Difference between revisions of "Essay: Vladimir Putin's foolish decision to launch an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022"

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== Why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why February 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022 ==
 
== Why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why February 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022 ==
  
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Below are resources on why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why Febuary 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022
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Below are resources on why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why Febuary 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022:
  
 
*[[Essay: The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years|The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years]]
 
*[[Essay: The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years|The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years]]

Revision as of 02:32, March 29, 2024

Vladimir Putin

I wrote these essays which discuss some of Russia's biggest problems:

In addition, I wrote these essays about the war in Ukraine:

Russia's biggest problems. The war in Ukraine made Russia's biggest problems worse

Russia's biggest problems are:

1. It's subreplacement level of births is helping to cause a demographic crisis. Putin has admitted this is a major crisis. The war in Ukraine is making this problem worse (See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse).

Russia has some significant social problems such as alcoholism, high divorce rate, health issues and domestic violence which is making its demographic crisis worse. The war in Ukraine is making these problems worse.

The flag of Russia

2. Russia is experiencing a brain drain of the most talented/technical/educationally advanced people leaving Russia - including many millionaires leaving Russia. Putin has admitted that Russia's labor productivity rate is a major problem that needs to be tackled. The war in Ukraine is making this problem worse (See: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia).

3. The most easiest oil to access is going to run out leaving the more expensive oil to access remaining. Russia knows that it should diversify its economy. The war in Ukraine is a big distraction (See: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies).

4. When you are a big seller of commodities such as oil and gas, the last thing you want to do is artificially lower your market size. Although the war in Ukraine is artificially raising the price of oil, Russia is now discounting its oil in its sale of oil to China, India, Turkey, etc. Furthermore, China's economy is starting to be in trouble so Russia depending on oil sales to China to a high degree is not a good thing (See: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines and A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall).

5. Russia has a long history of corruption and authoritarian leadership. Long term, these types of societies don't fare well in the modern world (Soviet Union, China's growing economic/social problems, etc.). The war in Ukraine is making Russia more authoritarian and not less (See: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian and What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin? and Why has the West been so successful?).

Key additional points:

1. Russia is a nuclear power with a much bigger population than Ukraine. Russia also has a lot of industrial capacity. Furthermore, Professor John Mearsheimer has described Europe as a "museum" due to its aging population. Bottom line: Europe's aging population was not itching to invade Russia.

2. Russia is a very large country with a lot of natural resources. Gaining additional war-torn land in Ukraine is not fulfilling a vital need of Russia. Furthermore, this war has caused Finland, etc. to join NATO.

3. Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win, The Conversation, February 22, 2024

Once the war in Ukraine ends, the transition from a war economy to a civilian economy is going to cause some economic pain. Wars are generally not good for a nation's long-term economy because things like education, increasing productivity rate, infrastructure spending, health care, etc all take a hit.

Did the February 2020 invasion of Ukraine by Putin launch a just war? No, it did not.

See also: Just War Theory and Russian war crimes in Ukraine

Under jus ad bellum, only legitimate authorities can wage war for the right reasons (usually this means a defensive war, or a war of defending the weak against a violent oppressor [1]) and only as a last resort if every other peaceful means to avert war have been used to no avail. A just war can only be waged if there is a serious evil that needs to be stopped. Furthermore, there must be a realistic chance that the evil can be stopped without starting a greater evil. If this happens the war reaches a just conclusion. A war started for just reasons and justly waged may still reach an unjust conclusion.

The war in Ukraine has caused a big amount of bad consequences for Russia, Ukraine and the world at large (food prices around the world, etc.). It has caused a greater evil than the previous state of affairs.

Saint Augustine.

Just War Theory is a Christian theory of moral ethics that goes back to Saint Augustine and St. Thomas Aquinas.

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics.

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine

“ Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[2] ”
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[3]

Why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why February 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022

Below are resources on why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why Febuary 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022:

Essays on Russia

Russia

Vladimir Putin in a KGB uniform.

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

User:Conservative's essays

References

  1. ↑ Proverbs 24:11 and commentaries; see also Psalm 82:4 and Job 29:17.
  2. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  3. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
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