Difference between revisions of "Essay: December 2021 was a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come"
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For multiple reasons, I am not bullish on Russia's future. See: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]] | For multiple reasons, I am not bullish on Russia's future. See: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]] | ||
− | One of the reasons is that Russia has too many eggs in the sell oil and gas to the China basket | + | One of the reasons is that Russia has too many eggs in the sell oil and gas to the China basket (See: [[Essay: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies|Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies]]). |
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There are definite signs that China's economy faces a decline in the future (See: [[Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power|Skepticism about China remaining a global power]]). | There are definite signs that China's economy faces a decline in the future (See: [[Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power|Skepticism about China remaining a global power]]). |
Revision as of 16:22, March 28, 2024
Question: Was December 2021 a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come?
Newsweek's 2024 article China's Economic Slump Wipes 155 Billionaires off Global Rich List reported "The signs of trouble for the Chinese economy have been flashing red since troubles for real estate giant Evergrande began in 2021."
On January 31, 2024 CNN reported concerning China's real estate crisis:
“ | The liquidation of Evergrande as ordered by a court this week has raised more questions than answers about how the collapse of the poster child of China’s real estate crisis will affect investors, thousands of workers, and homebuyers waiting for their apartments
After the company defaulted on its offshore debt in December 2021, sending shockwaves through the world's second largest economy, the Chinese government has taken a leading role in guiding the company through a restructuring. The liquidation of Evergrande as ordered by a court this week has raised more questions than answers about how the collapse of the poster child of China’s real estate crisis will affect investors, thousands of workers, and homebuyers waiting for their apartments.[5] |
” |
China has been in the midst of a real estate crisis (See: China's real estate crisis). Since 2021, China’s stock markets have lost about $7 trillion in value (See: Chinese stock markets).[6] On February 17, 2024, the South China Morning Post reported that China’s young adults choose to be ‘full-time children’, paid by their parents to do chores amid record-high youth unemployment.[7][8] The Chinese phrase "full-time children" refers to young people who give up working and just live off their parents (See: Youth unemployment in China).[9][10]
On February 6, 2024, Yahoo Finance said concerning the Chinese real estate crisis:
“ | China's overreliance on real estate has sent its economy tumbling toward 2008-era financial conditions, Kyle Bass told CNBC on Tuesday.
"This is just like the US financial crisis on steroids," the Hayman Capital founder said. "They have three and a half times more banking leverage than we did going into the crisis. And they've only been at this banking thing for a couple of decades." The years of double-digit growth China enjoyed prior to the pandemic were made possible by an unregulated real estate market, Bass noted, which leaned too heavily on debt to expand. With defaults now plaguing the industry, this spells massive trouble for the country's broader economy. The real estate sector makes up around a quarter of the country's GDP and 70% of household wealth. "The basic architecture of the Chinese economy is broken," Bass summarized.[11] |
” |
Contents
- 1 The writing is on the economic wall: China's economy has likely peaked
- 2 We live in a bipolar world where the second leading power China is financially struggling
- 2.1 John Joseph Mearsheimer and U.S. relations with China and Russia
- 2.2 The historian Stephen Kotkin calls the notion of a multipolar world "nonsense"
- 2.3 C. Mojan Raja, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, on the myth of a multipolar world
- 2.4 International Relations Analyst Mark Sleboda on Brian Berlectic's pro-Russia New Atlas YouTube channel indicates that "We are not in a multipolar world."
- 3 Why I am not bullish on Russia's future
- 4 General international politics essays
- 5 Essays about the United States
- 6 Essays about China
- 7 Essays about Russia
- 8 Essays about Israel
- 9 Essays about the war in Ukraine
- 10 See also
- 11 External links
- 12 References
The writing is on the economic wall: China's economy has likely peaked
The January 23, 2024 South China Morning Post article China claims ‘biggest corruption in statistical sphere’ amid fake data crackdown indicates: "The accuracy of China's economic data has long been questioned, as many feel there is a gap between reality on the ground and the official figures, and Beijing has intensified efforts to crack down on data fraud in recent years amid efforts to dispel doubts."
With the above in mind, as can be seen by the below articles and videos, there is an abundant amount of evidence indicating that China's economy has likely peaked.
