Difference between revisions of "Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future"

Revision as of 09:07, April 13, 2024

The flag of the United States

Will the United States be the leading power for the foreseeable future? Or will it be China or Russia? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the United States, China and Russia? What is the future of Europe in terms of its influence on international relations?

While I do believe the USA, China and Russia are three major powers, I also believe that both China and Russia have some major problems that are not going to go away anytime soon. In this essay, I argue that the United States has a brighter future than China and Russia for the foreseeable future. So while China and Russia will remain major powers for many years, out of the three major powers, America will remain the strongest power out of the three major powers for the foreseeable future.

United States

Map of the United States

The United States has:

1. Two big oceans and a friendly northern neighbor with a big country to help protect it. In addition, China's and Russia's navies are inferior to the U.S. Navy.^[1][2] See: The U.S. Navy is the most powerful navy in the world

The United States is reshoring its supply chains and producing more things domestically for several reasons and this will give it more security from foreign disruptions.^[3] First, due to Covid-19 disruptions in production in China. Furthermore, China is facing an aging populations with a shortage of workers due to their previous One-child Policy. East Asia as a whole with its subreplacement level of births will also face labor problems in the future as well. As a result, America will face a lower risk of its supply chains disruptions due to countries not being able to keep up with demand or foreign powers militarily disrupting its supply chains. The net result of this is the USA will have a lower need to project its power overseas. The USA having less of a need to be the world's supply chain protector and policeman will cause a less globalized economy and more of an emphasis on regional/local economies. See: The Greatest Reindustrialization Process in US History (Video) and A New Wave of Reshoring for US Manufacturers and McKinsey Study: Shortened Supply Chains are Coming

2. Abundant natural resources. See: U.S. Natural Resources. The United States is one of the world’s leading producers of energy.^[4] See: The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come

3. The United States is a highly developed mixed-market economy in addition to having the world's largest nominal GDP and net wealth. In addition, in advanced economies, there is a high correlation between the size of a country's working-age population and its national GNP and the United States is increasing its working population over time as it has no difficulties in attracting working-age immigrants.^[5] See: Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world

A highly diverse economy can better weather various shocks that adversely affects various sectors of an economy (See: The Importance Of A Diversified Economy and Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification).

The Hill indicates the USA's economy "is highly diversified. The five largest industries, which account for about two-thirds of GDP, are dispersed. This lessens the impact of a shock on the overall economy because some industries fare better than others. It is the basis for the argument that the U.S. economy is experiencing a 'rolling recession.'" (A rolling recession is a situation in which only some industries shrink while the overall economy manages to stay above water).^[6]

The USA was the most economically diverse economy in the world from 2000 to 2021 according to Global Economic Diverse Index (In other words, not having too many eggs in a small amount of baskets.).^[7] The USA was among the most 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website (Diversified in terms of industry sectors).^[8]

4. An above-average constitution with a separation of powers, a bill of rights and the electoral college system that gives sensible rural people influence. And because the U.S. Constitution establishes a federal system, its state governments enjoy extensive authority.^[9][10]

Please see the videos:

• Separation of Powers, Federalist Society video

• Checks and Balances, Lincoln Learning Solutions

• The Constitution: Why A Republic?, Prager University

• The Constitution: Our Bill of Rights, Prager University

• The U.S. Constitution: A Nation of States, Prager University

Research indicates that in the long-term, non-authoritarian countries are more likely to experience greater economic growth. See: Time Under Authoritarian Rule and Economic Growth, CORI Working Paper No. 2007-02

In addition, there is research indicating that economies disrupted by political turmoil/unrest grow at an average rate 2 percentage points slower than those that are untroubled, with a persistent lag in the growth rate of 1 to 2 percentage points in the succeeding year.^[11][12]

Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the world’s most innovative economies in 2023, according to WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), as a group of middle-income economies have emerged over the past decade as the fastest climbers of the ranking.^[13][14][15]

For more information, please see: The USA is more innovative and productive than China and Russia

5. A large Christian population (see: Christianity and social stability and Protestant cultural legacies). And Bible-believing Christians have a higher fertility rate than the general population. Peak secularization of the USA is expected to occur before 2050 followed by a period of desecularization (see: United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics).

6. Many innovative people per capita as can be seen by the information contained in the essay at: The USA is more innovative and productive than China and Russia (See: Ranked: The Most Innovative Countries in 2023. In 2023, the USA ranked #3 in the world in Global Innovation Index and China was ranked 12th, World’s innovation leaders, gauging the innovation performance of 132 economies). The USA is one of the largest markets of the world and U.S. inventors receive nearly half of U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patents.^[16] See also: US holds off China challenge in global R&D spending race, 2024.

Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the world’s most innovative economies in 2023, according to WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), as a group of middle-income economies have emerged over the past decade as the fastest climbers of the ranking.^[17][18][19]

On September 27, 2023, Yahoo Finance reported in their news article about the U.S. economy and artificial intelligence (AI): Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing: "Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing...".^[20] According to Goldman Sachs, generative AI could increase global GDP by 7%.^[21]

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, a frequent critic of the United States, admitted about American's openness, open-mindedness and creativity: "I like the creativity. Creativity when it comes to tackling your country's problems. They're openness. Openness and open-mindedness. Because it allows them to unleash the inner potential of their people. And because of that America has achieved such amazing results."^[22]

7. A younger population relative to other developed countries and lots of people around the world who want to come to the USA. In addition, both the USA and New Zealand have a unique and favorable demographic in terms of age relative to other developed countries (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series).

8. In terms of the quality of its labor, the U.S. labor market is in line with those of other developed countries.^[23] See: The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia

In addition, The Hill indicates:

The United States is a high-income economy.^[25] A high-income economy is defined by the World Bank as a country that has a gross national income per capita of US$13,845 or more in 2022 that is calculated using the Atlas method (The Atlas method, employed by the World Bank since 1993, is used to approximate the economic size of nations in terms of their gross national income (GNI) in U.S. dollars.).^[26] China and Russia are upper middle-income countries.^[27][28]

According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country... The United States has one of the strongest economies in the world. The country hosts some of the largest companies in the world, which contributes to the high GDP per capita in the country. In 2022, the United States recorded a GDP per capita of $76,399."^[29]

Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption. As an economy's labor productivity grows, it produces more goods and services for the same amount of relative work. This increase in output makes it possible to consume more of the goods and services for an increasingly reasonable price."^[30]

As can be seen below in the world labor productivity map by country listed in the section entitled "The myth of multipolarity: American power’s staying power. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?", the USA has significantly higher labor productivity than both China and Russia and it has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world in 2024.

In 2023, the USA was over 400% more productive in terms of labor productivity than China when measured using purchasing power parity.^[31][32] See: China has a labor productivity rate that is a WHOLE LOT LOWER than the labor productivity rate of the USA

In 2023, the USA was over 200% more productive in terms of labor productivity than Russia when measured using purchasing power parity.^[33][34] See: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia

9. Strong STEM programs in universities (but with some foolish Darwinian ideas)

10. The Hill notes concerning multinational U.S. corporations: "U.S. multinationals are also very dynamic and global leaders. What stands out is how the largest companies ranked by market capitalization have changed over time. Today, U.S. multinational corporations dominate the rankings: Four of the five largest companies in the world — Apple ($3 trillion), Microsoft ($2.4 trillion), Alphabet ($1.7 trillion) and Amazon ($1.4 trillion) — are headquartered in the U.S., and only five in the top 20 are outside the U.S."^[35]

The political scientist Joseph Nye's 2004 book describing the concept of "soft power".

Nye popularized the concept of soft power in the late 1980s.^[36]

11. English is the number one spoken language in the world which is the national language of the United States and its close ally the United Kingdom.^[37] And English is widely used in both commerce and in the media in the world.

Soft power is a nation's capacity to cause others to do things through persuasive/non-coercive means. The American political scientist Joseph Nye introduced the concept of "soft power" in the late 1980s. The fact that English is so widely spoken in the world increases America's soft power.

