2010 Midterm Elections

In the 2010 Midterm Elections, the nation will elect the 112th Congress, including all members of the House and one third of the Senate, together with a majority of governorships and many state and local offices.

After the Democratic Party successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the Presidential Election of 2008, the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back. Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting two independents and the vacant Massachusetts seat), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.

Democrats have gotten off to a much faster start than Republicans in fundraising for 2010. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $10.2 million in the bank at the end of July, 2009, with debts of $5.3 million. The National Republican Congressional Committee had just $4 million in cash and owed $2.75 million.

The GOP has a small financial lead in Senate races. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has $6.80 million for its campaign account, but has $2.91 from outstanding loans. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has $5.10 million, and has paid off its debt from the last election cycle. In August 2009, the NRSC raised $3.08 million while the DSCC raised $2.2 million.

Forecasts

Democrats must defend about 60 marginal House seats in 2010, as opposed to about 40 for Republicans. At high risk are 27 Democratic seats and just 13 Republican seats that may see a party switch.

Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge. From April to August, Obama lost 10 points across the board--suffering losses in every group except blacks, who remain loyal to him. The popularity of Congress remains low. Fewer people are calling themselves Democrats. The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.

"No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010," concluded Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman, who predicts the Democrats will lose 20 seats in the House, but retain control. Wasserman concludes that a major shift has been underway among "angry white seniors" (over age 60), who strongly dislike the Obama health care proposals because they fear they will lose benefits they now have.

Analyst Stuart Rothenberg is now reporting, "Growing public concern about spending, taxes and the size of government has started to shift the national landscape away from the Democrats to a more neutral position, and quite possibly toward the GOP." Furthermore, an advantage for Republicans is that currently 48 House Democrats, 8 more than the size of their majority, come from districts that voted for both George W. Bush and John McCain.

Notable House Races

See: 2010 House Elections

Senate

CQ predictions, Sept. 2009

The top Senate races are:

• 1 Connecticut (Incumbent=Dem, running for reelection)
• 2 New Hampshire Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 3 Missouri Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 4 Kentucky Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 5 Pennsylvania (incumbent=Dem running for reelection)
• 6 Ohio Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 7 Colorado (incumbent=Dem, running for reelection)
• 8 Illinois Open (incumbent = Dem)
• 9 Louisiana (incumbent=Rep, running for reelection)
• 10 Delaware Open (incumbent = Dem)

Texas Senator John Cornyn, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee has quietly put Senate Republicans in position to benefit as the national political environment goes negative on Democrats. Cornyn has recruited serious candidates in Democratic-held seats in Illinois, Colorado and Connecticut, and still may land top tier recruits in North Dakota and Delaware. With seven open seats to defend, Cornyn understands that he must play offense in a few states if he hopes to position the party to make major gains in the 2012 and 2014 cycles -- both of which, by the numbers, are far more favorable for Republicans.

Special Elections

• Massachusetts

Liberal icon Ted Kennedy, the third longest-serving Senator in U.S. history, died from a brain tumor in August 2009, marking the end of an era. During the 2004 Presidential Election the Democratic super-majority in the state legislator blocked the right of Republican Governor Mitt Romney to appoint an interim senator had John Kerry been elected President. They now want to allow Governor Deval Patrick, a Democrat, the right to appoint a temporary replacement for Kennedy. Regardless, a special election will be held on January 19, 2010.

Given that Massachusetts is arguably the most liberal state in the country (the federal delegation has been entirely Democratic since 1997) the real race will likely be the Democrat primary, held on December 8, 2009. Candidates include State Attorney General Martha Coakley and businessman Alan Khazei. Representative Jim McGovern and Mike Capuano are probable candidates. On the Republican side, State Senator Scott Brown has declared his candidacy. Many high-profile Republicans have declined to run, such as former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card, former Governor Mitt Romney, and former Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey. Former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, who has conservative-leanings, may run as an independent, since he is not registered in any political party.

• Texas

Senior Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has announced she will resign from the Senate in fall 2009 to pursue a campaign for Governor. As a result, Republican Governor Rick Perry must appoint a replacement, and under Texas law, a special election will be held on May 8th. The only announced Republican candidate is Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams. Other possible GOP candidates include 6th district Representative Joe Barton, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, and State Senator Florence Shapiro. Former State Comptroller John Sharp and Houston Mayor Bill White have announced they will seek the Democrat nomination. Texas is considered a Republican stronghold. In the 2008 Presidential Election, John McCain won it's 34 electoral votes by twelve percentage-points.

