Difference between revisions of "Essay: The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years"

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Revision as of 02:42, March 29, 2024

Question: Do you remember what you did on April 9, 2022? If not, you are not alone given the insignificance of the day in terms of negotiating an effective peace deal relative to the war in Ukraine.

See also: Why exceedingly few people in the world endlessly obsess about the date of April 9, 2020.

Question: Was the SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 a pivotal point in international relations that will determine international relations for 30 years and did Mr. X make a failed prediction?

In my essay entitled Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?, I covered why so many so-called political experts have failed predictions.

Question: Do you remember what you did on April 9, 2022? If not, you are not alone given the insignificance of the day in terms of negotiating an effective peace deal relative to the war in Ukraine. See: Why exceedingly few people in the world endlessly obsess about the date of April 9, 2020.

Question: Did you know that a great many so-called political experts have a very poor track record when it comes to their predictions? It's true. Although some political experts practice critical thinking and try to falsify their notions/theories, most do not.

There was a large study on this matter of the unreliability of many political experts and I give the resources related to this matter below:

Contents

The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in international relations that will affect international relations for 30 years

Vladimir Putin's special military operation in Ukraine was launched in February 24, 2022.

On April 17, 2022, Mr. X claimed that the specific month of April 2022 was going to determine the future of world politics for the next 30 years.

Question: Did something earth-shattering happen in the war in Ukraine or in the world SPECIFICALLY in the month of April 2022 or did Mr. X make a failed prediction?

Key initial point: Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer, who predicted the war in Ukraine many years before it happened, said about the time leading up to the war in Ukraine: "I think that the West believed, and here we are mainly talking about the United States, that if a war did break out between Ukraine and Russia, that the West plus Ukraine would win. That the Russians would be defeated. I believe we thought that was the case. If you look at the run-up to the war in early 2022 what's really striking to me that it was quite clear to me that war was at least a serious possibility. Yet the West and the United States more generally did virtually nothing to prevent the war. If anything, we egged the Russians on. And I find this hard to imagine. What was going on here? I believe that we believed that if a war broke out we had trained up the Ukrainians and armed the Ukrainians up enough that they would hold their own on the battlefield number one. And number two I think we thought that the magic weapon was sanctions. That we would finish the Russians off with sanctions. And the Ukrainians would end up defeating the Russians and then they would be in a position where we could admit them into NATO."

Also, keep in mind that Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine will likely drag on for a long time.

Commentary on initial point: In 2022, the United States had a tremendous amount of influence over Ukraine given that in the past the United States/NATO armed Ukraine and gave it training. So the whole notion that some tentatively negotiated peace deal between Russia in April 2022 would hold and not be interfered with by the USA is a fantasy because the foolish and corrupt Biden Administration (which is very anti-Russia/Putin) likely thought that Ukraine would win the war and that Ukraine would be admitted into NATO. One of the reasons for the USAs/West overconfidence when it came to the war was the fact that the USA/West won the Cold War and for a period afterwards the USA had a unipolar status in the world in terms of international politics which saw the expansion of NATO in Europe (Before the rise of China caused there to be a bipolar world. See: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?). In addition, in the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Russian military underperformed. Furthermore, Ukraine and Russia had poor relations before February 2022. In addition, there were a number of other very strong factors that were working against the tentative peace deal holding which I provide in the essay below.

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

Second key initial point:

See also: Russian war crimes in Ukraine

From the article Possibility of talks between Zelenskyy and Putin came to a halt after Johnson’s visit - UP sources which quotes Ukrainska Pravda article about the April 9, 2022 meeting between the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy:

“ "The Russian side…was actually ready for the Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.

But two things happened, after which a member of the Ukrainian delegation, Mykhailo Podoliak, had to openly admit that it was "not the time" for the meeting of the presidents.

The first thing was the revelation of the atrocities, rapes, murders, massacres, looting, indiscriminate bombings and hundreds and thousands of other war crimes committed by Russian troops in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories…

Only the latest news, only the facts, only the truth. Follow Ukrainska Pravda on Twitter!

