Essay: Contemporaneous war reporting Mar-Jun 2026

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War news

"The post-war western approach (especially in the Cold War context) relied on the ability to outspend any military adversary through the acquisition of high-end, over-engineered and costly manned aircraft and munitions. Dominance of airspace and heavy reliance on aerial bombardment, i.e. air-war, was the doctrinal end. The expenditure overmatch (as well as an imputed technical innovation) was viewed as the crucial element in the confrontation with the USSR. Similarly, the impulse in naval warfare was toward investment in ever bigger carriers and their associated tiers of naval support vessels. In ground warfare, the weighting in the Iraq War’s ‘Desert Storm’ was on tanks ‘punching’ and thrusting through the adversaries’ defence lines -- though this approach was dropped by the West in Ukraine following the turn to 21st century drone-led ‘trench warfare’ on the front line. The high-end outspend-approach both favoured the US’ Military Industrial Complex, and together with US dollar hegemony, provided America with the unique advantage of allowing the US effectively to ‘print’ those high-end overmatch supplementary expenses. Then came the Iran war of 2026, whose asymmetric model upended conventional doctrines...."
Nope. Doesn't have anything about gay bath houses, Russia is a declining power and it will only get weaker with time. Russia has a declining population, very low church attendance; an AIDS epidemic, a high level of alcoholism, crumbling infrastructure and 8.2% of Russia doesn't have indoor plumbing. How many more years does Andy want to waste?


 
Classic military Keynesianism. See also: Stagflation.
 
Chinese perspective on American foreign policy.
"Not only has Israel lost a steadfast defender in Orbán, it is now without a critical protective voice within the European Union."
Pro EU does not mean anti-Israel. Israel gained in Sovenia a new friend.Telling (talk) 22:51, June 13, 2026 (EDT)

Iran

 
Stone Age Iran.
"Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton recently tweeted that other administration officials had warned the president to dismiss Bolton’s urging to attack Iran because of the easily foreseeable consequences of that war, saying “In 2018–2019, I made the case for regime change in Iran as often as I could. Voices in Trump’s orbit often cited Iran’s capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz as a reason against regime change. Trump has been fully aware this is a possibility, and yet did not prepare.”
"During his Wednesday night speech, Donald Trump made the following claim about Iran’s air defenses: "They have no anti-aircraft equipment, their radar’s 100% annihilated, we are unstoppable as a military force." It appears that President Trump was a bit premature. The US Air Force had a difficult day on Friday:
➡️F-15E (48th Fighter Wing) — Shot down in southwestern Iran. Pilot rescued; WSO still missing.
➡️A-10C Thunderbolt II "Warthog" — Shot down and crashed into the Persian Gulf. Pilot reportedly recovered.
➡️2X HH-60G Pave Hawk — Hit during CSAR mission, one crash-landed across the border in Iraq. All crew reportedly rescued.
➡️KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 10:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
➡️F-16CJ “Wild Weasel” (F-16C Block 50/52, SEAD configuration) — Emergency squawk 7700 over Saudi Arabia near the Iraqi border around 15:00 UTC; later disappeared from FlightRadar.
➡️KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 19:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
  • 1 x CH-47 Chinook helicopter (Destroyed on the ground in Kuwait)
  • 1 x A-10 Warthog plane (Shot down & destroyed near the Strait of Hormuz)
  • 1 x A-10 Warthog plane (Shot in Iran, crash-landed & destroyed in Kuwait)
  • 1 x F-15E Strike Eagle jet fighter (Shot down & destroyed in Iran)
  • 2 x HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopters (Damaged while flying in Iran)
  • 2 x MH-6 Little Bird helicopters (Shot down & destroyed in Iran)
  • 2 x Lockheed MC-130 transport planes (Shot down & destroyed in Iran)
  • 1 x MQ-9 Reaper Drone (Shot down & destroyed in Iran)
  • "A U.S.-made Guardian Laser Transmitter Assembly (GLTA) of the AN/AAQ-24(V) LAIRCM (Large Aircraft Infrared Countermeasures) system has been recovered in Iran, possibly from a destroyed U.S. Air Force HC-130J Combat King II. Developed by Northrop Grumman, the AN/AAQ-24(V) is an advanced, autonomous defensive suite designed to protect large rotary-and fixed-wing aircraft from infrared-guided threats, particularly man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS)." [7]
"In the Situation Room on Feb. 11, Mr. Netanyahu made a hard sell, suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change and expressing the belief that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could finally bring an end to the Islamic Republic....Mr. Netanyahu’s presentations — and Mr. Trump’s positive response to them — created an urgent task for the U.S. intelligence community. Overnight, analysts worked to assess the viability of what the Israeli team had told the president....The U.S. officials assessed that the first two objectives were achievable with American intelligence and military power. They assessed that the third and fourth parts of Mr. Netanyahu’s pitch, which included the possibility of the Kurds mounting a ground invasion of Iran, were detached from reality. When Mr. Trump joined the meeting, Mr. Ratcliffe briefed him on the assessment. The C.I.A. director used one word to describe the Israeli prime minister’s regime change scenarios: “farcical”. At that point, Mr. Rubio cut in. “In other words, it’s bullsh*t”, he said."
"Yet the US reality is stark (Schryver):
“The US has lost its naval presence and military bases in the Persian Gulf region; its entire inventory of stand-off munitions has been nearly exhausted, along with its air defences, which have been proven woefully ineffective”.
“This is what decisive strategic defeat looks like”.
"As Ben Rhodes, former US Deputy National Security Advisor, put it:
“It’s hard to lose a war this short: this comprehensively”.
"What took Trump from a Tuesday night posting that “a whole civilization will die tonight”, to acquiesce a few hours later to negotiations on the basis of Iran’s 10-point plan, is for conjecture. But perhaps the juxtaposed images of the crashed helicopter from President Carter’s ill-fated attempt to rescue US hostages from Iran in 1980, together with the wreckage of US aircraft near Isfahan from the abandoned Saturday (4 April) attempt to seize enriched uranium from a tunnel at Isfahan, tells its story.
"As one commentator notes, the only thing missing from the later 1980 scene is the presence of the assassinated Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
"President Carter, of course, became the political casualty from that event.
"Let us recall too, that this current war was launched by a snap strike to kill the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamanei – and was expected to be a short war of days’ duration only. The NY Times report of the 11 February 2026 meeting at which Netanyahu persuaded Trump to join with an assault on Iran confirms that “the President appeared to think it would be a very quick war … (and) at no point during the deliberations did the Chairman [General Caine] directly tell the President that war with Iran was a terrible idea … [General Caine] would constantly ask, “And then what? But Mr. Trump would often seem to hear only what he wanted to hear”.
"And what Trump chose to hear at the 11 February briefing dovetailed closely with Netanyahu’s own deep longings: “Iran stood apart” for Trump, as for Netanyahu. “He [Trump] regarded Iran as a uniquely dangerous adversary and was willing to take great risks to [fulfil] his desire to dismantle the Iranian theocracy”, the NY Times reported.
"It is no surprise then, that Trump should now be desperately seeking an exit from the Israeli débacle that was set for him. Like Carter, he is on the rocks politically, as well as militarily. But any meaningful off-ramp will require of him to make major concessions — concessions that will grate painfully with his rancorous feelings toward Iran and Iranians.
"Neither Trump nor Netanyahu — despite the three-hour official briefing on 11 February — at all anticipated the strong Iranian response of immediate attacks on US bases in the Gulf that swiftly ensued upon the killing of the Supreme Leader, though this prospect had been clearly prefigured in earlier Iranian warnings.
"The entire 11 February strike plan that was green-lighted in the White House Situation Room meeting hinged on decapitation strikes, stand-off air bombardment, and a visceral (rather than evidence-based) conviction that an internal uprising surely would follow — one that would topple the state.
"It seems likely that if negotiations do proceed, they will not produce an agreement. Iran is engaged in exploding a 70 year-old paradigm through forcing — by threat of economic and market pain — a US acquiesce to Iran’s ‘release’ from the panopticon of US and Israeli repression. Will this involve more pain and death (more war), or less? That is the question."
"William Schryver is one of the few analysts I pay much attention to. The Duran, Ritter, Larry Johnson & “Friends”, Simplicius and others are commentators, each interesting in a different way. But none of them do the kind of analysis that Schryver does. His analyses and predictions are consistently right."
Comment: It flies at 55,000 feet. Only the Russian S-500, which can shoot down satellites in space, can reach this far up as I understand. RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 00:02, April 11, 2026 (EDT)
Update: India Today: US confirms loss of drone, twice the cost of F-35. (Uncensored Archive).
What possibly can an unmanned drone do that a manned F-35 cannot?
"The U.S. has so far lost the war. None of its war aims has been achieved. Its attempts to steal Iran’s enriched Uranium ended with the biggest air force losses since the Vietnam War era. It is not in a position to set any terms:"
"...Hundreds of U.S. personnel have been killed or injured in the region since the U.S. launched a war on Iran just over a month ago...."
  • "Representative of the Iranian Armed Forces, Sardar Sharakchi, made a rather shocking statement. In particular, he officially confirmed that in 30 days of fighting, the United States lost in killed 900 soldiers. As for the wounded, their number has already reached 5,000. It is noteworthy that many independent experts and journalists are voicing similar figures. According to them, since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, hundreds of dead US soldiers have been transported to the largest American military hospital, Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, located near Ramstein Air Base in Germany. At the same time, it is reported that the number of wounded turned out to be so high that the American command had to send additional supplies of donated blood from the United States to that military hospital for transfusion. Furthermore, the fact that the American 10th Expeditionary Aeromedical Evacuation Squadron had to turn several C-17A Globemaster III military transport planes into "flying hospitals" indicates that the losses among American servicemen are really very high." [9]
  • Professor Robert Pape: "The United States is trying to find some glimmer of victory so they can get out of the escalation trap....we bomb to try to have regime change....this was always likely to fail....The trap is that we can’t accept defeat. Donald Trump cannot accept defeat politically or his presidency--if not completely over--will be damaged in severe ways going into the midterms, and countries as a whole find it hard to accept strategic defeat.... what does Donald Trump want? He wants a clean victory that he can say is not just a victory over Iran, but a victory over Obama. You see, this is about domestic politics as much as it is about international politics....instead of just three days of bombing, we’re now into week seven. And I doubt Iran is going to give him that clean victory. What’s in it for Iran to help bail President Trump out? That’s the fundamental problem here. Trump is desperately looking for that exit ramp, a way to spin this as a political win. I mean, he’s just not finding it at all." [12]
  • US asks for 2-week ceasefire so ships can return to base at Diego Garcia and elsewhere to reload Tomahawks and other missiles remaining in US stockpile (reloading vertical launch missiles at sea is not possible; it can only be done in port or on land.)
  • WSJ: "It was Good Friday afternoon in a nearly empty West Wing soon after the president learned that an American jet had been shot down in Iran, with two airmen missing. Trump screamed at aides for hours. The Europeans aren’t helping, he said repeatedly. Gas prices averaged $4.09. Images of the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis—one of the biggest international policy failures of a presidency in recent times—had been looming large in his mind, people who have spoken to him said. “If you look at what happened with Jimmy Carter…with the helicopters and the hostages, it cost them the election,” Trump had said in March. “What a mess.” Trump demanded that the military go get them immediately. But the U.S. hadn’t been on the ground in Iran since the government overthrow that led to the hostage crisis, and they needed to figure out how to get into treacherous Iranian terrain and avoid Tehran’s own military. Aides kept the president out of the room as they got minute-by-minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful, instead updating him at meaningful moments, a senior administration official said." [13]
Comment: The reporting is BS, because it implies the pilot extraction operation was the reason for US presence on the ground in Iran, whereas an unprovoked invasion of Iran's sovereign borders to extract uranium "dust" was underway when the aircraft was shot down. The pilot extraction operation was used as cover in war propaganda to explain the failed uranium extraction operation that resulted in the destruction of 8 US aircraft. RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 13:50, April 21, 2026 (EDT)
"When a student of world politics says the world is unipolar or bipolar, that is a hypothesis about the polarity of the world. The wager of a unipolar world hypothesis is that there is no state in the international system that can put up a fight with the strongest state in the system. If a state does, in fact, put up a real fight with the strongest state in the system, then the hypothesis of a unipolar world has to be rejected...
"Specifically, if the US cannot suppress Iranian attacks across the gulf, if it cannot forcibly reopen the strait of Hormuz, that would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States. It would prove that the world is not unipolar, bipolar or tripolar, but rather multipolar, with Iran as a real pole of the international system. What will be the geopolitical consequences of this stunning turn of events?
"The only way in which the United States can evade outright defeat is by suppressing and degrading Iran’s ability to hold gulf assets at high levels of risk and keep Hormuz closed.1 If the US cannot, through either the direct application of force or indirectly through military coercion, accomplish this strategic objective, the outcome will be indistinguishable from strategic defeat, even if the war ends in a ceasefire, for then Iran would’ve demonstrated for all to see that the United States does not, in fact, have the military means to impose its will on the gulf."
"After threatening to blow up the country and kill all Iran’s leaders, Trump suddenly “extended the ceasefire indefinitely”.
"The United States military has dangerously depleted its stockpiles of critical missiles during the seven week war on Iran...Intense combat operations have exhausted a staggering portion of America’s most advanced weaponry, including at least 45% of its inventory of Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense interceptors, and over half of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles."
It could take up to six years for the US to replenish the spent munitions.
  • Report: US lost 39 aircraft in Epic Fury. [15] Including two dozen MQ-9 Reapers @ $30 million apiece.
At $1.5 Trillion we're not getting our money's worth.
 
