Difference between revisions of "Liberal triumphalism"

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During [[World War II]], federal debt peaked at 106% of gross domestic product in 1946.<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/27/this-is-not-your-grandfathers-debt-problem/ This is not your grandfather’s debt problem] By Eugene Steuerle, Washington Post, 2020</ref>  
 
During [[World War II]], federal debt peaked at 106% of gross domestic product in 1946.<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/27/this-is-not-your-grandfathers-debt-problem/ This is not your grandfather’s debt problem] By Eugene Steuerle, Washington Post, 2020</ref>  
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US government interest payments per day doubled from $1bn per day before the [[covid pandemic]] to almost $2bn per day in 2023.
  
 
It will take decades for Americans to pay off the [[national debt of the United States]] if this happens. And it will require Americans retiring later, controlling defense budget costs, a merit-based legal [[immigration]] system,, and sound growth economic policies.  The failed presidency of Jimmy Carter was followed by 12 years of Republican rule.
 
It will take decades for Americans to pay off the [[national debt of the United States]] if this happens. And it will require Americans retiring later, controlling defense budget costs, a merit-based legal [[immigration]] system,, and sound growth economic policies.  The failed presidency of Jimmy Carter was followed by 12 years of Republican rule.

Revision as of 10:25, April 16, 2024

First tranche of NATO enlargement signing ceremony. From left to right: accused of war crimes in the Kosovo war, Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton, and Joe Biden.[1]

Liberal triumphalism is the belief that the United States won the Cold War, in a unipolar rules based order dictated from Washington, D.C. nullifying agreements that created the United Nations Security Council to oversee international relations in the post-World War II era, and that the United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future (See Liberal World Order). It also goes by the jingoistic phrase American exceptionalism. In actuality, the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) lost its grip on Russian society internally, of its own accord, in its long running 70+ year ideological and spiritual dispute with the Russian Orthodox Church. NATO and the Russian or Soviet military never met one-on-one, face-to-face on the battlefield. The Church defeated Soviet communism, not liberalism. Liberalism, in its turn during the unipolar moment, abdicated the moral responsibilities of global leadership,[2] turning instead to decadence and pushing the homosexual agenda as "democratic values" and "human rights" on a global scale.

Advocates of liberal triumphalism base their claims on the United States having:

1. Ocean moats,[3] two big oceans and a friendly northern neighbor with a big land mass to help protect it. Additionally, the United States ability to project military power abroad.

2. Abundant natural resources. See: U.S. Natural Resources. The United States is one of the world’s leading producers of energy,[4] behind Russia.

3. The United States is a highly developed mixed-socialist and market economy,[5] and according to some measures, has the world's largest nominal GDP. Additionally, in advanced economies, there is a high correlation between the size of a country's working-age population and its GNP. Rather than natural increase,[6] the United States has opted to increase its working population through legal and illegal immigration over time as it has open borders to attract working-age immigrants.[7]

Theoretically (see liberal claptrap) a highly diverse economy can better weather various shocks that adversely affects various sectors of an economy (See: The Importance Of A Diversified Economy and Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification). The Hill indicates the USA's economy "is highly diversified. The five largest industries, which account for about two-thirds of GDP, are dispersed. This lessens the impact of a shock on the overall economy because some industries fare better than others. It is the basis for the argument that the U.S. economy is experiencing a 'rolling recession.'" (A rolling recession is a situation in which only some industries shrink while the overall economy manages to stay above water).[8] The USA was the most economically diverse economy in the world from 2000 to 2021 according to Global Economic Diverse Index (In other words, not having too many eggs in a small amount of baskets).[9] The USA was among the 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website (Diversified in terms of industry sectors).[10]

Contents

4. An above-average constitution with a separation of powers, a bill of rights and the electoral college system that supposedly gives rural people influence (See voter fraud and DC gulag). And because the U.S. Constitution establishes a federal system, its state governments enjoy extensive authority.[11][12]

Please see the videos:

Research indicates that in the long-term, non-authoritarian countries are more likely to experience greater economic growth. See: Time Under Authoritarian Rule and Economic Growth, CORI Working Paper No. 2007-02. Additionally, there is research indicating that economies disrupted by political turmoil/unrest grow at an average rate 2 percentage points slower than those that are untroubled, with a persistent lag in the growth rate of 1 to 2 percentage points in the succeeding year.[13][14] (See Bidenomics and Biden recession).

2018 map of the collective West and "LGBT acceptance". The countries marjked in red arrows resisted Russian sanctions after 2022.

5. A declining Christian population (see: Christianity and social stability). The percentage of Americans who consider themselves regular members of a house of worship was 47% in 2020 compared to 73% in 1937, the first year the Gallup Poll asked the question. [15] In 2020, the percentage of Americans who claimed to have no religious preference was 21%, a sharp increase from just 20 years prior when only 8% of Americans said they were without a religious affiliation. A Pew Research Center study found that about 30% of Americans are considered “nones,” which comprise a compilation of atheists, agnostics, or the predominant crowd signified as “nothing in particular.”[16]

6. Many innovative people per capita (See: USA still patent Superpower – But China is catching up fast, 2020). The USA is one of the largest consumer markets of the world and U.S. inventors receive less than half of U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patents.[17]

Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the world’s most innovative economies in 2023, according to WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), as a group of middle-income economies have emerged over the past decade as the fastest climbers of the ranking according to this measurement.[18][19][20]

On September 27, 2023, the fake news site Yahoo Finance reported in their news article about the U.S. economy and artificial intelligence (AI): Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing: "Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing...".[21] According to Goldman Sachs, generative AI could increase global GDP by 7%.[22]

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, a frequent critic of U.S. foreign policy, praised American openness, open-mindedness and creativity: "I like the creativity. Creativity when it comes to tackling your country's problems. They're openness. Openness and open-mindedness. Because it allows them to unleash the inner potential of their people. And because of that America has achieved such amazing results."[23]

7. A younger population relative to other developed countries and lots of illegal immigrants from around the world. According to neocon propagandist Peter Zeihan, both the USA and New Zealand have a unique and favorable demographic in terms of age relative to other developed countries (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series).

Economist F.A. Hayek warned against Keynesian economics and how it would lead to fascism in his seminal 1945 tract, The Road to Serfdom. See Fascism and the New Deal.

8. Keynesian economics and deficit spending. In terms of the Labor productivity, the U.S. labor market is in line with those of other developed countries.[24] The Hill cites the U.S. Commerce Dept. Bureau of Economic Analysis:

“ ...the U.S. labor force is highly flexible. During the two oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s, there were large migrations of workers out of the Rust Belt and into the Sun Belt. Thereafter, labor mobility lessened as this migration ran its course. However, when the COVID-19 pandemic struck and workers lost their jobs or became housebound, many became self-employed and entered the gig workforce.

