Difference between revisions of "Conservapedia:Unofficial 2020 presidential election predictions"
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| [https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Polls/summer2020/summer2020---aggregate.pdf Progress Campaign Poll] || 06/26/20 || 517 || 38 || 52 | | [https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Polls/summer2020/summer2020---aggregate.pdf Progress Campaign Poll] || 06/26/20 || 517 || 38 || 52 | ||
| + | |} | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===Nebraska=== | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''College Votes at Stake: 5''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | Nebraska looks like it will swing to Candidate Biden this time. Polls show Candidate Biden has a comfortable solid lead in the state. | ||
| + | |||
| + | {| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;" | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | ! Source !! Date !! Sample !! Biden !! Trump | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | [https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1260396059685199872 DCCC Targeting] || May 2020 || 448 || 52 || 41 | ||
| + | |} | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===Nevada=== | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''College Votes at Stake: 6''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | Nevada looks like it will swing to President Trump this time. Polls show President Trump has a slight lead in the state. | ||
| + | |||
| + | {| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;" | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | ! Source !! Date !! Sample !! Biden !! Trump | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | [https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nevada-2020-biden-extends-lead-warren-jumps-to-second Emerson College] || Nov 2019 || 1089 || 49 || 51 | ||
|} | |} | ||
Revision as of 15:20, July 11, 2020
With the 2020 U.S. presidential election approaching, this project page is a list of state by state predictions made by Conservapedia editors to provide a helpful insight on the background of the overall election. Projections are made by analyzing the best and latest available polls in each state, as well as a host of non-numerical factors.
Contents
- 1 2016 Election Results
- 2 Statewide projections
- 2.1 Alabama
- 2.2 Alaska
- 2.3 Arizona
- 2.4 Arkansas
- 2.5 California
- 2.6 Colorado
- 2.7 Connecticut
- 2.8 Delaware
- 2.9 Florida
- 2.10 Georgia
- 2.11 Hawaii
- 2.12 Idaho
- 2.13 Illinois
- 2.14 Maine
- 2.15 Maryland
- 2.16 Massachusetts
- 2.17 Michigan
- 2.18 Minnesota
- 2.19 Mississippi
- 2.20 Missouri
- 2.21 Montana
- 2.22 Nebraska
- 2.23 Nevada
- 2.24 Ohio
- 2.25 Oklahoma
- 2.26 Tennessee
- 2.27 Texas
- 2.28 Washington
- 2.29 Wisconsin
- 3 National projections
- 4 2020 Election Projections
- 5 References
- 6 See also
2016 Election Results
| State | Hilary 2016 | Electoral Votes | Trump 2016 | Electoral Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 72,947 | 0 | 1,318,255 | 9 |
| Alaska | 116,454 | 0 | 163,387 | 3 |
| Arizona | 1,161,167 | 0 | 1,252,401 | 11 |
| Arkansas | 380,494 | 0 | 684,872 | 6 |
| California | 8,753,788 | 55 | 4,483,810 | 0 |
| Colorado | 1,338,870 | 9 | 1,202,484 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 897,572 | 7 | 673,215 | 0 |
| Delaware | 235,603 | 3 | 185,127 | 0 |
| Florida | 4,504,975 | 0 | 4,617,886 | 29 |
| Georgia | 1,877,963 | 0 | 2,089,104 | 16 |
| Hawaii | 266,891 | 4 | 128,847 | 0 |
| Idaho | 189,765 | 0 | 409,055 | 4 |
| Illinois | 3,090,729 | 20 | 2,146,015 | 0 |
| Indiana | 1,033,126 | 0 | 1,557,286 | 11 |
| Iowa | 653,669 | 0 | 800,983 | 6 |
| Kansas | 427,005 | 0 | 671,018 | 6 |
| Kentucky | 628,854 | 0 | 1,202,971 | 8 |
| Louisiana | 780,154 | 0 | 1,178,638 | 8 |
| Maine | 715,326 | 3 | 671,154 | 1 |
| Maryland | 1,677,928 | 10 | 943,169 | 0 |
| Massachusetts | 1,995,196 | 11 | 1,090,893 | 0 |
| Michigan | 2,268,839 | 0 | 2,279,543 | 16 |
| Minnesota | 1,367,716 | 10 | 1,322,951 | 0 |
| Mississippi | 485131 | 0 | 700714 | 6 |
| Missouri | 1,071,068 | 0 | 1,594,511 | 10 |
| Montana | 177,709 | 0 | 279,240 | 3 |
| Nebraska | 568,940 | 0 | 991,808 | 5 |
| Nevada | 539,260 | 6 | 512,058 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 348,526 | 4 | 345,790 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 2,148,278 | 14 | 1,601,933 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 385,234 | 5 | 319,667 | 0 |
| New York | 4,556,124 | 29 | 2,819,534 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 2,189,316 | 0 | 2,362,631 | 15 |
| North Dakota | 93,758 | 0 | 216,794 | 3 |
| Ohio | 2,394,164 | 0 | 2,841,005 | 18 |