Articles:
- China’s rise is reversing, Financial Times, November 20, 2023 (The past two years have seen the largest drop in the China’s share of global GDP since the Mao era)
- Who Killed the Chinese Economy?, Foreign Affairs, November 14, 2023, Video for article
- China’s ticking baby time bomb, corruption, debt will lead to economic collapse by Steven Mosher, September 16, 2023
- China's 19.6% youth unemployment rate is nearing a record-high and may pose 'a threat to social stability', Fortune 2023
- China's Youth Unemployment At Record Highs: Meet The Jobless Graduates, China has over 20% youth unemployment
- China Is A Dying Paper Dragon by Chet Nagle, June 21, 2023
- China’s economic malaise boils down to ‘a failure to reform’ the system, Pathfinder report warns, South China Morning Post, October 5, 2023
- Is China Past Its Peak?, Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2023
- Has China’s Growth Gone from Miracle to Malady?, Brookings Institution, March 30-31, 2023
- Is Chinese power about to peak?, The Economist, 2023
- The End of China’s Economic Miracle, Foreign Affairs, 2023
- China's working population will shrink in the coming decades and keep the nation's economy from surpassing America's, research firm says, Business Insider, 2023
Videos:
- The Four Big Structural Forces Holding Back China's Economy, Bloomberg Podcast
- Why China Is on the Brink of Its Biggest Crisis in Decades, VisualEconomik EN
- China has a multitude of economic problems right now: China strategist, Bloomberg, August 28, 2023
- China’s Bracing for Another Collapse in Their Real Estate Market - In 2021, Evergrande, one of China's largest real estate developers, defaulted on its debt. Now Country Garden, which is the largest property developer by number of projects, is at risk of defaulting as well.
- Don't Be Surprised by China's Collapse, 9-19-2023
- 3 Reasons China Won't Overtake the US, TLDR News US
- China’s Economy is Weaker Than You Think, China Uncensored YouTube channel, August 2023
We live in a bipolar world where the second leading power China is financially struggling
As far as the field of international relations, the education website Unacademy.com defines a unipolar world thusly, "A unipolar world is when the majority of the world is dominated by a single state or nation's military and economic power, and social and cultural influence." A bipolar world is when two countries are global superpowers. And a multipolar world is when three or more countries have major influence over the world.
In his February 22, 2024 article Tipped Power Balance: China’s Peak and the U.S. Resilience, Yanzhong Huang wrote concerning China's waning economic power: "China's decline in economy and influence might indicate its unlikeliness to displace the United States as a leading global power in the foreseeable future. This development calls for a reevaluation of the U.S. policy towards China."[12]
A strong case can be made that we live in a bipolar world, where the second leading power is economically struggling.
Previously, I wrote the related essays:
The material below argues that the world is not presently multipolar.
- The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, April 18, 2023
- The multipolarity thesis: the verdict of Unhedged and Chartbook, Financial Times, October 12, 2023
- No, the World Is Not Multipolar, Foreign Affairs, September 22, 2023
- Multipolarity: What Is It Good For? (Discussion of the above Foreign Affairs article The Myth of Multipolarity, 2023)
John Joseph Mearsheimer and U.S. relations with China and Russia
In his 2023 interview the South China Post, Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer stated about U.S. relations with China and Russia:
“ | The Americans have a vested interest in pivoting full force to East Asia, to contain China. The Americans view China as a more serious threat than Russia. It’s very important to understand that China is a peer competitor to the United States. China is a rising great power and is a threat to the US in ways that Russia is not. So the Americans have a vested interest in not getting bogged down in a war in eastern Europe, more specifically in Ukraine.
Furthermore, they have a vested interest in doing everything they can to make sure that Russia and China are not close allies. What happens as a result of the Ukraine war is that it’s almost impossible for the US to fully pivot in Asia.[27] |
” |
In his March 2022 interview with The New Yorker, Mearsheimer indicated:
“ | I’m talking about the raw-power potential of Russia—the amount of economic might it has. Military might is built on economic might. You need an economic foundation to build a really powerful military. To go out and conquer countries like Ukraine and the Baltic states and to re-create the former Soviet Union or re-create the former Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe would require a massive army, and that would require an economic foundation that contemporary Russia does not come close to having. There is no reason to fear that Russia is going to be a regional hegemony in Europe. Russia is not a serious threat to the United States. We do face a serious threat in the international system. We face a peer competitor. And that’s China. Our policy in Eastern Europe is undermining our ability to deal with the most dangerous threat that we face today.[28] | ” |
The historian Stephen Kotkin calls the notion of a multipolar world "nonsense"
Stephen Kotkin is an American historian, academic, and author. Kotkin's most prominent book project is his three-volume biography of Joseph Stalin.