This is testimony to the rapid expansion of the digital economy in America. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that as of 2018, it accounted for 9.0 percent of GDP and 5.7 percent of jobs. It is the fastest-growing sector since 2006, with an average annual growth rate of 6.8 percent, or four times more than the overall economy.[25]

”

According to Wikipedia and the World Bank, the United States is a "high-income economy".[26] A high-income economy is defined as a country that has a gross national income per capita of US$13,845 or more in 2022 that is calculated using the Atlas method (The Atlas method, employed by the World Bank since 1993, is used to approximate the economic size of nations in terms of their gross national income (GNI) in U.S. dollars.).[27] China and Russia are upper middle-income countries.[28][29]

According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country... The United States has one of the strongest economies in the world. The country hosts some of the largest companies in the world, which contributes to the high GDP per capita in the country. In 2022, the United States recorded a GDP per capita of $76,399."[30]

Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption. As an economy's labor productivity grows, it produces more goods and services for the same amount of relative work. This increase in output makes it possible to consume more of the goods and services for an increasingly reasonable price."[31]

According to the website of the International Labour Organization (ILO),[32] a spinoff of the Second Socialist International, founded in 1919 and now a UN agency, the USA was over 400% more productive in terms of labor productivity than China in 2023 when measured using purchasing power parity.[33][34] The same veteran communist front organization rated the USA over 200% more productive in 2023 in terms of labor productivity than Russia when measured using purchasing power parity.[35][36]

9. STEM programs[37] in universities based upon Darwinism.

10. The Hill notes concerning U.S. multinational corporations: "U.S. multinationals are also very dynamic and global leaders. What stands out is how the largest companies ranked by market capitalization have changed over time. Today, U.S. multinational corporations dominate the rankings: Four of the five largest companies in the world — Apple, Inc. ($3 trillion), Microsoft ($2.4 trillion), Alphabet ($1.7 trillion) and Amazon.com ($1.4 trillion) — are headquartered in the U.S., and only five in the top 20 are outside the U.S."[38] "Headquartered in the U.S.", yes, but how many people do they actually employ in the U.S. to create jobs and wealth for American citizens compared to how much per capita wealth they take out of the U.S. in profits, and to employ people in foreign countries in manufacturing? See: Globalism.

The political scientist Joseph Nye's 2004 book describing the concept of "soft power".

Nye popularized the concept of soft power in the Reagan era which aided in the collapse of the Soviet Union without military intervention. Warmongers like Hillary Rodham Clinton complained about the limits of soft power and used NATO "smart power" to backstab and murder Muammar Gaddafi who was an ally in the War on Terror. See: Obama war crimes.[39]

11. English is the number one spoken language in the world which is the national language of the United States and its close ally the United Kingdom.[40] And English is widely used in both commerce and in the media in the world.

Soft power is a nation's capacity to cause others to do things through persuasive/non-coercive means. The American political scientist Joseph Nye introduced the concept of "soft power" in the late 1980s. The fact that English is so widely spoken in the world increases America's soft power.

Brand Finance, the world's leading brand valuation consultancy, annually list the countries with the strongest soft power.

Brand Finance's 2022 ranking of the 10 countries with the most soft power[41]:

  1. United States
  2. United Kingdom (One of the strongest allies of the United States)
  3. Germany
  4. China
  5. Japan
  6. France
  7. Canada
  8. Switzerland
  9. Russia
  10. Italy

According to Nye, American soft power has been damaged by its support for Israel.[42]

12. In 2024, a majority of the 100 most valuable brands were based in the United States, with a combined value of $3.2 trillion.[43]

13. Many people in the United States have an achievement orientation. The United States leads the world in Nobel Prizes, Olympic medals and flags planted by a man on the moon.[44][45] In 2023, the United States had more than three times as many Nobel Prizes than another country.[46] In 2023, the United States had been awarded more twice as many Olympic gold medals as any other nation.[47]

14. The world's most powerful military and advanced military technology[48]

15. In terms of countries each countries GNP and the adding of the GNP of countries that are allies of the United States or lean to the United States as opposed to countries that are allies of China or lean towards China, the U.S. holds an advantage in terms of economical dominance and this state of affairs could continue for the foreseeable future (See: The US retains the economic advantage in its rivalry with China. America and its allies remain more united and economically powerful than Beijing’s group of allies, Financial Times, November 29, 2023). See also: The US, Allies See Opportunity and Risk in China’s Slowing Economy, Bloomberg News, 2023

NATO and the LGBT movement.

16. The United States has a significant number of allies and strategic partnerships such as the: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (Made up of 31 countries); Aukus (a trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific region between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States); the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), and the Organization of American States (OAS). See: Who Are the US Allies: A Comprehensive Guide to America’s Key International Partnerships and Advancing U.S. Alliances and Partnerships through Security Sector Governance Initiatives

17. According to the atheistic Encyclopedia Britannica, one of the strengths of the United States is: "Navigable waterways are extensive and centre upon the Mississippi River system in the country’s interior, the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence Seaway system in the north, and the Gulf Coast waterways along the Gulf of Mexico."[49] A cyber-attack on the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore in March 2024 once again exposed the hubris of these claims.[50]

18. Advances in agricultural productivity in the United States enable a smaller labor force to produce greater quantities than ever before.[51]

19. Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).

Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).

George Friedman on the future of the United States. George Friedman is the former head of Stratfor

Liberal triumphalism at its zenith: NATO-backed Nazis from the Maidan coup show their true colors.

George Friedman is the former head of Stratfor which Barron's calls the "shadow CIA". Friedman famously called the 2014 CIA-directed Maidan coup in which UK and American-trained neo-Nazi snipers murdered 77 innocent citizens and Ukrainian police and burnt alive another 48 people, "the most blatant coup in history".[52]

How does the USA sustain its economic growth?

See also: Keynsianism and deficit spending

Articles:

Liberal propaganda

Liberal racist Zbigniew Brzezinski is the author of the xenophobic tact, The Grand Chessboard that inspired the Maidan coup and the NATO war in Ukraine.[53]

The World is a more competitive place and America cannot be complacent, but the USA is still a superpower:

History of how the USA became a superpower

Unipolarity vs. multipolarity

As far the field of international relations, the education website Unacademy.com defines a unipolar world thusly, "A unipolar world is when the majority of the world is dominated by a single state or nation's military and economic power and social and cultural influence."

The military defeats of the Soviet Union and United States in Afghanistan and the Vietnam War help demonstrate that we don't live in a unipolar world. It is hard to be an occupier in a country that doesn't want you to be there - especially in an age of fourth generation warfare (Fourth generation warfare is warfare where there is a blurring of the separation between war/politics and combatants/civilians. 4GW wars are more decentralized in terms of their command and control).

A multipolar world refers to a system in the world which power is distributed among multiple/many states or blocs of states, rather than being concentrated in one (unipolar) or two (bipolar) dominant powers.[54] A bipolar world is when two countries are global superpowers. And a multipolar world is when three or more countries have major influence over the world.

The globalist material from the Council on Foreign Relations and it UK counterpart, the Financial Times, argues that the world is not presently multipolar.


According to the Council on Foreign Relations official publication Foreign Affairs, "The United States and China are undoubtedly the two most powerful countries, but at least one more country must be roughly in their league for multipolarity to exist. This is where claims of multipolarity fall apart. Every country that could plausibly rank third—France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom—is in no way a rough peer of the United States or China."[55]

Keynesianism

See also: Keynesian economics
Chart of the growth of U.S. GNP from January 1947 to January 2023.

