Difference between revisions of "Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes"

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*[https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7OWfEU1gv9Q Russia's predicament, Stephen Kotkin] (short video)
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7OWfEU1gv9Q Russia's predicament, Stephen Kotkin] (short video)
  
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If Russia suffers from "national narcissism" and believes that Russia is responsible for 61% of all world history, then Trump essentially has to "reason with crazy" so to speak. And you can't reason with crazy. So it's not surprising if it's true that the odds of Trump settling the conflict is less than 50% within the first 90 days of the Trump administration. But maybe Russia's sky-high inflation, Russian ruble that has fallen in value and Russia's big labor shortages will make the Russians more amenable to working out a deal with Trump soon.  
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If Russia suffers from "national narcissism" and believes that Russia is responsible for 61% of all world history, then Trump essentially has to "reason with crazy" so to speak. And you can't reason with crazy. So it's not surprising if it's true that the odds of Trump settling the conflict is less than 50% within the first 90 days of the Trump administration. But maybe Russia's sky-high inflation, Russian ruble that has fallen in value and Russia's big labor shortages, and an increasing chance of Russia falling into stagflation (Company bankruptcies are increasing in Ukraine due to the very high interest rates in Russia, etc.) will make the Russians more amenable to working out a deal with Trump soon.
  
 
Trump's team may eventually work out a deal with Russia (with the most likely outcome eventually being a frozen conflict that may flare up from time to time as mentioned above), but the odds does seem like it's less than 50% of it happening in the first 90 days of the Trump Administration.
 
Trump's team may eventually work out a deal with Russia (with the most likely outcome eventually being a frozen conflict that may flare up from time to time as mentioned above), but the odds does seem like it's less than 50% of it happening in the first 90 days of the Trump Administration.

Revision as of 05:43, December 31, 2024

Professor John Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

Mearsheimer predicted the war in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War)

In December 2023, Mearsheimer indicated that he believes that the war in Ukraine may turn into a frozen conflict within a year.[1] Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out its hard to predict.

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer). He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.[2]

On August 23, 2023, Axios reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."[3] By November of 2023, after a failed Spring offensive by Ukraine, a Ukrainian top aide was slamming the West over their war fatigue.[4] In December 2023, the U.S. Congress failed to pass Ukraine aid because they insisted the Biden Administration agree to legislation that secured the USA's southern border which the Biden Administration failed to do. It is expected that the GOP will likely hang tough and so the Democrats will eventually have to move much closer to the Republican position on the USA's border crisis.[5]

A Japan Times article published on November 6, 2023 entitled 'We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning:

“ In eastern Ukraine, where another grueling winter is descending — along with it a likely freeze in major frontline movements — one Ukrainian soldier had a grim assessment of the conflict.

The 35-year-old fighting near the war-battered town of Bakhmut went further than comments from Ukraine's most senior military official, who conceded this week that the war with Russia had reached a stalemate.

"I've been saying that for some time now already. Step by step we're losing the war," said the serviceman, who uses the call sign "Mudryi" (Wise).

"The longer this static war continues, the worse it is for us," he said in a phone interview.[6]

”

Business Insider reported on November 2023:

“ Soldiers in Ukraine are veering increasingly older as the country grapples with a shortage of soldiers after roughly 20 months of brutal fighting against Russia.

As countless casualties have hampered Ukraine's forces, the average age of a soldier in the country is currently around 43 years old, Time magazine reported last week.

That average is up by nearly 10 years from March 2022, one month after the war began, when the average age of a Ukrainian soldier was between 30 and 35 years old, according to FT.

"They're grown men now, and they aren't that healthy to begin with," a close aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Time. "This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia."[7]

”

Alexander Mercouris is a UK writer on international affairs who cohosts The Duran YouTube channel with Alex Christoforou who lives in Cyprus. The Duran YouTube channel is a pro-Russia YouTube channel. On November 8, 2023, The Duran YouTube channel, published the video West will choke on Putin's terms for Ukraine which pointed how badly the war was going for Ukraine and that Ukraine and the West will not like Russia's terms for ending the conflict. In addition, they stated that the "stalemate narrative" that various pro-Ukrainian advocates are pushing are fake, absurd and born of desperation and that the Ukrainian army is running out of fighting men. In addition, Mercoouris noted that although the Biden Administration and the collective West will be hurt by the war in Ukraine, "The United States will pull through" and that it's "not an existential disaster" for the USA, but for Europe (Especially Germany) it will be a big blow.

