Difference between revisions of "Conservapedia:Unofficial 2020 Senate predictions"
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Revision as of 22:36, September 27, 2020
With the 2020 U.S. Senate elections approaching, this project page is a list of predictions made by Conservapedia editors to provide a helpful insight on the background of the elections, taking into account of key issues and factors.
| State | Fake News Projections (average) |
RCP ratings | Conservapedia Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Lean/Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Alaska | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Arizona (Special) | Lean D | Tossup | Tilt R |
| Arkansas | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Colorado | Lean D | Tossup | Tilt D |
| Delaware | Safe D | Safe D | Lean/Likely D |
| Georgia | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R |
| Idaho | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Illinois | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Iowa | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R |
| Kansas | Lean/Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Kentucky | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Maine | Tilt D | Tossup | Lean D |
| Massachusetts | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Michigan | Lean D | Tossup | Tilt R |
| Minnesota | Likely D | Tossup | Lean D |
| Mississippi | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Montana | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R |
| Nebraska | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| New Hampshire | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D |
| New Jersey | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D |
| New Mexico | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Texas | Lean/Likely R | Lean R | Likely R |
CP election ratings explanation
For the election ratings table to the right of the table of contents, the right column shows the Conservapedia predictions, with further specifications that ought to be noted. Unlike most election "predictions" from unreliable sources, the CP projections are less likely to change because they are based on long-term trends and relevant data rather than what certain fake "polls" may claim. For the "safe" ratings, these are all the seats that are guaranteed to favor one side and have zero chance of being vulnerable. For "likely", this refers to the Senate seats that are almost guaranteed to favor one side though have a potential to be somewhat vulnerable and result in closer margins than expected in the general election. For "lean", this refers to those that incline towards favoring one side though have a chance of ending up in close margins. "Lean/Likely" is also used for some seats that fall right between the two ratings. "Tilt" represents the seats that only slightly favor one side, where the other side would still have a strong chance of winning. "Tossup" would refer to any Senate seat that does not significantly favor any side and can result in either party (Republican or Democrat) taking victory.
Senate control analysis
An important note to firstly mention is the analysis behind the criteria for Senate control. Although Republicans currently have a majority with 53 seats, there are two RINOs that tend to dissent from their party line the most on key issues: Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. This means that the Republican Party needs at least fifty seats aside from these two senators if Donald Trump wins re-election, and fifty-one seats if the latter doesn't, as the vice president provides tie-breaking votes for the Senate if need be. Sen. Collins is up for re-election while Murkowski isn't. This means that in order for Republicans to maintain Senate control (assuming that despite the two RINO senators being unreliable, all other GOP senators will remain mostly in lockstep on votes), they cannot lose more than a net positive number of seats if Trump loses re-election (in this scenario disregarding whether Collins is re-elected or not), and cannot lose more than a net amount of one seat if Trump wins re-election (again without regards to whether Collins is re-elected/or not).
Current Scenario analysis
The Republican party currently has 53 seats in the Senate. 33 Senate Seats are up for grabs in 2020, and 2 special elections will take place. Of these 35 seats, Republicans will be defending 23 Seats, while Democrats will be defending 12 Seats.[1] Thus, for e.g. if the Republican party hopes to advance to a 60 vote majority, it will need to win a net total of 30 seats (i.e. reverse 7 democrat seats, while retaining all its seats, for e.g.).
Alabama
Democrat: Doug Jones
Republican: Tommy Tuberville
The Alabama Senate seat is a contest between Doug Jones and Tommy Tuberville. Jones is the incumbent but Tuberville is expected to win the election. This is due to the fact that Sen. Jones, despite representing a state Donald Trump won by over twenty-five points,[2] voted in favor of the sham articles of impeachment brought against the president.[3]
AL Background
Jones won election as a Democrat to the United States Senate in the 2017 Senate special election following the resignation of then-longtime incumbent Jeff Sessions to become United States Attorney General. The establishment-backed Luther Strange was initially appointed to replace Sessions, but finished second place in the Republican primary and lost in the runoff to his much more conservative and anti-establishment challenger Roy Moore.[4] After Moore faced allegations of sexual misconduct that he firmly stood against, his own party's establishment ganged up on him, with some RINOs such as Jeff Flake even endorsing and donating to Jones.[5][6]
AL Analysis
Every election rating and poll conducted for the general election so far has shown that Tuberville is inclined to win the general election over Sen. Jones.
Alaska
Republican: Dan Sullivan
Independent: Al Gross
In Alaska, one term Republican Dan Sullivan is running for re-election. The incumbent is being challenged by independent candidate Al Gross.
Arizona (Special)
Republican: Martha McSally
Democrat: Mark Kelly
The Arizona Senate election is a contest between Martha McSally and Mark Kelly. Conservapedia predicts Martha McSally will beat Mark Kelly for the seat.
Arkansas
Republican: Tom Cotton
Libertarian: Ricky Harrington
The race in Arkansas is between Tom Cotton and Ricky Harrington. Conservapedia predicts that Senator Cotton will easily retain his Senate seat with a strong win.