Mad Max on the High Seas: Iranian Navy resurrected from the bottom of the sea. [1] 3 Questions: (!) Is American intelligence just stupid, or (2) they did not inform President Trump & Hegseth, or (3) are we being lied to?
"Iran has total disdain for Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and views him as both oblivious of diplomatic processes and totally ignorant of technical issues. Kushner is viewed by Iran as Israel’s man at the table. Iran, the senior official said, does not see any reason to deal with these two without a figure like Vice President JD Vance present."
::*Politico: "President DONALD TRUMP hasn’t stopped taking calls from reporters on his cell phone — sometimes several in one day — since the Iran war began. Aides say it’s a way for the president to make his feelings and positions clear — but the velocity of his comments, coming in often contradictory dribs and drabs, has at times generated confusion and deepened skepticism about whether the president has a plan or strategy to end the war. “He thinks he can use these reporters to move the markets or bully Iran, and sometimes it works, at least with the markets,” said one White House ally granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The problem is that he’s always saying different things. Maybe he’s trying to cover up not having a clear strategy or knowing how he’s going to end the war. But because he’s veering all over the place, that eventually becomes the main thing people see.”...Trump told a reporter who’d called the president’s personal cell phone that he was planning to send STEVE WITKOFF and JARED KUSHNER to Islamabad for another round of talks with Iran. Notably absent was any mention of Vice President JD VANCE, who’d led the delegation during an initial round of talks in Pakistan. The senior official said that omission had been unintentional but that “the reporter took him out of context and said, ‘Oh, he didn’t mention Vance, so Vance must be sidelined.’” By the time aides figured out what had happened, the reporting was already sparking speculation about Vance’s role inside the administration. Ultimately, the vice president had been ready to lead the delegation a second time, but Trump, facing his own self-imposed deadline, opted against sending anyone back for more talks and extended the ceasefire indefinitely. “When reporters call him, because he's very short with them on the phone, they might not get the full picture, and then they just run with it,” the senior official continued. So why, given the limitations of such short conversations, does Trump keep picking up the phone? “It's a desire to let people know where he stands and what he's thinking,” the senior official said. If it’s designed to win Americans’ hearts and minds, the strategy isn’t having much success, according to the polls. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday showed Trump’s overall approval rating down to 34 percent, a new low for his second term. Support for the Iran war was also at 34 percent, according to the survey."
Comment: Ordinarily, an interested & informed reader could be spared all this MSM claptrap. However, after several years of idiotic trolling by User:Conservative which brought Conservapedia traffic down from 700,000 unique views per month to 80,000, it's necessary to focus less on factual and analytical reporting and more on redundant MSM liberal claptrap, as User:Conservative requested. [16] RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 17:49, April 29, 2026 (EDT)
"But they won’t disarm Iran. And Iran will then strike back with unprecedented salvos from their substantial stockpiles. The state of affairs for the empire will go from bad to worse."
"Two interesting contradictory pathways are emerging for Trump on Iran, if we are to trust latest MSM reports. On one hand, new reports claim that Trump now sees the twin options of either total withdrawal from Iran or resumption of hostilities as equally bad. The reports claim he therefore prefers to now maintain the blockade indefinitely as the chief operative posture toward the Islamic Republic. But at the same time, Reuters reports the comical news that the Trump admin’s intelligence agencies are “examining” how Iran’s leadership will potentially react to Trump simply declaring a quick “victory” and pulling out of the conflict:
"JUST IN - U.S. intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if Trump were to declare a unilateral victory against Iran, and potentially pull back from the war — Reuters" [17] [Ed note: Gee whiz, I thought we didn't know who Iran's leadership is...]

"The implication here is obviously that Trump is considering doing so because he knows he has no cards and no further real options—a true zugzwang by any definition...."

Comment: It didn't have to be this way, but the obnoxious and sycophantic trolling of User:Conservative has made it difficult for Conservapedia, and what remains of its readership over the past few years, to have any meaningful input on the catastrophe that is overtaking America, the Trump administration, the conservative movement, and the Republican party. So what do we do? Stick with MSM claptrap, as User:Conservative desires, and abandon an independent voice? RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 22:45, April 29, 2026 (EDT)
"Iran carried out at least 5,471 missile and drone attacks targeting US bases and critical sites in seven Arab countries since Feb. 28...According to information compiled from defense ministries and official information centers of the affected countries, the United Arab Emirates was the most impacted. The UAE Defense Ministry said its systems intercepted 414 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles and 1,914 drones since the start of the attacks...."
"Iran has bombed U.S. bases across the Middle East in retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli war, forcing many American troops to relocate...Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable..."
"U.S. bombers, drones and ships have been fueled, armed and launched via bases in the U.K., Germany, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece, officials say. Attack drones are being directed from a sprawling U.S. base at Ramstein in Germany, the nerve center of America’s operations against Iran," making them parties to the war.
"Trump’s chaotic and isolated approach to the Iran War has caused rifts between the U.S. and many of its closest European allies. Topping that list is the Italians. Trump went into the Iran War without consulting allies and determining how they could support, and then turned around and criticized each of those allies for not helping. This put unnecessary strain on long-standing partnerships with the UK, Spain, France, and Italy. And Trump portraying himself as Jesus Christ and arguing with the pope, doesn’t even help with the non-religious crowd in Italy. As leaders like Giorgia Meloni begin withholding logistical and military cooperation, the U.S. will face major challenges in projecting military power abroad.


 
Peter Zeihan, one of liberal troll User:Conservative's major "qualified experts" on foreign policy and international relations. If a dunce like Zeihan can figure out what's happening, certainly people with IQs over 140 should be able to, as well.
Yet they whupped Trump & America's butt. The percentage of the population with flush toilets is the standard User:Conservative laboriously set to determine great power status. Trump's inept advisor John Bolton wanted to bomb Iran in 2019, but Trump's prefactual thinking told him Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz and cause a worldwide Depression. What's Trump's excuse now? He read Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future and got motivated?
According to St. Augustine, false pride is the Original sin committed by Lucifer - thinking that you are something you are not - like being all powerful. Whole nations can be guilty of sin before God just as individuals are. This is a moral question: Conservapedia should not be preaching false pride to young people.
“ He hath brought down the mighty and exalted the lowly ”

—Luke 1:52

RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 01:40, April 30, 2026 (EDT)

"Just weeks after President Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz “COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS” only to see ship traffic stall, the administration is now asking other countries to join a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate the waterway...The effort, called the “Maritime Freedom Construct”, was spelled out in an internal State Department cable sent to U.S. embassies on Tuesday that called on U.S. diplomats to press foreign governments into signing up."
 
