United States Presidential Election, 2008

The White House, the official home and workplace of the President of the United States of America.

The 2008 United States Presidential Election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The primary season for both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party officially began on January 3, 2008 with the Iowa Caucuses and will end on June 3, 2008. The 2008 election cycle has seen a major shift to the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.

First election without incumbents since 1928

If eligible to, the President of the United States often runs for reelection. If the President does not run, the Vice President of the United States will often run to replace the President after he leaves office. 2008 may mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent President nor an incumbent Vice President running for his party's presidential nomination and thus not running in the Presidential election. In the United States presidential election of 1952, the race was between Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson. Vice President Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination. Current Vice President Dick Cheney has repeatedly stated he will not run for President. "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve," Cheney said on Fox News Sunday.

Battleground States

The United States has become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:

State, margin of victory, party that won the state in 2004

1. Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)
2. Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)
3. New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)
4. New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)
5. Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)
6. Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)
7. Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)
8. Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)
9. Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)

Republican Strategy

File:Republican candidates.jpg

The Republican candidates; Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, John McCain and Duncan Hunter

Strategists believe that the Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa but that the outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008.

The inescapable conclusion is that the Republican nominee must win Wisconsin and hold Iowa in order to win the general election.^{[Citation Needed]}

Declared Republican Party Candidates

John H. Cox

Former Governor Mike Huckabee, Arkansas

UN Ambassador Alan Keyes

Senator John McCain, Arizona

Representative Ron Paul, Texas 14th

Withdrawn Republican Party Candidates

Senator Sam Brownback, Kansas, withdrew October 19, 2007, citing a lack of funding. Brownback also had done poorly at key conservative milestones, such as the Value Voters Debate. He endorsed Senator John McCain of Arizona.

Former Governor Jim Gilmore, Virginia, withdrew July 14, 2007

Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, New York City He withdrew after a defeat in Florida, on which he had depended on heavily. He endorsed John McCain afterwards.

Representative Duncan Hunter, California 52nd, withdrew January 19, 2008 and endorsed Governor Mike Huckabee.

Representative Tom Tancredo, Colorado 6th, withdrew December 20, 2007. He endorsed fmr. Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts.

Former Senator Fred Thompson, Tennessee. He endorsed John McCain of Arizona.

Former Governor and HS Secretary Tommy Thompson, withdrew August 12, 2007. He endorsed fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York.

Potential Republican Candidates Who Declined to Run

• Former Senator George Allen, Virginia - endorsed Fred Thompson.
• Former Governor Jeb Bush, Florida
• Vice President Dick Cheney
• Former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Tennessee
• Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Georgia
• Senator Chuck Hagel, Nebraska
• Former Governor George Pataki, New York
• Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
• Governor Mark Sanford, South Carolina
• Former Senator Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania

Democratic Strategy

As usual, the best strategy for Democrats is a hot topic for debate among members of that party and independent pundits. Daily Kos can occasionally provide arguments on the strategy that should be pursued by Democrats, although most posts there are simply rants against the Republicans or Democrats deemed insufficiently liberal, which led Barack Obama to say in 2006 that he found the site "predictable." A majority of Democrats are confident that the cratering popularity of President George W. Bush and particularly Operation Iraqi Freedom puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008, to the extent it may even be their race to lose.

However, evaluating the race in Electoral College terms forces caution upon the Democrats. Between the United States presidential election, 2000 and the United States Presidential election, 2004, only three states budged from one party to the other: New Mexico (from Democratic to Republican), Iowa (from Democratic to Republican) and New Hampshire (from Republican to Democratic). The American people would seem to be not only strongly divided, but in the vast majority of states, faithful over a period of years to their chosen parties. Not even the September 11, 2001 attacks could persuade the people of New York to vote Republican, for example, and it is highly unlikely that the depopulation of New Orleans will be considered a good reason for the majority of voters in Louisiana to become Democrats. The phrase Second Coming Republicans (or Democrats) takes on new meaning in light of the relative lack of party-switching in response to these events.

Had all three of the above swing states voted Democratic in 2000, and everything else remained the same, Al Gore would have become President in 2001, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for. This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections -- particularly if the Republicans nominate Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or another candidate associated with one of those states.

Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person: John F. Kennedy, in the United States presidential election, 1960. If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year was Bill Richardson, who was cast somewhat against type as a member of the National Rifle Association and also has the distinction of being from one of the three swing states cited above. In strong second place would probably be John Edwards, but it needs to be said that the Democrat who can carry Edwards' home state of North Carolina in a Presidential election probably hasn't been born yet. Lyndon B. Johnson was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates will handily defeat a generic Republican candidate.

The move on masses of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on Bush Politics, chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical. The Republican candidate will need to force the Democrats into a vote on the current issues, highlighting experience and being in touch with the views of the average American on issues such as immigration, taxes, and National Security.

Declared Democratic Party Candidates

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Senator Hillary Clinton, New York

Former Senator Mike Gravel, Alaska

Senator Barack Obama, Illinois

Possible Democratic Party Candidates

VP Al Gore, Tennessee

Withdrawn Democratic Party candidates

Senator Joseph Biden, Delaware He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the Iowa Caucus.

Senator Chris Dodd, Connecticut He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the Iowa Caucus

Former Senator John Edwards, North Carolina. He withdrew after loosing in all of the early primary states.

Representative Dennis Kucinich, Ohio 10th

Governor Bill Richardson, New Mexico He withdrew after twin fourth-place finishes (in Iowa and New Hampshire) that showed his credentials could not compete with his rivals’ star power.