Open Seats

• Delaware

Joe Biden was simultaneously elected to a seventh term in the Senate and Vice President at the same time. Democrat Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointed a "caretaker" Senator, Ted Kaufman. If state Attorney General Beau Biden runs in the 2010 special election he would be the favorite in the Democratic nomination, but not necessarily the general election if moderate Republican nine-term Congressman Michael Castle, former governor and lieutenant governor, enters the race. Polls show Castle would lead Biden by a conformable margin. Republican political analyst Christine O'Donnell (who ran against Biden in 2008 and received 35% of the vote) has also announced her candidacy.

• Florida

Republican Governor Charlie Crist, who enjoys high approval ratings, appointed George LeMieux upon the resignation of Senator Mel Martinez. LeMieux is holding the seat temporarily for Governor Crist who will run for the Senate in 2010. He is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, but is being challenged by conservative Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio. Crist alienated conservatives when he campaigned with President Obama in support for the $787 billion economic stimulus package, which was entirely opposed by the Florida Republican federal delegation. Democrats have recruited lesser known candidates, including 17th district Representative Kendrick Meek and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns. Public Opinion Shows show both Crist and Rubio would lead their Democrat opponents.

• Illinois

Democrat Senator Roland Burris has been plagued by controversies. Burris was appointed to replace Barack Obama by Governor Rod Blagojevich, who had been arrested on a variety of federal corruption charges (including for trying to "sell" Obama's Senate seat). Burris was then accused of committing perjury after he admitted to not testifying truthfully at a committee investigating Governor Blagojevich. Burris has announced he will not seek a full term in 2010.

Republicans see this as a pickup opportunity. National Journal ranked Illinois the second most likely seat to change party. Moderate-GOP Congressman Mark Kirk, representing a Democratic-leaning district that covers suburban Chicago, has announced his candidacy and is expected to easily win the Republican nomination. Democratic candidates include Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson, Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, and attorney Jacob Meister.

• Kansas

Incumbent Republican Sam Brownback is honoring his campaign pledge to serve only two terms. One of the most conservative states in the country, no prominent Democrats have announced their candidacy. The Cook Political Report lists this race as "solid Republican." The competitive race will be the Republican primary between 1st district Congressman Jerry Moran and 4th district Congressman Todd Tiahrt. Public Opinion Polls show Moran and Tiahrt in a dead heat. Moran's voting record is moderate, he supported an increase raising the minimum wage wage and voted to expand the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), while Tiahrt is strongly conservative. Senator John McCain has endorsed Jerry Moran.

• Kentucky

Republicans had a victory when unpopular incumbent Senator Jim Bunning announced he would not seek a third term. Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson is seeking the Republican nomination, however is being challenged by Libertarian Republican Rand Paul, an eye surgeon who is the son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo (who lost to Bunning in 2004) and state Attorney General Jack Conway are running.

• Missouri

Incumbent Republican Senator Kit Bond has announced he will not seek fifth term. Former House Majority Whip Roy Blunt has announced his candidacy. Blunt benefits from raising a strong $1.44 million in the second quarter and as of now has no serious primary challenger. Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is seeking the Democratic nomination.

• New Hampshire

Senior Republican Senator Judd Gregg, after withdrawing from a position in the Obama administration, announced he will not seek a fourth term. 2nd district Congressman Paul Hodes is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Republicans are behind former State Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. Public opinion polls show Ayotte ahead.

• Ohio

Moderate Republican George Voinovich has announced he will not seek a third term. The Democratic field includes Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher has received the endorsement of Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Meanwhile, Republicans has rallied behind Rob Portman, former Congressman and Director of the Office of Management and Budget. The race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the election cycle.

Democratic incumbents

• Arkansas

Moderate Democrat Blanche Lincoln may be one of Republicans top targets in 2010. In the 2008 Presidential Election, Arkansas was one of the few states where John McCain exceeded George W. Bush’s margin, despite the national trend favoring Democrats. In an attempt to appeal to her conservative constituents Lincoln voted against the Employee Free Choice Act (card check) and has stated opposition to the public option in health care. Lincoln may face a primary challenger from state Senate president pro tempore Bob Johnson, who say's he's openly considering running. Announced Republican candidates Arkansas Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren, State Senator and former state GOP chairman Gilbert Baker, Retired army colonel Conrad Reynolds, and Tom Cox, Founder of the Arkansas Tea Party. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has withheld from endorsing a candidate.