Source: The Washington Post (Image: Google Earth)

In Yellow: Damaged US bases. [2] US military personnel were evacuated before strikes. Hiding in hotels and among civilians as human shields is a violation of the Geneva Convention and a war crime.
The American Empire's "alliance" is falling apart.
 
 
Iran War is first U.S. war the public never supported. The image shows two column charts stacked on top of each other. The top chart shows the starting net support for the last seven U.S. wars; the bottom chart shows the latest net support during each war. Here is each war with its starting and latest net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –30%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Polling data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–May 2026). [3]
 

Lebanon

Gulf States

  • Press TV: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has blamed US President Donald Trump for the economic fallout from the US-Israeli war on Iran, warning that it will conduct financial transactions in yuan if the Federal Reserve does not establish a currency swap line with the Emirati central bank. [22]
"The Emirates just traded 60 years of sovereignty to become a debt slave. Every country that ties its survival to American goodwill learns the same lesson eventually: the US doesn’t have allies, it has interests. And when those interests shift, you’re fresh outta luck...."
  • China receiving $15 Billion a week in capital inflow from the Gulf States.
Comment: Funny, it's not going to the City of London or Wall Street, the Gulf States' "protector". Analysis: US promises ain't worth diddly squat anymore.
Uh duh, really? De-dollarization advances while Trump keeps looking for a way to dress up a strategic defeat as a "win".
  • World's tallest skyscraper in Dubai lite up in white, red, and blue in honor of Russia Day, June 12. [24]

Middle East

  • "Iran has taken delivery by sea of a substantial shipment of CM‑302 supersonic anti‑ship cruise missiles from China, along with a large consignment of very advanced radar equipment from Russia. These systems are already on Iranian soil. In combination, they materially enhance Iran’s ability not only to defend its own airspace and coastline, but also to conduct offensive operations against major surface combatants, including large warships and carrier groups."

Ukraine

"It has slowly become increasingly apparent that Ukraine may be utilizing the airspace of NATO countries for its recent spate of strikes against Russia. Specifically, it is the permissive Baltics that appear to be allowing Ukrainian drones to transit toward sensitive Russian sites near the Gulf of Finland and beyond, then blaming Russia when the drones crash on their territory."
"The Russian Defense Ministry has released a new report citing dozens of key facilities in Western nations which are creating a veritable “rear” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, by manufacturing drones and other armaments for Ukraine. The key part of the official statement reads: 'We view this decision as a deliberate step leading to a sharp escalation of the military-political trend across the entire European continent and the gradual transformation of these countries into Ukraine’s strategic rear.' The full list of the companies and their addresses was then published by the Russian MOD."
"The flags were torn apart by Italians, and the provocative activists with their phones streaming were sent home with shouts of "get out, Nazis."
"commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrsky stated that the Russian army has already launched a large-scale spring summer offensive campaign on several directions of the front at once....he stressed that the Zaporozhe direction is one of the most important for the Russian army. According to General Syrsky, the Russian command has deployed five fresh brigades to the Zaporozhe direction. And these brigades did not come from other sectors of the front, but from central and southern Russia. General Syrsky claims that the arrival of such powerful enemy units to this sector of the front means that Russia is preparing for offensive actions to capture the city of Orav with subsequent access to the largest city in the region, Syrsky....the Russian army is advancing on the Zaporozhe front from three directions at once, from the southwest, south, and east. At the moment, two Russian groups are operating in the Zaporozhe direction."
Note the Ukrainska Pravda release comes a day after the Rada extends martial law and cancelled elections another 90 days.
"In fact, it isn’t so strange to observe convergence between Russian ultrapatriotic military bloggers and what seems to have been a Ukrainian psyop. Were one inclined to conspiratorial theories, one might speculate that Russian ultranationalists are working with the Ukrainians to destabilize Putin."


 
Golden Toilet scandal. Corruption Scandal Explained — Could Zelensky Be Next?
▪️The Russian Aerospace Forces detected a group of six UAVs in Latvia’s airspace.
▪️At the same time, two French Rafale fighter jets and two F-16 fighter jets were detected in the air.
➖”Around four o’clock in the morning, the tracks of five out of six detected UAVs disappeared in the area of the city of Rezekne in eastern Latvia. The sixth UAV, after entering Russian airspace, was shot down by Russian air defense systems in the area of the settlement of Likhachevo (78 km southeast of Pskov)”, - the message said.
▪️As a result of the examination of the fallen debris, the aerial target attacking from Latvia’s airspace was identified as an An-196 ‘Lutiy’ UAV of Ukrainian production.
  • The drones were reportedly filmed via multiple angles in the Latvian skies, and were identified clearly as Ukrainian drones of the Lyuti variety, the same drone used to hit Perm, Russia just days ago.
  • The Lyuti design and even sound are unmistakable.
  • One fell on an oil depot in Rezekne, and the other on a Riga-Daugavpils train.
  • But what was most interesting about this was that the Latvian authorities—via Brigadier General Egils Lescinskis—stated they refused to shoot down the drones due to the dangers it may pose to civilians:
  • Drones that flew into Latvia were not shot down due to a lack of certainty that this would not harm the civilian population or infrastructure, said the deputy head of the country’s Joint Staff for Operational Matters, Egils Lesčinskis.
  • However, they ultimately caused damage.
  • In other words, Latvia does not shoot down drones, but waves them right through to Russia territory.
  • This happens to be a very convenient excuse for letting Ukrainian drones transit their territory en route to Russia. The problem is, the drone appeared to target and successfully hit a Latvian oil storage tank, for reasons no one can explain.
With 2 million dead, liberals like User:Conservative are jumping for joy.
 
Image uploaded by the notorious sycophant User:Conservative, author of Essay: Why I am glad Andy Schlafly chose an American flag for the Conservapedia logo.

Transnistria

Europe

"The ideal balance of interests for Trump 2.0 would be to replace Germany with Poland as its top EU ally for fortifying NATO’s Eastern Flank and not oppose the AfD in the hopes that it’ll come to power and then lead Europe’s rejuvenation.
"Trump recently posted on social media that “The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of troops in Germany”. The Pentagon then confirmed that 5,000 will leave within the next year. This came around a week after Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, considered to be Trump 2.0’s military-strategic mastermind, praised Germany on social media for “taking the leading role” in accelerating the transition to “NATO 3.0”. These mixed signals deserve some elaboration.
"On the one hand, as Politico recently reported, it’s indeed true that “Berlin deepens military ties with Washington while Merz-Trump rift grows”. The preceding hyperlinked article importantly reports that “The U.S. military is placing a colonel in the German army’s Operations Division in an unusually close collaboration.” On the other hand, as was just touched upon, Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are also indeed in a heated feud over the Third Gulf War that likely influenced Trump’s post....
"conservative President Karol Nawrocki and the opposition with which this nominal independent is allied are doing their utmost to keep the US on board. One means to this end is encouraging more US involvement in the “Three Seas Initiative” as explained here. Nawrocki also presented himself as Europe’s conservative champion at this year’s CPAC, which this analysis here assessed to be motivated in part by wanting to assume this role before the AfD does.
"On that topic, the AfD supports a truly sovereign Europe while PiS (Poland’s conservative “Law & Justice” party with which Nawrocki is allied) supports a Europe in de facto junior partnership with the US, which is why the first called for the full withdrawal of US troops while the second wants more US troops. Closer US-German military ties of the sort that Colby recently praised would thus lead to Trump 2.0 opposing the AfD while weaker ties of the sort that Trump threatened could increase sympathy for it.
"The first expectation is self-explanatory while the second is premised on the National Security Strategy’s support for like-minded conservative-nationalists that want to avert Europe’s “civilizational erasure”. Trump 2.0 must thus decide whether it prefers to implement “NATO 3.0” through Europe’s ruling liberal-globalists or accept compromises on this policy in favor of saving Europe from itself by supporting conservative-nationalists who might oppose continued US hegemony over Europe like the AfD does.
"Where Germany goes, so too goes most of Europe, so the choice that the US makes will either help or harm the AfD. The ideal balance of interests for Trump 2.0 would be to replace Germany with Poland as its top EU ally for fortifying NATO’s Eastern Flank and not oppose the AfD in the hopes that it’ll come to power and then lead Europe’s rejuvenation."
  • Neutral Austria intercepts 2 US fighter jets 2 days in a row. [32] Austria is not a member of NATO.
Historically speaking, this did not work out so well for Europe the last time.
For the record, I had a months-long debate/discussion with Rationalwiki founders over exactly this subject while they were pitching Obamacare. I pointed out how Europe & NATO were freeloading off the US. Trump stole my material, while User:Conservative & Andy barred me for being a "useful idiot of an atheist website" just for being able to engage in rational discussion with them. RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 12:53, May 18, 2026 (EDT)

Russia & China

Comment: Oh wow. After a million dead at the hands of America & NATO, you think Russia is ready to form an alliance with the US to counter China's stranglehold on rare earth's, and castrating America's bluster about defending Taiwan?
Russia, like China has a future

Last time I talked about how the West (the US) tends to project its own problems onto China, assuming for example, that there are various “crises” in China, just as there are or have been in the American “market”.

The difference is really between economies that are financialized so success is measured in numbers, increased value of stocks and bonds and economies where success is understood in productivity and improvement of public life.

Such projection is a sad mistake in the case of China. The US falls behind year by year— despite what Google says.

We can also see something similar in the case of Western assessments of the Russian economy. The West simply doesn’t learn.

First, sanctions were supposed to cut Russia off at the ankles.

That failed, as you know.

Then, came the argument that Russia’s was a “war economy” and would collapse under the weight of massive expenditures

But the economy grew. It was the economies of the West that came under pressure. Ukraine was a blackhole sucking cash into an alternate universe.

