Essay: Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?

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The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.

Please see: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

As far as the field of international relations, the education website Unacademy.com defines a unipolar world thusly, "A unipolar world is when the majority of the world is dominated by a single state or nation's military and economic power, and social and cultural influence." A bipolar world is when two countries are global superpowers. And a multipolar world is when three or more countries have major influence over the world.

Question: Why did so many self-declared international relations experts declare the nonsense of a multipolar world when the world was actually a bipolar world with socioeconomic indicators indicating that China was headed for decline? See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

There was plenty of data showing them to be in error which I cover in my essays below.

The myth of a multipolar world:

The major powers of the USA, China and Russia:

Contents

5 reasons why many self-declared international experts miserably failed concerning their multipolar fantasy

See also: Slow and steady growth over the long term via capitalism and the rule of law versus short-sighted authoritarian economic growth that is costly to the long term economy

They don't understand basic macroeconomics and macroeconomics history

Do you remember the story of the tortoise and the hare which taught that slow and steady wins the race?

It turns out that this is right when it comes to economies. A great video on this matter is at Should You Be Bullish on America?

Do you remember the story of the tortoise and the hare which taught that slow and steady wins the race? It turns out that this is right when it comes to economies. A great video on this matter is at Should You Be Bullish on America?

A few points:

1. Capitalism is far superior economically to socialism/communism (See: Socialism vs. Capitalism: One Clear Winner). Many ardent cheerleaders of the multipolar fantasy are anti-capitalist individuals who don't understand basic economics. As a result of this, they are communist China cheerleaders.

2. The communist Soviet Union saw a spectacular rise in its economy and then crashed and burned. See: Why the USSR Collapsed Economically, Investopedia

Japan experienced lost decades of economic stagnation due to a balance sheet recession. China for some of the same reasons plus other major reasons is headed for long-term economic decline in all likelihood.

3. Capitalistic countries with the rule of law are far more efficient than communist countries with their rampant corruption and they are more efficient than non-communist kleptocracies as well. Many China/Russia cheerleaders turn a blind eye to the rampant corruption in China and Russia (See: Chinese Communist Party and corruption and Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian).

In 2023, the USA was over 200% more productive in terms of labor productivity than Russia when measured using purchasing power parity.[1][2] In 2023, the USA was over 400% more productive in terms of labor productivity than China when measured using purchasing power parity.[3][4] See: The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia

4. There are very strong socioeconomic reasons to believe that the United States will remain the leading power in the world

See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

5. Failure to understand economic forecasting.

They stay in their self-imposed ideological bubbles. They fail to see the big picture and be more investigative/analytic in their approach

See also: Essay: Don't believe all the political news "facts" and predictions you read on the internet and see on the news

Question: Did you know that a great many so-called political experts have a very poor track record when it comes to their predictions? It's true. Although some political experts practice critical thinking and try to falsify their notions/theories, most do not.

Question: Did you know that is very doable to be a better forecaster in terms of politics, economics and other future events? There is a great book on this matter by the political science writer and political science professor Philip E. Tetlock entitled Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction which has some fascinating information. And the book has received a lot of positive reviews by various people involved in forecasting. In addition, Tetlock wrote: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006).

There was a large study on this matter of the unreliability of many political experts and I give the resources related to this matter below.

Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of individuals in which the quest for harmony/conformity within the group results in irrational and/or poor decision-making.

The data shows that pundits who choose to live in self-imposed ideological bubbles in terms of their information sources suffer from groupthink and I give the data below.

1. It is much better to receive a broad spectrum of information in order to more deeply understand the present and better understand various trends that will affect the future.

Please see:

Tetlock found that political experts who practice critical thinking and try to falsify their notions/theories are more reliable than those who do not when it comes to political forecasting. And he also found that most political experts do not do this when it comes to forecasting. In addition, political experts who keep track of the times that they are right vs. the times they are wrong when engaged in forecasting also are more likely to achieve superior results.

2. Arthur C. Brooks wrote in his article Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being: "A 2012 survey conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University asked a sample of Americans about their news-consumption habits, and quizzed them about U.S. and international political and economic events. They found that those watching the most partisan television news sources—on both the left and the right—were often less knowledgeable about world events than those who consumed no news at all."[5]

3. Political betting markets have better accuracy than polls and pundits.

Jonestown was a classic example of how groupthink and ideological rigidity leads to poor decision making.

"I was an atheist even then, and at that funeral parlor they held me up to look at her, and when I got down, I was bitter." - Jim Jones [6]

They don't understand the power and advantages that constitutional republics and democracies have over authoritarian regimes. They buy into authoritarian regimes' propaganda

Please see:


In the above map, the Western World regions of the world are colored light blue.

