Difference between revisions of "2008 Republican Primary"

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The 2008 [[Republican]] primary schedule is as follows:
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The '''2008 [[Republican]] primary''' schedule starts January 3, 2008.  Note that caucuses and conventions tend to favor party regulars and [[conservatives]], while open primaries allow independent voters to choose more [[liberal]] candidates.  In parentheses are the primary system plus the delegate count, after adjustment for  penalties assessed by the [[RNC]] for moving their primaries too early.
  
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* January 21, 2008 - [[Iowa]] (caucuses that tend to exclude independents)
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== Candidates and Delegates ==
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* January 28, 2008 - [[New Hampshire]] (independents allowed to vote)
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* February 2, 2008 - [[South Carolina]] (independents not allowed to vote)
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Delegates needed to win the nomination: roughly 1200 out of about 2400 (after adjustment to the original total of 2488 for state penalties assessed shifting their primaries early).
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* February 5, 2008 - [[Alabama]], [[Arizona]], [[Arkansas]], [[Missouri]], [[New Mexico]], [[North Carolina]], [[North Dakota]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Utah]], [[Delaware]] and [[West Virginia]] (which will nominate a candidate at a state nominating convention)
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* February 5, 2008 (unofficial date) - [[Florida]], [[Michigan]]
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[[Rudy Giuliani]] is expected to win [[New Jersey]] and [[New York]] on [[Super Tuesday]], February 5, 2008, and those states award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis.<ref>http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-DSVE.phtml</ref>  That will give Giuliani 153 delegates towards the roughly 1000 needed to win the nomination.
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* February 12, 2008 - [[Tennessee]]
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* February 9 or February 16, 2008 (date to be determined) - [[Louisiana]]
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[[John McCain]] will likely win [[Arizona]], which is another winner-take-all state, giving him 53 delegates on [[Super Tuesday]].
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* February 19, 2008 - [[Minnesota]], [[Wisconsin]]
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* February 26, 2008 - [[New Jersey]]
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[[Mike Huckabee]] should win the winner-take-all state of [[Georgia]], to earn him 72 points on [[Super Tuesday]].
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* March 4, 2008 - [[Connecticut]], [[Georgia]], [[Maryland]], [[Massachusetts]], [[New York]], [[Rhode Island]], [[Ohio]], [[Texas]], [[Vermont]]
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* March 4, 2008 (unofficial date) - [[Pennsylvania]]
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[[Mitt Romney]] is strong in the winner-take-all states of [[Massachusetts]], [[Vermont]] and [[Utah]], which yield a total of 96 delegates.
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* March 11, 2008 - [[Mississippi]], [[Washington]]
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* March 18, 2008 - [[Illinois]]
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[[Ron Paul]] should do well in [[New Hampshire]], with its independent streak and proportional assignment of delegates, and in his home state of [[Texas]], which has a late primary (March 4) but 140 delegates.
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* April 2, 2008 - [[Puerto Rico]] (unofficial)
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* April 15, 2008 - [[Colorado]]
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[[Fred Thompson]] can be expected to win the winner-take-all state of [[Tennessee]], assuming he wins a majority of the votes, for a total of 55 delegates.
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* April 26, 2008 - [[Kansas]], [[Nevada]]
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* May    2008 - [[Alaska]](date to be determined)
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[[Duncan Hunter]] should do well in [[California]], which has 173 delegates on a district-based winner-take-all system.
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* May 6, 2008 - [[Indiana]]
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* May 10, 2008 - [[Wyoming]]
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[[Tom Tancredo]] should do well in [[Colorado]], which has 46 delegates in a proportional system.
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* May 13, 2008 - [[Nebraska]]
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* May 17 2008 - [[Maine]] (tentative date)
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Rough total of delegates already locked up by the analysis above: nearly 600.  That means for a candidate to win a majority he must win about 100 he won above, plus a tremendous 1100 out of the 1800 remaining delegates, which is over 60% of Republican votes cast.  '''Is this even plausible?'''
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* May 20, 2008 - [[Kentucky]], [[Oregon]]
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* May 27, 2008 - [[Idaho]]
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== Voting Schedule ==
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* June 3, 2008 - [[South Dakota]], [[California]]
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* June 6, 2008 - [[Hawaii]], [[Virginia]]
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* January 3, 2008 - [[Iowa]] (caucuses - 40) - [[Mitt Romney]] & [[Mike Huckabee]] expected winners
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* June 9, 2008 - [[Montana]]
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* January 3, 2008 - [[Wyoming]] (convention - 28) - [[conservative]] territory
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[[Category:Politics]]
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* January 8, 2008 - [[New Hampshire]] (open - 12) - wide open, but [[Mitt Romney]] will do well
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* January 15, 2008 - [[Michigan]] (open - 30) - [[Rudy Giuliani]] & [[John McCain]]
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* January 19, 2008 - [[South Carolina]] (closed - 24) & [[Nevada]] (caucus - 34) - [[Rudy Giuliani]] & [[Mike Huckabee]]
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* January 29, 2008 - [[Florida]] (primary - 57) - [[Rudy Giuliani]] & [[Mike Huckabee]]
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Total number of delegates in January: 225, out of __ total (after correction for penalties for early primaries)
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[[Alabama]], [[Arizona]], [[Arkansas]], [[Missouri]], [[New Mexico]], [[North Carolina]], [[North Dakota]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Utah]], [[Delaware]] and [[West Virginia]] (which will nominate a candidate at a state nominating convention) - __ delegates
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* February 5, 2008 (unofficial date) - [[Florida]], [[Michigan]] - __ delegates
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* February 12, 2008 - [[Tennessee]] - __ delegates
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* February 9 or February 16, 2008 (date to be determined) - [[Louisiana]] - __ delegates
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* February 19, 2008 - [[Minnesota]], [[Wisconsin]] - __ delegates
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* February 26, 2008 - [[New Jersey]] - __ delegates
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* March 4, 2008 - [[Connecticut]], [[Georgia]], [[Maryland]], [[Massachusetts]], [[New York]], [[Rhode Island]], [[Ohio]], [[Texas]], [[Vermont]] - __ delegates
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* March 11, 2008 - [[Mississippi]], [[Washington]] - __ delegates
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* March 18, 2008 - [[Illinois]] - __ delegates
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* April 2, 2008 - [[Puerto Rico]] (unofficial) - __ delegates
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* April 15, 2008 - [[Colorado]] - __ delegates
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* April 22, 2008<ref>[http://www.pagop.org/events/details.aspx?eid=149 Pennsylvania GOP]</ref>  - [[Pennsylvania]] - __ delegates
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* April 26, 2008 - [[Kansas]], [[Nevada]] - __ delegates
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* May    2008 - [[Alaska]](date to be determined) - __ delegates
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* May 6, 2008 - [[Indiana]] - __ delegates
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* May 10, 2008 - [[Wyoming]] - __ delegates
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* May 13, 2008 - [[Nebraska]] - __ delegates
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* May 17, 2008 - [[Maine]] (tentative date) - __ delegates
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* May 20, 2008 - [[Kentucky]], [[Oregon]] - __ delegates
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* May 27, 2008 - [[Idaho]] - __ delegates
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* June 3, 2008 - [[South Dakota]], [[California]] - __ delegates
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* June 6, 2008 - [[Hawaii]], [[Virginia]] - __ delegates
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* June 9, 2008 - [[Montana]] - __ delegates
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== Primary winners ==
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* January 3, 2008 - [[Iowa]] (caucus' - 40) - [[Mike Huckabee]]
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* January 3, 2008 - [[Wyoming]] (convention - 28) - [[Mitt Romney]]
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* January 8, 2008 - [[New Hampshire]] (open - 12) - [[John McCain]]
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* January 15, 2008 - [[Michigan]] (open - 30) - [[Mitt Romney]]
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* February 5, 2008 - See [[Super Tuesday]] article
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== References ==
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<references/>
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[[Category:United States Presidential Election, 2008]]