Then, this year Western analysts leaped for joy to see what looked like a “cooling” of the Russian economy, : “See, we were right”.

No, wrong again.

They would have been right, if Russia were the US of A. Or if their economic predictions were not just wishful thinking.

Russia’s current economic “downturn” as it repetitively called — actually reflects progress: it is what you would expect in an economy that is shifting its orientation, adapting, evolving and developing in new directions.

The Russian government, specifically top officials like Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and President Vladimir Putin, frame the country’s mild deceleration—where GDP growth projections fell to 0.4%—not as a failure, but as a deliberate, progressive milestone.

How could that be?

Normalization and “Cyclical Correction” Natural Post-Boom Reset:

The slowdown is healthy stabilization after a boom period which has been accompanies by rapid change, the lessons of which must be absorbed. ..

Soft Landing and directed development:

This slowdown is deliberate and controlled, starting with central bank monetary tightening to curb inflation and rein in raw growth in favor of stable and directed development in specific areas, some of which are new and require new goals.

Economic dynamics are cyclical in market economies. After high growth, there is always a correction. Boom and bust would be normal for a Western economy. In Russia, there had been a boom, but the country avoided a “bust”.

Rather. Russia entered a recovery period after intense activity, rather like an athlete needs rest after training hard. This is a normal stage for the economy. It’s like training for sports. After intense training, you need a change of pace, before returning stronger and better.

No good will come from forcing yourself until you drop.

Structural Transformation: The slowdown is categorized as a necessary friction period while shifting the entire economic architecture, transitioning to a “supply-side” economic model, strengthening the social and industrial base.

Domestic Supply: Russia is successfully building an autonomous “supply-side economy.” The cooling phase allows resources to be reallocated to new, internal manufacturing chains.

Import substitution: Russia is no longer dependent on Western sources for many products to support its industry. A good example is the MC21 aircraft which uses no foreign components and has avoided the problems afflicting tits Chinese equivalent, the COMAC C919 which is hobbled by supply chain issues as a result of its reliance on foreign components.

Deliberate Redistribution of Wealth The collapse of the USSR led to massive redistribution of wealth into the hands of nomenklatura who became the “infamous” oligarchs. Putin was able to purge some of them and bring the rest to heel, more or less, since they were necessary to keep the economy functioning.

But the SVO offers opportunities to weed the garden and promote meritocracy.

Labor Structural Shifts: That so-called “downturn” allows a shift in how GDP is apportioned. .

In 2022, corporate profits surged, but today’s economy features a higher share of labor compensation, which amounts to progressive redistribution empowering ordinary workers and offering improvements domestic income.

This has been accompanied by aggressive prosecution of corruption at all levels and in all areas.

Strategic Budget Consolidation Conservative Risk Planning: The downward adjustments in growth forecasts are based on conservative assumptions, such as pricing baseline oil budgets at just $50–59 per barrel. – a fiscal restraint which safeguards state funds – and is not in any way a symptom of an organic economic “crisis”, as some Western analysts suggest.

Pivot to New Global Alliances Geoeconomic Sovereignty: The slowdown as a foundation for long-term, sanctions-proof growth.

It also reflects Russia’s commitment to the BRICS alliance, with a focus on Africa, and Asia, insulating Russia to some degree from the effects of turmoil in Western markets.

Developmental goals Rather than rely on foreign capital as the US does, leveraging the dollar as a reserve currency to get corporations around the world to buy US treasuries and invest in Wall Street, the Russian state injects capital into civilian and domestic infrastructure, rather than dead-weight military consumption.

Military budgets are carefully structured to yield spinoff benefits for the rest of the economy in terms of new technologies—automation, AI, robotics, new materials.

Putting aside the military, the development of Russia’s industrial and infrastructural base is multi-faceted.

Multiple use logistics Immense capital has been diverted to build the “International North–South Transport Corridor” (INSTC) and expand the Eastern Range (Baikal-Amur Mainline and Trans-Siberian Railway).

Long-term economic benefits: This represents a permanent pivot to Asia and the Middle East. While it temporarily cools liquid economic growth, it builds long-term commercial capacity.

Civilian / Military overlap: deep-water ports, and highways expansion will lower domestic business costs for decades, besides providing military supply.

De-centralization and Regional Development Subsidizing the Hinterlands: Russia’s far-flung regional economies benefit from massive budget transfers away from Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Industrial Reshoring: Funding regional factories, specialized economic zones, and local connectivity reduces regional inequality and stimulates domestic competition and growth.

Long-term balance: Short-term economic downturn is natural enough with the state forcibly shifting wealth from financial services to domestic manufacturing hubs, which temporarily reduces short-term output but builds a more balanced internal economy.

Human and Social Capital Demographic Stabilization: Resources are being redirected to human and social capital and . These include education, multi-child family subsidies, low-interest mortgage programs, and veteran pension frameworks. The aim is reverse demographic decline and encourage productivity at the community level.

Labor Retention: Increasing funding for health, welfare, and education preserves and upgrade the domestic workforce, improving productivity, workplace creativity and innovation.

Technological Leadership and Import Substitution National Projects The Russian state funds “Technological Leadership Projects” in fields like domestic IT, AI, new materials, digitaliztion, civil aviation, medicine, and precision engineering.

Long-Term ROI heavy capital expenditure hurts a nation’s wallet in the short term and GDP growth rates. However, it generates an immense return on investment (ROI) once the results begin to bear fruit, which often takes some time, as was the case with FDR’s development programs, whose benefits took more than a decade to be realized.

FDR was able to leverage WWII to achieve maximum results. Putin is leveraging the SVO and the hybrid war with the West.

That said, you will find that the MSM contradicts almost everything I have said. They continue to insist Russia is failing.

"when Trump arrived in Beijing the plane was met at the airport by China’s Vice Premier (or Vice President in some reports) and other senior Chinese officials rather than President Xi Jinping himself...Compare that to the honors accorded to Vladimir Putin. Xi Jinping personally greeted him on arrival..."

The Sahel

"Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop confirmed late last week that the opening phase of the ongoing insurgency by terrorist-designated “Azawad Liberation Front” (FLA) Tuareg separatists and “Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin” (JNIM) radical Islamists was a failed decapitation strike. The Defense Minister was killed and the intelligence chief critically injured... the Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) continued to resist the insurgents....His other comments saw him accuse Ukraine and unnamed countries, likely a reference to the US, France, and Algeria, of providing logistical support to insurgents...."
Comment: The advantage for the US, Ukraine, France, et al in providing logistical support to terrorist groups (ISIS, Azov Battalion, MEK, etc) is that terrorist proxies are not bound to the "humane rules of war" in an asymmetrical, hybrid war. And it doesn't really matter if the voters discover this in a "democracy" with rigged elections.

Americas

This is exactly the sort of crap User:Conservative has contaminated Conservapedia with in dozens of his hate screeds.

Economy

General observations and trends through May 2026

Why is the story suppressed?
  1. It paid the toll and will not be hi-jacked on the open sea by the US Navy as Trump promised;
  2. It paid for the load in yuan, furthering dedollarization and threatening America's status as "the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future" (too bad Conservapedia wasted 4 years in not being able to prepare readers how to avoid this eventuality. It was that cocky attitude that got us into this mess and now can't get us out.).
Ya think? And it all started with the stolen 2020 election so globalists could start WWIII, which Trump was able to delay in his first term. Congrats, User:Conservative. We discussed this many times together on the phone. RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 21:42, April 30, 2026 (EDT)

Islamo socialist Mamdani failing NYC in Crisis: Business Leaders Now Begging Billionaires Not to Flee the City RedState.com| May 08, 2026.

The flight of the productive from our major cities has been going on for a while now, but nothing seems to pour accelerant on that flight faster than the election of a "democratic socialist" (you can read that as "communist") mayor, which is what has happened in New York and Seattle. In New York, in particular, anyone with a net worth in the black is looking to the exits, as Mayor Zohran Mamdani seems determined to knock the Big Apple's economy clean out and then go through its pockets for loose change.

One business leader, determined to remain in New York, is appealing to fleeing New York billionaires to come back. [35]LaMarina (talk) 15:06, May 8, 2026 (EDT)

"Gas prices smash $4.99 a gallon and head straight for $5+ across America"
Comment: It's the same as the Biden regime's old "Putin Price-hike" narrative psyop, only the Ayatollah is dead and prices have only risen ever since. RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 17:22, May 9, 2026 (EDT)

Dedollarization

"We have an economic negative, we have a political negative, and a huge reputational damage because China will come out ahead, Russia will come out ahead, BRICS will come out ahead, the Global South will come out ahead. Everyone's pivoting away from the US. In fact, it was just announced earlier this week, you know, that the French have finalized the removal of all their gold they have in the United States. That pivot is one of many little symptomatic things that's happening."
"From April 17 to April 20, Democrats led Republicans 52% to 48% on the question of who would do a better job handling the economy, according to the poll. Democrats have not beaten Republicans on this question since May 5, 2010, when the party led 44% to 41% against Republicans. The poll found that 34% of registered voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 66% disapproved. Trump’s overall approval rating dropped in the poll from 49% in March 2025 to 42% in April."
Comment: After years and years of Conservapedia allowing deliberate, divisive trolling, Conservapedia has wasted time and never developed organizational plans for how to deal with lagging polls. In past even numbered election years, Conservapedia could point to evidence that it had an impact in some election outcomes. Not anymore, and largely due to the free license and encouragement that management has given to persistent, disruptive trolling of other editors' work. RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 18:47, April 23, 2026 (EDT)
"The United States behaved like barbarians during the Israeli war against Iran. Its president, Donald Trump, claimed responsibility for attacking civilians, even though just a month earlier he had been saying he wanted to liberate them. He went so far as to threaten to eradicate Iranian civilization, despite his ambition to receive the Nobel Peace Prize.
"By acting in this way, Washington not only violated the UN Charter, but also forced some of its allies to discover that it was not their protector, but rather, that it was dragging them into a war they had not chosen.
"The President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, first stated that “the total destruction of areas and the certain death of groups of people which, until now, had not been considered as possible targets” (S/2026/141) were being seriously considered. Then, on April 7, 2026 [1], he publicly and explicitly threatened to annihilate Iranian civilization, in violation of Article 2.4 of the Charter of the United Nations...."
 