In a November 2023 interview, John Mearsheimer said although there is a slim chance that the war will end soon with a neutral Ukraine (Due to the distrust of Russia towards Ukraine/West as a result of the duplicitiousness of Ukraine/West during the Minsk Agreements), Russia will annex two to four more oblasts in Ukraine especially the oblasts of Odessa and Kharkiv before the war ends. Once again, Mearsheimer indicates that the war in Ukraine may end in a unstable frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for. (See: How the war in Ukraine will end | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman). Mearsheimer also predicts that there will be a security competition between the USA/West/Ukraine and Russia that continues even if there is a frozen conflict and the risk of escalation is great. I agree with Mearsheimer about these matters.

While the average post WWII war that last longer than a year last about 10 years, given the growing Ukraine fatigue in the USA/West and Ukraine's military weakness relative to Russia, I am increasingly optimistic that the war will end significantly sooner than 10 years.[8]

Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a pyrrhic victory (See: Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse and Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state.

Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.

December 31, 2024 update

As of December 31, 2024, the political betting market Polymarket gives a 42% chance of Trump ending the war in Ukraine in 90 days from his first day in office (See: Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days? ).

It's less than 50/50.

Here is something to consider: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Role in World History

Key quote: "Russians, for example, estimated that their country was responsible for 61% of world history." - Source: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528

Map data derived from: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528

Also, look at these resources:

If Russia suffers from "national narcissism" and believes that Russia is responsible for 61% of all world history, then Trump essentially has to "reason with crazy" so to speak. And you can't reason with crazy. So it's not surprising if it's true that the odds of Trump settling the conflict is less than 50% within the first 90 days of the Trump administration. But maybe Russia's sky-high inflation, Russian ruble that has fallen in value and Russia's big labor shortages, and an increasing chance of Russia falling into stagflation (Company bankruptcies are increasing in Ukraine due to the very high interest rates in Russia, etc.) will make the Russians more amenable to working out a deal with Trump soon.

Trump's team may eventually work out a deal with Russia (with the most likely outcome eventually being a frozen conflict that may flare up from time to time as mentioned above), but the odds does seem like it's less than 50% of it happening in the first 90 days of the Trump Administration.

Academic research

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics.

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine

“ Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[9] ”
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[10]

Ukraine fatigue and NATO/West funding the war in Ukraine

I see some definite signs of Ukraine fatigue such as the Republicans tying funding the war in Ukraine to border security across Mexico border and European right-wing parties gaining traction in Europe. In addition, as far as Russia, there appears to be various people in the Kremlin who are unhappy about this war.

And just when I got my hopes up that the war might end relatively soon like in about a year or two, I see Joe Biden, Germany's DW News, Bill Browder and Bloomberg News talk about confiscating Russia's $300 billion in frozen assets (which could hurt the value of the U.S. dollar):

Russian defector reveals that a 'majority' of people inside the Kremlin are unhappy with the war in Ukraine

See also: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?


The Grand Kremlin Palace is a building in the Moscow Kremlin.

The Moscow Kremlin is a fortified complex in the center of Moscow. The Moscow Kremlin now serves as the official residence of the Russian president and as a museum.

Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy

Endgame for the Ukrainian War

An Endgame for the Ukrainian War w/ John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen, 9-9-2023

Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about

See: Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about

February 2022 might prove to be a pivotal moment in the future of global politics

See: February 2022 might prove to be a pivotal moment in the future of global politics

The specific month of April 2022 was not a pivotal point in international politics that will affect international politics for 30 years

Economic effects of the war on Russia

See also: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

Russian oil and gas revenue is down

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas:

Russia's economy is not highly diversified. It is too dependent on oil and gas. See: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas. China's economy is having significant problems compared to its past. If China's economy gets worse (And there is some evidence that China's future economy will may worse this decade and beyond), that is going to hurt the Russian economy.

"Even the act of diverting supplies to Asia entails a significant reduction in Russian companies’ profit margins. It costs a lot more to transport oil to Asian markets than to Europe, and there is not much spare transport capacity, which pushes up the cost of freight, reducing the profit made by Russian companies, whatever the amount at which the price is capped.