The second "obstacle" to agreements with the Russians arrived in Kyiv on 9 April."

Details: According to Ukrainska Pravda sources close to Zelenskyy, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages.

The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with.

And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not.

Johnson’s position was that the collective West, which back in February had suggested Zelenskyy should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined, and that here was a chance to "press him."

Three days after Johnson left for Britain, Putin went public and said talks with Ukraine "had turned into a dead end".[1]

”

The Russians should not have committed war crimes in Ukraine (See: Russian war crimes in Ukraine).

Videos about Russian war crimes in Ukraine:

Exposing Putin’s Crimes: Evidence of Russian War Crimes and Other Atrocities in Ukraine: House Foreign Affairs Committee - Republicans:

International Criminal Court (ICC) issues arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over war crimes:

Third key initial point:

On April 9, 2022, according to Ukrainian officials, two Russian missiles struck the train station in Kramatorsk, a city in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk oblast, as thousands of civilians were gathered Friday awaiting evacuation to safer regions of the country.[2] At least 52 civilians were killed.[3]

This was the very day that Boris Johnson was meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy about rejecting a tentative peace agreement.

Question: If the Russians were serious about peace, then why were they still raining down missiles on civilians? On April 9, 2022, Moscow made it very easy for Boris Johnson to convince Zelenskyy to reject a tentative peace deal with the Russian war criminals.

Moscow, Russia

On April 9, 2022, according to Ukrainian officials, two Russian missiles struck the train station in Kramatorsk, a city in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk oblast, as thousands of civilians were gathered Friday awaiting evacuation to safer regions of the country.[4] At least 52 civilians were killed.[5]

This was the very day that Boris Johnson was meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy about rejecting a tentative peace agreement.

Question: If the Russians were serious about peace, then why were they still raining down missiles on civilians? On April 9, 2022, Moscow made it very easy for Boris Johnson to convince Zelenskyy to reject a tentative peace deal with the Russian war criminals.

How long do post WW2 wars last - some relevant statistics

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[6]

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine

“ Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[7] ”

Political scientist John Joseph Mearsheimer's July 2023 analysis of the war in Ukraine and how long it will likely last

John Joseph Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

In July of 2023, the journalist Glenn Greenwald interviewed John Mearsheimer and I recommend watching it at: INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine.

In the video, Mearsheimer makes compelling arguments on why a peace deal or an end of the war soon is unlikely and why the war in Ukraine will drag on for a considerable amount of time.

The butterfly effect and the historian David Hackett Fischer to the rescue

The Milbert's Tortoiseshell butterfly

Conservapedia's article the Butterfly effect states:

“ "The Butterfly effect is the essence of chaos theory. It holds that a system can be sensitive to initial conditions. Systems, such as the weather, can become unstable over time, giving rise to the notion that a butterfly flapping its wings in New York can cause a hurricane in the Pacific Ocean.[8] The butterfly effect is usually found in science fiction stories and movies. It describes the possibility of a person traveling back in time, and inadvertently changing some minuscule thing in the past — such as killing a butterfly — that has momentous consequences as time goes by, so that the he returns to a radically altered future.[9] ”

So at some level, who really knows how pivotal or non-pivotal even small events in April of 2022 will be on future events? Maybe in April 2023, the next Adolf Hitler like person was conceived or the next scientist who comes up with some discovery that will radically improve agricultural production. All we can do is look at things probabilistically.

The historian David Hackett Fischer and his logical/historical principles related to historiography

Conservapedia has a resource page at Conservapedia:Principles of evaluating historical claims and evidence.

David Hackett Fischer is a historian who wrote the excellent book Historians’ Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought.