In the old days, Gulf States used to sell oil in dollars to buy T-Bills in a "protection racket" ("security guarantees") and finance the federal deficit. No mas. After the destruction of all US military bases in the ME in March 2026, [4] they now sell US Treasuries, which increases the cost of financing the US national debt by putting upward pressure on interest rates.
"If proof was ever needed that the stock market is not the same thing as the US economy, the 20% rise in the S&P 500 index since January 2o, 2025 should be dispositive."
"Shale wells lose 60–70% of their oil within the first year."
"approximately 7 billion ton-miles of freight moves by truck each and every day in the USA, which heavy truck fleet consumes upwards of 2.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) of diesel fuel....the price of diesel fuel was about $3.55/gallon both a year ago and as of early January 2026, but has since soared by more than+$2.00 per gallon to around $5.60 recently. That’s a 56% rise in the cost of pumping goods and commodities through the arteries of the US economy. On an annualized basis, the diesel fuel bill for the US truck fleet went from $155 billion per year to $250 billion per year at current oil prices...."


Supply chain crisis

▸ Feb 2026 → Iran war disrupts supply ▸ June 2026 → Inventories hit 7.6B barrels (Operational Stress Level) ▸ Sept 2026 → Inventories hit 6.8B barrels (Operational Floor) That last number isn’t a warning. It’s the minimum required to keep pipelines pressurized and refineries alive.

"At a Xiaomi electric vehicle facility outside Beijing, the production line barely resembled a traditional factory. Robots dominated the assembly process. Human workers mostly monitored systems through tablets and control stations. Executives told me the plant could produce one vehicle every 67 seconds."
Why did all these powerful people go with Trump to kneel in China?

The answer is access to rare materials.

The reality is that Tesla, Apple, Boeing, GE Aerospace, and all the others desperately need China, while Beijing structurally needs them less and less.

China controls 70% of global extraction, 85% of refining, 90% of permanent magnets, and 99% of dysprosium and terbium, without which no F-35 fighter jet takes off, no MRI machine works, and no iPhone starts up.

And the card with which the US could blackmail China - semiconductors - is already completely exhausted. SMIC produces 7nm chips using DUV multipatterning, Huawei’s Ascend competes with Nvidia on AI inference, QiMeng designs RISC-V chips via AI, and SMEE has announced its first domestic EUV machine for 2027.

The US is now totally dependent on China and its military machine without China will completely fail.

(A) Robotics replacing human labor productivity;
(B) Labor productivity needs raw materials to work on.
  • Question: What does "China controls 70% of global extraction and 85% of refining" mean? It means China not only controls the vast majority of rare earth mineral reserves in the ground, they also control the process of extracting and processing the raw rare earths from rock with the knowledge, experience, patented processes and specialized equipment.

. The Global Reagent Squeeze: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities in Critical Mineral Processing

1. Introduction: The Invisible Constriction

The global transition toward electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and advanced defence technologies has historically been analysed predominantly through the lens of geological scarcity.

Market forecasts, geopolitical strategies, and corporate risk assessments have focused intensively on the availability of physical reserves of copper, nickel, lithium, rare-earth elements, and uranium.

International

However, the cascading geopolitical industrial events of 2025 and early 2026 have exposed a flaw in this traditional analytical framework: the severe vulnerability of the critical minerals sector lies in the reliable availability of the highly specific chemical reagents required to process it into refined metal

The mining industry is witnessing an accelerated structural shift from geological scarcity to chemical input bottlenecks, where the architecture of modern metallurgy is being severely constrained by the geopolitical and logistical realities of the global reagent supply chain.

Modern mineral processing relies on highly specialised hydrometallurgical and physiochemical techniques.

Processes such as solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) for copper oxide ores, high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) for lateritic nickel, and in-situ recovery (ISR) for uranium demand vast, continuous volumes of high-purity sulphuric acid Furthermore, the separation of rare earth elements requires multi-stage applications of specialised organophosphorus solvent extractants, while primary gold extraction remains dependent on the supply of sodium cyanide

As global ore grades steadily decline, copper ore grades alone have fallen by approximately 40% since 1991. Mining operations are forced to process exponentially more waste rock to yield the same volume of target metal.

This lower grades increases reagent consumption per tonne of finished product, tightening the industry's dependence on chemical manufacturers.

While we readily understand that we need many inputs to manufacture a product, we fail to see a similar process in the production of our finished metals.

The Metals-versus-Food Paradox

The central paradox of our age is now impossible to ignore.

The global transition to electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and advanced defence technologies was intended to free humanity from dependence on fossil fuels.

Yet the chemical reagents that make this transition possible are not new green inventions; they are direct by-products of the fossil-fuel economy itself. And today these same reagents have become the arena for an unforgiving contest between two of civilisation’s most basic imperatives: feeding eight billion people and powering the electrified world.

The molecule at the heart of the conflict is sulphuric acid. It is the single most important chemical input for almost every major hydrometallurgical process in modern mining.

It leaches copper from oxide ores in Chile and Africa, dissolves nickel and cobalt from laterite deposits in Indonesia, extracts uranium in Kazakhstan, and separates rare-earth elements.

At the same time, sulphuric acid is the primary feedstock used to convert phosphate rock into phosphate fertilisers, the nutrients that sustain global agriculture. More than half of all sulphuric acid produced on Earth (55–60 %) is consumed by the fertiliser industry. Mining, even at the peak intensity required by the energy transition, accounts for only a fraction of total demand.

This creates a direct, molecule-for-molecule competition. Every extra tonne of copper cathode, nickel mixed hydroxide precipitate, or uranium yellowcake produced through acid-intensive methods consumes acid that could otherwise have been used to make fertiliser.

The dual shocks of 2026, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to elemental sulphur shipments and China’s comprehensive ban on sulphuric acid exports have turned this latent competition into an immediate, zero-sum geopolitical triage.

Governments facing hungry populations have already begun choosing food security over metal security. Export controls in Zambia, domestic redirection of acid in Indonesia, and internal prioritisation orders in Chile are no longer exceptions; they are the new operating reality. When fertiliser prices surge 40–70 %, and crop-yield forecasts fall, political leaders make the same ancient choice: they feed their people first.

This is the deeper tragedy of our moment. In our urgent drive to decarbonise and escape fossil fuels, we have deepened our dependence on the chemical supply chains the fossil economy created, supply chains that great-power competition can now weaponise at will.

Geological scarcity of metals was always a technical problem that could, in theory, be solved. The contest between metals and food is a profound civilisational dilemma. The invisible constriction is no longer confined to remote mine sites. It is now written in the stark arithmetic of calories versus kilowatt-hours.

This vulnerability has been activated by two converging geopolitical shocks in the first half of 2026.

First, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping severed the primary artery for global elemental sulphur trade, paralysing a supply chain that originates predominantly in Middle Eastern hydrocarbon refineries

Second, China implemented a comprehensive export ban on by-product sulphuric acid, seeking to ringfence domestic supply for its own agricultural and industrial sectors

Together, these events have orchestrated a dual supply shock that is about to choke the operations of base metal, precious metal, and battery material producers in their most critical chemical inputs.

The crisis is redefining the cost curves of global mining, triggering production downgrades, and proving conclusively that resource security cannot be achieved without integrated chemical supply chain resilience.

2. The Catalyst: Strait of Hormuz and the Sulphur Shock

Elemental sulphur is the foundational feedstock for the vast majority of global sulphuric acid production.

Unlike most mined commodities, sulphur is rarely extracted as a primary resource; rather, it is a compulsory byproduct recovered during the desulphurization of crude oil and the sweetening of sour natural gas, mandated by stringent environmental emissions standards

Because it is a byproduct of hydrocarbon refining, global sulphur production, which reached approximately 83.87 million metric tons in 2025, cannot be scaled up in response to rising price signals from the mining or agricultural sectors.

The critical vulnerability of this global market is its extreme geographic concentration.

The Middle East accounts for approximately 24% of total global sulphur production, but critically, the region controls roughly 50% of the world’s seaborne sulphur trade

Major processing facilities in Saudi Arabia (such as Jubail), the United Arab Emirates (Ruwais), and Qatar dominate international export volumes.

Consequently, the commercial blockade and escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, initiated by the conflict involving Iran in late February 2026, effectively paralysed the world’s primary sulphur export artery.

The maritime disruption led to a large contraction in global trade. In March 2026 alone, global sulphur loadings onto dry bulk carriers collapsed by an estimated 31.2% month-on-month, falling to just 1.5 million tonnes

Export volumes in the Persian Gulf plummeted by nearly 65.9% in a single month. Because approximately 90% of ocean sulphur cargoes are transported on geared tonnage, specifically Handysize, Supramax, and Ultramax vessels, this segment has been disproportionately impacted by war-risk insurance premiums and route diversions.

The price response for spot sulphur prices delivered to the Mediterranean surged from ~ $155 per metric ton to over ~$400 per metric ton

In Asia, delivered prices into Indonesia spiked past $800 per metric ton, with some cargoes clearing as high as $1,000 per metric ton, compared to pre-conflict baselines of ~$500

For the mining industry, which relies on consistent, high-volume deliveries of elemental sulphur to feed acid-burning plants located at remote mine sites, this represents a supply shock. Mining operations can’t pivot to alternative feedstocks quickly; establishing new supply lines from North America or an alternative European refinery byproducts carries logistics premiums of $80 to $150 per metric ton.

3. The Multiplier: China’s Sulphuric Acid Export Ban

If the Strait of Hormuz blockade constrained the upstream supply of elemental sulphur, policy actions by China simultaneously suffocated the downstream supply of refined sulphuric acid.