Brand Finance, the world's leading brand valuation consultancy, annually list the countries with the strongest soft power.

In 2024, Brand Finance published the article Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power Index 2024: The USA is Crowned the World’s Soft Power Superpower for the 3rd Consecutive Year^[38] In addition, videos of the seminars on Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power Index 2024 are at Global Soft Power Summit 2024 - Global Soft Power Index Report Launch & Introduction.

Brand Finance's 2022 ranking of the 10 countries with the most soft power^[39]:

1. United States
2. United Kingdom (One of the strongest allies of the United States)
3. Germany
4. China
5. Japan
6. France
7. Canada
8. Switzerland
9. Russia
10. Italy

12. In 2024, a majority of the 100 most valuable brands were based in the United States, with a combined value of $3.2 trillion.^[40]

13. Many people in the United States have an achievement orientation. The United States leads the world in Nobel Prizes, Olympic medals and flags planted by a man on the moon.^[41][42] In 2023, the United States had more than three times as many Nobel Prizes than another country.^[43] In 2023, the United States had been awarded more twice as many Olympic gold medals as any other nation.^[44]

14. The world's most powerful military and advanced military technology^[45] 15. In terms of countries each countries GNP and the adding of the GNP of countries that are allies of the United States or lean to the United States as opposed to countries that are allies of China or lean towards China, the U.S. holds an advantage in terms of economical dominance and this state of affairs could continue for the foreseeable future (See: The US retains the economic advantage in its rivalry with China. America and its allies remain more united and economically powerful than Beijing’s group of allies, Financial Times, November 29, 2023). See also: The US, Allies See Opportunity and Risk in China’s Slowing Economy, Bloomberg News, 2023

Lower Mississippi River at Algiers Point in New Orleans, Lousiana.

16. The United States States has a significant number of allies and strategic partnerships such as the: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (Made up of 31 countries); Aukus (a trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific region between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States); the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), and the Organization of American States (OAS). See: Who Are the US Allies: A Comprehensive Guide to America’s Key International Partnerships and Advancing U.S. Alliances and Partnerships through Security Sector Governance Initiatives

17. According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, one of the strengths of the United States is: "Navigable waterways are extensive and centre upon the Mississippi River system in the country’s interior, the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence Seaway system in the north, and the Gulf Coast waterways along the Gulf of Mexico."^[46]

18. Advances in agricultural productivity in the United States enable a smaller labor force to produce greater quantities than ever before.^[47]

19. Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).

Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).

United States's downsides:

1. It is a divided nation. A large part of the population is very individualistic/narcissistic/selfish with some immoral/uncivilized/wacky/impractical ideas (For example, Homosexual agenda, pro-abortion, pro-feminism, liberal values, secular values, etc.). In addition, there are U.S. government employees/departments trying to influence other countries to adopt these values through incentives and/or withholding of aid. On a more positive side, it looks like the USA is at "peak wokeness". See: Peak wokeness. Are we there yet? A new conservative age rising

However, the United States has weathered political divisions before such as the 1960s in modern times. Furthermore, the country is more unified than during the American Civil War which it also weathered. As noted above, the U.S. has an above-average national constitution with a separation of powers and federalism (State governments enjoy extensive authority and people can move to states that align to their political preferences). This makes revolutions less likely. In addition, it puts a check on states with bad public policies because if the states don't improve, eventually individuals will move out of those states.

2. The Democrats are corrupt and have some uncivilized/whacky/impractical ideas (Defund the police, etc.).

Destitute mother during the Great Depression (1929–1939)

3. Corruption and over politicization problem in the FBI, CIA, U.S. Justice Department and IRS

4. It has a huge national debt (See: National debt of the United States) and it saw a major spike in the amount of its national pandemic during the pandemic and during the post pandemic presidency of Joe Biden.

If the USA has another Great Depression due to excessive debt, it will have a huge effect on Americans and the world. At the same time, the USA can reduce its national debt. It has done it before.

There is evidence that in the 2030s the United States has a good chance of experiencing another Great Depression due to excessive national government debt and other factors and it could be worst than the first one (See: The Coming Great Depression of the 2030s and Top 5 Causes of the 2030s Great Depression). However, just as the United States got through its first Great Depression, I believe it is resilient enough to get through its second one. Of course, I could be wrong and perhaps if such an economic depression occurs, it could be a major factor in the United States breaking up as a nation.

As far as the national debt of the United States, according to the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania article When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?: "As of September 30, 2023, the federal “debt held by the public” (herein, “debt”) stood at $26.3 trillion, or about 98 percent of projected GDP...Table 1 shows that between 2040 and 2045---or in about 20 years---the U.S. debt-GDP ratio will hit between 175 and 200 percent under current fiscal policy, depending on the assumed interest rates. The Appendix shows very little difference when instead using CBO’s projections." Research indicates that government debt drags down economic growth beginning at 78 percent of GDP.^[48]

However, consider this:

"Japan recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 263.90 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2022. Government Debt to GDP in Japan averaged 146.28 percent of GDP from 1980 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 263.90 percent of GDP in 2022 and a record low of 50.60 percent of GDP in 1980."^[49]

While excessive federal government debt is a drag on an economy, an August 2023 article of the New York Times reported concerning the Japanese economy: Roaring Back From Pandemic, Japan’s Economy Grows at 6% Rate.

With that being said, the USA should pay off its national debt over time like in did post WWII. While it will probably be more challenging to do and will require sacrifices, the long term benefit in terms of economic stability and economic growth is well worth the price.

5. Lawless southern neighbor with drug cartels so the USA needs to build a wall on its border with Mexico.

6. Crumbling infrastructure

7. Weak pre-college education system compared to some developed countries with many failing schools

8. It's funding a US/NATO/Ukraine vs. Russia proxy war.

9. There are laws on the books that are unconstitutional due to a legacy of the U.S. Supreme Court being formerly liberal (But the conservative U.S. Supreme Court is turning this around)

Encyclopedia Britannica: Strengths and weaknesses of the United States

• Stengths and weaknesses of the United States, Encyclopedia Britannica

Top 12 reasons why people are flocking to the USA and leaving the corrupt, authoritarian countries of China and Russia

See: Top 12 reasons why people are flocking to the USA and leaving the corrupt, authoritarian countries of China and Russia

George Friedman on the future of the United States. George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs

Great Seal of the United States

George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs.

• George Friedman: We Forgot The Enormous Power of the United States
• Will the U.S. Decline ? | Ask The Right Question with George Friedman

Why is the USA an economic powerhouse and juggernaut?

See also: Is the USA an economic powerhouse and juggernaut?

Articles:

• From Sea to Shining Sea: The Economic Powerhouse of the United States

• The United States: The World’s Economic Powerhouse, ICF Review

• America’s economic outperformance is a marvel to behold, The Economist, 2023

Articles and videos on why it makes sense to be bullish regarding the USA's future

America is the world's leading power and it is reasonable to be bullish about America's future:

• China's and Russia’s economic eclipse proves that the US system is still the best, New York Post, 2023
• Top 10 most powerful countries in the world in 2023, Forbes India, 2023 (The United States is ranked #1)
• The American Renaissance Is Already at Hand by David Brooks, New York Times, 2023
• Why the United States Is the Only Superpower, Tufts University, 2019
• Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower, American Enterprise Institute, 2019

Map of the United States

• Why I Remain Bullish on the United States of America by Ben Carlson, 2022
• Should You Be Bullish on America?, 2022 - video
• 20 reasons why the USA is still the king of the world, 2022 - video
• Why USA is the most powerful country. Why is the USA a Superpower?, 2023 - video
• How Geography Made The US Ridiculously OP, 2021
• Why the USA will remain a global superpower, video by the Geography Bible, 2021

The World is a more competitive place and America cannot be complacent, but the USA is still a superpower:

• America Must Fight to Save Its Superpower Status, The Daily Beast, 2023

History of how the USA became a superpower:

• The US Becomes a Global Superpower, History.com - video
• The Untold Story: How America Became a Superpower, 2023 video
• We May Dominate The World: Ambition, Anxiety, & The Rise Of The American Colossus, video
• The Real Story of How America Became an Economic Superpower, History.com
• The Real Story of How America Became an Economic Superpower, The Atlantic, 2014

The myth of multipolarity: American power’s staying power. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?

