2010 Midterm Elections

The United States Capitol in Washington, D. C.

In the 2010 Midterm Elections, the nation will elect the 112th Congress, including all members of the House and one third of the Senate, together with a majority of governorships and many state and local offices.

After the Democratic Party successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the Presidential Election of 2008, the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back. Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting the two independents), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.

Fund raising

Although Democratic fund raising is significantly lower than the 2007-2008 election cycle , they have still gotten off to a faster start than Republicans. By January 2010 Democratic candidates and party committees had raised a total of $396.5 million for the midterms, with $50 million on hand and $10 million debts. Republicans had raised just $204.7 million, with about $30 million on hand and about $6 million in debts. For the House elections Democratic candidates had raised $151 million and Republicans $109 million. In the Senate elections Democratic candidates had raised $98 million and Republicans $67 million.

2009 elections

In the Nov. 3, 2009, off-year elections, defeat was the fate of Democrats in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia. Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an independent, spent his way to a third term in New York City while Republican Bob McDonnell won in a landslide for governor of Virginia; in New Jersey Republican Christopher Christie ousted the incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine despite his millions and Obama's campaigning.

Conservatives scored a major internal party victory in Oct. 2009 by forcing the Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava out of a House race in New York's 23rd district, for being too liberal. The Conservative Party candidate was defeated by the Democrat, however, opening up recriminations between GOP officials and conservatives on why the district was lost for the first time in a century. Already, conservative activists have zeroed in on the 2010 race for Florida's open Senate seat, in which the Republican party Senate campaign committee has endorsed moderate Gov. Charlie Crist but the more conservative Marco Rubio is mounting a strong challenge. "If I were Charlie Crist in Florida, what's happening in New York 23 would make me extremely nervous," GOP strategist Todd Harris said. "A lot of the establishment Republicans underestimated the grass-roots anger across the country about spending and the expansion of the federal government. The anger is boiling over now, but a lot of the seeds of discontent were planted over the last five to six years."

Many Democrats were counting on riding Obama's coattails--but since the summer of 2009 those have become liabilities.

Ad campaigns

In late 2009 national money was being poured into nine districts, where Democrats who voted for their party's health care reform may be in trouble. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, representing business, has spent at least $1.6 million in November. Liberals shoot back against the Chamber and 60 Plus Association with ads targeting 12 Democrats and one Republican who supported health reform. Three liberal groups, Americans United for Change and the labor unions AFSCME and SEIU are teaming up for $1.75 million worth of counter-messaging on broadcast and cable TV in the districts of Reps. Berry, Cao, Connolly, Donnelly, Ellsworth, Hill, Hodes, Michaud, Murphy, Perriello, Pomeroy, Snyder and Titus.

Forecasts

In recent years, as the chart shows, the incumbent party loses an average of 16 House seats. The GOP needs 40 seats to win back the House.

Democrats must defend about 60 marginal House seats in 2010, as opposed to about 40 for Republicans. At high risk are 27 Democratic seats and just 13 Republican seats that may see a party switch.

Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge. From April to August, Obama lost 10 points across the board--suffering losses in every group except blacks, who remain loyal to him. The popularity of Congress remains low. Starting in January 2010 the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats was at a seven year low. The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.

"No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010," concluded Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman, who predicts the Democrats will lose 20 seats in the House, but retain control. Wasserman concludes that a major shift has been underway among "angry white seniors" (over age 60), who strongly dislike the Obama health care proposals because they fear they will lose benefits they now have.

Analyst Stuart Rothenberg is now reporting, "Growing public concern about spending, taxes and the size of government has started to shift the national landscape away from the Democrats to a more neutral position, and quite possibly toward the GOP." Furthermore, an advantage for Republicans is that currently 48 House Democrats, 8 more than the size of their majority, come from districts that voted for both George W. Bush and John McCain.

Notable House Races

See: 2010 House Elections

Democratic gains by region in 2006 and 2008

Senate

CQ predictions, Sept. 2009

The top Senate races are:

• 1 Connecticut (Incumbent=Dem, running for reelection)
• 2 New Hampshire Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 3 Missouri Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 4 Kentucky Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 5 Pennsylvania (incumbent=Dem running for reelection)
• 6 Ohio Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 7 Colorado (incumbent=Dem, running for reelection)
• 8 Illinois Open (incumbent = Dem)
• 9 Louisiana (incumbent=Rep, running for reelection)
• 10 Delaware Open (incumbent = Dem)

Texas Senator John Cornyn, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee has quietly put Senate Republicans in position to benefit as the national political environment goes negative on Democrats. Cornyn has recruited serious candidates in Democratic-held seats in Delaware, Illinois, Colorado and Connecticut, and still maybe North Dakota and New York. With seven open seats to defend, Cornyn understands that he must play offense in a few states if he hopes to position the party to make major gains in the 2012 and 2014 cycles -- both of which, by the numbers, are far more favorable for Republicans.