China is the world’s largest producer and exporter of sulphuric acid, generating ~120 million tons annually against a total capacity of 141 million tons

In 2025, Chinese exports of chemicals surged by 73% year-on-year to reach 4.65 million tonnes, establishing the nation as the vital balancing mechanism for global acid

However, China’s vast domestic phosphate fertiliser industry, which accounts for the majority of internal acid consumption, competes directly with the export market.

Faced with soaring global sulphur prices and the imperative to secure domestic food production ahead of the spring planting season, Beijing intervened aggressively.

In early 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission implemented strict export quotas, limiting January-to-April outbound shipments to just 700,000 tonnes, a precipitous drop from the 1.3 million tonnes exported during the same period in 2025

This quota was quickly followed by a comprehensive export ban on by-product sulphuric acid, which took effect on May 1, 2026. The removal of nearly 3 million annualised tonnes from the seaborne market cannot be seamlessly replaced by other regional producers. It’s also the velocity of the change that wrongfoots users, with almost-instantaneous logistics shortages that take time to resolve.

While Japan, South Korea, and India collectively possess some excess capacity, their combined ability to increase exports is estimated at a mere 500,000 tonnes, falling vastly short of the deficit created by China’s sudden withdrawal

This sudden policy shift operates as a crisis multiplier for the global mining sector.

The vast majority of China’s exported acid is generated as a byproduct of its massive domestic copper and zinc smelting industries. By trapping this acid within its borders, China forces international mining operations, particularly in Latin America and Africa, into a hyper-competitive spot market, where agricultural and industrial buyers bid up prices for dwindling global inventory.

This dynamic has severed traditional trade flows, leaving operations that rely on merchant acid procurement dangerously exposed to margin collapse.

4. The Structural Shift in Base Metal Economics

The convergence of the Hormuz sulphur shock and the Chinese acid ban is rewriting the economics of base metal extraction. The crisis highlights a critical distinction in modern mining resilience: the divergence between pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical processing routes.

Operations that mine sulphide ores and process them through traditional smelting possess an inherent “natural hedge.” The smelting of sulphide concentrates produces sulphur dioxide gas, which is captured and converted into sulphuric acid on-site These integrated facilities generate byproduct acid, partially insulating them from the global supply squeeze, and occasionally allowing them to profit as merchant sellers.

For example, Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula complex in the DRC operates an on-site smelter that produces 1,350 tonnes of high-strength sulphuric acid per day, creating a highly lucrative byproduct credit that drastically lowers its C1 cash costs to $2.58/lb of copper. Ivanhoe Mines, “Ivanhoe Mines Issues 2026 First Quarter Financial Results,” May 6, 2026.

Conversely, operations exploiting oxide ores or complex laterites through hydrometallurgical leaching are entirely dependent on massive external reagent inputs. As ore grades decline globally, the reliance on acid-intensive leaching to extract economic value from marginal deposits has increased substantially.

This structural reliance has transformed sulphuric acid from a low-profile, background consumable into the primary rate-limiting factor for global metal production

The financial transmission mechanism is highly compressed; a delay in sulphur shipments from the Middle East directly reduces acid availability at the leach pad within weeks, compressing quarterly output and immediately impacting producer earnings independently of the spot price

The cost curve for global copper and nickel production has shifted upward, permanently altering the baseline economics of the energy transition.

Methods Box: Measuring Reagent Brittleness

To quantify the supply chain vulnerabilities detailed in this report, we utilised our own metric, the Reagent Brittleness Index (RBI).

This framework evaluates the fragility of specific mining operations by analysing their dependence on critical chemical inputs, independent of underlying geological or reserve-based metrics.

The RBI relies heavily on observable supply chain data and operational parameters to construct a risk profile. It’s a risk-scoring system for evaluating miners’ reagent risks.

Import Dependency: Measures the percentage of required reagents (e.g., elemental sulphur, concentrated acid, specific solvent extractants) sourced from geostrategically volatile regions, penalising over-reliance on single transit chokepoints.

Process Intensity: Calculates the absolute volume of reagent consumed per tonne of refined metal produced (e.g., tonnes of H2SO4 per tonne of Cu cathode or Ni MHP). Higher intensity exponentially increases exposure to price shocks.

Supplier Concentration: Evaluates the diversity of the vendor base for highly specialised, difficult-to-substitute chemicals, such as organophosphorus extractants used in rare earth separation.

Storage Capacity & Logistics: Assesses the on-site inventory buffer (measured in operational days) and the complexity of the delivery corridor, acknowledging that corrosive and toxic reagents cannot be rapidly stockpiled or rerouted.

There are other considerations that could be added, but these are the majors

5. Copper SX-EW: The Acid Test in Chile and Africa

The solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) process is responsible for roughly one-fifth of the world’s primary refined copper production, representing an estimated 4 to 5 million tonnes annually technology operates by irrigating crushed oxide ores on lined heap leach pads with a weak sulphuric acid solution.

This pregnant leach solution (PLS) is gathered, concentrated using organic solvent extractants (often phenolic oximes), and subjected to an electrical current to deposit 99.99% pure copper cathodes

The chemical demands of this process are immense. Depending on the mineralogy and acid-consuming gangue materials present in the ore, SX-EW operations require between 1.5 and 2.0 tonnes of sulphuric acid per tonne of copper cathode produced

For regions heavily reliant on this processing route, the disruption to global acid flows is devastating.

Top exposed copper regions:

Chile: As the world's largest copper producer, Chile generates over 1.1 million tonnes of its copper output

To sustain this, the country imports more than 1 million tonnes of sulphuric acid annually, with China serving as the primary supplier (accounting for roughly 37% of imports)

Chinese shipments to Chile plummeted from 151,268 tonnes in March 2025 to 31,870 tonnes in February 2026, and to absolute zero Consequently, spot prices for delivered acid in Mejillones skyrocketed by 44% in a single month, doubling since February Without access to Chinese merchant acid, operators are forced to throttle leach pad irrigation, directly threatening a significant contraction in national cathode output.

DRC: The central African copperbelt is heavily skewed toward hydrometallurgy, with SX-EW accounting for roughly half of the DRC's copper output

The region imports approximately 2 million tonnes of elemental sulphur annually to feed captive acid-burning plants Delivered trucking costs from the port of Dar es Salaam to Kolwezi run high; with maritime disruptions, landed sulphur prices approached $900 per tonne, resulting in synthetic acid costs nearing $300 per tonne, while merchant delivered acid prices reached $1,000–$1,400 per tonne

Zambia: Closely linked to the DRC's processing ecosystem, Zambia suffers from the same logistical premiums and sulphur blockades. In response to localised shortages, the Zambian government instituted a strict, permit-based export control system for sulphuric acid, further balkanising regional supply and preventing the free flow of reagents across the copperbelt.

6. Nickel HPAL: The Indonesian Sulphur Dependency

The global nickel market's expansion, driven predominantly by the electric vehicle battery sector, rests almost entirely on the proliferation of High-Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) facilities in Indonesia. HPAL technology utilises aggressive conditions, high temperatures (up to 250°C) and extreme pressures to dissolve nickel and cobalt from low-grade lateritic ores, ultimately precipitating a mixed hydroxide precipitate

The reagent intensity of HPAL is staggering. The process requires between 25 and 30 tons of sulphuric acid per ton of MHP produced, translating to approximately 10 to 12 tonnes of elemental sulphur required per tonne of contained nickel

Because Indonesian ores often possess high magnesium content, which is highly acid-consuming, the chemical efficiency of these operations is inherently brittle and highly wasteful, generating 1.2 to 1.6 tonnes of wet tailings per tonne of nickel. Indonesia produces over 50% of the world’s nickel but possesses minimal domestic sulphur resources. To feed the captive acid plants attached to its HPAL complexes, the country imported 5.35 million tonnes of elemental sulphur in 2025

Crucially, between 75% and 80% of this import volume originates in the Middle East, specifically Saudi Arabia (1.76 million tonnes), Qatar (930,500 tonnes), and the UAE

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the extreme fragility of this localised boom. Major Indonesian MHP producers, operating with minimal sulphur inventory buffers of only one to two months, were forced into immediate operational distress

Delivered sulphur prices in Indonesia spiked past $800 per tonne, with traders reporting spot deals reaching $1,000 per tonne, Reuters, “Indonesia nickel makers trim battery-feed output,” April 14, 2026.

The surge in feedstock costs added an estimated $4,000 per tonne to the cost of Indonesian HPAL nickel production, severely compressing margins and pushing LME nickel prices to 11-week highs

In response, major operators, including Huafei Nickel Cobalt (a subsidiary of Huayou), were forced to place up to half of their MHP capacity on temporary care and maintenance, citing unsustainable input costs

7. Uranium ISR: Kazatomprom’s Acid Deficit

The uranium sector represents another critical node paralysed by the reagent squeeze. In 2022, over 56% of global uranium was mined via in-situ recovery

In situ leach mining of uranium. This technique involves injecting chemical leaching solutions directly into underground, porous sandstone aquifers to dissolve the uranium, then pumping the pregnant solution to the surface for extraction, resulting in virtually zero surface tailings.

Kazakhstan, which dominates global supply with nearly 40% of the world’s uranium output, relies exclusively on ISR, Kazatomprom.

Unlike ISR operations in the United States that utilise alkaline leaching due to carbonate-heavy geology, or Australian operations that utilise hydrogen peroxide oxidants, Kazakh ISR relies on highly concentrated injections of pure sulphuric acid into the orebody.

The national operator, Kazatomprom, consumed approximately 1.85 million tonnes of sulphuric acid in 2025

As domestic agricultural demand for phosphate fertilisers competes for limited national acid supply, and regional imports become constrained by the broader global sulphur deficit and Russian export bans, Kazatomprom’s ambitious expansion plans have faltered. The company was forced to aggressively downgrade its 2025 production guidance from an anticipated 30,500–31,500 tonnes of uranium (tU) down to a revised 25,000–26,500 tU (on a 100% basis)

This shortfall of roughly 5,000 tU, or approximately 13 million pounds of U3O8, represents a massive contraction equivalent to nearly 5% of primary global supply

Operations such as the Budenovskoye joint venture have seen output targets drastically curtailed, dropping from 4,000 tonnes to 1,300 tonnes in 2025 and from 6,000 tonnes to 3,750 tonnes in 2026. Kazatomprom, “Financial Results,” 2025.

