls, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican; appeals to many social liberals.	Voted twice to repeal DADT, which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; opposed Bachmann for a leadership position; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienates many Republicans.	Improving as Obama's support is lowest when Paul is his opponent; Paul is gaining ground as economy crumbles. Was the clear crowd favorite in the Iowa debate on Aug. 10. 1% behind Michele Bachmann in the Ames straw poll, together with her they consisted of more than half the votes.
Herman Cain	Former Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem, is making himself known.	Not well known outside the conservative sphere of influence, although he is gaining influence among the public.	Maintaining his ranking
Newt Gingrich	Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide, balanced the federal budget in the Clinton era, leader in fundraising, likely to obtain endorsement of older "right to life" groups against Mitt; has one-sided promotion by the Fox News Channel and the WSJ, who will likely criticize his opponent Mitt Romney; Gingrich's record of passing conservative legislation as Speaker of the House is remarkably strong, including welfare reform, DOMA, the Solomon Amendment, and even term limits. He also had the courage to shut down the government.	Fading further, unable to gain much support; lost ground when his entire campaign staff resigned en masse on June 9th; Gingrich has previously endorsed liberal ideas like "cap-and-trade" (global warming hoax) and a Con Con; resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of Bill Clinton; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a women 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office; Sarah Palin is suggesting that she may not pull out and this would prevent Newt from defeating Mitt. Since 9/11, Newt has come to adopt more big-government and pro-regulatory neoconservative views, unlike the push for limited-government and deregulation he spearheaded during the 1990s.	Losing ground as his senior staff jumps ship
Sarah Palin	Empathetic, attracts crowds, personally pro-life, fiscal conservative, popular, track record of supporting upset victories in primaries; has a popular television series and book tour that emphasizes the grassroots rather than the "inside the Beltway" mentality.	It's difficult to take seriously someone who relies so heavily on Facebook; even liberal Hollywood preferred The King's Speech at the Oscars. Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal. Appointed a former Planned Parenthood board member to the Alaska Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; lags in fundraising despite publicity, came in a disappointing fifth in the Values Voter Summit in September 2010 and fared badly at CPAC. Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and many Republicans from George W. Bush to Peggy Noonan have been critical of her running for president. 58% of American voters in a May poll said they would never vote for her.. Frequently mocked and subjected to personal attacks from the liberal media.	Disappearing below the memoirs of her infamous daughter
Rick Santorum	Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010, strongly socially conservative.	His all-out support of RINO and now-Democrat Arlen Specter prevented Pat Toomey from defeating him in 2002, could simply be a stalking horse for Romney, who he endorsed in 2008.	Was fabulous in the Iowa debate Aug. 10th, hopes to climb in the polls
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	Has foreign policy and executive experience. Appealing to moderates, although this is because he holds numerous liberal stances.	Worked in the Obama administration; Criticized the economic stimulus package as not being big enough, favors Comprehensive Immigration Reform, supports civil unions, and is a believer in man-made global warming.	Not getting much support, except among the media and multiple Democrats
Thad McCotter	Congressman from Michigan who is conservative and being promoted by Fox News, and does not need to read from a teleprompter to give a speech.	Not enough people know who he is yet. Twice this year voted against ending the preference for union labor in government construction projects. Could be seeking name recognition rather than the Republican nomination.	Increasing in support but slowly. Finished last in the Iowa Straw Poll.
Gary Johnson	Former libertarian two-term governor of New Mexico, he has been recommended by Ron Paul, Johnson is a strong advocate of a libertarian belief system.	Like other libertarians but unlike most Republicans, Johnson favors legalizing marijuana, expanding legal immigration and allowing same-sex unions. Given Ron Paul's run, there seems to be little support for Gary Johnson in this election cycle.	Cannot get much support with Ron Paul in the same race
Rudy Giuliani	Widely respected for his post-9/11 leadership in New York City	Completely mismanaged his 2008 primary campaign; very weak on important social issues; cross-dressing for comedic purposes when it suited him	A throwback to an era and issues that matter less now

The Chess Game for the Republican Party

Short form

The short form analysis is this: it probably requires a minimum of $25 million in campaign funds to win the nomination, and more if the candidate lacks a strong conservative base. Many of the candidates are probably looking to big fundraisers for support, but they are unsure of whom to back. Karl Rove, with all of his contacts from the Bush years, may be able to raise $20 million for a candidate; Haley Barbour might be able to raise even more. Fox News and its allies can raise eight figures also, as they helped reelect John McCain as senator in 2010.