Kotkin calls the notion of multipolar world "nonsense".[29]
C. Mojan Raja, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, on the myth of a multipolar world
C. Mojan Raja, the Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore wrote about the myth of the multipolar world: "the myth of multipolarity endures in Indian foreign policy discourse even as a bipolar world takes shape. While official Delhi is nimbly adapting to the realities of a bipolar world, the Indian foreign policy discourse continues to be tied down by multipolar confusion."[30]
International Relations Analyst Mark Sleboda on Brian Berlectic's pro-Russia New Atlas YouTube channel indicates that "We are not in a multipolar world."
"We are not in a multipolar world." - International Relations and Security Analyst Mark Sleboda on Brian Berlectic's pro-Russia New Atlas YouTube channel.[31]
Why I am not bullish on Russia's future
See also: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future
For multiple reasons, I am not bullish on Russia's future. See: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future
One of the reasons is that Russia has too many eggs in the sell oil and gas to the China basket (See: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies).
There are definite signs that China's economy faces a decline in the future (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power).
Chinese Economic Collapse is Russia’s Downfall:
Chinese Economic Collapse is Russia’s Downfall, Interview with Volodymyr Ludovskyy PhD, Professor of Economics, Indiana University, 9-12-2023
Before the outbreak of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China promised to back Russia “eternally”. However, China’s economy is now in decline – and it might take Russia down with it. China is facing a variety of factors that are strangling it: Youth unemployment of over 20%, more citizens seeking to leave, and a debt situation that has grown out of control.[32]
Unfortunately for Moscow, their strongest economic partner’s economy is falling apart.[33] See also: A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall
Key point:
Given China's major problems, it is just a matter of time before they surface. So the question is not if China faces big economic problems, but when. And when that day arrives, Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines. Right now, Russia is focusing on their war economy due to the war in Ukraine. So the important work of diversifying its economy is not occurring to the extent it should.
Furthermore, the war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse as can be seen by the resources given below so it will have less labor and less brain power to solve this problem.
War in Ukraine causing Russia's demographic crisis worse:
- Russia Facing Population Disaster - Demographic Crisis, Employee Shortages & Economic Crisis
- Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die, The Telegraph, February 2023
- Millennials and Gen Z are blaming Putin for intensifying Russia’s baby shortfall: ‘It’s pretty bad for us’, Fortune magazine, December 3, 2022
- Dramatic Population Drop in Russia, as War, COVID and Emigration Exacerbate Declining Births, 6/03/2023
Russia is experiencing a brain drain:
- Russia's economy faces a 'massive brain drain' as over 1 million young workers exit labor force, Markets Insider, 2023
- The Great Russian Brain Drain, Novaya Gazeta Europe, 2023
- As Russia sees tech brain drain, other nations hope to gain, Associated Press, 2022
General international politics essays
- The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?
- The so-called multipolar world is often mere Chinese propaganda and public relations
- Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?
- What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?
- Why has the West been so successful?
- Why the corrupt, authoritarian regimes of China and Russia are losing their long term competitive edge relative to the USA
- Slow and steady growth over the long term via capitalism and the rule of law versus short-sighted authoritarian economic growth that is costly to the long term economy
- American and Western triumphalism or a realistic appraisal of world affairs?
- Attention anti-American hyper Russophiles/Sinophiles. Time is not on your side
- The 2023 BRICS Summit was a bunch of hoopla. We still don't live in a multipolar world.
- The wreck of the HMS Multipolar World Fantasy - Humor
- The anti-Christianity Mao Zedong, Fidel Castro, Joseph Stalin and Xi Jinping have opposed homosexuality so this isn't a very high moral bar for China and Russia to clear
Essays about the United States
- The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
- The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia
- Is the USA an economic powerhouse and juggernaut?
- Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world
- Top 12 reasons why people are flocking to the USA and leaving the corrupt, authoritarian countries of China and Russia
- Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?
- The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come
- The USA can reduce its national debt. It has done it before
- The citizens of the United States are happier than the citizens of Russia and China. USA! USA! USA!
- The U.S. Navy is the most powerful navy in the world
- Gold reserves by country. The USA is still golden!
- The genius of the founding fathers of the United States, happiness and labor productivity
- Why I am glad that Conservapedia has an American flag in its logo rather than a Chinese or Russian flag
- The USA will become bigger, better and stronger than ever before! Russia and China will not! USA! USA! USA! - Humor
- Attention all hyper Sinophiles/Russophiles. The USA being better than China and Russia is an incredibly low bar for Americans to jump over!
Essays about China
Essays about Russia
Essays about Israel
- The Russian Army compared to the Israeli army. Why is the Israeli army so outstanding?
