Difference between revisions of "Essay: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?"

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(China has peaked: property crisis which is 300% more leveraged than 2008 financial crisis, stock market losing 7 trillion in last 3 years, youth unemployment crisis. aging/declining population)
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As can be seen in the map above, the USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world and it is significantly higher than both China and Russia.<ref>[https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-productive-countries Most Productive Countries 2024]</ref>]]
 
As can be seen in the map above, the USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world and it is significantly higher than both China and Russia.<ref>[https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-productive-countries Most Productive Countries 2024]</ref>]]
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[[File:World's most innovative countries 2023.jpg|thumbnail|center|600px|right|Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the world’s most innovative economies in 2023, according to WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), as a group of middle-income economies have emerged over the past decade as the fastest climbers of the ranking.<ref>[https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2019-08-08/us-returns-to-top-3-in-global-innovation-ranking The U.S. Is (Again) Among the World's Top Innovators], U.S. News and World Report, 2023</ref><ref>[https://www.wipo.int/pressroom/en/articles/2023/article_0011.html#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20(3rd,80%20GII%202023%20innovation%20indicators. Global Innovation Index 2023: Switzerland, Sweden and the U.S. lead the Global Innovation Ranking; Innovation Robust but Startup Funding Increasingly Uncertain]</ref><ref>[https://www.statista.com/chart/18804/rankings-of-the-global-innovation-index/The World's Most Innovative Countries], Statista website, 2023</ref>]]
 
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[[File:Countries with the most diverse economies.jpg|thumbnail|1000px|center|The USA was among the most 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website.<ref>[https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-most-diverse-economies.html#:~:text=Most%20Diverse%20Economies-,Japan,the%20sophistication%20of%20its%20exports. Countries With The Most Diverse Economies]</ref>
 
[[File:Countries with the most diverse economies.jpg|thumbnail|1000px|center|The USA was among the most 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website.<ref>[https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-most-diverse-economies.html#:~:text=Most%20Diverse%20Economies-,Japan,the%20sophistication%20of%20its%20exports. Countries With The Most Diverse Economies]</ref>

Revision as of 13:54, March 28, 2024

As far as the field of international relations, the education website Unacademy.com defines a unipolar world thusly, "A unipolar world is when the majority of the world is dominated by a single state or nation's military and economic power, and social and cultural influence." A bipolar world is when two countries are global superpowers. And a multipolar world is when three or more countries have major influence over the world.

Previously, I wrote the related essays:

The essay below builds on the above essays.

The military defeats of the Soviet Union and United States in Afghanistan and the Vietnam War help demonstrate that we don't live in a unipolar world. It is hard to be an occupier in a country that doesn't want you to be there - especially in an age of fourth generation warfare (Fourth generation warfare is warfare where there is a blurring of the separation between war/politics and combatants/civilians. 4GW wars are more decentralized in terms of their command and control). See also: Essay: Western, liberal dominance over the world is over

A multipolar world refers to a system in the world which power is distributed among multiple/many states or blocs of states, rather than being concentrated in one (unipolar) or two (bipolar) dominant powers.[1]

The material below argues that the world is not presently multipolar.


"The United States and China are undoubtedly the two most powerful countries, but at least one more country must be roughly in their league for multipolarity to exist. This is where claims of multipolarity fall apart. Every country that could plausibly rank third—France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom—is in no way a rough peer of the United States or China." -The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, 2023

However, a number of leading geopolitical analysts are skeptical about China remaining a global power as it faces a number of serious intractable problems (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

I do agree with Donald Trump that America should not get into "endless wars" that do not serve America's vital interests.[2] I also agree with Trump's policy of not using the American military to "solve ancient conflicts in faraway lands".[3]
Chart of the growth of U.S. GNP from January 1947 to January 2023.

A great strength of the United States is its very consistent growth of its GNP over decades and its quick recovery the few times its GNP has gone down.[4]

In addition, research indicates that in the long-term, non-authoritarian countries are more likely to experience greater economic growth. See: Time Under Authoritarian Rule and Economic Growth, CORI Working Paper No. 2007-02

For more information on this topic, please see:

*Should You Be Bullish on America?

