Difference between revisions of "Essay: There is no evidence that Vladimir Putin plays chess"

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*[[Essay: Whoever marries a divorced woman commits adultery. The Bible says adulterers will not inherit the kingdom of God. Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world. Is Russia a beacon of family values in the world? Nyet!|Whoever marries a divorced woman commits adultery. The Bible says adulterers will not inherit the kingdom of God. Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world. Is Russia a beacon of family values in the world? Nyet!]]
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*[[Essay: Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?|Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?]]

Revision as of 02:59, December 31, 2023

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

According to Kingpin Chess Magazine, there is no evidence that Vladimir Putin plays chess (See: Vladimir Putin Doesn’t Play Chess). According to a popular chess forum, chess Grandmaster Gary Kasparov stated that "Putin isn't a chess player either in actuality nor by character."[1] See: Chessmaster Gary Kasparov on Vladimir Putin.

If you read the below articles, it is very clear that Vladimir Putin does not think several moves ahead on the international relations chess board:

The above essays demonstrate that Putin is not a master of the politics chessboard who is thinking many moves ahead. However, before this, I will readily admit that some people were saying that Putin was some kind of 4D chess player when it comes to politics. Two of the most important portions of a chess game are the middle game and the end game. When Putin launched his special military operation in Ukraine, its clear he was merely thinking of the opening game and not the long-term consequences of it in terms of politics relative to Russia. Putin definitely does not have a deep understanding of the politics long game.

Stephen Kotkin is a historian and scholar of Russia.

Kotkin wrote concerning Vladimir Putin:

“ He is not a strategic figure. People kept saying he was a tactical genius, that he was playing a weak hand well. I kept telling people, “Seriously?” He intervened in Syria, and he made President Obama look like a fool when President Obama said that there would be a red line about chemical weapons. But what does that mean? It means that Putin became the part owner of a civil war. He became the owner of atrocities and a wrecked country, Syria. He didn’t increase the talent in his own country, his human capital. He didn’t build new infrastructure. He didn’t increase his wealth production. And so if you look at the ingredients of what makes strategy, how you build a country’s prosperity, how you build its human capital, its infrastructure, its governance—all the things that make a country successful—there was no evidence that any of the things that were attributed to his tactical genius, or tactical agility, were contributing in a positive way to Russia’s long-term power.

In Ukraine, what is it that he’s gained? If you look over the landscape, he’s hurt Russia’s reputation—it’s far worse than it ever was. He consolidated the Ukrainian nation, whose existence he denied. He is expanding nato, when his stated aim was to push nato back from the expansion undertaken since 1997. He’s even got Sweden applying for nato membership. And, so, all across the board, it’s a disaster.

The problem is that he’s in power. And soft Russian nationalists, who were semi-critical of Putin, now have no place to go because you’re either all in, or you flee to Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. He’s wrecking his own country in a way, although in a very different way from the murdering that he’s carrying out in Ukraine.[2]

”

There is a Newtonian aspect to politics/international relations - namely, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. So we see Europe expanding its energy options; NATO expanding in terms of the countries involved, the EU is preparing for a potential wave of expansion; NATO is increasing its military budget, etc.

And more importantly, Russian demography has long been an existential issue to Vladimir Putin. In 2021, he declared “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority".[3] And this war is making Russia's demographic crisis worse (See: Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse and Russia's fertility rate).

Map of Russia.

Approximately 7% of Russia's land is arable and suitable for agricultural production.

The Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov says the main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis will be the following:

“ According to the average version of the UN forecast, Russia's population by 2050 may be about 133.4 million people, which is 14th in the world and below countries such as Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico. But if Russia goes not according to the average, but according to the low option that is quite likely at the present time, then with a population of 123.2 million people we will drop to 16th place and will already be neighbors with Tanzania and Vietnam. Thus, the price of switching to the low scenario could be -10 million people, as well as a decrease in the place in the top countries in terms of population. Moreover, the low version of the UN forecast did not include too low or even negative migration growth.
"A smaller population means a country's lower economic potential, a shrinking domestic market, worsening demographic problems and an aging population, as well as a decrease in the country's political power. The population size still correlates with the weight in international relations, the ability to promote their interests on the world stage. And the declining population for the largest country in the world may cause some neighbors on the continent, especially the eastern ones, to be tempted to solve their internal growing problems by some external adventures. But will Russia find anyone and how to fight back, will there be allies?[4]
 ”

Question: Is Putin a master of the politics chessboard? Nyet!

Vladimir Putin underestimates his opponents which is something a good chess player never does

See also: Vladimir Putin understimates small opponents - big time! - Humor

As can be seen below, Vladimir Putin underestimates his "small opponents" which is something a good chess player never does.

Seemingly weak, little, Japanese girl Judo practitioner tosses Vladimir Putin to the floor

Seemingly weak, little girl Judo practioner tosses Vladimir Putin the floor![5]

Even the sissy boy Barack Obama wasn't thrown to the floor by a little girl.

Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

See also: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

The flag of Russia

According to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov the war in Ukraine makes Russia's demographic crisis worse.[6]

Salavat Abylkalikov indicates:

“ In 2022, Russia's population growth rate was -0.38%. Assuming this rate persists, the population will halve in 184 years (according to Rosstat figures, Russia currently has 146.4 million inhabitants — The Bell). According to the UN's latest projection, Russia's population will be 112.2 million by 2100 under average circumstances.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused life expectancy in Russia to fall by 3.3 years. It quickly began to recover in 2022, rising by 2.7 years. However, the war has disrupted this progress, and life expectancy is now impacted by war-related deaths and stress-induced substance abuse. Lower incomes and worsening access to medication, diagnostics, equipment and treatment are further reducing life expectancy.