A great strength of the United States is its very consistent growth of its GNP over decades and its quick recovery the few times its GNP has gone down.[56]

In addition, research indicates that in the long-term, non-authoritarian countries are more likely to experience greater economic growth. See: Time Under Authoritarian Rule and Economic Growth, CORI Working Paper No. 2007-02

For more information on this topic, please see:

Why is America so rich?

Bureau of Labor Statistics and Washington's number mills

Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption."[57]

According the Yahoo Finance: "According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country... The United States has one of the strongest economies in the world. The country hosts some of the largest companies in the world, which contributes to the high GDP per capita in the country."[58]

As can be seen in the map above, the USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world and it is significantly higher than both China and Russia.[59]

For more information, please see: The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia|The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia

U.S. is a net oil consumer, not producer

Russian urals crude prices as of December 25, 2023.[60]

The USA was among the most 10 most economically diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website (Diversified in terms of industry sectors)

The USA was among the most 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website (Diversified in terms of industry sectors).[61]

The USA was the most economically diverse economy in the world from 2000 to 2021 according to Global Economic Diverse Index (In other words, not having too many eggs in a small amount of baskets.).[62]

Read the articles: The Importance Of A Diversified Economy and Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification
The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) is a holistic measure of the productive capabilities of large economic systems, usually cities, regions, or countries.[63]

In 2018, the USA was ranked #11 in Economic Complexity Index (ECI), as it was defined and calculated by Cesar A. Hidalgo and Ricardo Hausmann and published by The Observatory of Economic Complexity.[64]

Russia's GNP measured in Petrodollars

Russian GNP 1991 to August 2023.

Estimates of Russian GNP 1991 to August 2023 measured in US fiat dollars; exchange rates between the dollar and the ruble ended in March 2022 when the ruble became a gold-backed currency.

Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:

*Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects, Wall Street Journal, August 2023

*The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023, August, 2023

*Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble, Barron's, August 2023

*5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining, Business Insider, 2023

John Joseph Mearsheimer and the death of the liberal world order

Growth of Western liberalism.

John Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

In his 2023 interview with the South China Morning Post, Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer stated about U.S. relations with China and Russia:

“ The Americans have a vested interest in pivoting full force to East Asia, to contain China. The Americans view China as a more serious threat than Russia. It’s very important to understand that China is a peer competitor to the United States. China is a rising great power and is a threat to the US in ways that Russia is not. So the Americans have a vested interest in not getting bogged down in a war in eastern Europe, more specifically in Ukraine.

Furthermore, they have a vested interest in doing everything they can to make sure that Russia and China are not close allies. What happens as a result of the Ukraine war is that it’s almost impossible for the US to fully pivot in Asia.[65]

”

In his March 2022 interview with The New Yorker, Mearsheimer indicated:

“ I’m talking about the raw-power potential of Russia—the amount of economic might it has. Military might is built on economic might. You need an economic foundation to build a really powerful military. To go out and conquer countries like Ukraine and the Baltic states and to re-create the former Soviet Union or re-create the former Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe would require a massive army, and that would require an economic foundation that contemporary Russia does not come close to having. There is no reason to fear that Russia is going to be a regional hegemony in Europe. Russia is not a serious threat to the United States. We do face a serious threat in the international system. We face a peer competitor. And that’s China. Our policy in Eastern Europe is undermining our ability to deal with the most dangerous threat that we face today.[66] ”

In 2016, Mearsheimer said: "Russia was a declining great power."[67]

Pew Research suveys: Views of the U.S. are much more positive than views of China, and increasingly so

According to Pew Research, on balance, views of the U.S. are much more positive than views of China, and increasingly so (See: Comparing Views of the U.S. and China in 24 Countries, November 6, 2023).

Prior to the NATO war in Ukraine Pew Research survey found Most countries saw the United States as the world’s leading economic power rather than China

Debt to GDP ratio

Under current policies, government debt outstanding will grow from 100% to 200% of GDP.

See also: National debt of the United States and Federal Debt Limit

During World War II, federal debt peaked at 106% of gross domestic product in 1946.[68]

US government interest payments per day doubled from $1bn per day before the covid pandemic to almost $2bn per day in 2023.

It will take decades for Americans to pay off the national debt of the United States if this happens. And it will require Americans retiring later, controlling defense budget costs, a merit-based legal immigration system,, and sound growth economic policies. The failed presidency of Jimmy Carter was followed by 12 years of Republican rule.

Watch the videos which give an overview of America's federal debt problem:

Liberal views on China

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov comment during Q & A at the Leaders of Russia Management Competition, Moscow, March 19, 2022.[69] NYT journalist Tom Friedman joked, "Grandma always said never fight Russia and China at the same time."[70]

Currently, there is growing sentiment that China has economically peaked or will soon do so (See section below entitled "Debate: Has China peaked? Pro/con arguments"). See also: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

In 2023, Newsweek reported: Chart Shows China's Economy Losing Ground Against US.

China has:

1. Hardworking people and a lot of smart people

2. Fair degree of national unity and nationalism. But as things worsen in China for the reasons given in the weaknesses of China section below, there could easily be more infighting. In 2022, the historian Niall Ferguson indicated that China's population is projected to drop by 50-75% by the end of the century.[71]

3. Good infrastructure

4. Beginnings of the Belt and Road Initiative, although the infrastructure project has a lot of problems (See: CRUMBLING! 10 Years of China's Belt and Road Initiative).

5. A large and quickly growing Christian population. See: Growth of Christianity in China

According to Slate, "Protestant Christianity has been the fastest growing religion in China."[72] Evangelical Christianity is especially growing sharply in China.[73] See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity and Protestant cultural legacies

In 2020, The Economist published an article entitled Protestant Christianity is booming in China which indicated:

“ As for China’s Christians, their numbers continue to grow. The government reckons that about 200m of China’s 1.4bn people are religious. Although most practice traditional Chinese religions such as Taoism, and longer-standing foreign imports such as Buddhism, Protestant Christianity is probably the fastest-growing faith, with at least 38m adherents today (about 3% of the population), up from 22m a decade ago, according to the government’s count. The true number is probably much higher: perhaps as many as 22m more Chinese Protestants worship in unregistered “underground” churches, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Notre Dame. As China also has 10m-12m Catholics, there are more Christians in China today than in France (38m) or Germany (43m). Combined, Christians and the country’s estimated 23m Muslims may now outnumber the membership of the Communist Party (92m). Indeed, an unknown number of party members go to church as well as local committee meetings.[74] ”

China's downsides:

Xi Jinping

1. Bad government. The Chinese communists are godless, corrupt, short-sighted and authoritarian. A cult of personality has developed around Xi Jinping and he has eliminated all significant political opposition so now he is surrounded by yes man. So the government is calcified around Xi Jinping's thoughts and less responsive to citizens' concerns and problems. See: Chinese Communist Party and Militant atheism and China and atheism and Atheism and morality and Atheism and leadership

On December 22, 2022, Foreign Affairs magazine noted in their article China’s Dangerous Decline "...China is teetering on the edge of a cliff. Ten years of Xi’s “reforms” — widely characterized in the West as successful power plays—have made the country frail and brittle, exacerbating its underlying problems while giving rise to new ones. ...a growing number of Western analysts—including Michael Beckley, Jude Blanchette, Hal Brands, Robert Kaplan, Susan Shirk, and Fareed Zakaria—have begun to highlight this reality..."[75]

Videos:

2. China has terrible age demographics. It has the fastest graying/aging population in the world (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series) which will severely hurt its economy (See: Atheism and fertility rates).