Why is America so rich?

*Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world

*Slow and steady growth over the long term via capitalism and the rule of law versus short-sighted authoritarian economic growth that is costly to the long term economy
Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption."[5]

According the Yahoo Finance: "According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country... The United States has one of the strongest economies in the world. The country hosts some of the largest companies in the world, which contributes to the high GDP per capita in the country."[6]

As can be seen in the map above, the USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world and it is significantly higher than both China and Russia.[7]
Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the world’s most innovative economies in 2023, according to WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), as a group of middle-income economies have emerged over the past decade as the fastest climbers of the ranking.[8][9][10]
The USA was among the most 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website.[11]

Read the articles: The Importance Of A Diversified Economy and Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification
In August of 2023, the USA was outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production.[12]. The best is yet to come![13][14]

The U.S. Energy Information System reported in 2023: "Strong continuing international demand for petroleum and other liquids will sustain U.S. production above 2022 levels through 2050, according to most of the cases we examined in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023). We project that the United States will continue to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply in these cases, as increased exports of finished products support U.S. production."[15]

For more information, please see: The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come
China is no longer set to eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.

That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.”

Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.[16]

See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power
Russian GNP 1991 to August 2023.

Estimates of Russian GNP 1991 to August 2023 measured in US fiat dollars; exchange rates between the dollar and the ruble ended in March 2022 when the ruble became a gold-backed currency.

Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:

*Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects, Wall Street Journal, August 2023

*The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023, August, 2023

*Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble, Barron's, August 2023

*5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining, Business Insider, 2023

Contents

China's major economic crisis are signs of major deflationary pressures

Map of China

According to Investopedia, "Deflation is not normally bad for an economy, except when it occurs in reaction to previous over-inflation."[17] Unfortunately for China, it has economic bubbles that are bursting in relation to its real estate and stock markets which is causing much economic hardship to many Chinese. Both of these markets had values that were highly inflated relative to their actual economic value. The Empower website notes that deflation "can lead consumers to spend less now, in part because they expect prices to continue to fall; it can push businesses to lower wages or lay off employees to maintain profit levels; and it makes existing debt more expensive for many borrowers.[18]

Presently, communist China is facing multiple crisis with the three major crisis below being signs of growing deflationary pressures on their economy:

Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?

The 4 reasons why so many self-declared international relations experts miserably failed concerning their multipolar fantasy is given in the essay below:

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas

Russia's economy is not highly diversified. It is too dependent on oil and gas. See also: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas. China's economy is having significant problems compared to its past. If China's economy gets worse (And there is some evidence that China's future economy will may worse this decade and beyond), that is going to hurt the Russian economy. See: Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power). See also: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines

"Even the act of diverting supplies to Asia entails a significant reduction in Russian companies’ profit margins. It costs a lot more to transport oil to Asian markets than to Europe, and there is not much spare transport capacity, which pushes up the cost of freight, reducing the profit made by Russian companies, whatever the amount at which the price is capped.

The price cap also enables Asian buyers to obtain big discounts on Russian oil. China and India may not officially be enforcing the cap, but it’s hard to imagine that companies from those countries will not use it to barter the price down. Indeed, this is already happening: some shipments to China due to be loaded onto tankers in January were sold at $5–6 cheaper per barrel than usual."[20]

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy.

Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas.[21]
Russian monthly oil revenues from January 2022 to July 2023 (International Energy Agency estimates)[22]

In 2023, Russian oil revenues are considerably down from 2022.[23]

Countries with diversified economies are more resilient and stable:

Booz & Company was a global strategy consulting team established in the United States in 1914. The firm was acquired by PwC on April 4, 2014.

Below is the executive summary of their report entitled Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification

“ The effects of the recent global economic crisis were allpervasive, and demonstrated that no economy is safe from destabilizing external events. Resource-dependent countries, with their narrow base of economic activity, are particularly vulnerable, but all countries may have vulnerabilities stemming from a lack of diversification in one or more economic dimensions, and they must be more vigilant in managing risks to their economies. Not only must a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) be balanced among sectors, but key elements of its economy must be varied, flexible, and readily applicable to a variety of economic opportunities, and areas of overconcentration must continually be identified and mitigated. Policymakers should work to achieve greater economic diversification, in order to reduce the impact of external events and foster more robust, resilient growth over the long term.