Special Elections

• Massachusetts

Liberal icon Ted Kennedy, the third longest-serving Senator in U.S. history, died in August 2009, marking the end of an era. During the 2004 Presidential Election the Democratic super-majority in the state legislator blocked the right of Republican Governor Mitt Romney to appoint an interim senator had John Kerry been elected President. After changing the law to allow Governor Deval Patrick, a Democrat, the right to appoint a temporary replacement for Kennedy, he choose former Democratic National Committee chairman Paul Kirk. He will not seek a full term of his own, and a special election will be held on January 19, 2010.

State Attorney General Martha Coakley won the Democratic primary, defeating businessman Alan Khazei, Representative Mike Capuano, and Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca. Charismatic State Senator Scott Brown is the Republican nominee..

a last minute appeal

It was a safe Democratic seat until January, when Democrats reeled in shock as Coakley lost her 30 point lead and trails by 5-10 points in the closing hours. Coakley is an ineffective machine-style insider candidate who has been unable to reach independents. Brown is a much better campaigner, and leads 2-1 among independents, who will elect him if they turn out and vote. Brown's main theme is that he will be the 41st senator and will block the Obama health care plan--which Massachusetts does not need, he explains, because it has its own plan now in operation. Coakley responds by attacking bankers and bringing in big guns like Bill Clinton, John Kerry and Barack Obama. They appeal to regular Democrats and alienate the equally numerous independents, who prefer Brown by more than 2-1.

A defeat for Coakley, coming on the heels of the Democrats' loss of Virginia and New Jersey in Nov. 2009, would be a major blow to the liberal cause and would reinvigorate the Republican party nationally.

• Texas

Although Senior Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison had announced she will resign from the Senate in fall 2009 to pursue a campaign for Governor, she has since indicated that she will resign after the March primary, regardless of whether she wins. As a result, Republican Governor Rick Perry must appoint a replacement, and under Texas law, a special election will be held. The only announced Republican candidate is Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams. Other possible GOP candidates include 6th district Representative Joe Barton, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, and State Senator Florence Shapiro. Former State Comptroller John Sharp and Houston Mayor Bill White have announced they will seek the Democrat nomination. Texas is considered a Republican stronghold. In the 2008 Presidential Election, John McCain won its 34 electoral votes by twelve percentage-points.

Open Seats

• Connecticut

30-year Senate veteran Chris Dodd was ranked the most vulnerable Senator in the 2010 election cycle by National Journal. He has announced he will not seek a sixth term.

Dodd’s approval ratings had plummeted after his failed presidential campaign in 2008, his controversial mortgage deal from Countrywide, and revelations about the $165 million bonuses for AIG executives that he attached in an amendment to the economic stimulus package, despite receiving federal bailout money. Former Congressman Rob Simmons is seeking the Republican nomination and was leading Dodd in public opinion polls. Financial services executive Peter Schiff is also running.

• Delaware

Joe Biden was simultaneously elected to a seventh term in the Senate and Vice President at the same time. Democrat Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointed a "caretaker" Senator, Ted Kaufman. If state Attorney General Beau Biden runs in the 2010 special election he would be the favorite in the Democratic nomination, but not the general election in that moderate Republican nine-term Congressman Michael Castle, former governor and lieutenant governor, has entered the race. Polls show Castle leads Biden by a conformable margin. Republican political analyst Christine O'Donnell (who ran against Biden in 2008 and received 35% of the vote) has also announced her candidacy. Polls shows she trails Biden by 9-percentage points.

• Florida

Republican Governor Charlie Crist, who once enjoyed high approval ratings, appointed George LeMieux upon the resignation of Senator Mel Martinez. LeMieux is holding the seat temporarily for Governor Crist who will run for the Senate in 2010. He is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, but is being challenged by conservative Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio. Crist alienated conservatives when he campaigned with President Obama in support for the $787 billion economic stimulus package, which was entirely opposed by the Florida Republican federal delegation. Democrats have recruited lesser known candidates, including 17th district Representative Kendrick Meek and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns. Public Opinion Shows show both Crist and Rubio would lead their Democrat opponents.

• Illinois

Democrat Senator Roland Burris has been plagued by controversies. Burris was appointed to replace Barack Obama by Governor Rod Blagojevich, who had been arrested on a variety of federal corruption charges (including for trying to "sell" Obama's Senate seat). Burris was then accused of committing perjury after he admitted to not testifying truthfully at a committee investigating Governor Blagojevich. Burris has announced he will not seek a full term in 2010.