There are countries in Asia that have adopted much of Western values such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

The above graphic comes from the video Why the West Won’t Collapse with Stephen Kotkin (Stephen Kotkin is an American historian, academic, and author.)

We live in a narcissistic and illogical age where many people have inflated opinions of themselves and their wrongheaded pet theories

Narcissus by Michelangelo Merisi da Caravaggio.

Narcissism is excessive love of oneself. The word is based on the Greek myth of Narcissus, who resisted the advances of a nymph and was consequently made to fall in love with his own reflection. In psychology, extreme narcissism is a symptom of Narcissistic personality disorder, in which a person overestimates his own abilities and attractiveness, at the expense of concern for the needs and feelings of others.

Many social commentators and sociologists have commented on the fact that we live in a narcissistic age where narcissism has reached very concerning levels. The baby boom generation have been called the "Me Generation" and as they say, "The acorn does not fall far from the tree."

For a variety of reasons, narcissists are terrible forecasters (See: Why narcissists are terrible forecasters who can't improve their forecasting ability (Explains the shortsightedness of narcissists)).

For example, these articles cover this social phenomenon:

Presently, there appears to be a higher education bubble that will burst.[7] In addition, college is clearly not delivering the goods in terms of intellectual development for a large percentage of its students. An American study found that forty-five percent of students achieved no significant improvement in their critical thinking, reasoning or writing skills during their first two years of college. After four years, 36 percent displayed no significant increases in these so-called "higher order" thinking skills.[8] Students, particularly those who made poor curriculum choices, are increasingly angry that college does not adequately prepare them for the marketplace and leaves them with a pile of debt.[9]

Dr. Thomas Sowell is an American economist, social theorist, and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.[10][11] Sowell has a Ph.D in Economics from University of Chicago along with an undergraduate degree from Harvard University. Commenting on the arrogance and the left-wing bias in academia which has turned many universities and colleges into indoctrination centers, Sowell stated: "Too much of what is called 'education' is little more than an expensive isolation from reality."[12]

Sowell has conducted a number of interviews where he comments on how academia's arrogant, politically left-wing leaning, wrongheaded thinking has filtered down into society and how intellectuals have undue influence on society:

Pets are wonderful companions and families love their pets.

Unrealistic and short-sighted pet theories are a lot less lovable.

Personal characteristics of superforecasters according to the research from the Good Judgment Project

The Good Judgment Project (started in 2011) indicates that well-chosen selected amateur forecasters who demonstrate their ability to accurately forecast are often more accurate than subject matter experts.[13]

See also: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction and Forecasting

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a 2016 book about forecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

The book reports on a wealth of data coming from the The Good Judgment Project (started in 2011) which indicates that well-chosen selected amateur forecasters who demonstrate their ability to accurately forecast are often more accurate than subject matter experts.[14]

Characteristics of "superforecasters":[15][16]

- Temperament: Cautious (Many things are uncertain), Humble (Reality is infinitely complex), Non-Determinist.

- Cognition: Open-Minded (Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected), Intelligent, Curious (Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges), Reflective (Introspective and self-critical), Numerate (Comfortable with numbers).

- Analytical: Pragmatic (Not wedded to any idea or agenda), Dragonfly-Eyed (Value diverse views and synthesize them into your own), Probabilistic, Thoughtful Updaters (When facts change, they change their minds), Intuitive Psychologist (Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive biases and emotional biases).

- Work Ethic: Growth Mindset, Grit (Determined to keep at it however long it takes)

Thou shall think clearly and creatively. Thou shall not commit logical fallacies.

See also: Increasing cognitive performance

Jesus said to him, "You shall love the Lord your God with all your heart, and with all your soul, and with all your mind."

A mind is a terrible thing to waste!

Aristotle
Socrates
Plato

Favorite book on critical thinking

  • The Thinker's Way by John Chaffee, Ph.D., Little, Brown and Company; First Edition (October 1, 1998)

Favorite websites dealing with thinking, critical thinking and logical fallacies

Logical fallacies
Creativity
Cognitive distortions/biases

The BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters in Shanghai, China. The future economic decline of China

According to Investopedia, "BRICS refers to certain emerging market countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and more—that seek to establish deeper ties between member nations and cooperate on economic expansion, including trade. The countries act as a counterbalance to traditional Western influence."[17]

In terms of countries each countries GNP and the adding of the GNP of countries that are allies of the United States or lean to the United States as opposed to countries that are allies of China or lean towards China, the U.S. holds an advantage in terms of economical dominance and this state of affairs could continue for the foreseeable future (See: The US retains the economic advantage in its rivalry with China. America and its allies remain more united and economically powerful than Beijing’s group of allies, Financial Times, November 29, 2023).

The BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters is in Shanghai, China.

Naval power is part of power projection which is the capacity of a country to deploy and sustain forces outside its territory.

Colonel Douglas MacGregor said about China in the video Why China's Navy is a JOKE: "China has huge problems just holding itself together. So I think we should set China aside and understand that."[18] See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters in Shanghai, China.

China's skyscraper boom is officially over.[19]

China has likely peaked and economic trouble is heading its way. See: China has likely peaked arguments
China is no longer set to eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.

That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.”

Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.[20]

See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

International Relations Analyst Mark Sleboda on Brian Berlectic's pro-Russia New Atlas YouTube channel indicates that "We are not in a multipolar world."

"We are not in a multipolar world." - International Relations and Security Analyst Mark Sleboda on Brian Berlectic's pro-Russia New Atlas YouTube channel.[21]

An ego-deflating bonanza of self-declared Russia and international relations experts is going to occur. It will be a popping of their huge egos of biblical proportions!

See also: An ego-deflating bonanza of self-declared Russia experts and international relations experts is going to occur. It will be a popping of their huge egos of biblical proportions!

Russia's share of the world's economy is expected to shrink by 2028:

The article Is Russia the World’s 5th Largest Economy in GDP, PPP? indicates:

“ But what if we were to look ahead? How would Russia fare in the ranking of Europe’s and the world’s largest economies in the future? Again, we consulted the IMF, whose estimates go to 2028. These estimates show that in 2028 Russia’s share in the world’s GDP, PPP, in constant dollars will shrink, making it seventh among the countries with the largest shares in the world’s GDP. The IMF predicts that Russia’s share in the world’s GDP will decline from 2.92% in 2022 to 2.58% in 2028 (see Table 4), a decrease of 11.64%.[22] ”

Question: What will an examination of the claims of self-declared international relations experts who claim we live in a multipolar, who are nothing more than China/Russia cheerleaders, yield in 2030 or 2035 perhaps? Will their multipolar bubble boy delusions finally burst?

Given what is going on in China economically, their delusions could very well shatter - especially concerning China and Russia. See: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines

As far as the 21st century popping many self-declared Russia experts and international relations experts delusions of grandeur, if it doesn't occur by 2035, it's just a matter of time before it occurs (See: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future).


Pop Goes Many 21st century China/Russia Weasel Leaders Positions in Government song

  • Up and down the City Road,
  • In and out the Eagle,
  • That's the way the money goes,
  • Pop! Goes the weasel.
  • Investors up and down the world,
  • In and out the stocks and bonds,
  • That's the way the money goes,
  • Pop! Goes many 21st century China/Russia weasel leaders positions in government!

See also:

Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines

General international politics essays

User: Conservative's international relations essays

User:Conservative's essays

Related essay:

See also

References

  1. ↑ Statistics on Labour Productivity, International Labor Organization website
  2. ↑ List of countries by labor productivity (Ranked using purchasing power parity)
  3. ↑ Statistics on Labour Productivity, International Labor Organization website
  4. ↑ List of countries by labor productivity (Ranked using purchasing power parity)
  5. ↑ Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being by Arthur C. Brooks, The Atlantic, 2020
  6. ↑ An untitled collection of reminiscences by Jim Jones
  7. ↑ Multiple references:
  8. ↑ Rimer, Sara (January 18, 2011). "Study: Many college students not learning to think critically". The Hechinger Report. Reprinted at McClatchyDC website/News/Nation-World/National.
  9. ↑ Vedder, Richard (April 5, 2011). "The higher education bubble". Forbes website/Sites/CCAP.
  10. ↑ http://www.tsowell.com/cv.html
  11. ↑ https://www.hoover.org/profiles/thomas-sowell
  12. ↑ Conservative Quotes and Messages
  13. ↑ "Unclouded vision". The Economist. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
  14. ↑ "Unclouded vision". The Economist. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
  15. ↑ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary
  16. ↑ Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills, Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock
  17. ↑ BRICS: Acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, Investopedia
  18. ↑ Why China's Navy is a JOKE
  19. ↑ China's skyscraper boom is over
  20. ↑ China Slowdown Means It May Never Overtake US Economy, Forecast Shows, Bloomberg News, September 5, 2023
  21. ↑ The New Atlas LIVE: Mark Sleboda on West Pivots to "Long War" in Ukraine, Industry to Decide Victor, Mark Sleboda at around the 2 hour and 6 minute point in the video
  22. ↑ Is Russia the World’s 5th Largest Economy in GDP, PPP?, Russia Matters website, 2023
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