NASA's review of Fisher's book indicates:

“ "Fischer, David Hackett, Historians’ Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought (New York: Harper Collins, 1970). In only approximately 300 pages, Fischer surveys an immense amount of background historical literature to point out a comprehensive variety of analytical errors that many, if not most, historians commit. Fischer points out specific examples of faulty or sloppy reasoning in the work of even the most prominent historians, making it a useful book for beginning students of history. While this book presumably did not make Fischer popular with many of his peers, it should be noted that his contributions as a historian have not been limited simply to criticizing the work of others; since 1976, he has published a number of well-received books on other historical topics."[10] ”

Fischer's 7 habits of sound historiography

Voroshilov, Molotov, Stalin, with Nikolai Yezhov.jpg
Nikolai Yezhov walking with Joseph Stalin in the top photo taken in the mid 1930s. Subsequent to his execution in 1940, Yezhov was edited out of the photo by Soviet Union censors.[11]

See also: Historical revisionism

Historical revisionism involves either the illegitimate distortion of the historical record or a careful and more objective re-examination of the historical data about a historical event or events.

Fischer provides some useful principles to combat poor historical analysis and historical revisionism.

Fischer's 7 rules for historians taken from Josh McDowell's book The New Evidence that Demands a Verdict:

(1) The burden of proof for a historical claim is always upon the one making the assertion.

(2) Historical evidence must be an answer to the question asked and not to any other question.

(3) "An historian must not merely provide good evidence, but the best evidence. And the best evidence, all other things being equal, is the evidence which is most nearly immediate to the event itself."

(4) Evidence must always be affirmative. Negative evidence is no evidence at all. In other words, Fischer is saying that an absence of evidence is not necessarily evidence of absence.

(5) The meaning of any historical evidence is dependent upon the context from which it is obtained from.

(6) "An empirical statement must not be more precise than its evidence warrants."

(7) "All inferences from historical evidence are probabilistic."

Josh McDowell's Evidence that Demands a Verdict, page 674, 1999, Mark MCGarry, Texas Type and Book Works, Dallas, TX, ISBN 0-7852-4219-8)

Question: Was April 2022 a pivotal point in international relations that will affect international relations for 30 years?

Above I bolded #1, #2, #6 and #7 of Fischer's habits of sound historiography which I give below:

(1) The burden of proof for a historical claim is always upon the one making the assertion.

(2) Historical evidence must be an answer to the question asked and not to any other question.

(7) "All inferences from historical evidence are probabilistic."

Analysis

The historical issue/question posed was NOT whether the war in Ukraine will be a pivotal point in international relations for 30 years. Mr. X asserted that the SPECIFIC month of April 2022 was a pivotal point in geopolitical history. See #2 of Fischer's habits of sound historiography given above.

Given that the war is still dragging on, I argue that Mr. X's prediction concerning that month was a failed prediction. Further, the war may drag on for a considerable amount of time, but given the unpredictability of wars, one cannot say dogmatically how long this war will end.

Furthermore, at least in my estimation, Mr. X has yet to provide compelling evidence that April 2022 a pivotal point in international relations that will affect international relations for 30 years (See #1 and #7 of Fischer's habits of sound historiography).

Further analysis: Boris Johnson's visit to Ukraine in April of 2022. Boris Johnson visited Ukraine on April 9, 2022

See also: Why exceedingly few people in the world endlessly obsess about the date of April 9, 2020.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson visited Ukraine on April 9, 2022.

In October 2023, former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder explained to the Berliner Zeitung how the United States sabotaged Russia-Ukrainian peace negotiations at the outset of the NATO war in Ukraine:

“ At the peace negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022 with Rustem Umerov, the Ukrainians did not agree on peace because they were not allowed to. For everything they discussed, they first had to ask the Americans. I had two talks with Umerov, then a one-on-one meeting with Putin, and then with Putin's envoy. Umerov opened the conversation with greetings from Zelensky. As a compromise for Ukraine's security guarantees, the Austrian model or the 5+1 model was proposed. Umerow thought that was a good thing. He also showed willingness on the other points. He also said that Ukraine does not want NATO membership. He also said that Ukraine wants to reintroduce Russian in the Donbass. But in the end, nothing happened. My impression was that nothing could happen, because everything else was decided in Washington. That was fatal. Because the result will now be that Russia will be tied more closely to China, which the West should not want."[12] ”

Also, consider these 10 points:

1. Joe Biden, his son Hunter Biden and several family members are corrupt and took bribes from other countries such as Ukraine, China, etc. Joe Biden and the current Democratic Party have drifted towards the left and now have an authoritarian streak and are currently using to law to harass/imprison political opponents (See: Biden/Harris attack on civil liberties).