For resource-rich, developing economies, the immediate imperative is to diversify export-oriented sectors, but for the benefit of long-term sustainability, they must also look at the larger picture. A strong institutional and regulatory framework and workforce development initiatives are indispensable to the diversification effort; and proper management of human capital is key, especially in those countries experiencing a “demographic dividend.” Implementing such comprehensive diversification and risk management strategies won’t be easy, but the result—a diverse, stable, and growing economy—is worth the effort.[24]

”

Related articles:

Every year, 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.[25]

John Joseph Mearsheimer and U.S. relations with China and Russia

In his 2023 interview the South China Post, Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer stated about U.S. relations with China and Russia:

“ The Americans have a vested interest in pivoting full force to East Asia, to contain China. The Americans view China as a more serious threat than Russia. It’s very important to understand that China is a peer competitor to the United States. China is a rising great power and is a threat to the US in ways that Russia is not. So the Americans have a vested interest in not getting bogged down in a war in eastern Europe, more specifically in Ukraine.

Furthermore, they have a vested interest in doing everything they can to make sure that Russia and China are not close allies. What happens as a result of the Ukraine war is that it’s almost impossible for the US to fully pivot in Asia.[26]

”

In his March 2022 interview with The New Yorker, Mearsheimer indicated:

“ I’m talking about the raw-power potential of Russia—the amount of economic might it has. Military might is built on economic might. You need an economic foundation to build a really powerful military. To go out and conquer countries like Ukraine and the Baltic states and to re-create the former Soviet Union or re-create the former Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe would require a massive army, and that would require an economic foundation that contemporary Russia does not come close to having. There is no reason to fear that Russia is going to be a regional hegemony in Europe. Russia is not a serious threat to the United States. We do face a serious threat in the international system. We face a peer competitor. And that’s China. Our policy in Eastern Europe is undermining our ability to deal with the most dangerous threat that we face today.[27] ”

The historian Stephen Kotkin calls the notion of a multipolar world "nonsense"

Stephen Kotkin is an American historian, academic, and author. Kotkin's most prominent book project is his three-volume biography of Joseph Stalin.

Kotkin calls the notion of multipolar world "nonsense".[28]

C. Mojan Raja, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, on the myth of a multipolar world

C. Mojan Raja, the Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore wrote about the myth of the multipolar world: "the myth of multipolarity endures in Indian foreign policy discourse even as a bipolar world takes shape. While official Delhi is nimbly adapting to the realities of a bipolar world, the Indian foreign policy discourse continues to be tied down by multipolar confusion."[29]

International Relations Analyst Mark Sleboda on Brian Berlectic's pro-Russia New Atlas YouTube channel indicates that "We are not in a multipolar world."

"We are not in a multipolar world." - International Relations and Security Analyst Mark Sleboda on Brian Berlectic's pro-Russia New Atlas YouTube channel.[30]

2018 Pew Research survey: Most countries saw the United States as the world’s leading economic power rather than China. Most countries preferred the United States as the world’s leading economic power rather than China as well

Skepticism about China remaining a global power

See also: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

A number of leading geopolitical analysts are skeptical about China remaining a global power as is faces a number of serious intractable problems (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power). The American geopolitical analyst and author Peter Zeihan said in 2022, "I do not worry about China at all... I don't think that there is going to be a China for much longer."[31] On December 22, 2022, Foreign Affairs magazine noted in their article China’s Dangerous Decline "...China is teetering on the edge of a cliff. Ten years of Xi’s “reforms” — widely characterized in the West as successful power plays—have made the country frail and brittle, exacerbating its underlying problems while giving rise to new ones. ...a growing number of Western neoconservative analysts—including Michael Beckley, Jude Blanchette, Hal Brands, Robert Kaplan, Susan Shirk, and Fareed Zakaria—have begun to highlight this reality..."[32]

For more information, please see: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

The so-called multipolar world is often mere Chinese propaganda and public relations

See also: Essay: The so-called multipolar world is often mere Chinese propaganda and public relations

The flag of China.

