United States Presidential Election, 2008

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Battleground states
The 2008 United States Presidential Election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008.[1] The primary season for both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party officially began on January 3, 2008 with the Iowa Caucuses and will end on June 3, 2008.[2] The 2008 election cycle has seen a major shift to the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.[3] Senator John McCain of Arizona has won the Republican nomination, while Senator Barack Obama is the nominee for the Democratic Party.

First election without incumbents since 1928

If eligible to, the President of the United States often runs for reelection. If the President does not run, the Vice President of the United States will often run to replace the President after he leaves office. 2008 may mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent President nor an incumbent Vice President running for his party's presidential nomination and thus not running in the Presidential election. In the United States presidential election of 1952, the race was between Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson. Vice President Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination. Current Vice President Dick Cheney has repeatedly stated he will not run for President. "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve," Cheney said on Fox News Sunday.

Differences between 2008 and other elections

In 2008, CNN-YouTube held the first debate in which the questions asked of the nominees in each party came primarily from YouTube viewer submitted videos. The debates received high ratings, however, CNN was criticized for not picking questions that were 'tough' or pertinent enough. One such example was during the Democratic Debate, when CNN chose to ask a question from a snow man, talking about global warming. During the Republican debate, some claimed that many of the questions were from Democratic supporters just meant to embarrass the Republican candidates. For example, a question over whether or not homosexuals should serve in the U.S. military was asked by retired general and gay activist Keith Kerr, an adviser to Hillary Clinton's campaign.

The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet.

Battleground States

The United States has become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:

State, margin of victory, party that won the state in 2004

  1. Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)
  2. Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)
  3. New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)
  4. New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)
  5. Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)
  6. Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)
  7. Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)
  8. Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)
  9. Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)

Republican Strategy

Strategists believe that the Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa but that the outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008.

The inescapable conclusion is that the Republican nominee must win Wisconsin and hold Iowa in order to win the general election.[Citation Needed]

The Republican Party nominee is Senator John McCain, who received a majority of the delegates on the March 4th primaries.

Declared Republican Party Candidates

John H. Cox

UN Ambassador Alan Keyes

Senator John McCain, Arizona

Representative Ron Paul, Texas 14th

Withdrawn Republican Party Candidates

Senator Sam Brownback, Kansas, withdrew October 19, 2007, citing a lack of funding.[4] Brownback also had done poorly at key conservative milestones, such as the Value Voters Debate.[5] He endorsed Senator John McCain of Arizona.

Former Governor Jim Gilmore, Virginia, withdrew July 14, 2007

Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, New York City He withdrew after a defeat in Florida, on which he had depended on heavily. He endorsed John McCain afterwards.

Former Governor Mike Huckabee, Arkansas. He withdrew from the race once McCain recieved the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination. He also promised to support McCain as the nominee, thus giving his endorsement to him.

Representative Duncan Hunter, California 52nd, withdrew January 19, 2008 and endorsed Governor Mike Huckabee.

Former Governor Mitt Romney, Massachusetts, suspended his campaign after poor showings on Super Tuesday and later endorsed John McCain.

Representative Tom Tancredo, Colorado 6th, withdrew December 20, 2007. He endorsed fmr. Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts.

Former Senator Fred Thompson, Tennessee. He endorsed John McCain of Arizona.

Former Governor and HS Secretary Tommy Thompson, withdrew August 12, 2007. He endorsed fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York.

Potential Republican Candidates Who Declined to Run

Potential Republican Vice-Presidential Candidates

Democratic Strategy

As usual, the best strategy for Democrats is a hot topic for debate among members of that party and independent pundits. Daily Kos can occasionally provide arguments on the strategy that should be pursued by Democrats, although most posts there are simply rants against the Republicans or Democrats deemed insufficiently liberal, which led Barack Obama to say in 2006 that he found the site "predictable." A majority of Democrats are confident that the cratering popularity of President George W. Bush and particularly Operation Iraqi Freedom puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008, to the extent it may even be their race to lose.

However, evaluating the race in Electoral College terms forces caution upon the Democrats. Between the United States presidential election, 2000 and the United States Presidential election, 2004, only three states budged from one party to the other: New Mexico (from Democratic to Republican), Iowa (from Democratic to Republican) and New Hampshire (from Republican to Democratic). The American people would seem to be not only strongly divided, but in the vast majority of states, faithful over a period of years to their chosen parties. Not even the September 11, 2001 attacks could persuade the people of New York to vote Republican, for example, and it is highly unlikely that the depopulation of New Orleans will be considered a good reason for the majority of voters in Louisiana to become Democrats. The phrase Second Coming Republicans (or Democrats) takes on new meaning in light of the relative lack of party-switching in response to these events.

Had all three of the above swing states voted Democratic in 2000, and everything else remained the same, Al Gore would have become President in 2001, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for. This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections.

Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person: John F. Kennedy, in the United States presidential election, 1960. If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year was Bill Richardson, who was cast somewhat against type as a member of the National Rifle Association and also has the distinction of being from one of the three swing states cited above. In strong second place would probably be John Edwards, but it has been difficult for Democrats to carry the state of North Carolina in a Presidential election. Lyndon B. Johnson was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates will handily defeat a generic Republican candidate.

The move on masses of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on Bush Politics, chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical.

Declared Democratic Party Candidates

Senator Barack Obama, Illinois

Withdrawn Democratic Party candidates

Senator Joseph Biden, Delaware[6] He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the Iowa Caucus.

Senator Hillary Clinton, New York Suspended her campaign after Obama reached the number of needed delegates. She endorsed him shortly afterwards.

Senator Chris Dodd, Connecticut[7] He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the Iowa Caucus and later endorsed Senator Barack Obama.

Former Senator John Edwards, North Carolina. He withdrew after losing in all of the early primary states. He later endorsed Senator Obama after Obama won the North Carolina primary.

Former Senator Mike Gravel, Alaska. He withdrew to seek the Libertarian party nomination (which he lost to Bob Barr.) He also endorsed Green Party Candidate, Jesse Johnson. [8]

Representative Dennis Kucinich, Ohio 10th[9] He withdrew to keep his seat in the House of Representatives.

Governor Bill Richardson, New Mexico[10] He withdrew after twin fourth-place finishes (in Iowa and New Hampshire) that showed his credentials could not compete with his rivals’ star power. He later endorsed Senator Obama.

Former Governor Tom Vilsack, Iowa. He endorsed Hillary Clinton of New York

Potential Democratic Candidates Who Declined to Run

Potential Democratic Vice-Presidential Candidates

  • Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana
  • Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
  • General Wesley Clark (Ret.)
  • Senator Hillary Clinton of New York
  • Former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota
  • Former Senator and 2004 Vice-Presidential nominee John Edwards of North Carolina
  • Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania
  • Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
  • Senator Barack Obama of Illinois
  • Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio
  • Former Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa
  • Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia
  • Former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia
  • Senator Jim Webb of Virginia

Third parties and Independents

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been frequently mentioned as a possible independent candidate for the 2008 presidential election and fueled that speculation when he left the Republican Party in June 2007. However, he declared in a February 28, 2008, op-ed article in The New York Times, "I am not—and will not be—a candidate for president," but added that "[i]f a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach—and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy—I’ll join others in helping that candidate win the White House."[11]

Former Representative Cynthia McKinney, who was defeated after voting against the Iraq War and arrested on battery charges after striking a Capitol Hill police officer, is considering bid on the environmentalist Green Party ticket.[12] The Green Party will nominate its candidate for president at its convention in July 2008.[13]

The Libertarian Party selected former Representative Bob Barr of Georgia as its 2008 presidential candidate on May 25, 2008.[14] Former Democratic canididate Mike Gravel sought the Libertarian nomination but lost to Barr.[15]

Ralph Nader announced his independent candidacy for president on February 24, 2008, to focus on "stem[ming] corporate crime and Pentagon waste and promot[ing] labor rights", issues he feels are ignored by the main parties.[16] His running mate is former President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Matt Gonzalez.[17]

The Constitution Party held its convention in Kansas City, Kansas, on April 24 through April 27. The party nominated Pastor Chuck Baldwin over former U.N. Ambassador and Republican presidential candidate Alan Keyes.[18]

Opinion polling

A big concern in the Hillary Clinton camp is whether or not she is electable. An Electability Poll in which the participants are asked in no certain order, a list of candidates from both parties, whether they would vote for candidate X or prefer someone else. Recent polling has revealed, of all major presidential candidates from both parties, Hillary Clinton is the only candidate to whom a majority of 52% would not vote for, or would prefer someone else. [19]

The poll results show majorities would consider voting for all other major presidential candidates or possible candidates:

Electability Poll
Who would you vote for, the
candidate or somebody else?
Candidate Results
Rudy Giuliani 64% - 36%
Fred Thompson 62% - 38%
Michael Bloomberg 61% - 39%
Barak Obama 60% - 40%
John Edwards 59% - 41%
John McCain 58% - 42%
Joseph Biden 57% - 43%
Bill Richardson 57% - 43%
Mike Huckabee 56% - 44%
Mitt Romney 54% - 46%
Hillary Clinton 48% - 52%

The poll also revealed that Hillary Clinton is the only candidate to whom more voters view her unfavorably than favorably. 39% say they recognize Clinton favorably, while a larger number of 42% say they recognize her unfavorably. By contrast, every other candidate has a net-positive favorable rating:

Favorability Poll
Do you view the candidate
favorably or unfavorably?
Candidate Results
Rudy Giuliani 43% - 17%
Barack Obama 36% - 21%
John McCain 33% - 28%
John Edwards 32% - 28%
Fred Thompson 25% - 12%
Mitt Romney 24% - 20%
Joseph Biden 21% - 20%
Michael Bloomberg 20% - 18%
Bill Richardson 19% - 15%
Mike Huckabee 16% - 12%
Hillary Clinton 39% - 42%

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Primaries and Caucuses

Iowa Caucus: January 3, 2008

The first caucus in the 2008 presidential election cycle was the Iowa Caucus. The Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus was Barack Obama, who managed to beat national frontrunner Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards. The official results were:

Dem. Iowa caucus results
candidates percentage
Barack Obama 38%
John Edwards 30%
Hillary Clinton 29%
Bill Richardson 2%
Joseph Biden 1%

Other candidates such as, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel did not gain a significant percentage. Because of the Iowa results, Barack Obama was expected now to beat Hillary Clinton in the upcoming New Hampshire primary. Also, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd both withdrew from the race because of their low showings in the Iowa caucus.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee defeated Mitt Romney by an even closer margin. The results were:

GOP Iowa caucus results
Candidate percentage
Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 10%
Rudy Giuliani 3%

Candidates such as Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes and John H. Cox didn't come out with a significant percentage. Romney's loss in Iowa set him back in the upcoming primary in New Hampshire. Huckabee's win however gave him surge in New Hampshire where he had before been very low in the polls. McCain's unexpected high showing in Iowa also gave him a little boost in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire Primary: January 8, 2008

The next milestone after the Iowa caucus was the New Hampshire primary. (Only the Republican Wyoming primary occurred on January 5, which was won by Romney.) On the Republican side, Mitt Romney's defeat in Iowa helped his most significant opponent, John McCain. Huckabee's victory in Iowa helped boost his campaign and gave him a higher showing than even he had expected. On the Democratic side, Obama's defeat of Clinton and Edwards led to the polls usually predicting a Obama victory in New Hampshire. The winner for the Repbulicans was John McCain and for the Democrats Hillary Clinton. The Democratic results were:

Dem. NH primary results
Candidate percentage
Hillary Clinton 39%
Barack Obama 36%
John Edwards 17%
Bill Richardson 5%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

Hillary Clinton's win was a setback for Obama and much-needed victory for Clinton. The polls reliability was most hurt with these results. (Mike Gravel didn't reach a significant percentage.) The Republican results were:

GOP NH primary results
Candidate percentage
John McCain 37%
Mitt Romney 31%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Rudy Giuliani 9%
Ron Paul 8%
Fred Thompson 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%

These results put the very survival of Mitt Romney on the line and intensified the upcoming Michigan primary. John McCain's victory helped boost his campaign and he predicted to go on to victory in Michigan and South Carolina. Huckabee also did well and placed an unusual third place.

Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina

Romney's second-place defeat in Iowa and New Hampshire, caused his campaign to focus all it's attention on the Michigan Primary on January 15th. He managed to defeat his rivals, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Since the Democrats had taken Michigan's delegates away, most of the candidates didn't even bother to get on the ballot. Clinton won easily, because she was one of the only major candidates to be even on the ballot. Romney and the Democrats turned their attention to the Nevada caucus, while Republicans John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson looked to the South Carolina primary. (The Republicans had the South Carolina primary on the same day as the Nevada caucus, January 19th.) The Democratic results were:

Dem. Nevada caucus results
Candidate Percentage
Hillary Clinton 51%
Barack Obama 45%
John Edwards 4%

Hillary Clinton probably won because of her strong position on the Yukka Mountain issue, which was critical to Democratic caucus goers. Romney easily won the Republican Nevada caucus, probably because it is close to Utah, a traditionally Mormon state. Duncan Hunter had been hoping for a strong finish in Nevada and decided to leave the race, because of his poor showings.

GOP SC caucus results
Candidate percentage
John McCain 33%
Mike Huckabee 30%
Fred Thompson 16%
Mitt Romney 15%
Ron Paul 4%
Rudy Giuliani 2%

McCain’s victory in South Carolina propelled him as the national front-runner. Mike Huckabee’s 2nd place defeat forced him to cut back in expenses due to lack of funds. Fred Thompson’s defeat was irreparable and he withdrew from the race shortly afterwards

The Democrats prepared for the primary in South Carolina on January 26th. Obama won the primary by a huge margin over Clinton and Edwards. This was a severe loss for Edwards since he had been born in South Carolina and was Senator for North Carolina. Obama probably won because of the state’s huge black population.