According to Forbes magazine, as far as the fertility rate of China: "...the Total Fertility Rate (births per woman) dropped in 2021 to just 1.15, far below the 2.1 required for a stable population."[76] In 2022, the historian Niall Ferguson indicated that China's population is projected to drop by 50-75% by the end of the century.[77]

3. A high percentage of uneducated people. The Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions article Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China’s Growth indicates: "The share of uneducated workers in China's labor force is larger than that of virtually all middle-income countries. According to census data, there are roughly 500 million people in China between the ages of 18 and 65 without a high school degree."[78]

Investopedia indicates: "Education tends to raise productivity and creativity, as well as stimulate entrepreneurship and technological breakthroughs. All of these factors lead to greater output and economic growth."[79]

Michael Beckley is an associate professor of political science at Tufts University and a Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute Beckley published the 2018 book Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower.

A Rand Corporation review of Beckley's book Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower indicates:

“ Beckley adduces an impressive amount and diversity of evidence in support of his argument. U.S. workers, for example, “generate roughly seven times the output of Chinese workers on average.” China's total factor productivity growth rate, meanwhile, “has actually turned negative in recent years, meaning that China is producing less output per unit of input each year,” and “roughly one-third of China's industrial production [goes] to waste.”[80] ”

For more information, please see: China has a labor productivity rate that is a WHOLE LOT LOWER than the labor productivity rate of the USA

Map of China

4. Financial soundness lacking in society. In September of 2023, Reuters reported: "China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has doubled to a whopping 280%, opens new tab, with the bulk of liabilities held by local government financial vehicles (LGFVs)."[81] China also has a real estate crises of a great magnitude. In addition, it has an opaque accounting system. While it is true that China has more tools than the West to address the matter of its debt crisis, too much debt is a drag on an economy no matter how the burden is distributed by its government.

On February 6, 2023, Yahoo Finance said concerning China's real estate crisis which began in 2020:

“ China's overreliance on real estate has sent its economy tumbling toward 2008-era financial conditions, Kyle Bass told CNBC on Tuesday.

"This is just like the US financial crisis on steroids," the Hayman Capital founder said. "They have three and a half times more banking leverage than we did going into the crisis. And they've only been at this banking thing for a couple of decades."

The years of double-digit growth China enjoyed prior to the pandemic were made possible by an unregulated real estate market, Bass noted, which leaned too heavily on debt to expand.

With defaults now plaguing the industry, this spells massive trouble for the country's broader economy. The real estate sector makes up around a quarter of the country's GDP and 70% of household wealth.

"The basic architecture of the Chinese economy is broken," Bass summarized.[82]

”

Since 2021, China’s stock markets have lost about $7 trillion in value.[83] See: Chinese stock markets

China has high youth unemployment (See: Youth unemployment in China).

5. Too many inefficient state-owned enterprises

6. In addition to having a greying population with a subreplacement level of fertility, it has poor prospects to attract new people due to its repressive, surveillance/police state society. In addition, it has a population that does not like foreigners which makes immigration more difficult.

7. Besides having a poor reputation to its repressive society, it's starting to have a bad international reputation due to: debt trap projects to poor nations; wolf-warrior, aggressive foreign policy; human rights violations, unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft.

8. China is experiencing a brain drain and more people are fleeing China (See: China’s Brain Drain Threatens Its Future, Wall Street Journal, 2023 and As economy falters, more Chinese migrants take a perilous journey to the US border to seek asylum, Yahoo News, 2023

China banned Winnie-the-Pooh because of the similarities between Winnie-the-Pooh and Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping is obese. See also: Atheism and obesity

China has likely peaked

China is no longer set to eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.

That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.”

Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.[84]

See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

China has likely peaked arguments

  • China’s rise is reversing, Financial Times, November 20, 2023 (The past two years have seen the largest drop in the China’s share of global GDP since the Mao era)

Videos:

Why China's likely prolonged economic malaise will probably be much worse than Japan's lost decades

See also: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy

Japan suffered 30 years of economic mailaise. See: Japan's lost decades - 1990s to 2010s

And while Japan's long financial malaise was bad, China's will be much worse (See: Japan's Recession Was Bad. China's Will Be So Much Worse)

The company China Beige Book International describes its company thusly:

“ Reliable data on China’s economy are notoriously difficult to come by. Official Chinese government figures exist, but lack transparency and credibility, while the few private indicators that exist are far too limited in size and scope for strategic planning.

We founded China Beige Book International in 2010 to help institutional investors and corporate CEOs navigate China’s notoriously black box economy. Today we operate the largest private in-country data-collection network ever developed to track the Chinese marketplace, gathering real-time economic data from thousands of firms across all of China’s regions, sectors, and 34 discrete industries.

Our flagship platform provides independent data and in-depth analysis on every key component of China’s diverse economy—from growth dynamics to labor market and inflation trends to the world’s only tracker of the credit environment and shadow banking.[85]

”

Due to China's ongoing real estate crisis, there have been many sensationalist doom and gloom forecasts about China's future economic prospects. On the other hand, China's Beige Book International has been very judicious and measured in its economic forecasts. The company previously argued that China's economy hasn't peaked, but it no longer argues this.

In October 2023, Leland Miller, who is the CEO of China Beige Book International, now argues that we are in a new paradigm about China's future economy due to structural problems and "Right now we are in a period where everything is looking pretty bad."[86]

Japan experienced economic malaise from the 1990s to 2010s (see: Japan's lost decades - 1990s to 2010s).

On October 19, 2023, Reuters reported:

“ China’s real estate market is in decline. Debt deflation hangs in the air. The country’s workforce is shrinking and GDP growth is trending downwards. No wonder the International Monetary Fund at its recent shindig in Marrakech warned of slowing economic growth in the People’s Republic, raising the prospect of “Japanisation” – the prolonged economic and financial malaise that afflicted its once high-flying neighbour after an asset bubble imploded three decades ago. The trouble is that China’s economic imbalances are far worse than Japan’s in 1990. And that’s before considering the ruinous economic consequences of President Xi Jinping’s autocratic rule.[87] ”

And while Japan's long financial malaise was bad, China's will be much worse (See: Japan's Recession Was Bad. China's Will Be So Much Worse).