Republicans see this as a pickup opportunity. National Journal ranked Illinois the second most likely seat to change party. Moderate-GOP Congressman Mark Kirk, representing a Democratic-leaning district that covers suburban Chicago, has announced his candidacy and is expected to easily win the Republican nomination. Democratic candidates include Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson, Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, and attorney Jacob Meister.

• Kansas

Incumbent Republican Sam Brownback is honoring his campaign pledge to serve only two terms. One of the most conservative states in the country, no prominent Democrats have announced their candidacy. The Cook Political Report lists this race as "solid Republican." The competitive race will be the Republican primary between 1st district Congressman Jerry Moran and 4th district Congressman Todd Tiahrt. Public Opinion Polls show Moran and Tiahrt in a dead heat. Moran's voting record is moderate, he supported an increase in the minimum wage and voted to expand the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), while Tiahrt is strongly conservative. Senator John McCain has endorsed Jerry Moran.

• Kentucky

Republicans had a victory when unpopular incumbent Senator Jim Bunning announced he would not seek a third term. Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson is seeking the Republican nomination, however is being challenged by Libertarian Republican Rand Paul, an eye surgeon who is the son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo (who lost to Bunning in 2004) and state Attorney General Jack Conway are running. Public Opinion Polls show both Grayson and Paul leading Conway and Mongiardo.

• Missouri

Incumbent Republican Senator Kit Bond has announced he will not seek fifth term. Former House Majority Whip Roy Blunt has announced his candidacy. Blunt benefits from raising a strong $1.44 million in the second quarter and as of now has no serious primary challenger. Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is seeking the Democratic nomination. A recent Rasmussen poll has Blunt and Carnahan tied at 46%.

• New Hampshire

Senior Republican Senator Judd Gregg, after withdrawing from a position in the Obama administration, announced he will not seek a fourth term. 2nd district Congressman Paul Hodes is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Republicans are behind former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. Public opinion polls show Ayotte ahead by 2-9 points.

• North Dakota

Byron Dorgan, a three-term Democrat Senator from North Dakota, has announced he will not seek reelection. Dorgan's announcement represents an opportunity for Republicans, popular Governor John Hoeven has announced his candidacy. A Rasmussen reports poll showed Hoeven leading Dorgan by 22-points.

• Ohio

Moderate Republican George Voinovich has announced he will not seek a third term. The Democratic field includes Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher has received the endorsement of Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Meanwhile, Republicans have rallied behind Rob Portman, former Congressman and Director of the Office of Management and Budget. The race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the election cycle. A September 2009 Rasmussen poll has Portman leading Fisher and Brunner by a narrow margin.

Democratic incumbents

• Arkansas

Moderate Democrat Blanche Lincoln may be one of Republicans top targets in 2010. In the 2008 Presidential Election, Arkansas was one of the few states where John McCain exceeded George W. Bush’s margin, despite the national trend favoring Democrats. In an attempt to appeal to her conservative constituents Lincoln voted against the Employee Free Choice Act (card check) and has stated opposition to the public option in health care. Lincoln may face a primary challenger from state Senate president pro tempore Bob Johnson, who say's he's openly considering running. Announced Republican candidates include State Senator and former state GOP chair Gilbert Baker (considered the front-runner for the nomination) Arkansas Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren, Retired army colonel Conrad Reynolds, and Tom Cox, Founder of the Arkansas Tea Party. A January 2010 Rasmussen poll showed every Republican challenger leading Blanche Lincoln. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has withheld from endorsing a candidate.

• California

Although California is a solidly Democratic state, conservatives see outspoken liberal Senator Barbara Boxer as vulnerable. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who’s term-limited in 2010, has announced he will not run. State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is campaigning for the GOP-nomination, while former Hewlett-Packard Company President Carly Fiorina is also running. A January 2010 Rasmussen poll showed Boxer leading Fiorina by a narrow 3-points. Fiorina is supported by the Republican establishment, receiving the endorsements of Senators Tom Coburn, Susan Collins, Lindsey Graham, Jon Kyl, John McCain, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, and Olympia Snowe. Senator Jim DeMint (R-South Carolina) has endorsed DeVore.

• Colorado

Appointed Senator Michael Bennet is expected to face a competitive reelection in 2010. Former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives Andrew Romanoff will challenge Bennet for the Democratic nomination, while former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton is seeking the Republican nomination. A Rasmussen Reports poll showed Norton would lead Bennet by 9-percentage points.

• Hawaii

Democrat Daniel Inouye is expected to easily win reelection. Although Republicans could win the seat if term-limited Governor Linda Lingle runs.

• Indiana

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn has said that two-term Senator Evan Bayh is not a priority target for 2010. Although Indiana is a historically Republican state, Bayh has raised $10,896,323 for his reelection campaign. Former six-term Congressman John Hostettler is seeking the Republican nomination. Other announced candidates include State Senator Marlin Stutzman and businessman Don Bates Jr.