See also: Essay: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations? and Essay: Western, liberal dominance over the world is over

As far the field of international relations, the education website Unacademy.com defines a unipolar world thusly, "A unipolar world is when the majority of the world is dominated by a single state or nation's military and economic power and social and cultural influence."

The military defeats of the Soviet Union and United States in Afghanistan and the Vietnam War help demonstrate that we don't live in a unipolar world. It is hard to be an occupier in a country that doesn't want you to be there - especially in an age of fourth generation warfare (Fourth generation warfare is warfare where there is a blurring of the separation between war/politics and combatants/civilians. 4GW wars are more decentralized in terms of their command and control). See also: Essay: Western, liberal dominance over the world is over

A multipolar world refers to a system in the world which power is distributed among multiple/many states or blocs of states, rather than being concentrated in one (unipolar) or two (bipolar) dominant powers.^[50] A bipolar world is when two countries are global superpowers. And a multipolar world is when three or more countries have major influence over the world.

The material below argues that the world is not presently multipolar:

• The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, April 18, 2023 (Argues that the world is closer to unipolarity, but a plausible case can be made for bipolarity)

• The multipolarity thesis: the verdict of Unhedged and Chartbook, Financial Times, October 12, 2023 (Argues that it is a unipolar world, but multipolarity is not a total myth, but it is talk that is exaggerated)

• No, the World Is Not Multipolar, Foreign Affairs, September 22, 2023 (Argues that the world is currently bipolar)

• Ukraine War Ushers in a New Bipolar World Led by the US and China, The Henry L. Stimson Center, May 22, 2023 (Argues that the world is currently bipolar)

• Multipolarity: What Is It Good For? (Discussion of the above Foreign Affairs article The Myth of Multipolarity, 2023 - Many article resources given)

"The United States and China are undoubtedly the two most powerful countries, but at least one more country must be roughly in their league for multipolarity to exist. This is where claims of multipolarity fall apart. Every country that could plausibly rank third—France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom—is in no way a rough peer of the United States or China." -The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, 2023

However, a number of leading geopolitical analysts are skeptical about China remaining a global power as it faces a number of serious intractable problems (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

I do agree with Donald Trump that America should not get into "endless wars" that do not serve America's vital interests.^[51] I also agree with Trump's policy of not using the American military to "solve ancient conflicts in faraway lands".^[52]

U.S. economic power vs. China's economic power

For more information, please see: Good Economic News Keeps Putting US Ahead in Cold War II, Bloomberg New, 2024

U.S. GNP growth

Chart of the growth of U.S. GNP from January 1947 to January 2023.

A great strength of the United States is its very consistent growth of its GNP over decades and its quick recovery the few times its GNP has gone down.^[53]

In addition, research indicates that in the long-term, non-authoritarian countries are more likely to experience greater economic growth. See: Time Under Authoritarian Rule and Economic Growth, CORI Working Paper No. 2007-02

For more information on this topic, please see:

*Should You Be Bullish on America?

Why is America so rich?

*Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world

*Slow and steady growth over the long term via capitalism and the rule of law versus short-sighted authoritarian economic growth that is costly to the long term economy

2024: USA is the top country for millionaires and billionaires. Population of millionaires in the U.S. over the past five years has grown nearly twice as fast as China’s

• USA is the top country for millionaires and billionaires, CNBC, 2024 (Population of millionaires in the U.S. over the past five years has grown nearly twice as fast as China’s)

USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world and it is significantly higher than both China and Russia

See also: The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia

Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption."^[54]

According the Yahoo Finance: "According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country... The United States has one of the strongest economies in the world. The country hosts some of the largest companies in the world, which contributes to the high GDP per capita in the country."^[55]

As can be seen in the map above, the USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world and it is significantly higher than both China and Russia.^[56]

For more information, please see: The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia|The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia

U.S. oil production in August of 2023

See also: The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come

In August of 2023, the USA was outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production.^[57]. The best is yet to come!^[58][59]

The U.S. Energy Information System reported in 2023: "Strong continuing international demand for petroleum and other liquids will sustain U.S. production above 2022 levels through 2050, according to most of the cases we examined in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023). We project that the United States will continue to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply in these cases, as increased exports of finished products support U.S. production."^[60]

For more information, please see: The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come

The USA was among the most 10 most economically diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website (Diversified in terms of industry sectors)

The USA was among the most 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website (Diversified in terms of industry sectors).^[61]

The USA was the most economically diverse economy in the world from 2000 to 2021 according to Global Economic Diverse Index (In other words, not having too many eggs in a small amount of baskets.).^[62]

Read the articles: The Importance Of A Diversified Economy and Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification

The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) is a holistic measure of the productive capabilities of large economic systems, usually cities, regions, or countries.^[63]

In 2018, the USA was ranked #11 in Economic Complexity Index (ECI), as it was defined and calculated by Cesar A. Hidalgo and Ricardo Hausmann and published by The Observatory of Economic Complexity.^[64]

Russia's GNP in recent years

Russian GNP 1991 to August 2023.

Estimates of Russian GNP 1991 to August 2023 measured in US fiat dollars; exchange rates between the dollar and the ruble ended in March 2022 when the ruble became a gold-backed currency.

Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:

*Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects, Wall Street Journal, August 2023

*The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023, August, 2023

*Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble, Barron's, August 2023

*5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining, Business Insider, 2023

John Joseph Mearsheimer and U.S. relations with China and Russia

John Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

In his 2023 interview with the South China Morning Post, Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer stated about U.S. relations with China and Russia:

In his March 2022 interview with The New Yorker, Mearsheimer indicated:

In 2016, Mearsheimer said: "Russia was a declining great power."^[67]

Pew Research surveys: Views of the U.S. are much more positive than views of China, and increasingly so

According to Pew Research, on balance, views of the U.S. are much more positive than views of China, and increasingly so (See: Comparing Views of the U.S. and China in 24 Countries, November 6, 2023).

2018 Pew Research survey: Most countries saw the United States as the world’s leading economic power rather than China. Most countries preferred the United States as the world’s leading economic power rather than China as well

• 2018 Pew Research survey: Most countries saw the United States as the world’s leading economic power rather than China. Most countries preferred the United States as the world’s leading economic power rather than China as well

• More countries see U.S. as top global economy over China in post-COVID reversal, Axios, June 27, 2023

Why the corrupt, authoritarian regimes of China and Russia are losing their long term competitive edge relative to the USA

• Why the corrupt, authoritarian regimes of China and Russia are losing their long term competitive edge relative to the USA

Additional commentary on the USA's national debt

See also: National debt of the United States and Federal Debt Limit and the USA can reduce its national debt. It has done it before

During World War II, federal debt peaked at 106% of gross domestic product in 1946.^[68] It was not until the early 21st century that the US finally paid off its debt from World War II.[1]

It will take decades for Americans to pay off the national debt of the United States if this happens. And it will require Americans retiring later, defense budget cuts, a merit-based legal immigration system (Winning sports teams bring in the best players), and pro-growth economic policies. The failed presidency of Jimmy Carter was followed by 12 years of Republican rule. I am hoping that Joe Biden's failed presidency leads to a similar string of Republican victories. But time will tell. American economic growth will go a long way to help pay back America's national debt and today's left-leaning Democrats are a drag on the USA economy.

Watch the videos which give an overview of America's federal debt problem:

• Does National Debt Still Matter? America's Gamble, libertarian/small government view, ReasonTV

• The US Debt Situation Explained, Discusses dangers and not being super/overly concerned. Essentially argues Americans should be concerned and fix the problem, but not be panicked.