Joe Biden is undiplomatic and began his presidency calling Vladimir Putin a killer. In WWII, FDR and the tyrant Joseph Stalin worked together to defeat the Nazis. Trump's more diplomatic position is that Putin may be a killer and the USA has not been so innocent in the past was a true statement (Trump on Putin: "we've got a lot of killers. You think our country's so innocent?").

2. Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian (And he is likely a killer. Please read the essay at: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian). Russia has a long history of corruption. Putin's corruption is not some surprising fact of history. See: Corruption in Russia: A Historical Perspective

Corrupt authoritarians such as Vladimir Putin are more likely to spark wars and to continue them as can be seen by the resources directly below:

3. Ukraine is a corrupt and authoritarian country (See: Is Ukraine a democracy?). And its leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy has an authoritarian streak. Ukraine is a cleft country and these types of countries are often powderkegs in terms of wars/conflicts igniting.

4. The UK/USA are allies and have a "special relationship". Boris Johnson was a corrupt politician and left his office due to a scandal (Below it is explained the role that Johnson played in terms of the war in Ukraine).

5. Leaders who are corrupt and authoritarian often have big egos and are callous about human loss of life. So it is more likely that they will go to war and less likely to strike lasting peace deals (For example, the nonaggression pact between Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin did not last long).

6. Prior to February of 2022, Russia and Ukraine had poor relations and had various disputes such as territorial disputes (Crimea, etc.).

7. Post Hillary Clinton's loss of the presidential election, which many Democrats blame on Russian interference in the 2016 election rather than Clinton's weakness as a candidate, the Democrats have been very anti-Russian.

8. Sadly, the world is filled with incompetent and narcissistic politicians. Post-WWII prosperity caused baby boomer politicians in the USA/West to have big egos and be less moral. And 70 years of Soviet communism had a bad effect on Russian society (See: Soviet Union and morality).

9. Europe has an aging and declining population and it has been fairly peaceful area post WWII. It is also in a state of decline (See: Decline of Europe). The thought that an aging and declining Europe and the much smaller population of Ukraine posed a serious military threat to nuclear-armed Russia which has a much bigger population is laughable.

10. The idea of a less corrupt and prosperous Ukraine reforming itself in some ways relative to its present-day corrupt and authoritarian regime in order to join the European Union and NATO was very threatening to the corrupt and authoritarian Vladimir Putin and his Moscow cronies (See: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian). In short, regime security as opposed to national security certainly played a role in Putin's/Moscow's decision to invade Ukraine in February 2020.

Given the 10 matters above, one could argue that the likelihood that a war would develop was elevated and once the war was initiated achieving a lasting peace is less likely.

In September of 2022 website Zerohedge.com published the article Western Allies Led By UK's Johnson Sabotaged Tentative Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal... In April which mentions Boris Johnson's April 9, 2023 visit to Ukraine. To find out why the April 9, 2020 meeting was so insignificant, please read: Why exceedingly few people in the world endlessly obsess about the date of April 9, 2020.

The Zerohedge article Western Allies Led By UK's Johnson Sabotaged Tentative Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal... In April states:

“ Former official at the US National Security Council Fiona Hill has co-authored a lengthy essay recounting key moments in Russia's war and Western efforts to aid Ukraine thus far.

She let slip the following key confirmation in the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)-run Foreign Affairs journal:

According to multiple former senior U.S. officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries. But as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a July interview with his country’s state media, this compromise is no longer an option.