Skepticism about China remaining a global power

See also: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

A number of leading geopolitical analysts are skeptical about China remaining a global power as is faces a number of serious intractable problems (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power). On December 22, 2022, Foreign Affairs magazine noted in their article China’s Dangerous Decline "...China is teetering on the edge of a cliff. Ten years of Xi’s “reforms” — widely characterized in the West as successful power plays—have made the country frail and brittle, exacerbating its underlying problems while giving rise to new ones. ...a growing number of Western analysts—including Michael Beckley, Jude Blanchette, Hal Brands, Robert Kaplan, Susan Shirk, and Fareed Zakaria — have begun to highlight this reality..."[88]

For more information, please see: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

How long will China's one-party, communist state last?

Russophobia

NATO General Secretary and LGBT activist Jens Stoltenberg (center).

Russia strengths:

1. It has national unity with high nationalism/patriotism.

2. A lot of oil and gas.

3. A lot of smart people

4. Produces a lot of wheat and agricultural products

5. "Russian President Vladimir Putin is laying claim to 1.2 million square kilometers in the Arctic. His main objectives appear to be the colonization of the Arctic and of the North Pole. It’s a project more than 20 years in the making. This area, which remains virtually unexploited, is one of the last El Dorados on the planet. The subsoil is full of oil, gas, rare earths and precious minerals like gold, uranium, and copper. With... the melting of the ocean’s ice, these riches are now more accessible, fueling the greed of major Western powers. But in this conquest of the Arctic, Russia already has a head start. For years, the country has been equipped with gigantic nuclear-powered icebreakers, which have been used to help navigate the icy waters surrounding the North Pole. In addition, Vladimir Putin has invested in extraordinary industrial projects. One such project is an enormous gas processing plant anchored in the permafrost; another is the construction of an incredible floating nuclear power plant intended to supply energy to Pevek, a small, isolated port north of the polar circle. These are but a few examples of the Russian leader’s flagship projects, in this new conquest of the Arctic." - Putin's advances in the Arctic | DW Documentary

6. A large percentage of people with traditional Russian Orthodox ideas (Although attendance at Russian Orthodox Churches is low.[89][90]). At the same time, there is a significant portion who do not hold traditional values and Russia has the 3rd highest divorce rate in the world (See: Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world).

7. Some positive things in pre-Soviet Russian civilization that continue to this day (chess, ballet, etc.).

Russia's downsides:

Peter Zeihan was one of the first liberal propagandists hired by Stratfor as it transitioned from a traditional Cold War conservative perspective into a neocon globalist perspective. See: O'Sullivan's First Law.

1. Lack of good governance. Lots of corruption and an authoritarian government with the Kremlin surrounded by big walls. Russia has a long history of corruption. Vladimir Putin's corruption is not some surprising fact of history (See: Corruption in Russia: A Historical Perspective). See: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

2. Russia's fertility rate of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.[91] It's fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.[91] And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.[91]

Russia will go out swinging (Ukraine, etc.), but its age demographics (which is among the worst in the world in terms of an aging population) and other problems will cause a cultural collapse in Russia in the 21st century (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series). See: Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia

Russian emigration from Russia is significant:

Russia, fertility rate and demographics videos:

The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse (See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse).

Other articles related to the war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse:

For more information, please see:

3. According to the Moscow Times: "During his annual phone-in with the public in June this year, President Vladimir Putin described low productivity as “one of the most acute and important” problems facing Russia."[92] See: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia

4. Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline and the war in Ukraine is having a negative effect on its economy

The Russia-Ukraine War is hurting the Russian economy (See also: The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will significantly hurt the Russian economy).

Russia's inflation problem:

Russia's declining rubble problem:

Negative impact of the war in Ukraine on Russia's economy:

You can't spread a AK-12 assault rifle on bread! Or put it in a cake! This war in Ukraine is going to be a pyrrhic victory for Putin/Russia - especially given its subreplacement fertility rate and the fact that it has one of the worst demographics in the world. See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

Russia's share of the world's economy is expected to shrink by 2028:

The article Is Russia the World’s 5th Largest Economy in GDP, PPP? indicates:

“ But what if we were to look ahead? How would Russia fare in the ranking of Europe’s and the world’s largest economies in the future? Again, we consulted the IMF, whose estimates go to 2028. These estimates show that in 2028 Russia’s share in the world’s GDP, PPP, in constant dollars will shrink, making it seventh among the countries with the largest shares in the world’s GDP. The IMF predicts that Russia’s share in the world’s GDP will decline from 2.92% in 2022 to 2.58% in 2028 (see Table 4), a decrease of 11.64%.[93] ”
The MOEX Russia Index, or IMOEX, is a stock index that tracks the performance of the 50 largest and most liquid stocks across 10 sectors in Russia.

It is a capitalization-weighted composite index, which means that companies with larger market capitalization will constitute a larger percentage of the index's value.

Post the war in Ukraine, the MOEX index is down. However, in May of 2023 it was reported that the MOEX Russia Index has gained 24% in 2023 after tanking 42% in 2022.[94] Russia's stock market is boosted by domestic investors who have few options amid sweeping sanctions.[95]
Russian 100 ruble currency note

Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:

*Russian ruble slides to 16-month low against U.S. dollar as capital flight, shrinking trade surplus bite, Marketwatch, August 14, 2023

*Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects, Wall Street Journal, August 2023

*The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023, August, 2023

*Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble, Barron's, August 2023

*5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining, Business Insider, 2023
Chart of the currency exchange between the Russian ruble to dollars from December 5, 2003 to August 26, 2023

5. Russia's economy is not highly diversified. It is too dependent on oil and gas.[96] See: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines and The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come

Newsweek's November 23, 2023 article Russian Economy About to 'Hit the Ice,' Putin Ally Warns states:

“ Russia's economy is about to "hit the ice", billionaire businessman Oleg Deripaska, described as President Vladimir Putin's "favorite oligarch", has warned.

The businessman, whose fortune Forbes estimates at $2.4 billion, issued the warning in a post on his Telegram channel, saying that there is a general drop in commodity prices, including those that Russia exports, and that this could negatively impact the country's economy...

Deripaska warned that next year's budget could be short 10–12 trillion rubles ($112.8 to $135.36 billion) due to the current drop in commodity prices. This could be caused by a general decline in global prices for raw materials, "suppressed economic growth," and "the tyranny of state capitalism, raising prices for all its products and services, drawing subsidies and subsidies from the budget," the oligarch said.

He said the current situation is a "trap", and it is only possible to get out of this through "serious economic changes, for which, apparently, there is no will yet."

"What the world calls a 'soft landing' continues, prices for all commodities are declining. And we have a record tax collection this year of 46 trillion rubles. Already in the next year the income situation [government revenues] will hit the ice," he added.

The IMF forecasts that the Russian economy will grow by 2.2 percent this year after shrinking by 2.1 percent last year, though it sees GDP growth slowing to 1.1 percent in 2024.[97]

”

Russian oil: Lower future production and lower future profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

See also: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

In 2023, OilPrice.com reported in an article entitled Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035:

“ But Moscow cannot continue defying the odds indefinitely. BP Plc (NYSE: BP) has predicted that the country’s output is likely to take a big hit over the long-term, with production declining 25%-42% by 2035. BP says that Russia's oil output could decrease from 12 million barrels per day in 2019 to 7-9 million bpd in 2035 thanks to the curtailment of new promising projects, limited access to foreign technologies as well as a high rate of reduction in existing operating assets.