• Professor Antony Davies: Taxing the Rich Will NOT Fix The Deficit

The main reason I believe that the USA will be the preeminent power in the 21st century is other countries have even bigger problems than the USA as can be seen below. In addition, innovation and technology will be very important in the 21st century and the USA has a population that has a strong track record of innovation.

Hopefully, a future economic depression and political polarization will not cause the United States to break up in the 21st century.

For more information, please see: the USA can reduce its national debt. It has done it before

China

See also: Skepticism about China remaining a global power and It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

Currently, there is growing sentiment that China has economically peaked or will soon do so (See section below entitled "Debate: Has China peaked? Pro/con arguments"). See also: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

In 2023, Newsweek reported: Chart Shows China's Economy Losing Ground Against US.

China has:

The flag of China.

1. Hardworking people and a lot of smart people

2. Fair degree of national unity and nationalism. But as things worsen in China for the reasons given in the weaknesses of China section below, there could easily be more infighting. In 2022, the historian Niall Ferguson indicated that China's population is projected to drop by 50-75% by the end of the century.^[69]

3. Good infrastructure

4. Beginnings of the Belt and Road Initiative, although the infrastructure project has a lot of problems (See: CRUMBLING! 10 Years of China's Belt and Road Initiative).

5. A large and quickly growing Christian population. See: Growth of Christianity in China

According to Slate, "Protestant Christianity has been the fastest growing religion in China."^[70] Evangelical Christianity is especially growing sharply in China.^[71] See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity and Protestant cultural legacies

In 2020, The Economist published an article entitled Protestant Christianity is booming in China which indicated:

China's downsides:

See also: The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China

Xi Jinping

1. Bad government. The Chinese communists are godless, corrupt, short-sighted and authoritarian. A cult of personality has developed around Xi Jinping and he has eliminated all significant political opposition so now he is surrounded by yes man. So the government is calcified around Xi Jinping's thoughts and less responsive to citizens' concerns and problems. See: Chinese Communist Party and Militant atheism and China and atheism and Atheism and morality and Atheism and leadership

Corruption is so widespread in China that Wikipedia, an online encyclopedia founded by an atheist and agnostic, has an article entitled "Corruption in China".^[73] On October 20, 2019, Wikipedia's Corruption in China article indicated, "Corruption in China post-1949 refers to the abuse of political power for private ends typically by members of the Chinese Communist Party, who hold the majority of power in the People's Republic of China."^[74]

In modern history, corrupt, one-party regimes are not known for their great longevity such as lasting over 100 years and China has one-party rule - namely the Chinese Communist Party.^[75] Mint News reported that "Chinese President Xi Jinping is expressing concerns about the potential collapse of the Communist Party of China (CCP) as millions worldwide are renouncing their affiliation with the party."^[76]

On December 22, 2022, Foreign Affairs magazine noted in their article China’s Dangerous Decline "...China is teetering on the edge of a cliff. Ten years of Xi’s “reforms” — widely characterized in the West as successful power plays—have made the country frail and brittle, exacerbating its underlying problems while giving rise to new ones. ...a growing number of Western analysts—including Michael Beckley, Jude Blanchette, Hal Brands, Robert Kaplan, Susan Shirk, and Fareed Zakaria—have begun to highlight this reality..."^[77]

Videos:

• Larry Kudlow: Xi Jinping has issued 'declaration of war' against capitalism

• Xi Jinping is not concerned with the growth of the Chinese economy, says China expert Matt Pottinger

• Chinese President Xi tightens grip on authority amid fears of a return to one-man politics

• Xi Jinping In Major Line Of Fire As China's Economy Slowing Down, And Major Sectors Are Collapsing, India Today, September 2023

2. China has terrible age demographics. It has the fastest graying/aging population in the world (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series) which will severely hurt its economy (See: Atheism and fertility rates).

According to Forbes magazine, as far as the fertility rate of China: "...the Total Fertility Rate (births per woman) dropped in 2021 to just 1.15, far below the 2.1 required for a stable population."^[78] In 2022, the historian Niall Ferguson indicated that China's population is projected to drop by 50-75% by the end of the century.^[79]

3. A high percentage of uneducated people. The Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions article Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China’s Growth indicates: "The share of uneducated workers in China's labor force is larger than that of virtually all middle-income countries. According to census data, there are roughly 500 million people in China between the ages of 18 and 65 without a high school degree."^[80]

Investopedia indicates: "Education tends to raise productivity and creativity, as well as stimulate entrepreneurship and technological breakthroughs. All of these factors lead to greater output and economic growth."^[81]

Michael Beckley is an associate professor of political science at Tufts University and a Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute Beckley published the 2018 book Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower.

A Rand Corporation review of Beckley's book Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower indicates:

For more information, please see: China has a labor productivity rate that is a WHOLE LOT LOWER than the labor productivity rate of the USA

Map of China

4. Financial soundness lacking in society.

China fueled much of its economy in the past via debt-fueled projects which have had a low return on investment over the long term (ghost cities, etc.). In September of 2023, Reuters reported: "China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has doubled to a whopping 280%, opens new tab, with the bulk of liabilities held by local government financial vehicles (LGFVs)."^[83] China also has a real estate crises of a great magnitude. In addition, it has an opaque accounting system. While it is true that China has more tools than the West to address the matter of its debt crisis, too much debt is a drag on an economy no matter how the burden is distributed by its government.

After China's real estate developer giant Evergrande defaulted on its offshore debt in December 2021, it sent shockwaves through the Chinese economy.^[84]

On February 6, 2023, Yahoo Finance said concerning China's real estate crisis which began in 2020:

Since 2021, China’s stock markets have lost about $7 trillion in value.^[86] See: Chinese stock markets

China has high youth unemployment (See: Youth unemployment in China).

5. Too many inefficient state-owned enterprises

6. In addition to having a greying population with a subreplacement level of fertility, it has poor prospects to attract new people due to its repressive, surveillance/police state society. In addition, it has a population that does not like foreigners which makes immigration more difficult.

7. Besides having a poor reputation to its repressive society, it's starting to have a bad international reputation due to: debt trap projects to poor nations; wolf-warrior, aggressive foreign policy; human rights violations, unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft.

8. China is experiencing a brain drain and more people are fleeing China (See: China’s Brain Drain Threatens Its Future, Wall Street Journal, 2023 and As economy falters, more Chinese migrants take a perilous journey to the US border to seek asylum, Yahoo News, 2023

9. China appears to be stuck in the middle-income trap.

• China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap by Nouriel Roubini (economist), Project Syndicate, 2024

• With “Xinomics” Caught in a Trap, China Will Not Join the Ranks of Advanced Economies, September 2023, Nippon.com

China banned Winnie-the-Pooh because of the similarities between Winnie-the-Pooh and Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping is obese. See also: Atheism and obesity

China's major economic crisis are signs of major deflationary pressures

According to Investopedia, "Deflation is not normally bad for an economy, except when it occurs in reaction to previous over-inflation."^[87] Unfortunately for China, it has economic bubbles that are bursting in relation to its real estate and stock markets which is causing much economic hardship to many Chinese. Both of these markets had values that were highly inflated relative to their actual economic value. The Empower website notes that deflation "can lead consumers to spend less now, in part because they expect prices to continue to fall; it can push businesses to lower wages or lay off employees to maintain profit levels; and it makes existing debt more expensive for many borrowers.^[88]

Presently, communist China is facing multiple crisis with the three major crisis below being signs of growing deflationary pressures on their economy:

• Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

• Chinese stock markets crisis (Since 2021, China’s stock markets have lost about $7 trillion in value.^[89])

• Youth unemployment in China

The chance that that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining

See: The chance that that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining

China has likely peaked

China is no longer set to eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.

That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.”

Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.^[90]

See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

China has likely peaked arguments and is now in decline arguments

The January 23, 2024 South China Morning Post article China claims ‘biggest corruption in statistical sphere’ amid fake data crackdown indicates: "The accuracy of China's economic data has long been questioned, as many feel there is a gap between reality on the ground and the official figures, and Beijing has intensified efforts to crack down on data fraud in recent years amid efforts to dispel doubts."

With the above in mind, as can be seen by the below articles and videos, there is an abundant amount of evidence indicating that China's economy has likely peaked.

Articles:

• China's Economic Slump Wipes 155 Billionaires off Global Rich List, Newsweek, 2024

• China’s rise is reversing, Financial Times, November 20, 2023 (The past two years have seen the largest drop in the China’s share of global GDP since the Mao era)

• Who Killed the Chinese Economy?, Foreign Affairs, November 14, 2023, Video for article

• China’s Economic Headwinds, Cato Institute, October 10, 2023

• China’s ticking baby time bomb, corruption, debt will lead to economic collapse by Steven Mosher, September 16, 2023

• China's 19.6% youth unemployment rate is nearing a record-high and may pose 'a threat to social stability', Fortune 2023

• China's Youth Unemployment At Record Highs: Meet The Jobless Graduates, China has over 20% youth unemployment

• China Is A Dying Paper Dragon by Chet Nagle, June 21, 2023

• China’s economic malaise boils down to ‘a failure to reform’ the system, Pathfinder report warns, South China Morning Post, October 5, 2023

• Is China Past Its Peak?, Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2023

Videos:

• China Economy Disaster - Employee Shortages, Retirement Age, Birth Rate & Ageing Population, 2023

• The Four Big Structural Forces Holding Back China's Economy, Bloomberg Podcast

• Why China Is on the Brink of Its Biggest Crisis in Decades, VisualEconomik EN

• China has a multitude of economic problems right now: China strategist, Bloomberg, August 28, 2023

Why China's likely prolonged economic malaise will probably be much worse than Japan's lost decades

See also: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

Japan suffered 30 years of economic mailaise. See: Japan's lost decades - 1990s to 2010s

And while Japan's long financial malaise was bad, China's will be much worse (See: Japan's Recession Was Bad. China's Will Be So Much Worse)

The company China Beige Book International describes its company thusly:

Due to China's ongoing real estate crisis, there have been many sensationalist doom and gloom forecasts about China's future economic prospects. On the other hand, China's Beige Book International has been very judicious and measured in its economic forecasts. The company previously argued that China's economy hasn't peaked, but it no longer argues this.

In October 2023, Leland Miller, who is the CEO of China Beige Book International, now argues that we are in a new paradigm about China's future economy due to structural problems and "Right now we are in a period where everything is looking pretty bad."^[92]

Japan experienced economic malaise from the 1990s to 2010s (see: Japan's lost decades - 1990s to 2010s).

On October 19, 2023, Reuters reported:

And while Japan's long financial malaise was bad, China's will be much worse (See: Japan's Recession Was Bad. China's Will Be So Much Worse).

Skepticism about China remaining a global power

See also: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

A number of leading geopolitical analysts are skeptical about China remaining a global power as is faces a number of serious intractable problems (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power). On December 22, 2022, Foreign Affairs magazine noted in their article China’s Dangerous Decline "...China is teetering on the edge of a cliff. Ten years of Xi’s “reforms” — widely characterized in the West as successful power plays—have made the country frail and brittle, exacerbating its underlying problems while giving rise to new ones. ...a growing number of Western analysts—including Michael Beckley, Jude Blanchette, Hal Brands, Robert Kaplan, Susan Shirk, and Fareed Zakaria — have begun to highlight this reality..."^[94]

For more information, please see: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

How long will China's one-party, communist state last?

• The Chinese Communist Party is on the verge of turning today's China into yesterday's Soviet Union, Le Monde, 2024

• Xi Jinping raises concerns over potential collapse of Chinese Communist Party: Report, Mint News, July 2023.

• China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?, Australian Broadcasting Company, 2020

India giving China increased economic competition. India's military cooperation with the United States while also maintaining autonomy

Flag of India

India giving China increased economic competition

• India—China: Reversal of fortunes?, Brooking Institution, 2023

• India’s technology competition with China, Brookings Institution, 2023

• How India and China compete in non-aligned South Asia and the Indian Ocean, Brookings Institution, 2023

India's military cooperation with the United States while also maintaining autonomy

• India Dismisses Chinese Objections to India-US Military Drills Near Border, December 2022

• Engagement, not Entanglement: India’s Relationship with the Quad, Georgetown University, 2023

• Strategic Autonomy and U.S.-Indian Relations, Heritage Foundation, 2020

Russia

The flag of Russia

See also: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

Russia strengths:

1. It has national unity with high nationalism/patriotism.

However, there is social science data that indicates that Russians overestimate their influence on world history.^[95] See: [[Essay: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Role in World History|We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Role in World History]

"Russians, for example, estimated that their country was responsible for 61% of world history." - Source: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528

2. A lot of oil and gas. However, in August of 2023, the United States was outproducing Russia in oil production (See: The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come).

3. A lot of smart people

4. Produces a lot of wheat and agricultural products

5. "Russian President Vladimir Putin is laying claim to 1.2 million square kilometers in the Arctic. His main objectives appear to be the colonization of the Arctic and of the North Pole. It’s a project more than 20 years in the making. This area, which remains virtually unexploited, is one of the last El Dorados on the planet. The subsoil is full of oil, gas, rare earths and precious minerals like gold, uranium, and copper. With... the melting of the ocean’s ice, these riches are now more accessible, fueling the greed of major Western powers. But in this conquest of the Arctic, Russia already has a head start. For years, the country has been equipped with gigantic nuclear-powered icebreakers, which have been used to help navigate the icy waters surrounding the North Pole. In addition, Vladimir Putin has invested in extraordinary industrial projects. One such project is an enormous gas processing plant anchored in the permafrost; another is the construction of an incredible floating nuclear power plant intended to supply energy to Pevek, a small, isolated port north of the polar circle. These are but a few examples of the Russian leader’s flagship projects, in this new conquest of the Arctic." - Putin's advances in the Arctic | DW Documentary

6. Russia did pass some laws forbidding the promoting of homosexuality.^[96][97] See: How anti-homosexuality is Russia? Are there countries that are more anti-homosexuality and more family-friendly?

However, according to the website Russia Today, being gay is not a crime in Russia and homosexuality was decriminalized in 1993.^[98]

According to Statista.com, as far as homosexuality/LGBTQ, 40% of Russians are emotionally ambivalent; friendly; interested, or indicate that it is hard to say how they feel/think about homosexuality (See: Russian Attitudes Toward LGBT Persons in 2021 - Statista.com). If you look at man in the street interviews in Russia, there are a variety of people's views on homosexuality (See: What RUSSIANS think about LGBT? and What Russians think about LGBT? and Do you hate LGBT? 100 Russians). On the other hand, in 2016, openly homosexual men holding hands and walking through Russia in public laws do get pushback from some people (See: This is what it's like to be gay in Russia, The Independent, 2016)

7. Some positive things in pre-Soviet Russian civilization that continue to this day (chess, ballet, etc.).

Russia's downsides:

1. Lack of good governance. Lots of corruption and an authoritarian government with the Kremlin surrounded by big walls. Russia has a long history of corruption. Vladimir Putin's corruption is not some surprising fact of history (See: Corruption in Russia: A Historical Perspective). See: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

2. There are some Russians with traditional Russian Orthodox ideas (Although attendance at Russian Orthodox Churches appears to be very low.^[99][100]). At the same time, there is a significant portion who do not hold traditional values and Russia has the 3rd highest divorce rate in the world (See: Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world).

In several notable and important ways, Russia is not conservative (See: Russia is not a conservative country).