• California

Although California is a solidly Democratic state, conservatives see outspoken liberal Senator Barbara Boxer as vulnerable. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who’s term-limited in 2010, has announced he will not run. State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is campaigning for the GOP-nomination, while former Hewlett-Packard Company President Carly Fiorina is "seriously considering" running.

• Colorado

Appointed Senator Michael Bennet is expected to face a competitive reelection in 2010. Former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives Andrew Romanoff will challenge Bennet for the Democratic nomination, while former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton is seeking the Republican nomination. A Rasmussen Reports poll showed Norton would lead Bennet by 9-percentage points.

• Connecticut

30-year Senate veteran Chris Dodd was ranked the most vulnerable Senator in the 2010 election cycle by National Journal. Dodd’s approval ratings have plummeted after his failed presidential campaign in 2008, his controversial mortgage deal from Countrywide, and revelations about the $165 million bonuses for AIG executives that he attached in an amendment to the economic stimulus package, despite receiving federal bailout money. Former Congressman Rob Simmons is seeking the Republican nomination and is leading Dodd in public opinion polls. Financial services executive Peter Schiff is also running.

• Hawaii

Democrat Daniel Inouye is expected to easily win reelection. Although Republicans could win the seat if term-limited Governor Linda Lingle runs.

• Indiana

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn has said that two-term Senator Evan Bayh is not a priority target for 2010. Although Indiana is a historically Republican state, Bayh has raised $10,896,323 for his reelection campaign. Announced Republican candidates include State Senator Marlin Stutzman and businessman Don Bates Jr.

• Maryland

Entrenched incumbent Barbara Mikulski is expected to easily win reelection. Republicans will more likely be focused on defeating unpopular Governor Martin O’Malley.

• Nevada

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is facing a tough reelection in 2010. The "Cook Political Report" in September 2009 rates the contest as "Toss Up". His status weakened in summer 2009, as discontent with President Obama and the Democrats' health plan mounted, and as the Recession of 2008 continues to batter Las Vegas and the entire Nevada economy, with no relief in sight from the stimulus bill Reid pushed through the Senate. Reid's inability to improve his standing in the polls, coupled with the deteriorating political environment for Democrats nationally, are clear indications that his political problems are deep and will be difficult (though not impossible) to fix, says Cook. Rasmussen Reports polling in Sept. 2009 show Sue Lowden beating Reid 50% to 40%. Lowden is chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and the preferred candidate of the Republican party establishment. Danny Tarkanian beats Reid 50% to 43%. Tarkanian is a former basketball player for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and the son of a legendary college basketball coach.

• New York

Senior Senator Charles Schumer may be the safest incumbent of 2010 and is expected to face no top-tier challenger. Republicans are more likely to target New York’s junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who is running in a special election.

• New York-Special Election

Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed by Governor David Patterson to replace Hillary Clinton after much confusion on his part. Patterson mishandled the proposed appointment of Caroline Kennedy, gaining ridicule for both of them. Gillibrand’s moderate views alienated the left wing of the Democratic Party. She has proven a remarkably successful fundraiser, and primary challengers have dropped away. Nine-term Congressman Peter King considered seeking the Republican nomination but later declined to run. Republicans are trying to recruit former Governor George Pataki, who runs even in the polls with Gillibrand. When asked about the speculation, Pataki said that "you never say never." Some Republican leaders have tried to urge former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to run, although he appears more interested in seeking the governorship.

• North Dakota

Byron Dorgan, a Democratic Senator from a Republican-leaning state, may be vulnerable if popular Republican Governor John Hoeven runs, where he would lead by 17-percentage points.

• Oregon

Democrat Ron Wyden is heavily favored to win reelection. However, Republicans can make a comeback if former Senator Gordon Smith, who was defeated for reelection by a narrow margin in 2008, runs again.

• Pennsylvania

After polls showed him losing the Republican primary by as much a 20 points, Arlen Specter simply changed party affiliation and is now a Democrat. Now Specter faces two heavyweight opponents, 7th-district Congressman Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary, and former 15th district Congressman and Club for Growth President Pat Toomey in the general election.