Furthermore, Kazatomprom announced that its 2026 production target would be cut by 10%, reducing nominal output from 32,777 tU to 29,697 tU

To mitigate this crippling dependency, Kazatomprom is accelerating the construction of a dedicated 800,000-tonne-per-year domestic sulphuric acid plant (Taiqonyr Qyshqyl Zauyty LLP) in the Turkestan region, though this strategic buffer will not reach full operational capacity until late 2026. Kazatomprom,

8. Rare Earth Elements: The Specialised Extractant Chokepoint

While base metals and uranium are constrained by the bulk tonnage of sulphuric acid, the rare earth element (REE) sector is bottlenecked by highly specialised, low-volume organic chemistry.

The 17 rare earth elements possess nearly identical physical and chemical properties, with ionic radii ranging from 0.88 to 1.02

Separating them from a mixed mineral concentrate into high-purity individual oxides requires vast arrays of solvent extraction mixer-settler units, often numbering in the hundreds or thousands of stages

This separation process is entirely dependent on specific organophosphorus extractants that selectively chelate target metal ions. For light rare earths, Di-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid (D2EHPA or P204) is the industry standard

For the highly valuable heavy rare earths, such as dysprosium and terbium, critical for permanent magnets in wind turbines and EV motors, advanced reagents like 2-ethylhexylphosphonic acid mono-2-ethylhexyl ester (P507 / PC-88A) and bis(2,4,4-trimethylpentyl)phosphinic acid (Cyanex 272) are mandatory to achieve commercial-grade purity levels above 99.5% MDPI These extractants rely on petrochemical precursors and sophisticated chemical synthesis. Currently, China controls an estimated 85% of the global manufacturing capacity for these specialised chemicals, alongside dominance in crucial precipitants like oxalic acid (exporting nearly 298 million kg globally in 2023) and ammonium chloride

The Western ambition to build an independent "mine-to-magnet" supply chain is fundamentally hollow without a secure, non-Chinese source for these extraction reagents.

If a newly commissioned Western refinery relies entirely on Chinese-manufactured P507 to separate its heavy rare earths, the geopolitical dependency has merely shifted downstream from the ore to the chemical input

Furthermore, operations outside China, such as Lynas Rare Earths' Kalgoorlie cracking and leaching plant in Western Australia, face compounding infrastructure risks; recent severe power grid disruptions in November 2025 caused significant shortfalls in mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) output, underscoring the fragility of complex, reagent-dependent continuous processing facilities operating outside established industrial clusters

9. Gold Cyanidation: The Ammonia-Gas Link

Gold mining relies on chemical processing as heavily as base metals, predominantly utilising sodium cyanide (NaCN) in vat leaching, heap leaching, and carbon-in-pulp (CIP) circuits. Sodium cyanide forms highly stable, water-soluble aurocyanide complexes, allowing for extraction efficiencies frequently exceeding 90% even from microscopic gold particles dispersed in complex gangue

While theoretical cyanide consumption can be as low as 0.5 grams per gram of gold, real-world operations typically consume 25 to 50 grams of cyanide per gram of gold due to the presence of reactive copper minerals and iron sulphides that consume the reagent.

Globally, the gold mining sector consumes in excess of 1 million tonnes of sodium cyanide annually, accounting for roughly 85% of total NaCN demand

The supply chain for sodium cyanide is intrinsically tied to global petrochemical and energy markets.

The dominant commercial production route, the Andrussow process, synthesises high-purity hydrogen cyanide from ammonia, natural gas (methane), and air over a platinum-rhodium catalyst at extreme temperatures (approx. 1050°C).

The hydrogen cyanide is subsequently neutralised with sodium hydroxide to yield solid sodium cyanide briquettes or liquid solutions,

To manufacture one tonne of sodium cyanide, the process requires approximately 4,350 Nm3 of air, 0.59 tons of ammonia, 6.66 tons of natural gas, 0.30 tons of sulfuric acid, and 0.90 tons of sodium hydroxide

Consequently, the cost and availability of NaCN are highly sensitive to price fluctuations in natural gas and ammonia feedstocks.

The vulnerability of this supply chain was demonstrated in November 2025, when Sasol, the sole domestic producer of liquid cyanide in South Africa, declared force majeure following a catastrophic breakdown at its ammonia plant, significantly disrupting the country's gold mining industry and forcing reliance on solid cyanide stockpiles

Beyond feedstock dependencies, sodium cyanide is an acutely toxic, GHS Category 1 hazardous material, demanding stringent, specialised logistics governed by the International Cyanide Management Code (ICMC)

To insulate themselves from deep-sea logistics disruptions and freight cost volatility, the industry is seeing a structural shift toward localised production hubs.

For example, Draslovka's expansion to supply Nevada Gold Mines natively, or the development of a 50,000-tonne modular sodium cyanide plant in Egypt, leverages existing domestic natural gas and ammonia networks to secure reagent supply directly for regional mining operations, bypassing maritime chokepoints entirely

10. Alumina Refining: Caustic Soda Dynamics

The processing of bauxite ore into alumina (aluminium oxide) via the Bayer process highlights yet another critical reagent dependency: caustic soda (sodium hydroxide, NaOH).

In the initial digestion phase of the Bayer process, finely ground bauxite is subjected to elevated temperatures (150°C to 270°C) and pressures in a highly concentrated caustic soda solution.

The strong alkali selectively dissolves the alumina content to form sodium aluminate, while leaving insoluble iron oxides and silica to be filtered out as waste "red mud"

The Bayer process is exceptionally reagent-intensive. The global average consumption is approximately 100 kilograms of caustic soda per tonne of alumina produced, though this varies significantly based on the reactive silica content of the specific bauxite ore, which consumes caustic soda to form unwanted sodium-aluminium-silicate desilication products (DSP)

Because alumina production occurs at a massive scale, surpassing 147 million tonnes globally in 2024, the aluminium industry stands as the single largest end-user of caustic soda, accounting for over 20% of global demand (representing 57.0% of the market share for liquid lye).

The vulnerability of the caustic soda supply chain is rooted in its manufacturing method.

Sodium hydroxide is produced alongside chlorine via the electrolysis of brine in the chlor-alkali process. This electrochemical conversion is immensely energy-intensive; modern membrane cell technologies consume between 2,200 and 2,700 kWh per metric ton of caustic soda

Consequently, caustic soda production costs are inextricably linked to regional electricity prices. When global energy markets experience extreme volatility—such as the 40% to 60% spikes in European and Asian natural gas futures triggered by Middle Eastern instability and LNG suspensions—the cash costs of operating chlor-alkali plants surge dramatically

This energy-driven margin compression forces producers to raise prices or curtail output, directly inflating the operating expenses of downstream alumina refineries and exposing the broader aluminium market to cascading power-cost shocks.

11. Reagent Brittleness Index (RBI) & Confidence-Adjusted Risk

The cascading impacts of the 2026 supply shocks underscore the absolute necessity of moving beyond traditional resource evaluations to systematically assess chemical supply chain risks. The Reagent Brittleness Index (RBI) provides a 100-point scoring framework to quantify these vulnerabilities.

Within the RBI framework, a critical distinction must be drawn between Raw Risk and Confidence-Adjusted Risk.

Raw Risk represents the theoretical, inherent vulnerability of a specific asset based purely on its flowsheet and geographic location. It scores an operation based on absolute physical dependencies:

What is the exact tonnage of sulphuric acid required per tonne of cathode?

What percentage of elemental sulphur must transit a contested maritime chokepoint to reach the facility?

How concentrated is the supplier base for a highly specific solvent extractant?

A high Raw Risk score indicates an asset whose operational continuity is highly leveraged to fragile, external chemical supply lines.

Confidence-Adjusted Risk, however, incorporates an epistemological discount based on the quality, transparency, and observability of the underlying supply chain data.

In opaque markets, such as the spot procurement of reagents in Central Africa or the sourcing agreements for proprietary rare-earth extractants, analysts frequently lack verifiable, real-time data on on-site inventory buffers, exact contractual pricing structures, or specific supplier identities.

When the evidentiary baseline relies on industry averages, estimated storage capacities, or generalised trade flow assumptions rather than audited corporate disclosures, the RBI applies a "Confidence Discount."

This discount penalises the Raw Score to reflect the margin of error inherent in poor data environments. Therefore, an asset may have a high Raw Risk due to its known reliance on imported acid, but its Confidence-Adjusted Risk score will be lower, reflecting that unobservable mitigations (such as undisclosed localised stockpiling or unannounced supply diversification) may exist, making the worst-case assessment less definitive.

The important point is not that every variable is perfectly observable. Rather, the architecture of the measurement framework allows analysts to isolate where data opacity specifically inflates risk. As supply chain transparency improves, the gap between Raw Risk and Confidence-Adjusted Risk will narrow, providing a clearer baseline for asset valuation.

12. What to Watch Next

As the mining sector grapples with the permanent reality of constrained chemical inputs, the industry is forced to adapt its strategic positioning.

The era of assuming frictionless, infinite access to cheap industrial reagents is definitively over. So must be the valuations that are aligned to those obsolete conditions

Analysts and operators must closely monitor several evolving dynamics that will dictate the future viability of marginal mineral assets.

First, vertical integration will become a premium differentiator. Mining operations that invest heavily in captive acid-generating facilities, elemental sulphur recovery units, or on-site chlor-alkali cells will insulate themselves from merchant market volatility.

Joint ventures, such as Fitzroy Minerals utilising third-party SX-EW infrastructure to bypass the capital intensity of establishing new, acid-constrained processing circuits, will likely become more prevalent

Companies with internal reagent security, such as Ivanhoe Mines, which generates massive byproduct acid, will command higher valuation multiples than those exposed to spot-market procurement.