In contrast, BP says that OPEC will become even more dominant as the years roll on, with the cartel’s share in global production increasing to 45%-65% by 2050 from just over 30% currently. Bad news for the bulls: BP remains bearish about the long-term prospects for oil, saying demand for oil is likely to plateau over the next 10 years and then decline to 70-80 million bpd by 2050.

That said, Russia might still be able to avoid a sharp decline in production because many of the assets of oil companies that exited the country were abandoned or sold to local management teams who retained critical expertise.[98]

”

For the full article, see: Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035, OilPrice.com, 2023

Videos:

Russia crude oil extraction cost March 2005 to December 2018:

For more information, please read: The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End, Stratfor, 2023

"Russia's easily accessible oil reserves have long been the cornerstone of its economy. But these conventional fields are depleting, leading to the need to invest and expand into more untapped sources. This transformation will not be easy or cheap, as various factors have led to a poorly optimized oil sector that's ill-equipped to soften the blow of rising costs... Russia may have little choice but to accept that its glory days of oil dominance and high profit margins are nearing an end." - The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End, Stratfor, 2023

Russia crude oil extraction cost March 2005 to December 2018[99]

Russia's crude oil extraction cost affects how much profit Russia can earn from Russian oil sales. In addition, it can affect the potential amount of Russian oil drilling because if oil is too costly to extract in a given area, the drilling will not occur.

Russia's oil extraction cost are expected to rise in the future. See: The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End, Stratfor, 2023

For more information, please see: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe implementing the Green agenda:

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe implementing the Green agenda. China's economy is having significant problems compared to its past. If China's economy gets worse (And there is some evidence that China's future economy will may worse this decade and beyond), that is going to hurt the Russian economy. See: Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

"Even the act of diverting supplies to Asia entails a significant reduction in Russian companies’ profit margins. It costs a lot more to transport oil to Asian markets than to Europe, and there is not much spare transport capacity, which pushes up the cost of freight, reducing the profit made by Russian companies, whatever the amount at which the price is capped.

The price cap also enables Asian buyers to obtain big discounts on Russian oil. China and India may not officially be enforcing the cap, but it’s hard to imagine that companies from those countries will not use it to barter the price down. Indeed, this is already happening: some shipments to China due to be loaded onto tankers in January were sold at $5–6 cheaper per barrel than usual."[100]

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy.

Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe implementing the Green agenda.[101]

Countries with diversified economies are more resilient and stable:

Booz & Company was a global strategy consulting team established in the United States in 1914. The firm was acquired by PwC on April 4, 2014.

Below is the executive summary of their report entitled Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification

“ The effects of the recent global economic crisis were allpervasive, and demonstrated that no economy is safe from destabilizing external events. Resource-dependent countries, with their narrow base of economic activity, are particularly vulnerable, but all countries may have vulnerabilities stemming from a lack of diversification in one or more economic dimensions, and they must be more vigilant in managing risks to their economies. Not only must a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) be balanced among sectors, but key elements of its economy must be varied, flexible, and readily applicable to a variety of economic opportunities, and areas of overconcentration must continually be identified and mitigated. Policymakers should work to achieve greater economic diversification, in order to reduce the impact of external events and foster more robust, resilient growth over the long term.

For resource-rich, developing economies, the immediate imperative is to diversify export-oriented sectors, but for the benefit of long-term sustainability, they must also look at the larger picture. A strong institutional and regulatory framework and workforce development initiatives are indispensable to the diversification effort; and proper management of human capital is key, especially in those countries experiencing a “demographic dividend.” Implementing such comprehensive diversification and risk management strategies won’t be easy, but the result—a diverse, stable, and growing economy—is worth the effort.[102]

”

Related articles:

Every year, 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.[103]

6. It's poor state of public health (see: Understanding Russia’s Healthcare System). Many of its men are alcoholics. Every year, 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.[104] This is likely a cultural legacy of the atheistic Soviet Union. See: Atheism and alcoholism

7. Morale is low in the country compared to many countries and there is much unhappiness (See: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?).

8. Much of its land is in cold, inhospitable areas (Areas that often lack modern conveniences such as indoor plumbing.[105]).

9. Poor prospects to attract new people. In addition, many wealthy people and young men have fled Russia (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series).

10. Russia is bogged down in a war in Ukraine which is increasingly hurting Rusia's economy (See: Russian war economy is overheating on a powder keg, Reuters, 2023).

11. It is currently a pariah state in the West with many sanctions against it. And many Western corporations pulled out of Russia. Russia may have to resign itself to selling much of its oil/gas in the future at a discount and lower profit margin to countries in the Eastern World such as India and China (I expect the USA to ramp up its oil and gas production in the future via some Republican presidents, but Democrat presidents will cause somewhat of a drag on this process.).

12. State of religion in Russia

In 2022, it was reported that attendance at Russian Orthodox Church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.[106]

Also, according to a 2019 report "Using data from surveys carried out by the Higher School of Economics in Moscow in 2018, the sociologist Yana Roshchina worked out that while almost 81 percent of adult Russians consider themselves Orthodox, this is often a declaration of identity rather than faith. Just 6 percent of the population and 43 percent of believers go to church several times a month. According to Interior Ministry statistics, 4.3 million people across the country attended Easter services in 2019 – around 100,000 fewer than a year before."[107]

Pew Research reported in 2017: "Relatively few Orthodox or Catholic adults in Central and Eastern Europe say they regularly attend worship services, pray often or consider religion central to their lives. For example, a median of just 10% of Orthodox Christians across the region say they go to church on a weekly basis."[108]

Also, there is the issue of Russia's persecution of Russian Protestants (See: Why Russia's religious persecution of Russian Protestants is not good for Russia).

13. According to US Department of State in 2017,[109] Muslims in Russia numbered 14 million or roughly 10% of the total population. Historically speaking, at 10% of the population, Muslims cause problems in society (See: What Islam Isn't - Dr. Peter Hammond).

14. Russia faces shrinking middle class, rising inequality, study finds":

"Russia's middle class will shrink as social inequality grows over coming years, an economic study conducted by Russian experts suggested, as sanctions against Moscow and limited growth potential scupper development prospects...

Russia's economy proved unexpectedly resilient in the face of tough Western sanctions last year, but a return to pre-conflict levels of prosperity may be far off as more government spending is directed towards the military.

The study's most optimistic scenario sees real incomes exceeding 2021 levels by around 2% in 2030 and poverty dropping below 10% from 11.8% in 2022. In that scenario, the size of the middle class would still drop to 14%-31% by 2030 from current estimates of 20%-50%."

15. Russia is experiencing a large brain drain

Globalism

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

Raymond Dalio is an American billionaire investor and hedge fund manager.

American exceptionalism

Propaganda matrix

According to the World Happines Index, the citizens of the United States are happier than the citizens of Russia.[111][112]

Western hegemony

“ The era of Western domination has ended and a new world order is emerging. ”

—Prime Minister Victor Orban of Hungary, March 4, 2024.[113]

In the above map, the Western World regions of the world are colored light blue.