| Oklahoma | 420,375 | 0 | 949,136 | 7 |
| Oregon | 1,002,106 | 7 | 782,403 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 2,926,441 | 0 | 2,970,733 | 20 |
| Rhode Island | 252,525 | 4 | 180,543 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 855,373 | 0 | 1,155,389 | 9 |
| South Dakota | 117,458 | 0 | 227,721 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 870,695 | 0 | 1,522,925 | 11 |
| Texas | 3,877,868 | 0 | 4,685,047 | 38 |
| Utah | 310,676 | 0 | 515,231 | 6 |
| Vermont | 178,573 | 3 | 95,369 | 0 |
| Virginia | 1,981,473 | 13 | 1,769,443 | 0 |
| Washington | 1,742,718 | 12 | 1,221,747 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 188,794 | 0 | 489,371 | 5 |
| Wisconsin | 1,382,536 | 0 | 1,405,284 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 55,973 | 0 | 174,419 | 3 |
| Total | 65,538,514 | 229 | 62,984,828 | 306 |
Statewide projections
To estimate the likely distribution of electoral college votes this November, a first stage is gathering cumulative data on polling from which to draw inferences.
Alabama
College Votes at Stake: 9
Alabama looks set to be another comfortable win for President Trump. Two different polls show the President with a comfortable 20 point lead over Biden. [1]
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | 2/11/20 | 625 | 38 | 58 |
| WPA Intelligence | 1/28/20 | 500 | 38 | 59 |
Alaska
College Votes at Stake: 3
Alaska was a Republican red state in the last election and all indications suggest it will be so again in 2020. A Zogby Analytics poll from July-August 2019 showed President Trump comfortably beating all candidates and beating Biden by 5. A more recent poll shows President Trump continues to lead Biden. And another shows a complete decimation. [2]
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | Jul-Aug 19 | 321 | 40 | 45 |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 2020 | 1081 | 45 | 48 |
| Auburn University | Jul 2020 | 558 | 41 | 55 |
Arizona
College Votes at Stake: 11
Arizona looks set to be a tough race this time. A couple of polls show Trump closely behind Biden, but within the margin of error, in the state. A June 2020 poll shows President Trump pulling ahead, supporting Conservapedia's analysis of President Trump's powerful ground game within the State.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 06/27/20 | 527 | 45 | 49 |
| Monmouth University | 03/14/20 | 847 | 46 | 43 |
| Public Policy Polling | 03/02/20 | 666 | 48 | 47 |
In addition, the ground support for President Trump looks very good in Arizona: "“We have over two million voter contacts,” said Keith Schipper, the campaign’s regional communications director responsible for Nevada and Arizona. “Contrast that with Joe Biden, who just hired his first two staffers last week. They are parachuting in to try to build these relationships. Arizona voted for the president in 2016 and it’s going to go for him again in November.” [3]
Arkansas
College Votes at Stake: 6
Arkansas will be a very comfortable victory for President Trump. Polls from February show President Trump sailing to victory with a lead of 22 points.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progress Campaign Poll | 02/27/20 | 643 | 36 | 58 |
California
College Votes at Stake: 55
California being one of the most liberal states in the union is a safe bet for the Democrats. Emerson Polling shows Biden leads Trump by 30 points, but only 54% of Californians expect Biden to be the next president. Enthusiasm for Trump is higher at 55% while sleepy Joe Biden has a low enthusiasm rate of 48% in California.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump | "Biden Expectation" |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Polling | 05/10/20 | 800 | 59 | 29 | 54 |
Colorado
College Votes at Stake: 9
Colorado has consistently polled in favor of Biden, but some of those polls were before the disclosures of Tara Reade that Biden sexually assaulted her had had their impact on voters. It remains to be seen if Biden's lead will decrease as a consequence of it in coming months.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five Thirty Eight | 05/06/20 | 600 | 55 | 36 |
| Five Thirty Eight | 05/05/20 | 380 | 53 | 35 |
| Five Thirty Eight | 02/19/20 | 485 | 46 | 43 |
Connecticut
Candidate Biden is favored to win in Connecticut. Polls show him in a commanding lead too distant to be merely coincidental or down to polling fraud.
College Votes at stake: 7
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | 05/06/20 | 945 | 56 | 33 |
Delaware
Candidate Biden is favored to win in Delaware. Polls show him in a commanding lead too distant to be merely coincidental or down to polling fraud.