The 2021 LegitRuss Survey indicates that Russians aren't very conservative as indicated by:

3. Russia's fertility rate of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.^[102] It's fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.^[102] And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.^[102] See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

Russia will go out swinging (Ukraine, etc.), but its age demographics (which is among the worst in the world in terms of an aging population) and other problems will cause a cultural collapse in Russia in the 21st century (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series). See: Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia

Russian emigration from Russia is significant:

• Why are people leaving Russia, who are they, and where are they going?, BBC, June 2023

Russia, fertility rate and demographics videos:

• Demographics of the Orthodox Christain world by Peter Zeihan
• Russia's Demographic Crisis Explained - TLDR News
• Updates on Russian Demographics

The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse (See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse).

Other articles related to the war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse:

• Russia Facing Population Disaster - Demographic Crisis, Employee Shortages & Economic Crisis
• Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die, The Telegraph, February 2023

For more information, please see:

• Russia's 'catastrophic' missing men problem, The Week, 2023
• Russia’s population shrinks and China’s ages, Shifting demographics are posing unprecedented challenges for China and Russia, 2023

During his annual phone-in with the public in 2019, President Vladimir Putin described low productivity as “one of the most acute and important” problems facing Russia.^[103]

4. According to the Moscow Times: "During his annual phone-in with the public in June this year, President Vladimir Putin described low productivity as “one of the most acute and important” problems facing Russia."^[104] See: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia

In addition, Russia's labor quality is getting worse and its future prospects of improving are poor (See: Russia's economy is that of a shrinking, aging, and poorly qualified population).

5. Russia has a significant labor shortage (See: Russia's labor shortage).

The Center for European Policy Analysis reported on March 9, 2024: "Towards the end of last year, experts from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences estimated that Russia faced a shortfall of nearly 5 million workers in 2023, which is already impeding economic growth. The total workforce is a little under 74 million."^[105]

6. Compared to many countries, Russia is uncompetitive when it comes to innovation.^[106][107] See:Russia is far behind the USA and China as far as innovation and Russia's ability to innovate is likely going to get worse

In 2023, Russia was ranked 51st in the world as far as the Global Innovation Index.^[108] According the Global Innovation Index: "In 2023, global innovation index for Russian Federation was 33.31 index. Global innovation index of Russian Federation fell gradually from 39.14 index in 2014 to 33.31 index in 2023." (A score of 0 is the weakest a country can obtain).^[109]

7. Russia's poor business climate. See: Russia's unfriendly business environment

The Kennan Institute indicates concerning Russia's unfriendly business environment:

Many small businesses work in their businesses and Russian small and medium business people are burdened with a lot of pointless regulations to deal with.

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

8. Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline and the war in Ukraine is having a negative effect on its economy

The Russia-Ukraine War is hurting the Russian economy (See also: The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will significantly hurt the Russian economy).

Russia's inflation problem:

• In wartime Russia, soaring prices bite as election looms, Reuters, November 16, 2023

• Russia to hike rates to 14% as inflation pressure remains high: Reuters poll, Reuters, October 2023

• Why is Inflation Rising In Russia?, TLDU News EU, 2023 - video

• Vladimir Putin says that inflation in Russia is making it 'practically impossible' for businesses to plan, Business Insider, 2023

Russia's declining rubble problem:

• RUSSIAN Ruble Collapse Continues - Russia Increases CAPITAL CONTROLS on Sale of Western Assets

• Russia’s economy proved resilient last year. Now the pain is setting in – the collapsing ruble says so, The Globe and Mail, August 19, 2023

Negative impact of the war in Ukraine on Russia's economy:

• ‘It’s guns versus butter’: Russia's war chest empties. Kremlin's fortunes crumble as oil profits plunge and the workforce flees conscription

You can't spread a AK-12 assault rifle on bread! Or put it in a cake! This war in Ukraine is going to be a pyrrhic victory for Putin/Russia - especially given its subreplacement fertility rate and the fact that it has one of the worst demographics in the world. See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

• The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy

Russia's share of the world's economy is expected to shrink by 2028:

The article Is Russia the World’s 5th Largest Economy in GDP, PPP? indicates:

Russian 100 ruble currency note

Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:

*Russian ruble slides to 16-month low against U.S. dollar as capital flight, shrinking trade surplus bite, Marketwatch, August 14, 2023

*Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects, Wall Street Journal, August 2023

*The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023, August, 2023

*Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble, Barron's, August 2023

*5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining, Business Insider, 2023

Chart of the currency exchange between the Russian ruble to dollars from December 5, 2003 to August 26, 2023

9. Russia's economy is not highly diversified. It is too dependent on oil and gas.^[112] See: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines and The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come

Newsweek's November 23, 2023 article Russian Economy About to 'Hit the Ice,' Putin Ally Warns states:

Russian oil: Lower future production and lower future profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

See also: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

In 2023, OilPrice.com reported in an article entitled Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035:

For the full article, see: Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035, OilPrice.com, 2023

• The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End, Stratfor, 2023

• A long-term outlook on Russian oil industry facing internal and external challenges, 2019 journal abstract

• The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term, Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, 2019 (Abstract for the article)

Videos:

• How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry? - 2023 Video

• Russian Oil's Vanishing Act - 2023 video

• Crumbling Infrastructure in the Russian Taiga - 2023 video

Russia crude oil extraction cost March 2005 to December 2018:

For more information, please read: The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End, Stratfor, 2023

"Russia's easily accessible oil reserves have long been the cornerstone of its economy. But these conventional fields are depleting, leading to the need to invest and expand into more untapped sources. This transformation will not be easy or cheap, as various factors have led to a poorly optimized oil sector that's ill-equipped to soften the blow of rising costs... Russia may have little choice but to accept that its glory days of oil dominance and high profit margins are nearing an end." - The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End, Stratfor, 2023

Russia crude oil extraction cost March 2005 to December 2018^[115]

Russia's crude oil extraction cost affects how much profit Russia can earn from Russian oil sales. In addition, it can affect the potential amount of Russian oil drilling because if oil is too costly to extract in a given area, the drilling will not occur.

Russia's oil extraction cost are expected to rise in the future. See: The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End, Stratfor, 2023

For more information, please see: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas:

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas. China's economy is having significant problems compared to its past. If China's economy gets worse (And there is some evidence that China's future economy will may worse this decade and beyond), that is going to hurt the Russian economy. See: Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

"Even the act of diverting supplies to Asia entails a significant reduction in Russian companies’ profit margins. It costs a lot more to transport oil to Asian markets than to Europe, and there is not much spare transport capacity, which pushes up the cost of freight, reducing the profit made by Russian companies, whatever the amount at which the price is capped.

The price cap also enables Asian buyers to obtain big discounts on Russian oil. China and India may not officially be enforcing the cap, but it’s hard to imagine that companies from those countries will not use it to barter the price down. Indeed, this is already happening: some shipments to China due to be loaded onto tankers in January were sold at $5–6 cheaper per barrel than usual."^[116]

• Russian oil and gas budget revenues almost halved in the first half of 2023, Reuters, 2023

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy.

Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas.^[117]

Trump has Putin ‘over a barrel’ with aggressive energy policy, defense of the West, CNBC, 2017

Donald Trump had Vladimir Putin ‘over a barrel’ with his aggressive energy policy.^[118]

It is just a matter of time before another Republican president will be elected in the USA.

Unfortunately for Russia, it does not have a well-diversified economy.

Countries with diversified economies are more resilient and stable:

Booz & Company was a global strategy consulting team established in the United States in 1914. The firm was acquired by PwC on April 4, 2014.

Below is the executive summary of their report entitled Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification

Related articles:

• The Importance Of A Diversified Economy

• Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification

Every year, 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.^[120]

10. It's poor state of public health (see: Healthcare in Russia and Understanding Russia’s Healthcare System). Many of its men are alcoholics. Every year, 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.^[121] This is likely a cultural legacy of the atheistic Soviet Union. See: Atheism and alcoholism

11. Morale is low in the country compared to many countries and there is much unhappiness (See: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?).