The price cap also enables Asian buyers to obtain big discounts on Russian oil. China and India may not officially be enforcing the cap, but it’s hard to imagine that companies from those countries will not use it to barter the price down. Indeed, this is already happening: some shipments to China due to be loaded onto tankers in January were sold at $5–6 cheaper per barrel than usual."[11]

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy.

Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas.[12]
Russian monthly oil revenues from January 2022 to July 2023 (International Energy Agency estimates)[13]

In 2023, Russian oil revenues are considerably down from 2022.[14]

Countries with diversified economies are more resilient and stable:

Booz & Company was a global strategy consulting team established in the United States in 1914. The firm was acquired by PwC on April 4, 2014.

Below is the executive summary of their report entitled Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification

“ The effects of the recent global economic crisis were all-pervasive, and demonstrated that no economy is safe from destabilizing external events. Resource-dependent countries, with their narrow base of economic activity, are particularly vulnerable, but all countries may have vulnerabilities stemming from a lack of diversification in one or more economic dimensions, and they must be more vigilant in managing risks to their economies. Not only must a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) be balanced among sectors, but key elements of its economy must be varied, flexible, and readily applicable to a variety of economic opportunities, and areas of overconcentration must continually be identified and mitigated. Policymakers should work to achieve greater economic diversification, in order to reduce the impact of external events and foster more robust, resilient growth over the long term.

For resource-rich, developing economies, the immediate imperative is to diversify export-oriented sectors, but for the benefit of long-term sustainability, they must also look at the larger picture. A strong institutional and regulatory framework and workforce development initiatives are indispensable to the diversification effort; and proper management of human capital is key, especially in those countries experiencing a “demographic dividend.” Implementing such comprehensive diversification and risk management strategies won’t be easy, but the result—a diverse, stable, and growing economy—is worth the effort.[15]

”

Related articles:

Other major economic effects of the war in Ukraine on Russia

The MOEX Russia Index, or IMOEX, is a stock index that tracks the performance of the 50 largest and most liquid stocks across 10 sectors in Russia.

It is a capitalization-weighted composite index, which means that companies with larger market capitalization will constitute a larger percentage of the index's value.

Post the war in Ukraine, the MOEX index is down. However, in May of 2023 it was reported that the MOEX Russia Index has gained 24% in 2023 after tanking 42% in 2022.[16] Russia's stock market is boosted by domestic investors who have few options amid sweeping sanctions.[17]
Russian 100 ruble currency note

Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:

*Russian ruble slides to 16-month low against U.S. dollar as capital flight, shrinking trade surplus bite, Marketwatch, August 14, 2023

*Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects, Wall Street Journal, August 2023

*The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023, August, 2023

*Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble, Barron's, August 2023

*5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining, Business Insider, 2023
Chart of the currency exchange between the Russian ruble to dollars from December 5, 2003 to August 26, 2023

Russia's demographic crisis has been made worse by the war in Ukraine

Russia’s population nightmare is going to get even worse, 2023

The war in Ukraine has aggravated a crisis that long predates the conflict. See: Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia

Russia's fertility rate of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.[18] It's fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.[18] And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.[18]

Russia will go out swinging (Ukraine, etc.), but its age demographics (which is among the worst in the world in terms of an aging population) and other problems will cause a cultural collapse in Russia in the 21st century (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series). See: Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia

Russia, fertility rate and demographics videos:

The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse (See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse).

Other articles related this war in Ukraine making Russia's demographic crisis worse:

For more information, please see:

User: Conservative essays on international politics

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

General essays on international politics

The United States

China

Russia

See also

External links

References

  1. ↑ John Mearsheimer: There is no two-state solution
  2. ↑ Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18
  3. ↑ White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid, Axios, 2023
  4. ↑ Zelenskyy’s top aide slams West over ‘war fatigue’, Politico, 2023
  5. ↑ Political strategists on possible Ukraine aid-border security deal, GOP race for 2nd
  6. ↑ 'We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning, Japan Times
  7. ↑ The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems, Business Insider, 2023
  8. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  9. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  10. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  11. ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
  12. ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
  13. ↑ Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High, Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023
  14. ↑ Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High, Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023
  15. ↑ Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification, Booz & Company, 2011
  16. ↑ Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high, Business Insider, 2023
  17. ↑ Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high, Business Insider, 2023
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure, bne IntelliNews, 2022
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