College Votes at stake: 3
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalez Research | 01/27/20 | 410 | 56 | 40 |
Florida
College Votes at stake: 29
President Trump has a very good chance to win again in Florida. Polls show President Trump roughly tied with Biden, but the President has a strong base of support in the State.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 07/03/20 | 1072 | 46 | 46 |
Georgia
College Votes at stake: 16
President Trump has a very good chance to win again in Georgia. There are polls that show President Trump ahead of Biden, and the President has a strong base of support in the State.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Smart | 06/03/20 | 321 | 40 | 44 |
Hawaii
College Votes at stake: 4
Idaho
College Votes at stake: 4
Illinois
College Votes at stake: 20
Maine
College Votes at stake: 4
Candidate Biden is favored to win in Maine. Polls show him in a commanding lead too distant to be merely coincidental or down to polling fraud.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 07/02/20 | 1022 | 53 | 42 |
Maryland
College Votes at stake: 10
Candidate Biden is favored to win in Maryland. Polls show him in a commanding lead too distant to be merely coincidental or down to polling fraud.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalez Research | 07/02/20 | 810 | 59 | 35 |
Massachusetts
College Votes at Stake: 11
Massachusetts is a liberal blue state typically and was in the last election and all indications suggest it will be so again in 2020. An Emerson College poll showed Biden comfortably beating President Trump.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | May 20 | 740 | 67 | 33 |
Michigan
College Votes at Stake: 16
Michigan is a top swing state typically and it was an extremely close call in the last election, with President Trump eking out a narrow victory by less than 0.5%. All indications are it will be a close race again in 2020. An Atlas Intel poll from March 2020 shows President Trump in a narrow lead.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas Intel | Mar 20 | 1120 | 44 | 46 |
Minnesota
College Votes at Stake: 16
Minnesota is another swing state typically and was also a close call in the last election, with President Trump losing by a small margin less than 5%. All indications are it will be a close race again in 2020. A Mason Dixon poll from May 2020 shows President Trump behind Sleepy Joe Biden.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Dixon | May 2020 | 800 | 49 | 44 |
Mississippi
College Votes at Stake: 6
Mississippi is a red state which President Trump comfortably won in 2016. All indications are that he will win it again by a comfortable margin.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millsaps College | June 2020 | 568 | 41 | 50 |
Missouri
College Votes at Stake: 10
Missouri is a red state which President Trump comfortably won in 2016. All indications are that he will win it again by a comfortable margin.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research | June 2020 | 1152 | 43 | 51 |
Montana
College Votes at Stake: 3
Montana will be a very comfortable victory for President Trump. Polls show President Trump sailing to victory with a lead of 14 points.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progress Campaign Poll | 06/26/20 | 517 | 38 | 52 |
Nebraska
College Votes at Stake: 5
Nebraska looks like it will swing to Candidate Biden this time. Polls show Candidate Biden has a comfortable solid lead in the state.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting | May 2020 | 448 | 52 | 41 |
Nevada
College Votes at Stake: 6
Nevada looks like it will swing to President Trump this time. Polls show President Trump has a slight lead in the state.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Nov 2019 | 1089 | 49 | 51 |
Ohio
College Votes at Stake: 18
Ohians have high levels of enthusiasm for President Trump, at 70% vs just 39% for Biden, a factor that could be key in a landslide victory for the President. Trump's lead over Biden is much closer, at just 3 points, but the massive enthusiasm gap could have a huge impact e.g. on voter turnout, on election day, Nov. 3rd.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump | "Trump Expectation" |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Polling | 05/10/20 | 725 | 43 | 46 | 62 |
Oklahoma
College Votes at Stake: 7
Similar to 2016, President Trump should comfortably win Oklahoma, normally a reliably red state.
Tennessee
College Votes at Stake: 11
President Trump repeatedly demonstrates a very solid ground game and massive support in Tennessee. Conservapedia predicts he will almost certainly carry the state.
Texas
College Votes at Stake: 38
Texans are very enthusiastic about Trump (67%) compared to Biden (40%), a factor that could prove decisive in the end. Trump's lead over Biden is much closer, at just 5 points, but the huge enthusiasm gap suggests Biden is just unable to click with voters in the way that President Trump clearly has.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump | "Trump Excitement (Enthusiasm)" |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Polling | 05/10/20 | 800 | 41 | 46 | 61 |
Washington
College Votes at Stake: 12
Washington is a liberal blue state typically and was in the last election and all indications suggest it will be so again in 2020. A Zogby Analytics poll from July-August 2019 showed Biden comfortably beating President Trump.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | Jul-Aug 19 | 321 | 52 | 31 |
Wisconsin
College Votes at Stake: 10
Washington was a red state in the last election and there are indications suggest it will be so again in 2020. A recent poll shows President Trump maintaining a slight lead over Sleepy Joe Biden.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [1] | 06/25/20 | 1021 | 45 | 46 |
National projections
Stony Brook University's Professor Helmut Norpoth, who correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in 2016 against mainstream media naysaying, estimates there is a 91% likelihood that President Trump will win again in November 2020: ""OK, the key to the November election is the primaries. And, the only primaries [are] already giving us a lot of information," he explained.