Second, the geopolitical weaponisation of reagents will intensify. As demonstrated by China's sulphuric acid export ban, nations possessing massive downstream refining capacity will increasingly leverage bulk chemicals to protect domestic industries and exert pressure on international supply chains. Mining jurisdictions must secure bilateral trade agreements for chemical inputs alongside the physical off-take of the refined metals.

Finally, necessity will accelerate technological substitution. To reduce reliance on massive volumes of sulphuric acid and hazardous sodium cyanide, the industry will allocate significant R&D capital to alternative hydrometallurgical pathways. Innovations in direct lithium extraction (DLE), advanced bio-leaching utilising engineered microbial cultures, and the commercialisation of benign, biodegradable frothers and collectors to replace petrochemical-derived xanthates will advance rapidly

Operations that successfully implement flowsheet modifications to reduce overall chemical intensity per tonne of metal recovered will possess the ultimate competitive advantage in a chemically constrained future.

The illusion has finally cracked. For decades, the mining industry fixated on geological reserves while treating sulphuric acid, sodium cyanide and organophosphorus extractants as mere background consumables.

In the first half of 2026, the Strait of Hormuz and China’s acid export ban ripped away the veil: modern metallurgy is chemically hostage.

The bottleneck in the energy transition is no longer how much metal sits in the ground; it is who can reliably secure its end state utility, the reagents required to liberate it.

Geological scarcity has been overtaken by chemical and geopolitical vulnerability. From this point forward, the most valuable mining assets will not be those with the largest deposits, but those with the most resilient, vertically integrated, or geographically secure chemical supply chains.

The invisible constriction is now visible, and it will redraw the cost curves, valuations, and strategic map of the entire critical minerals industry.

Sulphur & Acid Supply Risk Dashboard: Critical Mining Assets

Mine=Mutanda

Glencore $GLNCY Copper/Cobalt

Raw: 85 → Adj Score: 70

Sulphur supply dependent on African logistical corridors; highly exposed to Middle Eastern sulphur shocks.

Mine=Centinela

Antofagasta ($ANTO) • Copper

Raw: 80 → Adj Score: 70

Sulphuric acid storage buffer is estimated to be heavily reliant on seaborne acid imports into Chile.

Mine=Weda Bay

Tsingshan/Eramet ($ERA.PA) • Nickel

Raw: 90 → Adj Score: 85

HPAL operations require 10-12 tonnes of sulphur per tonne of MHP; absolute reliance on imported Middle Eastern sulphur.

Mine=White Mesa

Energy Fuels ($UUUU) • Uranium/REE

Raw: 65 → Adj Score: 45

REE extractant supply is heavily constrained globally (Supplier diversified - Low Confidence).

Mine=Kamoa-Kakula

Ivanhoe Mines ($IVN) • Copper

Raw: 35 → Adj Score: 30

Low risk due to internal 1,350 tpd high-strength sulphuric acid byproduct generation.

Mine=Kalgoorlie

Lynas Rare Earths ($LYC.AX) • REE

Raw: 75 → Adj Score: 65

High vulnerability to local power grid infrastructure failures, disrupting continuous chemical processing.

Mine=Inkai

Kazatomprom ($KAP) • Uranium

Raw: 85 → Adj Score: 80

Acute domestic sulphuric acid deficit restricting ISR production targets; dedicated acid plant not online until late 2026.

Hydrometallurgy Reagent Risk Comparison

Chile SX-EW (Copper)

• Primary Reagent: Sulphuric Acid (H₂SO₄) • Process Intensity: 1.5 – 2.0 tonnes H₂SO₄ per tonne of Cu Cathode • Global Import Reliance: Chile imports >1,000,000 tonnes annually, heavily dependent on China (37% of imports) • Recent Cost Impact: Spot prices for delivered acid in Mejillones skyrocketed +44% in one month

Indonesia HPAL (Nickel) • Primary Reagent: Elemental Sulphur (for H₂SO₄) • Process Intensity: 10 – 12 tonnes of Sulphur per tonne of Ni in MHP • Global Import Reliance: 75% to 80% of Indonesian sulphur imported directly from Middle East via Strait of Hormuz • Recent Cost Impact: Spot sulphur prices delivered rose from $500 to >$800–$1,000/tonne, adding $4,000/t to Ni cost

Kazatomprom ISR (Uranium) • Primary Reagent: Sulphuric Acid (H₂SO₄) • Process Intensity: Highly variable based on aquifer geology • Global Import Reliance: High domestic reliance; consumed 1.85 million tonnes in 2025 • Recent Cost Impact: 2026 production guidance downgraded by 10% (32,777 tU to 29,697 tU) due to acid deficits

Gold Cyanidation • Primary Reagent: Sodium Cyanide (NaCN) • Process Intensity: 25 – 50 grams NaCN per gram of Gold • Global Import Reliance: Moderate. Localised production hubs (e.g., US, Egypt) bypass maritime transit • Recent Cost Impact: High sensitivity to natural gas and ammonia feedstock prices for HCN precursors

From guidance to reality: acid shortages forced Kazatomprom to cut ~5,000 tU and Indonesian HPAL producers to idle up to 50% of capacity. This is the new cost-curve reality. Note, Kazatomprom are urgently building an acid production online status is hard to ascertain, but maybe by early 2027

User:Conservative didn't bother to "collect as much relevant data as possible" in his critical thinking before, during, and after Andy allowed him to spam Conservapedia with his racist and liberal claptrap. [38] RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 16:59, May 16, 2026 (EDT)
  • Question: Does this mean labor productivity is 2,000% higher in Japan for the same work that results in an inferior product? In real terms it means a $3 product in China costs $6,000 in the Collective West.
 

Defense spending and the military-industrial complex

Comment: Wow. They don't even try to hide it anymore, and speak openly about finding new loopholes.
“ You know, for all the people out there going, 'I hate communism'. We have the most communist system in the world where we take the taxpayers money and we put it through the military and flow it back in. It's a government funded economy. That's it. And it's not designed to produce weapons for the war fighter. It's designed to enrich people. We are incapable of quick turnaround. Literally incapable. We have so many rules, regulations, etc. That's not the issue you could work on, you know, on regulations. It's the way the system has worked. It's the design. It's the underlying sentiment. The defense industry doesn't exist to protect you. People should know that. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, these aren't people that are pro-American. They like to fly the American flag and place it over everything and say, "We're here for you." They're not. They're here to rob you blind and give you the worst weapons possible. If you think the Patriot missiles is good, look at its performance. It sucks. None of our weapons work. None of our weapons work the way they're supposed to. They are overhyped. And then we send our men and women into harm's way and then where shit goes wrong and pilots get shot down and equipment breaks and people run out of ammunition. The system's broke, judge, and there's no way you can spend your way out of this. The $1.5 Trillion, I promise you this, we will become weaker if we put that money into the system because none of that money will be used where it needs to be used. It will all go into the pockets of the defense industry. ”

Interest rates and inflation

I guess US aggression in ME is just a 'special military operation'.
  • Inflation at +4.2% y-o-y.
  • Every operational attack on Iran costs about $400 million.

Arms control

"Trump is offering, in exchange, new nuclear arms deals with Russia..."
Comment: Of course, inducing a manufactured crisis is not necessarily the way to produce leverage or create good faith and trust.

AI news

  • "MIT researchers have shown that ChatGPT tends to create a phenomenon they call “delusional spiraling.” You make a proposition and AI agrees. You make it again, and it agrees even more, backing it up with arguments that are flat-out false. From the paper’s abstract: “ ‘AI psychosis,’ or ‘delusional spiraling’ is an emerging phenomenon where AI chatbot users find themselves dangerously confident in outlandish beliefs after extended chatbot conversations.”
Comment: As to be expected, grassroots opposition to corporate & technocratic greed is now considered an Axis of Evil plot. RobSAbnormal is fine. Stupid isn't. 09:56, April 29, 2026 (EDT)
Comment: I think we have enough evidence right here in Conservapedia to say this is true.
"...Amazon returned 2,538x the original investment. If SpaceX were to do the same, its Market Cap would be $4,442 trillion, or 36 times the current total world GDP. That is absolutely not going to happen. It’s insane."

Hantavirus updates

MAGA (or what remains of it)

 
Note: "The most beautiful word in the dictionary" is killing farmers & the MAGA movement.
 
Acrtually 3 crisis: Higher fertilizer costs, higher fuel costs, and forecasted drought.
Note: No surprise. It's the bibliography for all User:Conservative's foreign policy hate screeds he's been publishing for 4 years which have aided in destroying MAGA & Conservapedia.
 
Yep. America is on its way to being "the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future" - especially with Trump's impeachment and the Democrats in control.
Personal note: What's amazing to me is this stuff, which I've been trying to talk about for 15 years, is now considered "news". The sad part is, rather than address these issues, you have to debate the issue of "betrayal" with Trump cultists first.
"There’s an overlooked niche in the historic coalition Republicans must defend in November that could prove pivotal to the party’s future: young conservative women. And some, like Christian conservative influencer Savanna Faith Stone, say “promises that were made have not been delivered on at all.” Now just months out from the midterms — with the young female right taking center stage at Turning Point USA’s Women’s Leadership Summit this weekend — some of the movement’s biggest female voices say they’re “not really identifying with the MAGA party anymore,”
The solution for the "MAGA cult" is simple: invoke the conservative values of ignorance & stubbornness which User:Conservative insists Andy shares with him. For example: the fact that the United States outranks Russia 150 to 1 in the number of gay bathhouses, under Just War Theory, justifies $350 Billion in US taxpayer aid to Ukraine. The logic in simple. Conservapedia has debated it to death, rendered an opinion and its judgment. It's matter of record. And accountability of one's words is a paramount conservative value.
Comments?
"Daniel, previously the editor-at-large at The American Conservative, is currently the editor of Modern Age, a conservative academic quarterly journal. He’s also a Distinguished Fellow in Conservative Thought at the Heritage Foundation and a columnist for The Spectator — and one of the few Trump supporters allowed to write op-eds for the NYT."

Religious liberty news

User:RobSmith's essays

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