Difference between revisions of "Essay: The wreck of the HMS Multipolar World Fantasy"

Latest revision as of 15:07, July 6, 2025

"We are not in a multipolar world." - International Relations and Security Analyst Mark Sleboda on Brian Berlectic's pro-Russia New Atlas YouTube channel.^[1]

Colonel Douglas MacGregor said about China in the video Why China's Navy is a JOKE: "China has huge problems just holding itself together. So I think we should set China aside and understand that."^[2] See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

As the HMS Multipolar World Fantasy ship was going down, a China/Russia cheerleader and big fan of Douglas MacGregor could be heard stubbornly yelling in desperation, "The world is a multipolar world!".

See also: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations? and Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?

For more information, please read the four essays below:

• The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?

• Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?

• The 2023 BRICS Summit was a bunch of hoopla. We still don't live in a multipolar world.

• The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

The U.S. Navy is the most powerful navy in the world

See: The U.S. Navy is the most powerful navy in the world

The U.S. Navy seal

Argument that the world is bipolar in terms of polarity

As far as the field of international relations, the education website Unacademy.com defines a unipolar world thusly, "A unipolar world is when the majority of the world is dominated by a single state or nation's military and economic power, and social and cultural influence." A bipolar world is when two countries are global superpowers. And a multipolar world is when three or more countries have major influence over the world.

There are various arguments indicating that the world is bipolar in terms of polarity with the USA/dominant being the two great powers that are the most influential (See: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?).

Some scholars and others argue that Russia is no longer a great power or that it is a "weak great power":

• Russia is a "weak great power" arguments
• Russia is no longer a great power arguments

The BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters in Shanghai, China

According to Investopedia, BRICS refers to certain emerging market countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and more—that seek to establish deeper ties between member nations and cooperate on economic expansion, including trade. The countries act as a counterbalance to traditional Western influence.^[3]

The BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters is in Shanghai, China. "The New Development Bank (NDB), commonly known as the BRICS Bank, has experienced a slowdown in lending."[1] China has a number of economic problems (See: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy).

In terms of countries each countries GNP and the adding of the GNP of countries that are allies of the United States or lean to the United States as opposed to countries that are allies of China or lean towards China, the U.S. holds an advantage in terms of economical dominance and this state of affairs could continue for the foreseeable future (See: The US retains the economic advantage in its rivalry with China. America and its allies remain more united and economically powerful than Beijing’s group of allies, Financial Times, November 29, 2023).

Naval power is part of power projection which is the capacity of a country to deploy and sustain forces outside its territory.

Again, Colonel Douglas MacGregor said about China in the video Why China's Navy is a JOKE: "China has huge problems just holding itself together. So I think we should set China aside and understand that."^[4] See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters in Shanghai, China.

China's skyscraper boom is officially over.^[5]

China has likely peaked and economic trouble is heading its way. See: China has likely peaked arguments

China and the issue of multipolarity

The flag of China.

China is an important issue when it comes to the issue of multipolarity. For example, "The BRICS bank, officially known as the New Development Bank (NDB), is important because it provides an alternative to traditional multilateral development banks, particularly for emerging economies and developing countries. It aims to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects, reducing reliance on Western-dominated institutions and promoting a more multipolar world."[2]

As noted above, "The New Development Bank (NDB), commonly known as the BRICS Bank, has experienced a slowdown in lending."[3] This is not surprising as China is experiencing a number of economic problems which will be further explained below (See: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy).

In 2024, China's share of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was approximately 19.45% according to Statista.[4]

"China significantly impacts the economies of other Asian nations through trade, investment, and regional economic integration. China's role as a major trading partner, particularly with ASEAN, and its influence on regional supply chains creates both opportunities and challenges for other Asian economies. Furthermore, China's economic growth and policies can trigger both positive and negative spillovers throughout the region."[5]

"China's economy makes up a very large portion of East Asia's overall GDP. In 2024, China's GDP was estimated at $18.3 trillion, which is nearly two trillion dollars more than the rest of Asia combined, according to Visual Capitalist. A more specific estimate from Wikipedia says China accounts for 71.36% of East Asia's overall GDP."[6]

"East Asia, including countries like China, Japan, and South Korea, accounts for roughly 25.84% of the world's economy."[7]

"The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) economy accounts for approximately 7.2% of the global GDP."[8]

China's 10 year bond yield and what it indicates as a leading economic indicator

Will China's bond market woes capsize the dreams of those who long for a multipolar world?

• Bond markets are very powerful for a number of reasons.

In December of 2024, China's 10 year bond yield fell below 2 percent which is a psychological threshold for bond traders and other investors whose buying/selling decisions are partly based on fear and hope of gain.

December 2024 and China's 10-year government bond: "The yield on China's 10-year government bond fell below 2%, the latest indicator of the country's rocky economic performance. That's the lowest level on record. The 2% level has been viewed by some as a line in the sand. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, for example, has identified that level as a key threshold as he advised investors last month to "sell hubris and buy humiliation," the latter referring in part to Chinese assets."[9]

Maybe through Herculean efforts and/or via a surge of Christianity (The Protestant Work Ethic: Alive & Well…In China) and further economic development, China will turn things around, but things look gloomy economically. And unfortunately, if the Chinese economy is doing bad, it adversely affects the Asian economy.

China's bond market is indicating bad news for China further explained:

"Bond yields represent the return an investor can expect on a bond, typically expressed as an annual percentage."[10]

• Why is China's bond yield so low?, Google AI
• China 10 Year Government Bond, Marketwatch
• China 10 year bond yield, Trading economics

"China is also facing unsustainable debts. When combining China’s sovereign debt and local government financing debt, Bass estimated that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio should be roughly 350 percent, which he said is difficult to manage considering the various economic challenges.

Another indicator of China’s financial crisis is the performance of China’s bond market, Bass said. As of June 27, the yield on China’s 10-year sovereign bond is approximately 1.64 percent, compared to 4.26 percent for the U.S. 10-year Treasury.

“So the Chinese government is pretty good at lying about whatever they want to lie about, but the bond market kind of tells the truth, and the bond markets telling you that China is in an economic winter,” Bass said." - China’s Economy Spirals With No End in Sight, Says Kyle Bass, June 28, 2025

More bad economic news for China

• It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

Summary statement

During difficult times, often the "small guys" with less resources take it on the chin and the Chinese economy does affect other smaller nations around China. If China spirals economically downward over the next 10 years, this makes the notion of a multipolar world more of a challenge to occur.

User Conservative's international politics essays

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See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

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• What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?
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• Why has the West been so successful?

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• The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
• Is the USA an economic powerhouse and juggernaut?
• The U.S. Navy is the most powerful navy in the world

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• Skepticism about China remaining a global power

• The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China

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• Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

• Russian war crimes in Ukraine

• Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

• Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

• China's economic decline will contribute to Russia's decline

• Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines

• The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will significantly hurt the Russian economy

• Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline

• Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?

• Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world

• Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?

• Do you strongly believe in gun rights? Don't move to Russia!

• The Russian Army compared to the Israeli army. Why is the Israeli army so outstanding?

• Nordsteam pipelines being sabotaged and Putin failing to play politics several moves ahead on the politics chess board

• Vladimir Putin understimates small opponents - big time! - Humor

• There is no evidence that Vladimir Putin plays chess - Humor

• Essay: Why a Westerner falling for Russian propaganda is like a man who is seduced by a corrupt 300 pound woman - Humor

War in Ukraine

• How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes
• The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years

References