• Vermont

Patrick Leahy, the third most senior U.S. Senator, has announced his candidacy and is expected to easily win reelection in heavily Democratic Vermont. The only serious challenge to Leahy would be if Governor Jim Douglas runs, but he appears to have no interest in seeking the seat.

• Washington

Senior Senator Patty Murray is well positioned for reelection in 2010. Although if 8th district Congressman Dave Reichert runs the race could become competitive.

• Wisconsin

Three-term incumbent Russ Feingold has positioned himself for a comfortable reelection in 2010. No prominent Republicans have expressed interest in running.

Republican incumbents

• Alabama

Senior Senator Richard Shelby, who was originally elected as a conservative Democrat but changed party affiliation to Republican after the 1994 Republican Revolution, will likely not be a target from national Democrats after three landslide victories in 1992, 1998, and 2004.

• Alaska

Lisa Murkowski, who was appointed to the Senate by her father, Governor Frank H. Murkowski, raised charges of nepotism. She won a term in her own right in 2004 by a close 48%-45% margin, yet she is currently favored to win reelection. No prominent Democrats have shown interest in running.

• Arizona

Senior Senator John McCain, the Republicans presidential nominee in 2008, caught a break when Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was appointed Secretary of Homeland Security, making it highly unlikely for her to challenge him for his Senate seat in 2010. Chris Simcox, a founder of the Minuteman group, is challenging McCain in a primary.

• Georgia

First-term Senator Johnny Isakson's solid standing for his reelection. His most formidable Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Thurbert Baker is instead seeking a campaign for Governor.

• Idaho

Mike Crapo's conservative voting record goes along with the Republican stronghold of Idaho. In 2004, he faced no Democratic challenger and won reelection with over 99% of the vote. Crapo's seat is expected to be one of the safest in the 2010 election cycle.

• Iowa

30-year incumbent Charles Grassley is one of the most distinguished and influential Republican Senators in Washington (he serves as ranking member of the Finance Committee) and as of now is secure to win a sixth term. Former state legislator Bob Krause is planning to challenge Grassley.

• Louisiana

Louisiana, a conservative state, was not effected by the national trend for Democrats in 2006 and 2008. Republican Bobby Jindal was elected Governor by a landslide in 2007, in 2008 John McCain received a larger margin of victory in the state than George W. Bush in 2004, while the GOP gained a House seat in the second district. Yet first-term Republican David Vitter may be vulnerable for his reelection after he confessed in 2007 to seeing an escort service, which has continued to taint his career. Third-district Congressman Charlie Melancon has announced his candidacy and is expected to easily win the Democratic nomination, while Vitter may face a primary challenge from Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne. Adult film star Stormy Daniels has announced that she is running, but has not stated in which party.

• North Carolina

First-term Republican Richard Burr may be vulnerable after Barack Obama won North Carolina's 15 electoral votes by a narrow margin, and Democrat Kay Hagan defeated Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole. State Attorney General Roy Cooper announced he will not challenge Burr, and Democrats are still looking for a candidate.

• South Carolina

First-term Republican Jim DeMint, known as an outspoken conservative, has not hurt him in the Republican stronghold of South Carolina. Democrats have failed to recruit any well-known candidates and DeMint remains in a conformable position for 2010.

• South Dakota

In 2004, John Thune defeated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, his victory quickly made him a rising star in the Republican Party. Democrats have no high-profile challenger for 2010, and he is favored to win reelection.

• Utah

Three-term Senator Robert Bennett represents a state that John McCain won by over thirty=percentage points and is expected to win reelection by a comfortable margin.

Governors

The top races for governorships, and the parties now in power, are:

for November, 2009:

• Virginia open seat (incumbent Democrat is not running)
• N.J. incumbent Democrat is running

In both states the Republicans in early September had a lead of 5% to 10% in polls.

for 2010:

• 1 Kansas incumbent=Democrat
• 2 R.I. incumbent=Republican
• 3 Hawaii incumbent=Republican
• 4 Nevada incumbent=Republican
• 5 Tennessee incumbent=Democrat
• 6 Michigan incumbent=Democrat
• 7 Oklahoma incumbent=Democrat
• 8 Florida incumbent=Republican, not running
• 9 N.Y. incumbent=Democrat

Further reading

• Michael Barone, The Almanac of American Politics: 2010 (2009) 1726pp; in-depth covereage of every seat in Congress.