Former Governor Tom Vilsack, Iowa

Potential Democratic Candidates Who Declined to Run

• Senator Evan Bayh, Indiana - endorsed Hillary Clinton
• General Wesley Clark (Ret.) - endorsed Hillary Clinton
• Former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, South Dakota
• Former Governor and current DNC Chairman Howard Dean, Vermont
• Senator Russ Feingold, Wisconsin
• Senator John Kerry, Massachusetts - endorsed Barack Obama
• Rev. Al Sharpton
• Former Governor Mark Warner, Virginia

Third parties

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been frequently mentioned as a possible independent candidate for the 2008 presidential election and fueled that speculation when he left the Republican Party in June 2007. If he runs, he could put in over one billion dollars of his own money into the race.

Former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney, who was defeated for voting against the Iraq War and arrested on battery charges after striking a Capitol Hill police officer, is considering bid on the environmentalist Green Party ticket. [1]

Michael C. Smith is a Libertarian candidate.

Opinion polling

A big concern in the Hillary Clinton camp is whether or not she is electable. An Electability Poll in which the participants are asked in no certain order, a list of candidates from both parties, whether they would vote for candidate X or prefer someone else. Recent polling has revealed, of all major presidential candidates from both parties, Hillary Clinton is the only candidate to whom a majority of 52% would not vote for, or would prefer someone else.

The poll results show majorities would consider voting for all other major presidential candidates or possible candidates:

Electability Poll

Who would you vote for, the candidate or somebody else?
Candidate	Results
Rudy Giuliani	64% - 36%
Fred Thompson	62% - 38%
Michael Bloomberg	61% - 39%
Barak Obama	60% - 40%
John Edwards	59% - 41%
John McCain	58% - 42%
Joseph Biden	57% - 43%
Bill Richardson	57% - 43%
Mike Huckabee	56% - 44%
Mitt Romney	54% - 46%
Hillary Clinton	48% - 52%

The poll also revealed that Hillary Clinton is the only candidate to whom more voters view her unfavorably than favorably. 39% say they recognize Clinton favorably, while a larger number of 42% say they recognize her unfavorably. By contrast, every other candidate has a net-positive favorable rating:

Favorability Poll

Do you view the candidate favorably or unfavorably?
Candidate	Results
Rudy Giuliani	43% - 17%
Barack Obama	36% - 21%
John McCain	33% - 28%
John Edwards	32% - 28%
Fred Thompson	25% - 12%
Mitt Romney	24% - 20%
Joseph Biden	21% - 20%
Michael Bloomberg	20% - 18%
Bill Richardson	19% - 15%
Mike Huckabee	16% - 12%
Hillary Clinton	39% - 42%

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Primaries and Caucuses

Iowa Caucus: January 3, 2008

The first caucus in the 2008 presidential election cycle was the Iowa Caucus. The Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus was Barrack Obama, who managed to beat national frontrunner Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards. The official results were:

Dem. Iowa caucus results

candidates	percentage
Barrack Obama	38%
John Edwards	30%
Hillary Clinton	29%
Bill Richardson	2%
Joseph Biden	1%

Other candidates such as, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel did not gain a significant percentage. Because of the Iowa results, Barrack Obama was expected now to beat Hillary Clinton in the upcoming New Hampshire primary. Also, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd both withdrew from the race because of their low showings in the Iowa caucus.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee defeated Mitt Romney by an even closer margin. The results were:

GOP Iowa caucus results

Candidate	percentage
Mike Huckabee	34%
Mitt Romney	25%
Fred Thompson	13%
John McCain	13%
Ron Paul	10%
Rudy Giuliani	3%

Candidates such as Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes and John H. Cox didn't come out with a significant percentage. Romney's loss in Iowa set him back in the upcoming primary in New Hampshire. Huckabee's win however gave him surge in New Hampshire where he had before been very low in the polls. McCain's unexpected high showing in Iowa also gave him a little boost in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire Primary: January 8, 2008

The next milestone after the Iowa caucus was the New Hampshire primary. (Only the Republican Wyoming primary occurred on January 5, which was won by Romney.) On the Republican side, Mitt Romney's defeat in Iowa helped his most significant opponent, John McCain. Huckabee's victory in Iowa helped boost his campaign and gave him a higher showing than even he had expected. On the Democratic side, Obama's defeat of Clinton and Edwards led to the polls usually predicting a Obama victory in New Hampshire. The winner for the Repbulicans was John McCain and for the Democrats Hillary Clinton. The Democratic results were:

Dem. NH primary results

Candidate	percentage
Hillary Clinton	39%
Barrack Obama	36%
John Edwards	17%
Bill Richardson	5%
Dennis Kucinich	1%

Hillary Clinton's win was a setback for Obama and much-needed victory for Clinton. The polls reliability was most hurt with these results. (Mike Gravel didn't reach a significant percentage.) The Republican results were:

GOP NH primary results

Candidate	percentage
John McCain	37%
Mitt Romney	31%
Mike Huckabee	11%
Rudy Giuliani	9%
Ron Paul	8%
Fred Thompson	1%
Duncan Hunter	1%

These results put the very survival of Mitt Romney on the line and intensified the upcoming Michigan primary. John McCain's victory helped boost his campaign and he predicted to go on to victory in Michigan and South Carolina. Huckabee also did well and placed an unusual third place.

See Also

Articles about the 2008 Presidential Election from previous "Breaking News"