• Maryland

Entrenched incumbent Barbara Mikulski is expected to easily win reelection. Republicans will more likely be focused on defeating unpopular Governor Martin O’Malley.

• Nevada

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is facing a tough reelection in 2010. The "Cook Political Report" in September 2009 rates the contest as "Toss Up". His status weakened in summer 2009, as discontent with President Obama and the Democrats' health plan mounted, and as the Recession of 2008 continues to batter Las Vegas and the entire Nevada economy, with no relief in sight from the stimulus bill Reid pushed through the Senate. Reid's inability to improve his standing in the polls, coupled with the deteriorating political environment for Democrats nationally, are clear indications that his political problems are deep and will be difficult (though not impossible) to fix, says Cook. Rasmussen Reports polling in Sept. 2009 show Sue Lowden beating Reid 50% to 40%. Lowden is chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and the preferred candidate of the Republican party establishment. Danny Tarkanian beats Reid 50% to 43%. Tarkanian is a former basketball player for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and the son of a legendary college basketball coach.

In December 2009, The Las Vegas Review-Journal, Nevada's largest newspaper, released a poll they commissioned showing Lowden beating Reid in a head-to-head match-up by 10 points.

• New York

Senior Senator Charles Schumer may be the safest incumbent of 2010 and is expected to face no top-tier challenger. Republicans are more likely to target New York’s junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who is running in a special election.

• New York-Special Election

Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed by Governor David Patterson to replace Hillary Clinton after much confusion on his part. Patterson mishandled the proposed appointment of Caroline Kennedy, gaining ridicule for both of them. Gillibrand’s moderate views alienated the left wing of the Democratic Party. She has proven a remarkably successful fundraiser, and primary challengers have dropped away. Nine-term Congressman Peter King has declined to run. Republicans are trying to recruit former Governor George Pataki, who runs even in the polls with Gillibrand. When asked about the speculation, Pataki said that "you never say never." Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has declined to seek the Senate seat.

• Oregon

Democrat Ron Wyden is heavily favored to win reelection. However, Republicans can make a comeback if former Senator Gordon Smith, who was defeated for reelection by a narrow margin in 2008, runs again.

• Pennsylvania

After polls showed him losing the Republican primary by as much as 20 points, Arlen Specter simply changed party affiliation and is now a Democrat. Now Specter faces two heavyweight opponents, 7th-district Congressman Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary, and former 15th district Congressman and Club for Growth President Pat Toomey in the general election.

• Vermont

Patrick Leahy, the third most senior U.S. Senator, has announced his candidacy and is expected to easily win reelection in heavily Democratic Vermont. The only serious challenge to Leahy would be if Governor Jim Douglas runs, but he appears to have no interest in seeking the seat.

• Washington

Senior Senator Patty Murray is well positioned for reelection in 2010. Although if 8th district Congressman Dave Reichert runs the race could become competitive.

• Wisconsin

Three-term incumbent Russ Feingold has positioned himself for a comfortable reelection in 2010. Although the race would immediately become competitive if former governor and Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson runs.

Republican incumbents

• Alabama

Senior Senator Richard Shelby, who was originally elected as a conservative Democrat but changed party affiliation to Republican after the 1994 Republican Revolution, will likely not be a target from national Democrats after three landslide victories in 1992, 1998, and 2004.

• Alaska

Lisa Murkowski, who was appointed to the Senate by her father, Governor Frank H. Murkowski, raised charges of nepotism. She won a term in her own right in 2004 by a close 48%-45% margin, yet she is currently favored to win reelection. No prominent Democrats have shown interest in running.

• Arizona

Senior Senator John McCain, the Republicans presidential nominee in 2008, caught a break when Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was appointed Secretary of Homeland Security, making it highly unlikely for her to challenge him for his Senate seat in 2010. Chris Simcox, a founder of the Minuteman group, is challenging McCain in a primary.

• Georgia

First-term Senator Johnny Isakson's solid standing for his reelection. His most formidable Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Thurbert Baker is instead seeking a campaign for Governor.

• Idaho

Mike Crapo's conservative voting record goes along with the Republican stronghold of Idaho. In 2004, he faced no Democratic challenger and won reelection with over 99% of the vote. Crapo's seat is expected to be one of the safest in the 2010 election cycle.

• Iowa

30-year incumbent Charles Grassley is one of the most distinguished and influential Republican Senators in Washington (he serves as ranking member of the Finance Committee) and as of now is secure to win a sixth term. Former state legislator Bob Krause is planning to challenge Grassley. A September 2009 Rasmussen poll has Grassley leading Krause by 26-percentage points.