12. Much of its land is in cold, inhospitable areas (Areas that often lack modern conveniences such as indoor plumbing.^[122]).

13. Poor prospects to attract new people. In addition, many wealthy people and young men have fled Russia (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series).

14. Russia is bogged down in a war in Ukraine which is increasingly hurting Rusia's economy (See: Russian war economy is overheating on a powder keg, Reuters, 2023).

15. It is currently a pariah state in the West with many sanctions against it. And many Western corporations pulled out of Russia. Russia may have to resign itself to selling much of its oil/gas in the future at a discount and lower profit margin to countries in the Eastern World such as India and China (I expect the USA to ramp up its oil and gas production in the future via some Republican presidents, but Democrat presidents will cause somewhat of a drag on this process.).

16. State of religion in Russia

In 2022, it was reported that attendance at Russian Orthodox Church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.^[123]

Also, according to a 2019 report "Using data from surveys carried out by the Higher School of Economics in Moscow in 2018, the sociologist Yana Roshchina worked out that while almost 81 percent of adult Russians consider themselves Orthodox, this is often a declaration of identity rather than faith. Just 6 percent of the population and 43 percent of believers go to church several times a month. According to Interior Ministry statistics, 4.3 million people across the country attended Easter services in 2019 – around 100,000 fewer than a year before."^[124]

Pew Research reported in 2017: "Relatively few Orthodox or Catholic adults in Central and Eastern Europe say they regularly attend worship services, pray often or consider religion central to their lives. For example, a median of just 10% of Orthodox Christians across the region say they go to church on a weekly basis."^[125]

Also, there is the issue of Russia's persecution of Russian Protestants (See: Why Russia's religious persecution of Russian Protestants is not good for Russia).

17. According to US Department of State in 2017,^[126] Muslims in Russia numbered 14 million or roughly 10% of the total population. Historically speaking, at 10% of the population, Muslims cause problems in society (See: What Islam Isn't - Dr. Peter Hammond).

18. Russia faces shrinking middle class, rising inequality, study finds":

"Russia's middle class will shrink as social inequality grows over coming years, an economic study conducted by Russian experts suggested, as sanctions against Moscow and limited growth potential scupper development prospects...

Russia's economy proved unexpectedly resilient in the face of tough Western sanctions last year, but a return to pre-conflict levels of prosperity may be far off as more government spending is directed towards the military.

The study's most optimistic scenario sees real incomes exceeding 2021 levels by around 2% in 2030 and poverty dropping below 10% from 11.8% in 2022. In that scenario, the size of the middle class would still drop to 14%-31% by 2030 from current estimates of 20%-50%."

19. Russia is experiencing a large brain drain

• Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's, Business Insider, September 2023

• Russia's economy faces a 'massive brain drain' as over 1 million young workers exit labor force, Markets Insider, 2023

• The Great Russian Brain Drain, Novaya Gazeta Europe, 2023

• As Russia sees tech brain drain, other nations hope to gain, Associated Press, 2022

Demographic projections of Russia's future population

See also: Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia

Map of Russia. Approximately 7% of Russia's land is arable and suitable for agricultural production.

Shortly before the pandemic broke out in 2020 Vladimir Putin stated: "Russia's destiny and its historical prospects depend on one thing: how many of us there are and how many of us there will be."^[127]

Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.^[102] And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.^[102]

The Jamestown Foundation's 2022 article Russia’s Demographic Collapse Is Accelerating notes:

The journalist Isabelle Khurshudyan's 2020 article In Siberian coal country, signs of Russia’s shrinking population are everywhere. It ‘haunts’ Putin. notes:

Bloomberg News reported on October 18, 2022:

Russia’s population nightmare is going to get even worse, 2023

The war in Ukraine has aggravated a crisis that long predates the conflict. See:Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia

Russia's demographic crisis and its state of public health

See also: Russia's HIV/AIDS epidemic

Adam Gwiazda's article Demographic crisis in Russia states:

Russia's low fertility rate, aging population, projected working population and its potential impact on its economy

Russian woman in a dress.

Russia's population is expected to age significantly over the next few decades.^[132]

See also: Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia

The World Bank's article Searching for a New Silver Age in Russia: The Drivers and Impacts of Population Aging states:

An excerpt from the abstract for the 2016 journal article Aging in Russia published in the journal The Gerontologist states:

Major reasons why Russia is a country in decline

• Russian Power in Decline by Nicholas Eberstadt, August 2022
• Russian Power in Decline: A Demographic and Human Resource Perspective by Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute, August 2022 (Includes graphs and footnotes)

For more information, please see:

• Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse
• Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia

Dinesh D'Souza

Dinesh D'Souza on a world without America: Lecture and film documentary

• Amherst College Full Event: Dinesh D'Souza On A World Without America

Dinesh D'Souza's film documentary: America: Imagine The World Without Her

• Dinesh D'Souza's film documentary: America: Imagine The World Without Her

Dinesh D'Souza's book What's So Great About America

See: What's So Great About America

American greatness and American culture

• American Greatness and American Culture, Dennis Prager at Hillsdale College
• America's Greatness Explained By An Immigrant
• American Greatness
• Dinesh D'Souza Powerfully Argues For American Greatness In Explosive Debate
• Absolute PROOF of America’s Greatness! | Mike Huckabee
• Ronald Reagan Patriotic Speech

Quotes

George Washington, Chief of the Continental Army, is shown crossing the Delaware River.

• "America is another name for opportunity" - Ralph Waldo Emerson

• “Where liberty dwells, there is my country.” — Benjamin Franklin

• “I only regret that I have but one life to lose for my country.” — Nathan Hale

• “One flag, one land, one heart, one hand, one nation evermore!” — Oliver Wendell Holmes

• “Duty, honor, country. Those three hallowed words reverently dictate what you ought to be, what you can be, what you will be.” — Douglas MacArthur

• “We’re blessed with the opportunity to stand for something—for liberty and freedom and fairness. And these are things worth fighting for, worth devoting our lives to.” — Ronald Reagan

• “I say to you that our goal is freedom, and I believe we are going to get there, because however much she strays away from it, the goal of America is freedom.” — Martin Luther King Jr.

"The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults." - French historian and politician Alexis de Tocqueville

Statue of Nathan Hale in City Hall Park, New York City

“I only regret that I have but one life to lose for my country.” - Nathan Hale

The citizens of the United States are happier than the citizens of Russia and China

See: The citizens of the United States are happier than the citizens of Russia and China

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." - United States Constitution

According to the World Happines Index, the citizens of the United States are happier than the citizens of Russia.^[135][136]

For more information, please see: The citizens of the United States are happier than the citizens of Russia and China

Why has the West been so successful?

See also: Why has the West been so successful?

In the above map, the Western World regions of the world are colored light blue.

There are countries in Asia that have adopted much of Western values such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

The above graphic comes from the video Why the West Won’t Collapse with Stephen Kotkin (Stephen Kotkin is an American historian, academic, and author.)

For more information, please see: Why has the West been so successful?

Europe

The decline of Europe

See also: Decline of Europe

Europe is in decline and will remain so for some time (See: Decline of Europe).

Europe, which is less religious than a majority of the world, has a subreplacement level of births, is projected to have a population that is 30% less smaller by the end of the century (see: Atheism and fertility rates).^[137]

In 2014, the Pew Research Forum indicated that Europe will go from 11% of the world's population to 7% of the world's population by 2050.^[138]

Hope for Europe slowing down or reversing its decline

• Growth of evangelical Christianity in secular Europe
• European desecularization in the 21st century

The United States adopting more social conservatism and becoming more religious in the future

See also: United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics

Post 1950s, the USA has experienced some decline (Divorce rate increase, increase in fatherless homes, high federal government debt, the sexual revolution, etc.).