- Israel's efficient mobilization of soldiers vs. Russia's far less efficient mobilization of soldiers related to the war in Ukraine
Essays about the war in Ukraine
See also
External links
- USA – the unstoppable juggernaut?, 2023
- What makes the US economy so resilient?, The Hill, 2023
- Fresh Growth Numbers Are Set to Show US Remains Economic Powerhouse, Bloomberg News, 2023
- USA: The Most Powerful Country in the World, Nomad Capitalist
- Will the US Be Weaker in 2050 than Today?, American Enterprise Institute, April 2023
- SWOT analysis of the USA (U.S. SWOT analysis) (SWOT is an acronym for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats)
- Ben Shapiro Explains Why the U.S. Is the Greatest Country in the World - video
China related:
- China economy overtaking U.S. is increasingly unlikely, Newsweek, 2024
- China challenging US superpower status is ‘not inevitable’, says Xi Jinping, Mint News, 2023
- Strongman economics aren't working for China and Russia, Axios website, August 15, 2023
- More see U.S. as top global economy over China in post-COVID reversal, Axios, June 2023
- Russia’s population shrinks and China’s ages, Shifting demographics are posing unprecedented challenges for China and Russia, April 2023
- Why China’s Bid To Become A Superpower Is Doomed To Failure, Forbes, August 2023
- The Decline of Russia and China, 2022 video featuring George Friedman at the U.S. Naval Institute
Additional resource:
- World's Top Economies, Investopedia
References
- ↑ The Top 25 Economies in the World, Investopedia
- ↑ this the end of Evergrande? Here’s what may happen next, CNN, 2024
- ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
- ↑ China Slowdown Means It May Never Overtake US Economy, Forecast Shows, Bloomberg News, September 5, 2023
- ↑ this the end of Evergrande? Here’s what may happen next, CNN, 2024
- ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
- ↑ China’s young adults choose to be ‘full-time children’, paid by their parents to do chores amid record-high youth unemployment, South China Morning Post, February 17, 2024
- ↑ China’s ‘full-time’ children, video
- ↑ China’s young adults choose to be ‘full-time children’, paid by their parents to do chores amid record-high youth unemployment, South China Morning Post, February 17, 2024
- ↑ China’s ‘full-time’ children, video
- ↑ China is facing the US financial crisis 'on steroids' as the real estate market collapses, famed hedge fund boss says, Yahoo Finance, February 6, 2024
- ↑ Tipped Power Balance: China’s Peak and the U.S. Resilience by Yanzhong Huang, Council on Foreign Relations website, February 22, 2024
- ↑ Trump to West Point grads: 'We are ending the era of endless wars', Reuters, June 13, 2022
- ↑ Trump to West Point grads: 'We are ending the era of endless wars', Reuters, June 13, 2022
- ↑ Should You Be Bullish on America?
- ↑ Labor Productivity: What It Is, How to Calculate & Improve It, Investopedia
- ↑ 25 Most Productive Countries Per Capita, Yahoo Finance
- ↑ Most Productive Countries 2024
- ↑ The U.S. Is (Again) Among the World's Top Innovators, U.S. News and World Report, 2023
- ↑ Global Innovation Index 2023: Switzerland, Sweden and the U.S. lead the Global Innovation Ranking; Innovation Robust but Startup Funding Increasingly Uncertain
- ↑ World's Most Innovative Countries, Statista website, 2023
- ↑ Countries With The Most Diverse Economies
- ↑ US Oil Production Hits Records
- ↑ Donald Trump promises to drill for oil, close southern border on first day as president
- ↑ The Oil And Gas Workers’ Association Endorses Trump For 2024 Vote
- ↑ U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids to be driven by international demand
- ↑ The West needs to prepare for ‘ugly’ Russian victory in Ukraine, which will reward China, leading US political scientist warns, South China Morning Post
- ↑ Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine, The New Yorker, March 2022
- ↑ Why the West Won’t Collapse with Stephen Kotkin
- ↑ C Raja Mohan writes: India at G7 — myth of multipolarity, Indian Express, 2023
- ↑ The New Atlas LIVE: Mark Sleboda on West Pivots to "Long War" in Ukraine, Industry to Decide Victor, Mark Sleboda at around the 2 hour and 6 minute point in the video
- ↑ Chinese Economic Collapse is Russia’s Downfall, Interview with Volodymyr Ludovskyy PhD, Professor of Economics, Indiana University, 9-12-2023
- ↑ Chinese Economic Collapse is Russia’s Downfall, Interview with Volodymyr Ludovskyy PhD, Professor of Economics, Indiana University, 9-12-2023
- ↑ Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’, Fortune magazine, 2022
- ↑ The American Bald Eagle
- ↑ The American Bald Eagle