• Louisiana

Louisiana, a conservative state, was not effected by the national trend for Democrats in 2006 and 2008. Republican Bobby Jindal was elected Governor by a landslide in 2007, in 2008 John McCain received a larger margin of victory in the state than George W. Bush in 2004, while the GOP gained a House seat in the second district. Yet first-term Republican David Vitter may be vulnerable for his reelection after he confessed in 2007 to seeing an escort service, which has continued to taint his career. Third-district Congressman Charlie Melancon has announced his candidacy and is expected to easily win the Democratic nomination, while Vitter may face a primary challenge from Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne. Adult film star Stormy Daniels has announced that she is running, but has not stated in which party.

• North Carolina

First-term Republican Richard Burr may be vulnerable after Barack Obama won North Carolina's 15 electoral votes by a narrow margin, and Democrat Kay Hagan defeated Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole. It is also worth noting that not a single Senator has held this seat for more than one term since 1974. State Attorney General Roy Cooper announced he will not challenge Burr, and Democrats are still looking for a candidate.

• South Carolina

First-term Republican Jim DeMint, known as an outspoken conservative, has not hurt him in the Republican stronghold of South Carolina. Democrats have failed to recruit any well-known candidates and DeMint remains in a conformable position for 2010.

• South Dakota

In 2004, John Thune defeated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, his victory quickly made him a rising star in the Republican Party. Democrats have no high-profile challenger for 2010, and he is favored to win reelection.

• Utah

Three-term Senator Robert Bennett represents a state that John McCain won by over thirty-percentage points and is expected to win reelection by a comfortable margin.

Governors

The top races for governorships, and the parties now in power, are:

for November, 2009:

• Virginia open seat (incumbent Democrat is not running)
• N.J. incumbent Democrat is running

In both states the Republicans in early September had a lead of 5% to 10% in polls.

for 2010:

• 1 Kansas incumbent=Democrat
• 2 R.I. incumbent=Republican
• 3 Hawaii incumbent=Republican
• 4 Nevada incumbent=Republican
• 5 Tennessee incumbent=Democrat
• 6 Michigan incumbent=Democrat
• 7 Oklahoma incumbent=Democrat
• 8 Florida incumbent=Republican, not running
• 9 N.Y. incumbent=Democrat

2009

• New Jersey

Incumbent Democrat Governor Jon Corzine was defeated for reelection by a 45%-49% margin over Republican challenger Chris Christie. Corzine's approval ratings had plummeted as the New Jersey economy weakened, high property taxes were a heavy burden, and recurrent corruption scandals tainted Democrats in the state. In late October polls showed Christie tied with Corzine; Chris Daggett, a liberal Republican and former regional administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency, who ran as an independent was polling as high as 20%, however underperformed with 6% of the vote.

• Virginia

Incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine was not seeking a second term because the Virginia constitution does not allow a governor to succeed himself (they are the only state in the nation to have such a provision). The Republican nominee, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell, defeated Democrat State Senator Creigh Deeds by an 18-point landslide. Additionally, Republicans maintianed the Lieutenant Governorship and Attorney General's office.

2010

• Alabama

Republican Governor Bob Riley is term-limited in 2010, both parties are expected to face a competitive primary. Announced Republican candidates include State Representative Robert Bentley, State Treasurer Kay Ivey, businessman Tim James and former state Supreme Court chief justice Roy Moore, while announced Democratic candidates are 7th district Congressman Artur Davis and state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. Republicans have won 5 out of the last 6 gubernatorial elections in Alabama, and John McCain won its 9 electoral votes by over 60-percentage points.

• Alaska

Sarah Palin, one-term Governor and former Vice-Presidential nominee, resigned on July 3rd, 2009 and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell inherited the governorship. Although Alaska has strong Republican-leanings, Parnell is being challenged by Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives John Harris, while Democrat candidates include State Senator Hollis French and former State Representative Ethan Berkowitz.

• Arkansas

Democrat Mike Beebe has high approval ratings and is favored to win a second term, despite Arkansas trending Republican in presidential politics. No Republicans have announced their candidacy, although former Congressman Asa Hutchinson may run.

• Arizona

After Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was nominated by President Obama to serve as Secretary of Homeland Security, Arizona Secretary of State Janice K. Brewer, a Republican, succeeded her. She has announced that she will seek a full term. Brewer may be one of the most vulnerable Republican Governors in 2010. State Attorney General Terry Goddard has stated he has plans to run, while other possible Democratic candidates include Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon and former Tempe Mayor Neil Giuliano.