The fundraising obstacle is no problem for Mitt Romney. Michelle Bachmann could reach that goal also, and benefits from having a strong conservative base too. Ron Paul could sustain his campaign as he did in 2008, relying heavily on the internet. But others lacking in a strong base will struggle unless they can obtain the support of either the Bush/Rove group, or Barbour's network, or Fox News and its allies.

Long form

Ron Paul.

There are three key steps to the Republican nomination: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Mitt can win only one out of the three (New Hampshire), leaving an opening for another candidate to win the other two.

There are four basic components of the Republican Party. To win the nomination, a candidate needs to obtain the support of at least two out of four:

1. social conservatives (pro-life, pro-marriage, pro-Republican Party platform)
2. libertarians (lower taxes, less government, pro-business, anti-union)
3. religious voters (Baptists, Presbyterians, Catholics, evangelicals, Mormons)
4. neoconservatives (foreign intervention, "better" government)

In 2008, John McCain won the nomination by capturing the support of 1 and 4 above. Ron Paul had the support of 2. Mitt Romney enjoyed support by 2 and part of 3. Mike Huckabee had support of 1 and part of 3. The division of 3 by Romney and Huckabee caused them to block each other: Huckabee blocked Romney in Iowa, and Romney returned the favor in New Hampshire. This dynamic prevented either from winning the nomination.

In 2000, George Bush won with the support of 1 and 3. But John McCain enjoyed the support from 2 and 4 and this enabled him to win the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries, giving Bush a close contest. Some felt McCain mishandled his victory in Michigan.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan had the support of 1 and 2.

Potential Democratic Candidates

McClatchy-Marist survey after the 2010 Midterm elections revealed 46% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters said they don't want President Obama to face a Democratic primary challenge, with 45% saying they do want such a challenge to occur. 40% of Democrats and independents who lean towards the Democrats say they prefer a more conservative challenger, while 39% say they want a challenger who is more liberal. The Marist poll says,

“

Interestingly, a plurality of Democrats – 42 percent – would like to see a more liberal challenger while half of Democratic leaning independents – 50 percent – would like to see a more conservative one.

”

The McClatchy-Marist poll indicates that 48 percent of registered voters nationwide plan to vote against the president in 2012, with 36 percent saying they'll vote to re-elect Obama.

A Quinnipiac University survey released after the 2010 Midterm elections indicated that a plurality of Americans don't think Obama deserves to be re-elected to a second term, and an Associated Press-GfK survey in the same time span indicates that 54% believe Obama should be voted out of office in 2012. Former DNC chairman Ed Rendell suggested on MSNBC, liberal anger over Obama's escalation of the war in Afghanistan could lead to a primary challenge.

The New York Times reported many liberals are so upset over recommendations by the Deficit Reduction Commission which President Obama himself created after the Democratic controlled Congress voted the idea down, "if Mr. Obama were to embrace its major parts, he would invite a primary challenge in 2012." Clarence B. Jones, who was a personal advisor, legal counsel, and close friend of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., has called for a primary challenge to President Obama.

Also Obama's Libyan intervention has raised the ire of many prominent leftists who question the wisdom and legality of the president's actions.

Apart from speculation from the MSM, there has been no serious talk of the 2012 nominee being anyone but Barack Obama. It is more likely that he will replace Joe Biden as his VP candidate, although this is also highly unlikely.

Independent Candidacy by Mike Bloomberg

The man who spent $185 per vote to garner 51% of the vote to remain as Mayor of New York City in 2009, Mike Bloomberg, is increasingly looking like an independent, self-funded candidate for president in 2012.

$185 per vote times 50 million voters equals $9.25 billion, which he can easily afford as one of the richest men in the world. The catch is that 50 million Americans are not as likely to be persuaded by self-funded campaign ads as 51% of New Yorkers were. Also, it is possible that money is becoming less influential in campaigns, not more so. The most likely result from a Bloomberg candidacy would be a split in the pro-abortion, pro-homosexual agenda vote with the Democratic nominee, facilitating election of the Republican nominee.

See also

• Gubernatorial elections, 2010