This disclosure and confirmation from the US side - that there was a tentative agreement on the table for Russia-Ukraine peace is a huge revelation, again which will likely go largely missing from popular mainstream media coverage.[13]

”

But Mr. X made his statement on April 17, 2022 which was AFTER the tentative peace deal was scuttled. So Mr. X did not have some profound insight at this time.

The reality is that it wasn't that hard for the USA/UK to scuttle this tentative peace agreement which gave the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement. If this were not the case, then Russia could have easily recovered the peace deal by sufficiently sweetening the deal. Events before Putin's February 2022 special operation in Ukraine (See the 8 points above. Also, see: The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war A lecture by John J. Mearsheimer) and Putin's special operation in Ukraine in February 2022 which got the war in Ukraine ball rolling in a big way were pivotal events and some weakly negotiated peace deal which was easily disrupted and lost was not pivotal.

Furthermore, the UK is not the big dog in the NATO alliance - the USA is. So I would argue that Johnson visited Ukraine in order to scuttle the tentative peace agreement which gave the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement at the Biden Administration's request. At a significant level, the war in Ukraine is a proxy war between the USA and Russia. And once this war in Ukraine got rolling in a big way in February of 2022, the Biden Administration wasn't interested in a quick resolution.

In other words, the horse was out of the barn and galloping towards a long war in February 2022 and a weakly negotiated peace agreement that was easily thwarted was not significant. In the world of sales, competitors cannot easily pull a client from a firm that has very good relations with a client and provides excellent value. The same principle applies to international relations. Russia failed to establish excellent relations with its neighbor Ukraine before the war in Ukraine and so the tenative peace agreement was easily lost.

An analogy

If a conductor briefly manages to slow a runaway train by turning on some breaks which likely cannot slow the train long and will soon give/burn out, the breaks are not a very good solution. The underlying causes of the train being a runaway train have to be solved. As long as there is plenty of fuel and a mighty train engine that is engaged, the towns on the train's route should prepare for a runaway train problem.

That super fragile and tentative peace deal was a break that quickly burned out. Putin should have never launched his special operation. That was like turning on a train's engine, making the conductor get off the train and then watch to see what happens!

And right now, the war in Ukraine is a runaway train. Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer agrees with me about the likely length of the war and believes the war in Ukraine will go on for some time.

Additional analysis: Expected future decline of Europe and Russia according some geopolitical analysis

Expected future decline of Europe according to some political/economic analysts

See also: Decline of Europe

Europe, which is less religious than a majority of the world, has a subreplacement level of births, is projected to have a population that is 30% less smaller by the end of the century (see: Atheism and fertility rates).[14]

In 2014, the Pew Research Forum indicated that Europe will go from 11% of the world's population to 7% of the world's population by 2050.[15]

Europe, which is less religious than a majority of the world, has a subreplacement level of births. It is projected to have a population that is 30% less smaller by the end of the century (see: Atheism and fertility rates).[16]

Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer is a prominent American political scientist and international relations scholar who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

Due to Europe's aging population which is projected to shrink and its various current and projected problems, Mearsheimer stated: “Europe doesn't matter anymore. You know, Europe is basically a giant museum.”[17]

Resources related to the decline of Europe

Expected future decline of Russia according to some political/economic analysts

In my essay Why I am not bullish on Russia's future, I give several compelling reasons why various international relations analysts believe that Russia does not have a bright future.

Why I have some empathy towards the Russian perspective

While I do believe that the notion that an aging and declining Europe and the much smaller population of Ukraine posed a serious military threat to Russia is laughable and that Putin didn't want a more prosperous Ukraine that would threaten the legitimacy of his corrupt and authoritarian regime, I don't think US/NATO should have disrupted the tentatively agreed on outlines of a negotiated interim settlement with Russia in April 2022. At the same, Putin's special military operation in February of 2020 was a big miscalculation that many people in the Kremlin appear to be unhappy about in terms of its consequences to Russia. Also, obviously Ukraine did not conduct good faith negotiations during the Minsk Agreements. It was also a bad decision of Ukraine to try to interfere with Eastern Ukrainians speaking Russian. Canada does a much better job in dealing with the province of French speakers in Quebec.

