Iowa caucuses

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The Iowa caucuses is the first major official contest in the nation for both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. It has served as an early indicator of primary candidates strength since its first took the national spotlight in 1972. The caucus is not a primary (in which people simply vote and leave) but a local meeting that takes several hours to select delegates to the next higher county meeting.
Caucus1.jpg

By January 5, 2019, candidates were already holding events in Iowa in preparation of the Iowa caucuses for the Presidential Election 2020. Leftist Elizabeth Warren, for example, spoke and answered questions, including one about her claims of American Indian ancestry.

Historically, a candidate cannot win the nomination unless he finishes in the top three, or nearly so, in Iowa. But placement near the top is more important than winning in Iowa, given how the winner there often fails to win the nomination.

Significance

Historically, no modern candidate has won the presidential election without finishing in the top three in the Iowa caucuses.

The Iowa caucuses are the earliest primary election in the presidential nomination process for both the Republican and Democratic Parties. As a caucus rather than an open or closed primary, this Iowa primary is dominated by more dedicated voters who are willing to make the long trip to centralized polling places in order to vote.

Approximately a hundred thousand Republicans typically vote in these caucuses.

Unlike the Iowa straw poll or similar events in other states, the Iowa caucuses are the first event on the election calendar that affects the allocation of delegates at the party national conventions. Beginning with the 2012 Presidential election, Iowa switched from the old winner-take-all allocation to proportional allocation. The change gives lesser-known candidates a chance and making it harder for a frontrunner to secure the National majority early. It was also hoped that this change in the election system would energize the base of the party.[1][2]

History

Although the Iowa caucuses are more than a century old, they were not seen as a significant means of predicting the outcome of the Republican and Democratic nominations until the early 1970s. George McGovern's success in winning the Democratic nomination in 1972, and later in 1976, Jimmy Carter's winning the nomination after winning the Iowa Caucus gave credibility to the contest.

Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans paid little attention to the Iowa caucus until 1976 when Gerald Ford narrowly beat Ronald Reagan in an informal straw poll held at the caucuses, leading to Reagan's loss in the presidential primary nomination.

The significance of the Iowa caucuses has varied. In 1992, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran for the Democratic presidential nomination. Because of Harkins' popularity in Iowa, none of the Democratic candidates chose to compete in the state. United States Senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus and later the nomination for the party's presidential candidate. North Carolina Senator John Edwards came in a close second, and later joined the Kerry campaign as vice presidential candidate.

The Iowa caucuses are allowed to precede the New Hampshire primary, which was traditionally the first primary presidential election, on the technicality that a caucus is not an election open for free to the general public.

2020 Iowa Caucus

Main article: 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses

Buttigieg was appointed by the DNC as Acting-Winner of the Iowa caucuses after an app designed by a shadowy group of Democratic operatives failed to accurately award delegates properly in the DNC's Stop Bernie attempt.[3][4] FEC records show the Buttigieg campaign also contributed to the Clinton-connected company.[5] The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), working in coordination with state elections officers, have an existing relationship to ensure computer systems and data collection systems are safe and secure. The DHS reported their offer to review the data system was rebuked by the Iowa Democrat Party.[6] The DNC lost the public's trust in the primary process on very first day of primary voting.[7] Democrats called upon party chairman Tom Perez to resign after rigged results.[8]

Shadow, Inc. is the company that developed the Iowa and Nevada Democratic caucus app. FEC records show Buttigieg for America paid Shadow Inc. $42,000. Former Clinton campaign chairman Robby Mook vetted the app for the Democratic party.[9] Shadow, Inc. was launched by a dark money SuperPAC called Acronym,[10] headed by CEO Tara McGowan, a former journalist and Obama for America operative who is married to a senior advisor of Buttieg's presidential campaign.[11] Acronym was founded by billionaire Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn. Hoffman funded Project Birmingham, a covert voter suppression and fake news campaign based on the Russian model during dirty the 2017 Doug Jones/Roy Moore Alabama Senate race. Obama crony David Plouffe sits on the board of Acronym.[12]

On election night the Iowa Democratic party stopped counting when 98% of precincts were counted and Bernie Sanders was ahead by 2,500 votes. Only the precincts that would likely help Buttigieg were recounted, and the remainder of precincts were weighted to Sanders. Under the apportionment system Buttigieg was awarded two more delegates and claimed victory, but Sanders won the statewide popular vote.[13] Seven of the last nine winners of the Iowa Caucus went on to win the Democratic nomination, and the DNC rigged the election to prevent Sanders from gaining momentum from a victory. Of Buttigieg's 2 delegate margin of victory, 3 were awarded by coin toss.[14] Due to Democrat corruption and election rigging, the Associated Press refused to recognize Buttigieg's claim of victory.[15]

On election night the Iowa Democratic party stopped counting when 98% of precincts were counted and Bernie Sanders was ahead by 2,500 votes. Only the precincts that would likely help Buttigieg were recounted, and the remainder of precincts were weighted to Sanders. Under the apportionment system Buttigieg was awarded two more delegates and claimed victory, but Sanders won the statewide popular vote.[16] Seven of the last nine winners of the Iowa Caucus went on to win the Democratic nomination, and the DNC rigged the election to prevent Sanders from gaining momentum from a victory. Of Buttigieg's 2 delegate margin of victory, 3 were awarded by coin toss.[17]

2016 Iowa Caucus

The 2016 Iowa caucus was held on February 1, 2016. In the Republican poll, Ted Cruz received 27.6 percent of the vote (8 delegates) compared to 24.3 percent (7 delegates) for Donald Trump and 23.1 percent (7 delegates) for Marco Rubio. In the Democratic poll, Hillary Clinton received 49.85 percent of the vote (23 delegates) while Bernie Sanders received 49.58 percent (21 delegates).