Colorado
Republican: Cory Gardner
Democrat: John Hickenlooper
The race in Colorado is between Cory Gardner and John Hickenlooper.
Delaware
Republican: Lauren Witzke vs attorney Jim DeMartino
Democrat: Chris Coons
The race in Delaware is between Chris Cooons and the winner of the race between Lauren Witzke and attorney Jim DeMartino.
Georgia
Republican: David Perdue
Democrat: Jon Ossoff
The race in Georgia is between David Perdue and Jon Ossoff.
Idaho
Republican: Jim Risch
Democrat: Paulette Jordan
The race in Idaho is between Jim Risch and Paulette Jordan.
Illinois
Democrat: Dick Durbin
Republican: Mark Curran
The race in Illinois is between Dick Durbin and Mark Curran.
Iowa
Republican: Joni Ernst
Democrat: Theresa Greenfield
The race in Iowa is between Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield.
Kansas
Republican: Roger Marshall
Democrat: Barbara Bollier
The race in Kansas is between the winner between Roger Marshall and Dave Lindstrom and Barbara Bollier.
Kentucky
Republican: Mitch McConnell
Democrat: Amy McGrath
The race in Kentucky is between Mitch McConnell and Amy McGrath.
Maine
Republican: Susan Collins
Democrat: Sara Gideon
The race in Maine is between Susan Collins and Sara Gideon.
Massachusetts
Republican: Shiva Ayyadurai vs. Kevin O'Connor
Democrat: Ed Markey vs. Joe Kennedy III
The race in Massachusetts is between Sen. Ed Markey and Kevin O'Connor.
Michigan
Republican: John James
Democrat: Gary Peters
The race in Michigan is between Gary Peters and John James.
Minnesota
Republican: Jason Lewis
Democrat: Tina Smith
The race in Minnesota is between Jason Lewis and Tina Smith.
Mississippi
Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Democrat: Mike Espy
The race in Mississippi is between Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy.
Montana
Republican: Steve Daines
Democrat: Steve Bullock
The race in Montana is between Steve Daines and Steve Bullock.
Nebraska
Republican: Ben Sasse
Democrat: Chris Janicek
The race in Nebraska is between Ben Sasse and Chris Janicek.
New Hampshire
Republican: Donald Bolduc
Democrat: Jeanne Shaheen
The race in New Hampshire is between Donald Buldoc and Jeanne Shaheen.
New Jersey
Democrat: Cory Booker
Republican: Rik Mehta
The race in New Jersey is between Cory Booker and Rik Mehta.
New Mexico
Democrat: Ben Ray Lujan
Republican: Mark Ronchetti
The race in New Mexico is between Ben Ray Lujan and Mark Ronchetti.
North Carolina
Democrat: Cal Cunningham
Republican: Thom Tillis
The race in North Carolina is between incumbent Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham.
Oklahoma
Democrat: Abby Broyles
Republican: Jim Inhofe
The race in Oklahoma is between Jim Inhome and Abby Broyles.
Oregon
Democrat: Jeff Merkley
Republican: Jo Rae Perkins
The race in Oregon is between Jeff Merkley and Jo Rae Perkins.
Rhode Island
Democrat: Jack Reed
Republican: Allen Waters
The race in Rhode Island is between Jack Reed and Allen Waters.
South Carolina
Democrat: Jaime Harrison
Republican: Lindsey Graham
The race in South Carolina is between Lindsey Graham and Jaime Harrison.
South Dakota
Democrat: Dan Ahlers
Republican: Mike Rounds
The race in South Dakota is between Mike Rounds and Dan Ahlers.
Tennessee
Democrat: Marquita Bradshaw
Republican: Bill Hagerty
Independent: Multiple candidates
The race in Tennessee is between Bill Hagerty, Marquita Bradshaw, and Independent Candidates.
Texas
Republican: John Cornyn
Democrat: Mary Hegar
The Texas Senate seat is a contest between John Cornyn and Mary Hegar. Conservapedia predicts that Mary Hegar will go on to be defeated by John Cornyn for the Senate Seat in November.
Virginia
Republican: Daniel Gade
Democrat: Mark Warner
The Virginia Senate seat is a contest between Mark Warner and Daniel Gade.
Wyoming
Republican: Cynthia Lummis
Democrat: Merav Ben-David
The Wyoming Senate seat is a contest between Cynthia Lummis and Merav Ben-David.
See also
External links
- Senate Ratings | Inside Elections
- Who wins 2020? Senate Elections Forecast - Politico
- 2020 Senate Race ratings | The Cook Political Report
Notes/References
- ↑ https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/2020-election-will-democrats-win-back-senate-914873/
- ↑ Alabama Election Results 2016
- ↑ Trump Impeachment Results: How Democrats and Republicans Voted
- ↑ Alabama Election Results: Two Republicans Advance, Democrat Wins in U.S. Senate Primaries
- ↑ Jeff Flake: 'No doubt' I'd support a Democrat over Roy Moore
- ↑ Flake donates $100 to Doug Jones campaign: 'Country over Party'