Russian defector reveals that a 'majority' of people inside the Kremlin are unhappy with the war in Ukraine

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian


The Grand Kremlin Palace is a building in the Moscow Kremlin.

The Moscow Kremlin is a fortified complex in the center of Moscow. The Moscow Kremlin now serves as the official residence of the Russian president and as a museum.

The bottom line is that Russia, Ukraine, USA/NATO all played a part as far as starting and continuing of the war in Ukraine. It is similar to when there is a multiple car crash and court cases decide proportionally what degree the various parties played a role in the car crash.

Vladimir Putin's miscalculation of launching his special military operation in Ukraine: How pivotal was it in affecting world history?

See also: February 2022 might prove to be a pivotal moment in the future of global politics

In my essays on the war in Ukraine, I state why the corrupt authoritarian Vladimir Putin's special military operation in February of 2022 turned out to be a miscalculation by Putin that turned into a runaway train of destruction that has adversely affected Ukraine, the world and Russia.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, on October 13, 2023 stated: "The war in Ukraine compounded by last week’s attacks on Israel may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relationships…This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.[18]

Question: Are historical figures and the leaders of countries more influential than socioeconomic factors and technological factors when it comes to influencing history? In short, how much influence on history did Putin's miscalculation have on history?

The flag of France

The French historian Fernand Braudel was the most prominent member of the Annales School. Braudel's scholarship was centered on three main projects: The Mediterranean (1923–49, then 1949–66), Civilization and Capitalism (1955–79), and the unfinished Identity of France (1970–85). He was a member of the Annales School of French historiography and social history in the 1950s and 1960s. Braudel emphasized the role that large-scale socioeconomic factors have in the making of history.[19] He can also be considered one of the precursors of world-systems theory.[20]

  • Annales school of history: "Annales school, School of history. Established by Lucien Febvre (1878–1956) and Marc Bloch (1886–1944), its roots were in the journal Annales: économies, sociétés, civilisations, Febvre’s reconstituted version of a journal he had earlier formed with Marc Bloch. Under Fernand Braudel’s direction the Annales school promoted a new form of history, replacing the study of leaders with the lives of ordinary people and replacing examination of politics, diplomacy, and wars with inquiries into climate, demography, agriculture, commerce, technology, transportation, and communication, as well as social groups and mentalities. While aiming at a “total history,” it also yielded dazzling microstudies of villages and regions. Its international influence on historiography has been enormous."

The Amazon description of the book The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society:

“ A bold exploration and call-to-arms over the widening gap between AI, automation, and big data—and our ability to deal with its effects

We are living in the first exponential age.

High-tech innovations are created at dazzling speeds; technological forces we barely understand remake our homes and workplaces; centuries-old tenets of politics and economics are upturned by new technologies. It all points to a world that is getting faster at a dizzying pace.

Azeem Azhar, renowned technology analyst and host of the Exponential View podcast, offers a revelatory new model for understanding how technology is evolving so fast, and why it fundamentally alters the world. He roots his analysis in the idea of an “exponential gap” in which technological developments rapidly outpace our society’s ability to catch up. Azhar shows that this divide explains many problems of our time—from political polarization to ballooning inequality to unchecked corporate power. With stunning clarity of vision, he delves into how the exponential gap is a near-inevitable consequence of the rise of AI, automation, and other exponential technologies, like renewable energy, 3D printing, and synthetic biology, which loom over the horizon.

And he offers a set of policy solutions that can prevent the growing exponential gap from fragmenting, weakening, or even destroying our societies. The result is a wholly new way to think about technology, one that will transform our understanding of the economy, politics, and the future.[21]

”
Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the world’s most innovative economies in 2023, according to WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), as a group of middle-income economies have emerged over the past decade as the fastest climbers of the ranking.[22][23][24]

Consider:

1. Ukraine is a cleft country. A cleft country is a nation with a fairly large and distinct cultural groupings as to have separated (e.g., Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia), semi-separated (e.g., Sudan, Tanzania), or have a threat of separatism (e.g., Canada).[25] Cleft countries are often powderkegs that start wars and other conflicts.