China Daily is an English-language daily newspaper owned by the Central Propaganda Department of the Chinese Communist Party.

China, though China Daily, describes multipolarization as a "general trend in establishing a more just and balanced world order".[33]

However, China (which practices state atheism) has angered the USA/West and various other nations due to its unjust actions such as:

1. Its lack of advanced warning to other nations concerning the coronavirus pandemic which started in China and its allowing of Chinese air travelers to spread the virus to other nations (See: CCP global pandemic).

2. Its large amount of intellectual property theft.[34][35][36]

3. It's human rights violations (See: Atheism and human rights violations).

4. It dumping of state-subsidized products into other countries (some having inferior or hazardous qualities to them) and other unfair trade violations.

5. Its aggressive "wolf warrior" harassment of ships in the oceans outside its territorial waters (See: South China Sea Ruling: 5 Things to Know and The South China Sea is about to EXPLODE).

6. Its Belt and Road Initiative which often traps undeveloped countries in debt traps which they sometimes default on which kicks in a very long term leases so China gains property in other nations (See: 5 Countries That Have Fallen into China's Debt Trap).

According to British newspaper The Guardian:

“ In the face of increasingly strained relations with the West, Beijing is attempting to build its influence in the global south

It was a difficult summer for China’s leader, Xi Jinping. He was faced with natural disasters, economic uncertainty and a roster of disappearing ministers that had observers around the world speculating on their fate.

But one brief highlight among the gloom was the Brics summit in Johannesburg, in which six new countries were added to the bloc of emerging economies, more than doubling its size. With the addition of the new members, Brics will account for nearly half of the world’s population.

Xi had long called for the admission of new members to strengthen the bloc’s voice on the world stage and the expansion comes just as Beijing attempts to preserve and expand its international influence in the face of increasingly strained relations with the US.

China’s middle class are facing unprecedented challenges as the country’s economy falters. Have we reached peak China? How the booming middle class hit a brick wall Read more China’s domestic troubles are piling up, with slowing economic growth and high youth unemployment. The war in Ukraine has led to Beijing providing an economic lifeline to Russia which has strained relations with the west and made China increasingly focused on winning influence in the global south.

Burnishing the country’s international image is key to this goal; research published this year by Pew found that across all the rich countries it surveyed, a majority of people had an unfavourable opinion of China. In middle-income countries however, attitudes were rosier, with more than 70% of people in Kenya and Nigeria reporting positive views on China.

So although Beijing has not yet given up hope of preserving dialogue and trade with western partners, its diplomatic efforts are now split between maintaining those relations and making an ideological and economic appeal to those middle-income countries in the global south.[37]

”

Despite Russia engaging in war atrocities in Ukraine and presiding over a corrupt kleptocracy, Vladimir Putin praises China so-called proposals on constructing a multipolar world

Reuters reported: "China and Russia declared a "no limits" partnership in February 2022 when Putin visited Beijing just days before he sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, triggering the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two."[38]

Despite Russia engaging in war atrocities in Ukraine and presiding over a corrupt kleptocracy, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping's proposals on constructing a multipolar world, saying they all have practical significance (See: Xi's Proposals on Multipolar World Have Practical Significance: Putin).

Please see:

The BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters in Shanghai, China

According to Investopedia, BRICS refers to certain emerging market countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and more—that seek to establish deeper ties between member nations and cooperate on economic expansion, including trade. The countries act as a counterbalance to traditional Western influence.[39]

In terms of countries each countries GNP and the adding of the GNP of countries that are allies of the United States or lean to the United States as opposed to countries that are allies of China or lean towards China, the U.S. holds an advantage in terms of economical dominance and this state of affairs could continue for the foreseeable future (See: The US retains the economic advantage in its rivalry with China. America and its allies remain more united and economically powerful than Beijing’s group of allies, Financial Times, November 29, 2023).

The BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters is in Shanghai, China. See: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

Naval power is part of power projection which is the capacity of a country to deploy and sustain forces outside its territory.

Colonel Douglas MacGregor said about China in the video Why China's Navy is a JOKE: "China has huge problems just holding itself together. So I think we should set China aside and understand that."[40] See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters in Shanghai, China.

China's skyscraper boom is officially over.[41]

China has likely peaked and economic trouble is heading its way. See: China has likely peaked arguments

See also

User Conservative's international relations essays

The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.

See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

General

The United States

China

Russia

Vladimir Putin in a KGB uniform.

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

War in Ukraine

User: Conservative essays

External links

References

  1. ↑ What is the meaning of multipolar?
  2. ↑ Trump to West Point grads: 'We are ending the era of endless wars', Reuters, June 13, 2022
  3. ↑ Trump to West Point grads: 'We are ending the era of endless wars', Reuters, June 13, 2022
  4. ↑ Should You Be Bullish on America?
  5. ↑ Labor Productivity: What It Is, How to Calculate & Improve It, Investopedia
  6. ↑ 25 Most Productive Countries Per Capita, Yahoo Finance
  7. ↑ Most Productive Countries 2024
  8. ↑ The U.S. Is (Again) Among the World's Top Innovators, U.S. News and World Report, 2023
  9. ↑ Global Innovation Index 2023: Switzerland, Sweden and the U.S. lead the Global Innovation Ranking; Innovation Robust but Startup Funding Increasingly Uncertain
  10. ↑ World's Most Innovative Countries, Statista website, 2023
  11. ↑ Countries With The Most Diverse Economies
  12. ↑ US Oil Production Hits Records
  13. ↑ Donald Trump promises to drill for oil, close southern border on first day as president
  14. ↑ The Oil And Gas Workers’ Association Endorses Trump For 2024 Vote
  15. ↑ U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids to be driven by international demand
  16. ↑ China Slowdown Means It May Never Overtake US Economy, Forecast Shows, Bloomberg News, September 5, 2023
  17. ↑ Why Is Deflation Bad for the Economy?, Investopedia
  18. ↑ What is deflation?, Empower website
  19. ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
  20. ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
  21. ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
  22. ↑ Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High, Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023
  23. ↑ Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High, Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023
  24. ↑ Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification, Booz & Company, 2011
  25. ↑ Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
  26. ↑ The West needs to prepare for ‘ugly’ Russian victory in Ukraine, which will reward China, leading US political scientist warns, South China Morning Post
  27. ↑ Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine, The New Yorker, March 2022
  28. ↑ Why the West Won’t Collapse with Stephen Kotkin
  29. ↑ C Raja Mohan writes: India at G7 — myth of multipolarity, Indian Express, 2023
  30. ↑ The New Atlas LIVE: Mark Sleboda on West Pivots to "Long War" in Ukraine, Industry to Decide Victor, Mark Sleboda at around the 2 hour and 6 minute point in the video
  31. ↑ Energy at the End of the World | Part 4 | Demographics | Peter Zeihan
  32. ↑ China's dangerous decline, Foreign Affairs magazine, December 22, 2022
  33. ↑ Multipolarization gaining traction across globe, China Daily, 2024
  34. ↑ The Top Ten Issues for China’s Economy by Steve Dickinson on December 27, 2018, China Law Blog
  35. ↑ Chinese intellectual property theft: Time for show trials (but get our story straight) by Claude Barfield, August 27, 2018, AEIdeas
  36. ↑ [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-05/what-s-intellectual-property-and-does-china-steal-it-quicktake What Is Intellectual Property, and Does China Steal It? By Grant Clark, December 4, 2018, Bloomberg News
  37. ↑ Xi Jinping’s wants a ‘multipolar world’, as China accelerates its shift away from the west, The Guardian, 2023
  38. ↑ Putin to visit China to deepen 'no limits' partnership with Xi, Reuters, 2023
  39. ↑ BRICS: Acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, Investopedia
  40. ↑ Why China's Navy is a JOKE
  41. ↑ China's skyscraper boom is over
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