And, based on that, Donald Trump won them very easily in his party," Norpoth continued. "Joe Biden -- the likely nominee for the Democrats -- had a great deal of trouble holding it together. But, on balance, it's that stronger performance of primaries that gives Donald Trump the edge in November."[4]
2020 Election Projections
| State | Biden 2020 | Electoral College Votes |
Trump 2020 | Electoral College Votes |
Comment: Explanation/Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 0 | 9 | Two polls showing clear victory with 20% lead. | ||
| Alaska | 0 | 3 | Five percentage point lead implies a likely victory. | ||
| Arizona | 0 | 11 | Too close to call, as more data is needed for clear inference, especially with fake "polling" rampant. While generally considered a red state, Arizona has long elected RINO John McCain into office, given a coalition of neocons that especially play an important political role in Maricopa County. Currently somewhat of a tossup, Trump's chances of winning are similar to Martha McSally's in the latter's concurrent Senate special election. The state is currently being carpetbagged by common sense-lacking California liberals who move there and continue voting for Democrats that favor destructive policies. Awarded to President Trump on strength of ground support. [5] | ||
| Arkansas | 0 | 6 | A comfortable lead of over 22% showing certain victory. | ||
| California | 55 | 0 | 30 point lead for Biden means he will be hard to beat here. | ||
| Colorado | 9 | 0 | Polls imply Biden has a lead of nearly 20 points in the state. At one point a Republican state, Colorado has been trending blue ever since the 2008 presidential race, although Trump lost by only just under 5% in the state in 2016. | ||
| Connecticut | 7 | 0 | Candidate Biden has a commanding lead in the polls. | ||
| Delaware | 3 | 0 | Candidate Biden has a commanding lead in the polls, although some have noted that the state isn't as solidly blue as many expect. | ||
| Florida | 0 | 29 | President Trump won Florida in 2016 and still has strong support; the state is known for tending to favor incumbents. | ||
| Georgia | 0 | 16 | President Trump comfortably won in 2016, although Georgia is slightly trending blue. | ||
| Hawaii | 4 | 0 | President Trump lost the state in 2016. | ||
| Idaho | 0 | 4 | President Trump comfortably won in 2016. | ||
| Illinois | 20 | 0 | President Trump lost the state in 2016. | ||
| Maine | 4 | 0 | Incumbent strongly favored. Trump lost in 2016. | ||
| Maryland | 10 | 0 | Incumbent strongly favored. Trump lost in 2016. | ||
| Massachusetts | 11 | 0 | Incumbent strongly favored. Trump lost in 2016. | ||
| Michigan | 0 | 16 | Polls show President Trump ahead of Biden. | ||
| Minnesota | 10 | 0 | Polls show President Trump behind Biden. | ||
| Mississippi | 0 | 6 | President Trump comfortably won in 2016 and is well ahead in the polls. | ||
| Missouri | 0 | 10 | President Trump comfortably won in 2016 and is well ahead in the polls. | ||
| Montana | 0 | 3 | Polls show President Trump way ahead of Biden. | ||
| Nebraska | 5 | 0 | Polls suggest Trump is falling behind in the state. | ||
| Nevada | 0 | 6 | Polls show President Trump ahead in the state. | ||
| New Hampshire | 4 | 0 | President Trump lost the state in 2016. | ||
| Ohio | 0 | 18 | Enthusiasm gap suggests a decisive victory for President Trump. | ||
| Oklahoma | 0 | 7 | Past trends suggests a likely victory for President Trump. | ||
| Tennessee | 0 | 11 | 3 separate polls point to decisive victory for the President. | ||
| Texas | 0 | 38 | Enthusiasm gap suggests a decisive victory for President Trump. | ||
| Washington | 12 | 0 | Polls show a comfortable lead and victory for Candidate Biden. | ||
| Wisconsin | 0 | 10 | Polls show President Trump is slightly ahead in the State. | ||
| Total (13-17 from 30 States) | 155 | 202 |
References
- ↑ https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/alabama/
- ↑ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/alaska/
- ↑ https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/23/at-arizona-church-rally-trump-gets-a-more-boisterous-crowd/
- ↑ https://www.foxnews.com/media/professor-predicted-trump-win-prediction-biden-2020
- ↑ https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/23/trump-rally-arizona-336565