There are countries in Asia that have adopted much of Western values such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

The above graphic comes from the video Why the West Won’t Collapse with Stephen Kotkin (Stephen Kotkin is an American historian, academic, and author.)

For more information, please see: Why has the West been so successful?

European vassal states

The decline of European allies

See also: Decline of Europe

Europe is in decline and will remain so for some time (See: Decline of Europe).

Furthest Nazi expansion.jpg NATO 32 Members.png
(left) Furthest expansion of the Third Reich, 1942;[114] (right) furthest expansion of NATO, 2024.

Hope for NATO allies slowing down or reversing its decline

Rejection of social conservatism and becoming more religious in the future

See also: United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics

Post 1950s, the USA has experienced some decline (Divorce rate increase, increase in fatherless homes, high federal government debt, the sexual revolution, etc.).

On July 24, 2019, due to religious immigration to the United States and the higher fertility rate of religious people, Eric Kaufmann wrote in an article entitled Why Is Secularization Likely to Stall in America by 2050? A Response to Laurie DeRose: "Overall, the picture suggests that the U.S. will continue to secularize in the coming decades. However, a combination of religious immigration, immigrant religious retention, slowing religious decline due to a rising prevalence of believers among the affiliated, and higher native religious birth rates will result in a plateauing of secularizing trends by mid-century." [115]

Steve Turley

Steve Turley wrote:

“ According to University of London scholar Eric Kaufmann’s detailed study on global demographic trends, we are in the early stages of nothing less than a demographic revolution. In Kaufmann’s words, "religious fundamentalists are on course to take over the world." There is a significant demographic deficit between secularists and conservative religionists. For example, in the U.S., while self-identified non-religionist women averaged only 1.5 children per couple in 2002, conservative evangelical women averaged 2.5 children, representing a 28 percent fertility edge. Kaufmann notes that this demographic deficit has dramatic effects over time. In a population evenly divided, these numbers indicate that conservative evangelicals would increase from 50 to 62.5 percent of the population in a single generation. In two generations, their number would increase to 73.5 percent, and over the course of 200 years, they would represent 99.4 percent. The Amish and Mormons provide contemporary illustrations of the compound effect of endogamous growth. The Amish double in population every twenty years, and projections have the Amish numbering over a million in the U.S. and Canada in just a few decades. Since 1830, Mormon growth has averaged 40 percent per decade, which means that by 2080, there may be as many as 267 million Mormons in the world, making them by 2100 anywhere from one to six percent of the world’s population.

In Europe, immigration is making the continent more religiously conservative, not less; in fact, London and Paris are some of the most religiously dense areas within their respective populations. In Britain, for example, Ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Jews constitute only 17 percent of the Jewish population but account for 75 percent of Jewish births. And in Israel, Haredi schoolchildren have gone from comprising a few percent to nearly a third of all Jewish pupils in a matter of five decades, and are poised to represent the majority of the Jewish population by 2050. Since 1970, charismatic Christians in Europe have expanded steadily at a rate of 4 percent per year, in step with Muslim growth. Currently, Laestadian Lutherans in Finland and Holland’s Orthodox Calvinists have a fertility advantage over their wider secular populations of 4:1 and 2:1 respectively.

In contrast, Kaufmann’s data projects that secularists, who consistently exemplify a low fertility rate of around 1.5 (significantly below the replacement level of 2.1), will begin a steady decline after 2030 to a mere 14 to 15 percent of the American population. Similar projections apply to Europe as well. Kaufmann thus appears to have identified what he calls "the soft underbelly of secularism," namely, demography. This is because secular liberalism entails its own “demographic contradiction,” the affirmation of the sovereign individual devoid of the restraints of classical moral structures necessitates the freedom not to reproduce. The link between sex and procreation having been broken, modernist reproduction translates into mere personal preference. It thus turns out that the radical individualism so celebrated and revered by contemporary secular propagandists is in fact the agent by which their ideology implodes.[116]

”

Essays about liberal triumphalism

External links

China related:

Additional resource:

References

  1. ↑ Kosovo Indictment Proves Bill Clinton’s Serbian War Atrocities, by Jim Bovard, Jun 25, 2020. The Libertarian Institute.
  2. ↑ The US failed to cope with the burden of responsibilities that they happened to bear – Putin, RT, March 7, 2024. rumble.com
  3. ↑ https://sonar21.com/niger-coup-a-contrived-crisis-or-a-major-cia-goof-and-my-interview-on-a-russian-morning-show/#comment-146860
  4. ↑ United States - Strengths and weaknesses
  5. ↑ A "mixed economy" is defined as part socialist and part capitalist.
  6. ↑ 64 million child have been aborted in America since 1973.
  7. ↑ The Wealth of Working Nations by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Gustavo Ventura, and Wen Yao, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 2023
  8. ↑ What makes the US economy so resilient?, The Hill, 2023
  9. ↑ Global Economic Diverse Index report in 2023
  10. ↑ Countries With The Most Diverse Economies
  11. ↑ United States - Strengths and weaknesses
  12. ↑ Should You Be Bullish on America?
  13. ↑ Institutions are catalysts for economic development and stability in Africa, The London School of Economics and Political Science website
  14. ↑ Coups Slow Economic Growth
  15. ↑ What Does The Decline In American Christians Mean For The US?, Kathleen J. Anderson, Mar 5, 2024. thepoliticalinsider.com
  16. ↑ Religious ‘Nones’ in America: Who They Are and What They Believe, Pew Research Center, JANUARY 24, 2024. www.pewresearch.org
  17. ↑ The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2020
  18. ↑ The U.S. Is (Again) Among the World's Top Innovators, U.S. News and World Report, 2023
  19. ↑ Global Innovation Index 2023: Switzerland, Sweden and the U.S. lead the Global Innovation Ranking; Innovation Robust but Startup Funding Increasingly Uncertain
  20. ↑ World's Most Innovative Countries, Statista website, 2023
  21. ↑ Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing, Yahoo Finance, September 27, 2023
  22. ↑ Generative AI could increase global GDP by 7%, Goldman Sachs
  23. ↑ Preview: Vladimir Putin reveals what he admires about America, CBS News, 2016
  24. ↑ United States - Strengths and weaknesses
  25. ↑ What makes the US economy so resilient?, The Hill, 2023
  26. ↑ World Bank high-income economy
  27. ↑ Country and Lending Groups. World Bank. Accessed 2023.
  28. ↑ [The World Bank In China], World Bank
  29. ↑ Russian Federation, World Bank
  30. ↑ 25 Most Productive Countries Per Capita, Yahoo Finance
  31. ↑ Labor Productivity: What It Is, How to Calculate & Improve It, Investopedia
  32. ↑ VanDaele, Jasmien (2005). "Engineering Social Peace: Networks, Ideas, And the Founding of the International Labour Organization". International Review of Social History 50 (3): 435–466. doi:10.1017/S0020859005002178. 
  33. ↑ Statistics on Labour Productivity, International Labor Organization website
  34. ↑ List of countries by labor productivity (Ranked using purchasing power parity)
  35. ↑ Statistics on Labour Productivity, International Labor Organization website
  36. ↑ List of countries by labor productivity (Ranked using purchasing power parity)
  37. ↑ https://www.ed.gov/stem#SnippetTab
  38. ↑ What makes the US economy so resilient?, The Hill, 2023
  39. ↑ {{cite book |last1 = Nye |first1 = Joseph S. |author-link1 = Joseph Nye |date = 16 March 2004 |title = Soft Power: The Means To Success In World Politics |url = https://books.google.com/books?id=wuqOAAAAMAAJ |publication-place = New York |publisher = PublicAffairs |page = ix, xi |isbn = 9781586482251 |access-date = 16 March 2023 |quote = [...] I had coined the term 'soft power' a decade or so earlier. [...] I first developed the concept of 'soft power' in Bound to Lead, a book I published in 1990 [...].
  40. ↑ Ranked: The Top Languages Spoken in the World, Visual Capitalist
  41. ↑ Global Soft Power Index 2022: USA bounces back better to top of nation brand ranking, Brand Finance website, 2022
  42. ↑ USA’s Soft Power DAMAGED Over Support For Israel- Prof. Joseph Nye, Afshin Rattansi's Going Underground, February 2024. Rumble
  43. ↑ The 100 Top Brands in the World, Visual Capitalist
  44. ↑ Which countries have the most Nobel Prize winners?
  45. ↑ This country has won more than twice as many Olympic medals as any other nation., USA Today, 2023
  46. ↑ Which countries have the most Nobel Prize winners?
  47. ↑ This country has won more than twice as many Olympic medals as any other nation., USA Today, 2023
  48. ↑ Who has the biggest military? Breaking it down by active and reserve members., USA Today
  49. ↑ United States - Strengths and weaknesses
  50. ↑ https://twitter.com/laralogan/status/1772675651599770093
  51. ↑ United States - Strengths and weaknesses
  52. ↑ https://consortiumnews.com/2014/12/22/the-liberal-idiocy-on-russiaukraine/
  53. ↑ https://aearnur.substack.com/p/western-msm-news-is-getting-men-women-9ce
  54. ↑ What is the meaning of multipolar?
  55. ↑ The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, 2023.
  56. ↑ Should You Be Bullish on America?
  57. ↑ Labor Productivity: What It Is, How to Calculate & Improve It, Investopedia
  58. ↑ 25 Most Productive Countries Per Capita, Yahoo Finance
  59. ↑ Most Productive Countries 2024
  60. ↑ Russian urals crude prices as of December 13, 2023
  61. ↑ Countries With The Most Diverse Economies
  62. ↑ Global Economic Diverse Index report in 2023
  63. ↑ Economic Complexity Index
  64. ↑ List of countries by economic complexity
  65. ↑ The West needs to prepare for ‘ugly’ Russian victory in Ukraine, which will reward China, leading US political scientist warns, South China Morning Post
  66. ↑ Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine, The New Yorker, March 2022
  67. ↑ Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer
  68. ↑ This is not your grandfather’s debt problem By Eugene Steuerle, Washington Post, 2020
  69. ↑ https://thesaker.is/foreign-minister-sergey-lavrov-leaders-of-russia-management-competition-moscow-march-19-2022/
  70. ↑ https://archive.ph/YHRPS
  71. ↑ Niall Ferguson on the projected drop of China's population in the 21st century
  72. ↑ When Will China Become the World’s Largest Christian Country?, Slate
  73. ↑ In China, a church-state showdown of biblical proportions
  74. ↑ Protestant Christianity is booming in China, The Economist, Sep 15th 2020
  75. ↑ China's dangerous decline, Foreign Affairs magazine, December 22, 2022
  76. ↑ China’s Demographics: It Gets Worse, Forbes magazine, Oct 12, 2022
  77. ↑ Niall Ferguson on the projected drop of China's population in the 21st century
  78. ↑ Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China’s Growth., Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
  79. ↑ How Education and Training Affect the Economy
  80. ↑ Book Review: 'Unrivaled' by Michael Beckley, Rand Corporation
  81. ↑ China’s growth is buried under great wall of debt, Reuters, 2023
  82. ↑ China is facing the US financial crisis 'on steroids' as the real estate market collapses, famed hedge fund boss says, Yahoo Finance, February 6, 2023
  83. ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
  84. ↑ China Slowdown Means It May Never Overtake US Economy, Forecast Shows, Bloomberg News, September 5, 2023
  85. ↑ China Beige Book International - About page
  86. ↑ China's tepid economic recovery represents a policy 'narrative shift', says China Beige Book CEO
  87. ↑ China’s leaders speed towards Japanisation, Reuters, October 19, 2023
  88. ↑ China's dangerous decline, Foreign Affairs magazine, December 22, 2022
  89. ↑ attendance at Russian Orthodox church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.
  90. ↑ PERCENTAGE OF ORTHODOX IS DOWN IN RUSSIA, BUT PERCENTAGE OF PRACTICING ORTHODOX IS UP—SURVEY
  91. ↑ 91.0 91.1 91.2 Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure, bne IntelliNews, 2022
  92. ↑ Why Is Russia So Unproductive?, Moscow Times, 2019
  93. ↑ Is Russia the World’s 5th Largest Economy in GDP, PPP?, Russia Matters website, 2023
  94. ↑ Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high, Business Insider, 2023
  95. ↑ Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high, Business Insider, 2023
  96. ↑ [https://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/economics/publications/specials/diversifying-russia.pdf Diversifying Russia], European Bank
  97. ↑ Russian Economy About to 'Hit the Ice,' Putin Ally Warns, Newsweek, November 23, 2023
  98. ↑ Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035, OilPrice.com
  99. ↑ Russia Prime Costs: Crude Oil Extraction
  100. ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
  101. ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
  102. ↑ Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification, Booz & Company, 2011
  103. ↑ Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
  104. ↑ Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
  105. ↑ What do outdoor toilets tell us about Russia?, Euro Topics Press Review, April 3, 2019
  106. ↑ attendance at Russian Orthodox church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.
  107. ↑ Russians Are Not Waiting for a Church Boom, 2019
  108. ↑ Religious Belief and National Belonging in Central and Eastern Europe, Pew Research, 2017
  109. ↑ RUSSIA 2017 INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS FREEDOM REPORT.
  110. ↑ Ray Dalio's China Analysis Makes No Sense
  111. ↑ A color coded map of the world levels of happiness as measured by the World Happiness Index (2023)
  112. ↑ World Happiness Report 2023
  113. ↑ No More Hegemony of the West, a New World Order is Emerging, Warns Viktor Orbán, MTI-Hungary, March 6, 2024. hungarytoday.hu
  114. ↑ https://www.britannica.com/place/Third-Reich/The-Nazi-empire
  115. ↑ Why Is Secularization Likely to Stall in America by 2050? A Response to Laurie DeRose by Eric Kaufmann July 24, 2019
  116. ↑ (source: Text below the YouTube video Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth and the text was written by Dr. Steven Turley).
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