• California

Incumbent Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is prohibited from seeking reelection because of term-limits. Schwarzenegger was elected in 2003 after a recall of Governor Gray Davis and reelected in a landslide in 2006. However, Schwarzenegger's popularity, along with the Democratic assembly, have fallen since the California budget crisis. State Attorney General and former Governor Jerry Brown is running for the Democratic nomination. Additionally, Democrats are waiting if senior Senator Dianne Feinstein runs. On the Republican side, businesswoman Meg Whitman has announced her candidacy, and could easily self-finance her campaign. State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former Congressman Tom Campbell have formed exploratory committees.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom was seeking the Democratic nomination, however dropped out in October 2009 after lackluster poll numbers and meager fund-raising receipts.

• Colorado

Despite recent success for Democrats in Colorado, incumbent Governor Bill Ritter is expected to face a difficult reelection. His policies of higher taxes and unionization of state employees has earned him criticism from the business community, and his approval ratings have fallen to 45%. . Announced Republican challengers include Scott McInnis, who represented western and southern Colorado in the U.S. House from 1993 through 2005, Colorado Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, and businessman Dan Maes. Public opinion polls show McInnis leading Ritter by 5-8 points , while Ritter and Penry are in a dead heat.

• Connecticut

M. Jodi Rell, despite being a Republican Governor from a blue state, was reelected with 63% of the vote in 2006 and currently has a 75% approval rating. Despite her high approval ratings, she will not run for another term in 2010. Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele is widely expected to announce his candidacy. Announced Democrats include Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, former Speaker of the Connecticut House of Representatives James Amann, and Connecticut Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz. Former Senate candidate Ned Lamont may run.

• Florida

Republican Governor Charlie Crist has announced he will not seek a second term and instead run for the United States Senate, meaning there will be an open race. Republican state Attorney General Bill McCollum and Democrat chief financial officer Alex Sink are strongly favored to win their party's nomination. Although Barack Obama won Florida's 27 electoral votes with 51% of the vote, they typically elected Republicans to state offices. Public opinion polls have McCollum leading Sink by 1-11 points.

• Georgia

Republican Sonny Perdue, who was elected with 51% of the vote in 2002 and easily reelected in 2006, is term-limited in 2010. There is a crowded field of Republican candidates, including 9th district Congressman Nathan Deal, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel, George Senate President Pro Tempore Eric Johnson, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, state Representative Austin Scott, and State Senator Jeff Chapman. Democrats have a series of formidable candidates as well, including state Attorney General Thurbert Baker, former one-term Governor Roy Barnes, Assembly Minority Leader DuBose Porter, Ray City Mayor Carl Camon, and former Commander of the Georgia National Guard David Poythress. Grady County NAACP President John Monds is seeking the Libertarian Party nomination. In 2008 Monds ran for Public Service Commissioner, and although he lost he became the first Libertarian to ever receive over 1 million votes (33%).

• Guam

Guam Governor Felix P. Camacho, a Republican, is term limited in 2010. Announced Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Michael W. Cruz, and State Senator Eddie B. Calvo. Former Governor Carl Gutierrez is seeking the Democratic nomination. D.C.'s political report has predicted the office will remain if Republican control.

• Hawaii

Republican Governor Linda Lingle is term-limited in 2010. James Aiona, who has served as the state's Lieutenant Governor since 2002, is heavily favored to win the Republican nomination, while 10-term Congressman Neil Abercrombie is seeking the Democratic nomination. Hawaii Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann may also run. A June Research 2000 poll shows Abercrombie leading Aiona by 9-percentage points, with 19% undecided.

• Idaho

Butch Otter, governor of one of the most conservative states in the nation, has not indicated whether he will seek a second term (although he has held a number of fundraisers). If not Lieutenant Governor Brad Little may run. Announced GOP candidates include Ada County commissioner Sharon Ullman, and rancher Rex Rammell, who received 5.4% of the vote when he ran for Governor as an Independent in 2008. No Democrat has announced their candidacy, although Boise Mayor David Bieter has been mentioned as a potential candidate.

• Illinois

Democratic Governor Pat Quinn was installed as governor after the impeachment of Rod Blagojevich. Quinn has announced he will seek a full term in 2010. Quinn is being challenged for the Democratic nomination by State Comptroller Dan Hynes. Republican candidates include State Senators Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard, and former State GOP chair Andrew McKenna.

• Iowa

Chet Culver, who was elected governor in 2006 riding on a Democratic wave, will likely face a competitive challenge in 2010. Culver's job approval rating has fallen as the economy continues to falter. Public opinion polls show he would lose by double digits if former Governor Terry Branstad, a Republican, runs. Announced GOP candidates include State Rep. Christopher Rants, state Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, and state Rep. Rod A. Roberts. U.S. Congressman Steve King may also run.