2. China was headed for decline before the war in Ukraine due to socioeconomic factors. See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

3. Russia was headed for decline before the war in Ukraine due to socioeconomic factors. See: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

4. The United States was leading power in the world before the war in Ukraine and the United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future due to socioeconomic factors.

5. The United States is a leader in technology and innovation and this is largely due to socioeconomic factors. See: United States and innovation

The USA has many innovative people per capita (See: USA still patent Superpower – But China is catching up fast, 2020). The USA is one of the largest markets of the world and U.S. inventors receive nearly half of U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patents.[26]

Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the world’s most innovative economies in 2023, according to WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), as a group of middle-income economies have emerged over the past decade as the fastest climbers of the ranking.[27][28][29]

On September 27, 2023, Yahoo Finance reported in their news article about the U.S. economy and artificial intelligence (AI): Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing: "Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing...".[30] According to Goldman Sachs, generative AI could increase global GDP by 7%.[31]

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, a frequent critic of the United States, admitted about American's openness, open-mindedness and creativity: "I like the creativity. Creativity when it comes to tackling your country's problems. They're openness. Openness and open-mindedness. Because it allows them to unleash the inner potential of their people. And because of that America has achieved such amazing results."[32]

Given the above, Putin's miscalculation as far as launching his special military operation in February of 2020 certainly could be far less influential than various socioeconomic factors at the time and various socioeconomic trends.

Why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why February 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022

Below are resources on why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why Febuary 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022

Summary

As can be seen in the resources above, April 2022 was likely not a pivotal month in relation to the war in Ukraine or world politics which will affect it for 30 years.

Furthermore, given that modern wars are very costly and destructive in various ways, the war in Ukraine is accelerating the decline of Europe and Russia which was already happening.

Lastly, Mr. X posting of some ancillary quotes on a web page that did not focus on the SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 along with an ancillary quote from Cambridge Press was a strawman argument that did not answer the historical issue at hand.

My predictions about how long the war in Ukraine will last and what its likely outcomes will be

See: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes

Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a pyrrhic victory (See: Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future).

John Joseph Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

John Joseph Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

Mearsheimer predicted the war in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War)

In July of 2023, Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer indicated that he believes that the will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See: INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer). He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.[33]

On August 23, 2023, Axios reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."[34] By November of 2023, after a failed Spring offensive by Ukraine, a Ukrainian top aide was slamming the West over their war fatigue.[35]

A Japan Times article published on November 6, 2023 entitled 'We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning:

“ In eastern Ukraine, where another grueling winter is descending — along with it a likely freeze in major frontline movements — one Ukrainian soldier had a grim assessment of the conflict.

The 35-year-old fighting near the war-battered town of Bakhmut went further than comments from Ukraine's most senior military official, who conceded this week that the war with Russia had reached a stalemate.

"I've been saying that for some time now already. Step by step we're losing the war," said the serviceman, who uses the call sign "Mudryi" (Wise).

"The longer this static war continues, the worse it is for us," he said in a phone interview.[36]

”

Business Insider reported on November 2023:

“ Soldiers in Ukraine are veering increasingly older as the country grapples with a shortage of soldiers after roughly 20 months of brutal fighting against Russia.

As countless casualties have hampered Ukraine's forces, the average age of a soldier in the country is currently around 43 years old, Time magazine reported last week.

That average is up by nearly 10 years from March 2022, one month after the war began, when the average age of a Ukrainian soldier was between 30 and 35 years old, according to FT.