The war may also cause a decrease in inward migration, which has previously helped offset Russia's natural population decline. From 1992-2019, the natural loss was 13.8 million people, but inward migration compensated with 9.6 million. Russia could now find itself in a situation where natural and migratory losses reinforce one another...

Shifts in the age structure of the population pose a substantial demographic risk for Russia's economy. The generations born in the 1990s and 2000s, when Russia's birth rate was at its lowest, are now entering the labor market. This will exacerbate the existing crisis due to a lack of young workers. Meanwhile, the post-war generations of the 1950s and 60s are aging and approaching retirement.[7]

”

Articles related to the war in Ukraine making Russia's demographic crisis even worse:

Other articles related to Russia's demographic crisis:

Vladimir Putin famously said "For me, Ukraine is not a real country". Vladimir Putin should have listened to Sun Tzu because the small country of Ukraine is causing significant problems for Russia

"For me, Ukraine is not a real country." - Vladimir Putin[8]

"It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle." - Sun Tzu

Putin should have embraced reality and recognized that Ukraine is a real country. Because as can be seen in the above essay, his denial of history is causing Russia significant problems for Russia - namely it is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse than it was already.[9]

"It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle." - Sun Tzu
"For me, Ukraine is not a real country." - Vladimir Putin[10]

Ukraine is not a real country, Vladimir?

This supposed "non-country" knocked you off your high horse Vladimir. The war in Ukraine has made Russia's demographic crisis even worse![11]

Vladimir Putin is not a strategist

Chessmaster Gary Kasparov on Vladimir Putin

A typical chess set and tournament clock.

See also: Garry Kasparov



Garry Kasparov

Russian defector reveals that a 'majority' of people inside the Kremlin are unhappy with the war in Ukraine

See also: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?


The Grand Kremlin Palace is a building in the Moscow Kremlin.

The Moscow Kremlin is a fortified complex in the center of Moscow. The Moscow Kremlin now serves as the official residence of the Russian president and as a museum.

Nordsteam pipelines being sabotaged and Putin failing to play politics several moves ahead on the politics chess board

See also: Nordsteam pipelines being sabotaged and Putin failing to plan and play politics several moves ahead on the politics chess board

Donald Trump warned the Germans not to be too reliant on Russian gas, but they literally and publicly smirked at him.[12]

Prior to the Nordstream gas pipelines sabotage via underwater bombings (Both Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2 were sabotaged), there were many instances of conflicts/disagreements between Russia and Ukraine/USA. Ukraine is a cleft country and cleft countries are often powderkegs when it comes to political conflicts.

Nord Stream 2, an underwater gas pipeline, was developed and is operated by Nord Stream 2 AG, a subsidiary of the Russian state energy company Gazprom headquartered in Zug, Switzerland. Construction of the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021.[13]

China is now a buyer of a significant amount of Russian oil and gas due to the Europeans sanctioning Russian oil and gas. When Putin chose to launch his special military operation in February in 2022 relative to Ukraine, Vladimir Putin certainly should have predicted China's growing economic problems and that an anti-Russian politician with low ethics such as Joe Biden would give the green light to sabotage the Nordstream gas pipelines given that they helped fund Russia's war effort (Even though it was also used to provide the Germans cheap Russian gas. And keep in mind that the Germans have not given their promised 2% of their GNP to fund their military which NATO members promise to do.). And now, Russia will be facing significant upcoming economic problems given China's significant and growing economic problems (See: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines). On top of this, the war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse (See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse).

Putin, like a good chess player who thinks several chess moves ahead, should have predicted that Joe Biden would play realpolitik hardball given the prevalence and history of hardball politics in Russia. The Germans could have predicted this as well given that Ukraine is a cleft county powderkeg and that a German coined the concept of realpolitik. Germany should have been more like France and developed more nuclear power capabilities, but instead the German Green Party has had undue influence on German politics.

An additional point, "According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, new natural gas-fired plants come with a levelized cost of $48 per MWh compared to existing nuclear's cost of $33.50 per MWh."[14]

Donald Trump warned the Germans not to be too reliant on Russian gas, but they literally and publicly smirked at him.[15]

Former Polish Foreign and Defense Minister and Member of the EU Parliament thanked the United States for the Biden regime's environmental terrorism and Act of War against Russia and the German people.[16]
German protest against Russian sanctions and for opening the Nord Stream pipeline on the morning before the U.S. environmental terrorist attack on the pipeline.[17]

See also

User Conservative's international politics essays

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

General

The United States

China

Russia

War in Ukraine

User:Conservative's essays

References

  1. ↑ How well does Putin play chess?, Chess.com
  2. ↑ How the War in Ukraine Ends, Interview with Stephen Kotkin
  3. ↑ Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’, Fortune magazine, 2022
  4. ↑ "Until the end of the century, we will be enough." Demographer Salavat Abylkalikov - about whether Russia is dying and what to do about it, Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov
  5. ↑ Seemingly weak, little girl Judo practioner tosses Vladimir Putin to the floor - Associated Press
  6. ↑ Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer, The Bell website, July 2023
  7. ↑ Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer, The Bell website, July 2023
  8. ↑ ‘Not a real country’ Why is Putin obsessed with Ukraine?, 2022
  9. ↑
  10. ↑ ‘Not a real country’ Why is Putin obsessed with Ukraine?, 2022
  11. ↑
  12. ↑ Germany Reacts to Trump's UNGA Speech
  13. ↑ Russia may demand compensation for Nord Stream pipeline blasts - diplomat, Reuters, 2023
  14. ↑ Nuclear Energy Institute on energy economics
  15. ↑ Germany Reacts to Trump's UNGA Speech
  16. ↑ https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915
  17. ↑ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-blew-russian-gas-pipelines-nord-stream-1-2-says-former-polish-defense-minister
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