• Kansas

Kathleen Sebelius, a Democratic Governor from the Republican-stronghold of Kansas, stepped down after being nominated to serve as Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Obama administration. Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson, a Democrat who assumed the office of Governor after Sebelius' resignation, will not seek a term in his own right. Republican Senior Senator Sam Brownback has officially announced his candidacy for Governor. As of now no Democrat is running.

• Maryland

Democrat Martin O'Malley will likely run for a second term in 2010. O'Malley's approval rating has fallen to 33% after a series of tax increases. The race could become competitive if former Governor Robert Ehrlich seeks a rematch.

• Maine

Democrat Governor John Baldacci is term-limited by state law. Republicans see this as an opportunity to gain the governorship. Candidates include Matt Jacobson, President of Maine & Company, mayor of Waterville Paul LePage, State Senator Peter Mills, and Les Otten, former co-owner of the Boston Red Sox. Democrat candidates include State Senate President Elizabeth Mitchell, former Maine Attorney General Steven Rowe, State Representative Dawn Hill, and Biddeford Mayor Donna Dion.

• Massachusetts

Governor Deval Patrick, although a Democratic Governor from a blue state, will likely face a difficult reelection after a disappointing performance as governor. Republican candidates include health care executive Charlie Baker and businessman Christy Mihos. Polls show Deval trailing both of his Republican opponents.

• Michigan

Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm has suffered in her job approval ratings as the Michigan economy, heavily dependent of the auto industry, continues to falter. She is legally barred from seeking a third-term under state law. Announced Republican candidates include 9th district Congressman Peter Hoekstra, state Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, State Senator Tom George, and former Huron County Commissioner Timothy Rujan. Rock star Ted Nugent has expressed interest in seeking the Republican nomination. Lieutenant Governor John Cherry was mentioned as a Democratic candidate, but dropped out after poor poll numbers. Public opinion polls had Mike Cox leading John Cherry by 5-8 points. A December 2009 Rasmussen Poll showed Bouchard leading Cherry 42%-32%, and Pete Hoekstra leading 46%-32%. State Representative Alma Smith, former Flint Mayor Don Williamson, and former State Representative John Freeman are seeking the Democratic nomination.

• Minnesota

Two-term Governor Tim Pawlenty has announced he will not seek another term and has become a potential 2012 GOP presidential candidate. Upon his announcement, several Republican jumped in the race, including State House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, former Minnesota State Auditor Patricia Anderson, State Representatives Paul Kohls and Tom Emmer, State Senator Mike Jungbauer, Minnesota Senate Minority Whip David Hann, and former State Representative Bill Haas. Former U.S. Senator Norm Coleman may run. Announced Democratic-Farmer-Labor-Party (DFL) candidates include Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives Margaret Anderson Kelliher, former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza, State Senators Tom Bakk and John Marty, and State Representatives Paul Thissen and Tom Rukavina. Former United States Senator Mark Dayton, who left office as one of the most unpopular Senators in the nation, is also seeking the Democratic nomination.

• Nebraska

Republican Governor Dave Heineman, who was easily reelected with 73% of the vote in 2006, is expected to easily win a another term.

• Nevada

Republican Governor Jim Gibbons may be vulnerable for his reelection after a series of scandals in his administration, a messy divorce and lawsuit, his failure to examine Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site, and his handling of the budget has brought his approval ratings down. Several Republicans are challenging him in a primary, including former Nevada Attorney General Brian Sandoval, former State Senator Joe Heck, and North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon. Reno Mayor Bob Cashell may also run. No Democrats have announced their candidacy, although many have expressed interest, including Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid — son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and state Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley. Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman may run as a Democrat or independent.

• New Mexico

Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was nominated by the President Obama to serve as Secretary of Commerce, however was forced to resign after it was exposed that his administration had a "pay-to-play" deal with a defense contractor. Richardson denies any wrong doing, and as he is term-limited in 2010, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish is seeking the Democratic Party nomination. Albuquerque financial adviser Greg Zanetti and State Representative Janice Arnold-Jones have announced their candidacy for the Republican Party nomination. Possible candidates include former state GOP chair Allen Weh, former U.S. Representative Heather Wilson and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White.

• New York

After Democratic Governor Eliot Spitzer resigned in disgrace when was revealed he was involved in a prostitution ring, Lieutenant Governor David Paterson took office. Governor Paterson's approval ratings have plummeted to 21% after his handling of the state budget crisis, his mismanagement of filling in the appointment of Hillary Clinton's vacant Senate seat, and a proposed number of tax increases. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has declined to seek the governorship and has endorsed former Congressman Rick Lazio. President Barack Obama in Sept. 2009 contacted Paterson, asking him not to seek reelection in 2010 in that he cannot recover from his dismal political standing. Democrats hope that a stronger candidate, such as State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo runs.