Latest revision as of 00:40, July 13, 2016

The 2008 Republican primary schedule starts January 3, 2008. Note that caucuses and conventions tend to favor party regulars and conservatives, while open primaries allow independent voters to choose more liberal candidates. In parentheses are the primary system plus the delegate count, after adjustment for penalties assessed by the RNC for moving their primaries too early.

Candidates and Delegates

Delegates needed to win the nomination: roughly 1200 out of about 2400 (after adjustment to the original total of 2488 for state penalties assessed shifting their primaries early).

Rudy Giuliani is expected to win New Jersey and New York on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008, and those states award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis.[1] That will give Giuliani 153 delegates towards the roughly 1000 needed to win the nomination.

John McCain will likely win Arizona, which is another winner-take-all state, giving him 53 delegates on Super Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee should win the winner-take-all state of Georgia, to earn him 72 points on Super Tuesday.

Mitt Romney is strong in the winner-take-all states of Massachusetts, Vermont and Utah, which yield a total of 96 delegates.

Ron Paul should do well in New Hampshire, with its independent streak and proportional assignment of delegates, and in his home state of Texas, which has a late primary (March 4) but 140 delegates.

Fred Thompson can be expected to win the winner-take-all state of Tennessee, assuming he wins a majority of the votes, for a total of 55 delegates.

Duncan Hunter should do well in California, which has 173 delegates on a district-based winner-take-all system.

Tom Tancredo should do well in Colorado, which has 46 delegates in a proportional system.

Rough total of delegates already locked up by the analysis above: nearly 600. That means for a candidate to win a majority he must win about 100 he won above, plus a tremendous 1100 out of the 1800 remaining delegates, which is over 60% of Republican votes cast. Is this even plausible?

Voting Schedule

Total number of delegates in January: 225, out of __ total (after correction for penalties for early primaries)

Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, Delaware and West Virginia (which will nominate a candidate at a state nominating convention) - __ delegates

Primary winners

References

  1. ↑ http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-DSVE.phtml
  2. ↑ Pennsylvania GOP
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