Florida Primary: January 29, 2008

Because Florida moved it's date to January 29th the Democratic party stripped Florida of it's delegates and the candidates agreed not to campaign there. The Democratic results were:

Dem. Florida primary results
candidates percentage
Hillary Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 33%
John Edwards 14%
Joe Biden 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

Florida was the last early primary state and after his loss, John Edwards suspended his campaign. (Although they had withdrawn, candidates Biden, Richardson and Kucinich still received votes. Mike Gravel didn't receive a percentage.) The Republicans concentrated on Florida more than the Democrats, because the Republican party chose to remove only half of their delegates. Candidate Rudy Giuliani was so concentrated on Florida, he chose to ignore all of the other primaries before that. John McCain and Mitt Romney both gained momentum and began to lead Giuliani in the polls. The Republican results were:

GOP Florida primary results
candidates percentage
John McCain 36%
Mitt Romney 31%
Rudy Giuliani 15%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Ron Paul 3%
Fred Thompson 1%

The results caused Giuliani to exit the race the next day and endorse the primary winner, John McCain. (Although Fred Thompson had withdrawn he got some support anyway.)

Super Tuesday: February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday held the largest number of presidential primary's and caucuses. Twenty-four states were held for one or both parties were held on this date.

  • GOP Super Tuesday primary results
  • John McCain, 9 states won, (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma). Number of delegates won: 602.
  • Mitt Romney, 7 states won, (Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah). Number of delegates won: 201.
  • Mike Huckabee, 5 states won, (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia). Number of delegates won: 152.
  • Ron Paul, 0 states won. Number of delegates won: 10

February 9th Primaries

The next major primary after Super Tuesday was on February 9, 2008. The Democrats held contests in Louisiana, Nebraska & Washington. The Republicans held three other contests in Kansas, Louisiana & Washington. Governor Huckabee won Kansas and Louisiana, but lost to McCain in Washington by a close margin. Barrack Obama won all three Democratic contests, and also won the Maine caucus, the next day on February 10th.

Potomac Primary: February 12, 2008

The next primary-date was the Potomac primary on February 12. It is called that because the three states; District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia, which all were near the Potomac River, had their primary date on the same date. John McCain won all three Republican contests, while Barrack Obama won all of the Democratic contests.

Super Tuesday 2: March 4, 2008

After Obama won his 11th consecutive victory on the February 19th primaries in Wisconsin and Hawaii, Clinton was desperate to win the March 4th primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island & Vermont. Huckabee also needed more victories to prevent McCain from reaching the needed 1,191 delegates for the Republican nomination.

Clinton won all of the states except for Vermont, which Obama won. McCain won all of the primaries, causing Governor Huckabee to leave the race that evening.

Pennsylvania Primary

After Clinton's victories on Super Tuesday 2, both Democrats looked ahead to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd. Obama lost some popularity after his Pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, said "God damn America!" in the pulpit. Obama also commented about people bitterly clinging to guns and religion because they were upset with Washington policies. Clinton beat Obama by 9 percentage points, continuing the long drawn-out contest between the two. John McCain was able to easily win the primary as the Republican party's presumptive nominee.

See Also

Articles about the 2008 Presidential Election from previous "Breaking News"

References

  1. ↑ http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/
  2. ↑ http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/
  3. ↑ http://www.miamiherald.com/515/story/43160.html
  4. ↑ http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ifK7vLWH4aU4urzB-4bSX1u4QF9QD8SC0EI00
  5. ↑ http://www.valuesvoterdebate.com/pollresults.cfm, Brownback lost sizably to Mike Huckabee.
  6. ↑ http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/04/chris-dodd-abandons-presidential-campaign-after-poor-showing-in-iowa/
  7. ↑ http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/04/chris-dodd-abandons-presidential-campaign-after-poor-showing-in-iowa/
  8. ↑ http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/12/democratic-candidate-gravel-endorses-green-party-presidential-hopeful/
  9. ↑ http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/24/kucinich-drops-presidential-bid/
  10. ↑ AP: Bill Richardson Drops Out of Democratic Presidential Race, Associated Press, Fox News Channel, January 9, 2008
  11. ↑ "I'm Not Running for President, but..."
  12. ↑ http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,62891,00.html
  13. ↑ http://www.gp.org/2008-elections/index.shtml
  14. ↑ http://www.lpconvention.org/
  15. ↑ http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/05/25/libertarians-pick-barr-as-presidential-nominee/
  16. ↑ http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Feb24/0,4670,APNader,00.html
  17. ↑ http://www.votenader.org/about/matt-gonzalez/
  18. ↑ http://www.constitutionparty.com/news.php?aid=751
  19. ↑ Poll: Is Hillary Electable?, by Mark Murray, NBC News, June 28, 2007. Retrieved from MSNBC.com June 29, 2007.


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2008 Presidential Candidates
Barr • Clinton • McCain • Nader • Obama • Thompson • Biden • Gravel • Paul • Giuliani • Keyes • Huckabee • Romney • McKinney
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