2012 Iowa Caucus

Iowa Republican primary voters tend to be conservative on the social issues. Rick Santorum won a surprise victory against heavily funded Mitt Romney in Iowa in 2012. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses.

2008 Iowa Caucus

Politico.com

The 2008 Iowa Caucuses were originally to be held on Monday, January 14, 2008. But they were rescheduled to January 3, 2008.[18]

Democrats

Current presidential primary contestants shows the three top tier candidates, New York senator Hillary Clinton, North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Illinois Senator Barack Obama at a close race in Iowa polls. According to a ABC-Washington Post poll, Obama stands in first place with support of 27% of likely voters, Clinton and Edwards are tied at 26%.[19] In 2004, Edwards took second place at the Iowa and has since remained consistently popular among Democrats in the state. Former New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson, is the only other candidate to reach double digits with 11%.[20] A NewsMax/Zogby Iowa Democratic poll in late August 2007, put Clinton in first place, with 30 percent, among likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers.[21] Edwards received 23 percent support, while Obama received 19 percent[22]..

Republicans

The Republican Iowa Caucus has been closely tied with a non-official primary event, the Iowa Straw Poll. Former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney had held a consistent lead, although the race remained very close to the end.

Date 1st 2ed 3ed 4th 5th
October 17, 2007[23] Mitt Romney 26% Fred Thompson 19% Mike Huckabee 18% Rudy Giuliani 13% John McCain 6%
October 1–3[24] Mitt Romney 29% Fred Thompson 16% Mike Huckabee 12% Rudy Giuliani 11% John McCain 7%

Past winners

Democrats

Republicans

*Went on to win party nomination

Further reading

  • Johnson, Haynes, and Dan Balz. The Battle for America 2008: The Story of an Extraordinary Election (2009) very good report on 2008 caucuses.
  • Skipper, John C. The Iowa Caucuses: First Tests of Presidential Aspiration, 1972-2008 (2009)

See also

References

  1. Goldberg, Jonah. "GOP, be careful what you wish for", March 5, 2012. 
  2. George, Cameron. "Long, damaging presidential...", The Hill, February 24, 2012. 
  3. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/iowa-county-caucus-chairman-accuses-state-of-misreporting-numbers-screwing-bernie-totals-still-not-released-48-hours-after-vote/
  4. https://www.salon.com/2020/02/06/aftermath-of-iowa-debacle-bernie-sanders-probably-won--and-joe-biden-definitely-lost/
  5. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/app-used-in-iowa-democratic-caucus-fiasco-linked-to-former-clinton-campaign
  6. https://youtu.be/v5hfbALvhMo
  7. https://consortiumnews.com/2020/02/05/dnc-loses-public-trust-in-primary-process-on-very-first-day/
  8. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdeNZr8uryA
  9. https://pjmedia.com/election/hoo-boy-hillarys-campaign-manager-was-involved-with-that-disastrous-iowa-caucus-app/
  10. https://hotair.com/archives/john-s-2/2020/02/05/acronym-group-behind-shadow/
  11. https://consortiumnews.com/2020/02/06/group-that-sabotaged-iowa-caucus-begun-by-billionaire-backer-of-alabama-false-flag-campaign/
  12. https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/02/04/hoo-boy-reading-this-damning-thread-from-lee-fang-about-pete-buttigieg-and-shadow-inc-its-no-wonder-mayorcheat-is-trending/
  13. http://www.dickmorris.com/democratic-race-whats-next-lunch-alert/
  14. https://twitter.com/awzurcher/status/1224533900946485250
  15. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/caucuses-in-iowa-run-so-poorly-associated-press-refuses-to-declare-winner/
  16. http://www.dickmorris.com/democratic-race-whats-next-lunch-alert/
  17. https://twitter.com/awzurcher/status/1224533900946485250
  18. http://www.iowacaucus.org/iacaucus.html
  19. https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/02/AR2007080202621.html?hpid=topnews
  20. https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/02/AR2007080202621.html?hpid=topnews
  21. https://www.politico.com/news/stories/0807/5505.html
  22. https://www.politico.com/news/stories/0807/5505.html
  23. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/republican_iowa_caucus
  24. http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=iowapoll07
  25. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/caucuses-in-iowa-run-so-poorly-associated-press-refuses-to-declare-winner/
  26. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=caucus
  27. http://miva.dmregister.com/miva/cgi-bin/miva?extras/iowapoll/poll.mv+file=prez0401
  28. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/PCC/IA-D.html
  29. http://www.theiowacaucus.com/Iowa-caucus-history-results.php
  30. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/IA-R
  31. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=caucus
  32. http://www.gwu.edu/~action/chrniowa.html