On July 24, 2019, due to religious immigration to the United States and the higher fertility rate of religious people, Eric Kaufmann wrote in an article entitled Why Is Secularization Likely to Stall in America by 2050? A Response to Laurie DeRose: "Overall, the picture suggests that the U.S. will continue to secularize in the coming decades. However, a combination of religious immigration, immigrant religious retention, slowing religious decline due to a rising prevalence of believers among the affiliated, and higher native religious birth rates will result in a plateauing of secularizing trends by mid-century." ^[139]

Steve Turley

Steve Turley wrote:

Recommended books

Ben Carson, M.D. wrote the book America the Beautiful: Rediscovering What Made This Nation Great.

• Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower by Michael Beckley, Cornell University Press; Unabridged edition (September 15, 2018)
• Beyond Biden: Rebuilding the America We Love by Newt Gingrich, Center Street (November 2, 2021)
• America the Beautiful: Rediscovering What Made This Nation Great by Ben Carson, M.D. and Candy Carson, ‎Zondervan; Reprint edition (November 17, 2015)
• Power and Willpower in the American Future: Why the United States Is Not Destined to Decline, First Edition, Cambridge University Press; First Edition (April 9, 2012)
• What's So Great About America by Dinesh D'Souza, Regnery Pub; First Edition (April 24, 2002)
• A is for America by Devin Scillian and Pam Carroll, Sleeping Bear Press; First Edition (May 1, 2001)
• America the Beautiful: A Story in Photographs by National Geographic, ‎National Geographic (October 20, 2020)
• God Bless America Again by Allen Jackson, Intend Publishing (October 1, 2020)
• Poems of American Patriotism by Brander Matthews, ‎Bibliotech Press (January 9, 2023)

Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

Raymond Dalio is an American billionaire investor and hedge fund manager.

• Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio -2022 (Ray Dahlio has some good ideas, but he is inconsistent when it comes to China^[141])

Summary

The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.

Also, please note: All empires/countries eventually fade in power, fall or break up. The essay is not titled "The United States will be the leading power in the world forever" nor is it titled "The United States will be the leading power in the world until Jesus returns".

In addition, leading powers do experience difficult times and if they have enough resiliency, they bounce back from difficult times. For example, the United States went through the American Civil War and the Great Depression.

The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.

Neil Armstrong, First Man on the Moon - Apollo 11 mission, July 20, 1969

John F. Kennedy demonstrated the fact that when a person or group is dedicated to achieving a difficult goal, it can often be done - especially with the assistance of others.

Watch the video: Charles A. Garfield and Peak Performance (1985) by Charles A. Garfield (Related to insights gathered from the Apollo 11 mission)

User Conservative's international relations essays

General

"Give me liberty, or give me death!" - Patrick Henry

• The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?
• The so-called multipolar world is often mere Chinese propaganda and public relations
• Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?
• What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?
• Why has the West been so successful?
• Slow and steady growth over the long term via capitalism and the rule of law versus short-sighted authoritarian economic growth that is costly to the long term economy
• December 2021 was a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come
• American and Western triumphalism or a realistic appraisal of world affairs?
• Attention anti-American hyper Russophiles/Sinophiles. Time is not on your side
• The 2023 BRICS Summit was a bunch of hoopla. We still don't live in a multipolar world.
• The anti-Christianity Mao Zedong, Fidel Castro, Joseph Stalin and Xi Jinping have opposed homosexuality so this isn't a very high moral bar for China and Russia to clear

The United States

• The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia
• The USA is more innovative and productive than China and Russia
• Why the corrupt, authoritarian regimes of China and Russia are losing their long term competitive edge relative to the USA
• Is the USA an economic powerhouse and juggernaut?
• Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world
• Top 12 reasons why people are flocking to the USA and leaving the corrupt, authoritarian countries of China and Russia
• Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?
• The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come
• The USA can reduce its national debt. It has done it before
• The citizens of the United States are happier than the citizens of Russia and China. USA! USA! USA!
• The U.S. Navy is the most powerful navy in the world
• Gold reserves by country. The USA is still golden!
• The genius of the founding fathers of the United States, happiness and labor productivity
• Attention all hyper Sinophiles/Russophiles. The USA being better than China and Russia is an incredibly low bar for Americans to jump over!
• Why I am glad that Conservapedia has an American flag in its logo rather than a Chinese or Russian flag
• The USA will become bigger, better and stronger than ever before! Russia and China will not! USA! USA! USA! - Humor

China

• Skepticism about China remaining a global power
• It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy
• The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China
• December 2021 was a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come

Russia

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

• Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

• Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

• Russia is not a conservative country

• Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia

• Russia's labor shortage

• Russia is far behind the USA and China as far as innovation and Russia's ability to innovate is likely going to get worse

• We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Role in World History (Covers the notion of Russian exceptionalism)

• Does Russia have more national narcissism than the USA? How exceptional do Russians think their nation is?

• How anti-homosexuality is Russia? Are there countries that are more anti-homosexuality and more family-friendly?

• Vladimir Putin's foolish decision to launch an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022

• Russian war crimes in Ukraine

• Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

• Russia's neo-Nazi problem belies one of Putin's rationales for the war in Ukraine

• Russia has the 2nd highest rate of alcoholism in the world

• Russia's HIV/AIDS epidemic

• The future of Russia. The kings of wishful thinking versus a more realistic scenario

• Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

• Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about

• China's economic decline will contribute to Russia's decline

• Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines

• The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will significantly hurt the Russian economy

• Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline

• Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?

• Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world

• Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?

• Is Vladimir Putin a manchild or a macho genius?

• Search results for "Russia demographics crisis" using the Russian search engine Yandex and Google Scholar. Fanatical Russophiles weep for Mother Russia who has a low fertility rate that is far below a replacement level of births

• Do you strongly believe in gun rights? Don't move to Russia!

• Nordsteam pipelines being sabotaged and Putin failing to play politics several moves ahead on the politics chess board

• Doomsday phobias - including nucleomituphobia caused by Russian threats to use a nuclear bomb

• Russian Statistics Service indicates that 22.6 percent of Russian households aren't connected to a sewer system

• America's sewage system is better than Russia's TERRIBLE sewage system

War in Ukraine

• How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes
• The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years

Patriotic songs about America

The North American bison is the national mammal of the United States.^[142]

• Patriotic songs about America

User: Conservative's other essays

• User:Conservative's essays

Humor:

• The USA will become bigger, better and stronger than ever before! Russia and China will not! USA! USA! USA!

See also

• Forecast

• Economic forecasting

• Political forecasting

External links

The bald eagle has been the national bird of the United States since 1782.^[143]

Bald eagles, like other eagles worldwide, are seen as symbols of strength, courage, and freedom. And, unlike other eagles, the bald eagle is indigenous only to North America.^[144]

• The myth of American decline by John Nye, iai News, 2024
• USA – the unstoppable juggernaut?, 2023
• What makes the US economy so resilient?, The Hill, 2023
• Fresh Growth Numbers Are Set to Show US Remains Economic Powerhouse, Bloomberg News, 2023
• USA: The Most Powerful Country in the World, Nomad Capitalist
• Will the US Be Weaker in 2050 than Today?, American Enterprise Institute, April 2023
• SWOT analysis of the USA (U.S. SWOT analysis) (SWOT is an acronym for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats)
• Ben Shapiro Explains Why the U.S. Is the Greatest Country in the World - video

China related:

• China economy overtaking U.S. is increasingly unlikely, Newsweek, 2024
• China challenging US superpower status is ‘not inevitable’, says Xi Jinping, Mint News, 2023
• Strongman economics aren't working for China and Russia, Axios website, August 15, 2023
• More see U.S. as top global economy over China in post-COVID reversal, Axios, June 2023
• Russia’s population shrinks and China’s ages, Shifting demographics are posing unprecedented challenges for China and Russia, April 2023
• Why China’s Bid To Become A Superpower Is Doomed To Failure, Forbes, August 2023
• The Decline of Russia and China, 2022 video featuring George Friedman at the U.S. Naval Institute

Additional resource:

• World's Top Economies, Investopedia

References