• Oklahoma

Democratic Governor Brad Henry cannot run for reelection because of term limits. Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson are seeking the Democratic nomination, while Republicans are united behind Congresswoman Mary Fallin. A Public Policy Poll shows Fallin leading both Askins and Edmondson.

• Ohio

Incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland may be vulnerable in his reelection as Ohio suffers from over 10% unemployment, the 10th highest out of 50 states and crippling taxes, the 4th worst in the nation. John Kasich, former Congressman from the 12th district from 1983-2001 and host of the Ohio-based talk television program Heartland with John Kasich, is seeking the Republican nomination. A December 2009 Rasmussen poll has Kasich leading by a 48%-39% margin.

• Oregon

Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski cannot seek a third term. Former Governor John Kitzhaber is seeking the governorship again. Former Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury is also running. Republicans have lessor-known candidates, including Businessman Allen Alley, State Senator Jason Atkinson, and former Oregon State Senator John Lim.

• Pennsylvania

Democratic Governor Ed Rendell is term limited in 2010. Announced Republican candidates include Attorney General Tom Corbett. Democrat Auditor General Jack Wagner is running. A December 2009 Quinnipiac poll showed Corbett leading Wagner by a 43%-33% margin. 6th district Congressman Jim Gerlach was a Republican candidate, however dropped out in January and is seeking reelection instead.

• Rhode Island

Although Democrats have dominated Rhode Island politics, they have voted Republican for 7 of the last 9 gubernatorial elections. As Rhode Island has been hit hard by the national recession, Republican Governor Donald Carcieri has suffered in the polls, however is barred from seeking a third term because of term-limits. Lincoln Chafee, former Senator who was known as the most liberal Republican in Congress, is running for Governor as an Independent, and is a formidable candidate because of his name recognition. Possible Democratic candidates include state Attorney General Patrick Lynch and state General Treasurer Frank Caprio. State Representative Joseph Trillo will seek the Republican nomination, while former state Attorney General Arlene Violet, the first woman ever elected Attorney General, may also run.

• South Carolina

Republican Governor Mark Sanford's possible presidential ambitions in 2012 ended after it was exposed he was having an extramarital affair with a woman from Argentine. Sanford will not resign, however is barred from seeking a third term because of term limits. Both parties have prepared for an open race. Announced Republican candidates include state Attorney General Henry McMaster, 3rd district Congressman Gresham Barrett, State Senator Larry Grooms, and State Representative Nikki Haley. Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer will likely run. On the Democratic side, candidates include state Superintendent of Education Jim Rex, State Senators Robert Ford and Vincent Sheheen, lobbyist Dwight Drake, and lawyer Mullins McLeod.

• South Dakota

Two-term Republican Governor Mike Rounds cannot run for a third-term because of term limits. Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard and State Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson. For the Democrats State Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepriem is running. A December 2009 Public Policy Polling survey showed both Daugaard and Knudson leading Heidepriem by double digit margins.

• Tennessee

Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is term limited and unable to seek reelection. Tennessee, a Republican-leaning state, will likely have a competitive contest. Announced Republican candidates are 3rd district Congressman Zach Wamp, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, and Lieutenant Governor Ron Ramsey. Democrats include Tennessee Senate Minority Leader Jim Kyle, former State House Majority Leader Kim McMillan, State Senator Roy Herron, and former attorney Mike McWherter.

• Texas

Former Lieutenant Governor under George W. Bush and now Governor, Rick Perry is running for an unprecedented third consecutive term. Perry has alienated some citizens with his support of the Trans-Texas Corridor and social conservatives with an executive order mandating vaccine for school girls. Texas' Senior Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is challenging Perry in a primary. Although likable with a large constituency, she has taken some unpopular positions when voting for TARP. Larry Kilgore, who advocates that Texas succeeds from the union, is running. Democratic candidates include Kinky Friedman, who is running in a second attempt for the governorship, and former State Representative Tom Schieffer.

• Utah

Lieutenant Governor Gary Herbert, Republican, inherited the governorship after Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. resigned to serve as U.S Ambassador to China. In a state that has not elected a Democrat Governor since 1980, Herbert is favored to win a full term.

• Vermont

Although a solidly Democratic state (Barack Obama won it by over 67% of the vote) Republican Jim Douglas was elected governor in 2002 and reelected in 2004, 2006, and 2008. Douglas has announced he will not run for another term, and Republicans are hoping for Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie to enter the race. Randy Brock, an African-American conservative who served as State Auditor and in the Vermont Senate, may also run. Democrat candidates include Doug Racine, Lieutenant Governor under Howard Dean, as well as Vermont Secretary of State Deborah Markowitz.

Further reading

• Michael Barone, The Almanac of American Politics: 2010 (2009) 1726pp; in-depth covereage of every seat in Congress.