"They're grown men now, and they aren't that healthy to begin with," a close aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Time. "This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia."[37]

”

Alexander Mercouris is a UK writer on international affairs with a special interest in Russia and law who cohosts The Duran YouTube channel with Alex Christoforou who lives in Cyprus. The Duran YouTube channel is a pro-Russia YouTube channel. On November 8, 2023, The Duran YouTube channel, published the video West will choke on Putin's terms for Ukraine which pointed how badly the war was going for Ukraine and that Ukraine and the West will not like Russia's terms for ending the conflict. In addition, they stated that the "stalemate narrative" that various pro-Ukrainian advocates are pushing are fake, absurd and born of desperation and that the Ukrainian army is running out of fighting men, noted that although the Biden Administration and the collective West will be hurt by the war in Ukraine, "The United States will pull through" and that its "not an existential disaster" for the USA, but for Europe (Especially Germany) it will be a big blow.

Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a pyrrhic victory (See: Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse and Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state.

Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.

Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy

Russia getting pummeled in wars in its history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about

See: Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about

More international relations essays

See also: User: Conservative's international relations essays

General

The United States

The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.

See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

China

Russia

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

War in Ukraine

References

  1. ↑ Possibility of talks between Zelenskyy and Putin came to a halt after Johnson’s visit - UP sources
  2. ↑ 10 things you need to know today: April 9, 2022, The Week website
  3. ↑ 10 things you need to know today: April 9, 2022, The Week website
  4. ↑ 10 things you need to know today: April 9, 2022, The Week website
  5. ↑ 10 things you need to know today: April 9, 2022, The Week website
  6. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  7. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  8. ↑ http://www.fortunecity.com/emachines/e11/86/beffect.html
  9. ↑ Conservapedia's Butterfly effect article
  10. ↑ General Historiography, NASA website
  11. ↑ The Commissar Vanishes
  12. ↑ Interview with Gerhard Schröder: How the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia failed, Tomasz Kurianowicz and Moritz Eichhorn, Berliner Zeitung, 22.10.2023. https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/gerhard-schroeder-im-exklusiv-interview-was-merkel-2015-gemacht-hat-war-politisch-falsch-li.2151196
  13. ↑ Western Allies Led By UK's Johnson Sabotaged Tentative Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal... In April
  14. ↑ Population trends 1950 – 2100: globally and within Europe
  15. ↑ 10 projections for the global population in 2050 By Rakesh Kochhar, Pew Research Forum, February 3, 2014
  16. ↑ Population trends 1950 – 2100: globally and within Europe
  17. ↑ John J. Mearsheimer > Quotes
  18. ↑ JPMorgan Chase & Co. New Release, October 13, 2023
  19. ↑ i.e. Fernand Braudel, "The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II" (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1996)
  20. ↑ Caves, R. W. (2004). Encyclopedia of the City. Routledge, 54. 
  21. ↑ [https://www.amazon.com/Exponential-Age-Accelerating-Technology-Transforming/dp/1635769094 The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society
  22. ↑ The U.S. Is (Again) Among the World's Top Innovators, U.S. News and World Report, 2023
  23. ↑ Global Innovation Index 2023: Switzerland, Sweden and the U.S. lead the Global Innovation Ranking; Innovation Robust but Startup Funding Increasingly Uncertain
  24. ↑ World's Most Innovative Countries, Statista website, 2023
  25. ↑ Citizendium
  26. ↑ The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2020
  27. ↑ The U.S. Is (Again) Among the World's Top Innovators, U.S. News and World Report, 2023
  28. ↑ Global Innovation Index 2023: Switzerland, Sweden and the U.S. lead the Global Innovation Ranking; Innovation Robust but Startup Funding Increasingly Uncertain
  29. ↑ World's Most Innovative Countries, Statista website, 2023
  30. ↑ Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing, Yahoo Finance, September 27, 2023
  31. ↑ Generative AI could increase global GDP by 7%, Goldman Sachs
  32. ↑ Preview: Vladimir Putin reveals what he admires about America, CBS News, 2016
  33. ↑ Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18
  34. ↑ White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid, Axios, 2023
  35. ↑ Zelenskyy’s top aide slams West over ‘war fatigue’, Politico, 2023
  36. ↑ 'We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning, Japan Times
  37. ↑ The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems, Business Insider, 2023
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